7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)
No changes for today’s update. High pressure southwest of the region sends a warm/dry westerly air flow across southern New England today, a very nice late summer day. A disturbance dives out of Canada and across the region the first half of Monday, possibly triggering some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. This will be followed by another push of high pressure from Canada with pleasant weather Tuesday into midweek.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early morning clouds Cape Cod & Islands with a few showers crossing the Islands, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm morning-midday. Clearing north to south afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind W 10-15 MPH shifting to N with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy valley, swamp, and bog fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50, coolest interior valleys. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)
High pressure surface and aloft will provide fair weather and above normal temperatures for the final 3 days of summer September 20-22. High pressure gives way to an approaching trough from the west, slowly, and while still mild it will start to turn more unsettled later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)
Staying with a slow transition, still on the milder side, but better opportunities for showers at times heading into late September as the jet stream sinks to the south to send more disturbances this way while a high pressure ridge tries to hang on to the south and east of New England.

8:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
A weak cold front approach the region today and pass through tonight and very early Sunday. This front will produce plenty of cloudiness but limited shower activity, although a few of the showers that form south of Boston during the late night hours may be on the heavy side. High pressure builds in Sunday, but it will be a warm day. In fact it will be one of those instances because of today’s cloud cover and tomorrow’s modified air mass that the air behind a cold front will actually be warmer than the air ahead of it for most of the region. A disturbance will cross New England Monday morning and midday and drag a stronger cold front through. This system will bring a shower threat as well. High pressure builds in behind that with great weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing showers mid-day on. More humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 5-15 MPH inland, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of passing showers, trending toward the South Coast where a few may be heavy. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Clouds and showers may linger Cape Cod and Islands early, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm morning-midday. Gradual clearing north to south afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind W 10-15 MPH shifting to N with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy valley, swamp, and bog fog. Lows 45-52. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50, coolest interior valleys. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)
High pressure surface and aloft will provide fair weather and above normal temperatures and, as it looks now, will keep tropical activity to the south and east of New England. The end of the period may cool slightly as a new high pressure area arrives via eastern Canada. Rainfall will be very limited and possibly non-existent during this period. We may need to watch for increased fire danger as we’ve been rather dry since the start of August.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)
This remains a lower than average confidence forecast due to still some unknown potential tropical weather factors and their direct or indirect impact on the larger scale pattern. For now, going to delay the onset of cooling and keep an overall mild to warm outlook with better opportunities for showers at times. Many stages of fine-tuning to come.

7:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
Variable temperature pattern, lack of rain, the themes for this 5-day period. High pressure from Canada brings a northeast air flow and cool/dry air today, then shifts offshore for a more humid, warmer southern flow ahead of a cold front Saturday. This front will cross the region early Sunday, but doesn’t have much cooler air behind it, so Sunday will be warm still, while being a little less humid than Saturday. But another disturbance will cross northern New England by early Monday and drag its cold front through from north to south, and cooler air will return courtesy high pressure from eastern Canada early next week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing shower mainly late-day. More humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower or thunderstorm. Moderately humid. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower possible. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
High pressure will be dominant at upper levels through the period with surface high pressure shifting southward allowing temperatures to warm back to above normal. We’ll need to watch for possible tropical activity near or off the coast, or south of New England, later in the period, as we will enter a pattern that makes our area more vulnerable to being impacted by it.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
Pattern remains warm with high pressure aloft and surface high pressure to south at first, but disturbances coming along the jet stream as well as potential tropical moisture near the US East Coast will work on shifting the pattern to wetter and not quite as warm by mid or late period. This remains low confidence so there will be a lot to work out as these days get closer.

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
Transition from the feel of summer yesterday to the feel of fall occurs today as a cold front slips southward through the region, triggered showers and a few thunderstorms, and an additional period of rain in some areas as a disturbance rides along the front. This was the scenario talked about as a possibility several days ago (recall watching the September 12-13 period for a slow front and possible disturbance). Luckily the unsettled weather will all occur today and as high pressure builds out of eastern Canada Friday we’ll have a bright and brisk fall-like day as we count down through the late days of summer. And that summer feel will make a bit of a comeback this weekend as we get back into a southerly air flow as high pressure slides to the east of New England Saturday and a westerly flow Sunday behind a weak cold front which will come through as it trails low pressure passing north of the region Saturday night. The new high pressure area that builds in Sunday will be smaller and centered southwest of the area, hence the westerly wind, then join up with the departed high to the south to keep it fairly warm, but this will allow yet another cold front to slip southward out of Canada early Monday and high pressure behind that will drop the temperatures again during Monday as our temperature roller coaster goes on.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms favoring central and southern MA as well as eastern CT and RI morning. General showers or a period of rain midday and first half of afternoon, favoring MA/CT/RI. Highs 66-73 early morning, then temperatures falling through the 60s reaching 56-63 by late-day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH near the South Coast early otherwise shifting to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm mainly late-day. More humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible early, then partly cloudy. Moderately humid. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower possible. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
High pressure will be dominant at upper levels through the period with surface high pressure shifting from north of the early at first, when it will be cooler/drier, to south of the region later, when it will turn warmer and somewhat more humid.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)
Pattern remains warm with high pressure aloft and surface high pressure to south at first, but disturbances coming along the jet stream as well as potential tropical moisture near the US East Coast will work on shifting the pattern to wetter and not quite as warm by mid or late period. This is low confidence in terms of any details so there will be a lot to work out as these days get closer.

6:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
The feel of summer will be in full force today as we’ll sit at the northeastern corner of a large wedge of warm to hot air under a ridge of high pressure. Low pressure tracking across the St. Lawrence Valley from west to east dragged a warm front through, introducing this air to the region, which will hang around until a cold front sags southeastward through the area tonight and early Thursday, slowing its progress as a wave of low pressure ridges along it west to east. So Thursday is a transition day back to cooler, but will be somewhat unsettled. A stronger push of high pressure from eastern Canada will send the unsettled weather on its way and provide nice weather during Friday. This high will sink to the southeast and the return flow around it will drag the front back to the north and return the warm and more humid air to the region Saturday, which will once again be pushed away by Sunday as another cold front, though weaker than the first, comes through. So Sunday will be a nice day, drier, but still on the warm side.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers early morning. Isolated showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms late-day. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of a shower early. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N around dawn.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers, favoring areas south of I-90. Less humid. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm mainly late-day. More humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible early, then partly cloudy. Moderately humid. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
Weak cold front passes by early September 16 and high pressure moves north of the region with a cool-down to start next week, then the high sinks south with a warm-up to follow. Mainly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)
The opposite of the 6-10, starting warm, ending cooler and possibly unsettled as we watch high pressure offshore, a trough approaching from the west, and potential tropical moisture near the East Coast.

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
Onshore flow ahead of a warm front has delivered ocean moisture in the form of low cloudiness which may be tough for the sun to burn though, as there will be high & middle clouds above this as a warm front approaches today, so don’t look for as much sun as I previously had indicated we could expected. Not the best forecast there. Anyway, shower activity with this front will be limited and mostly north of this area tonight and early Wednesday. Very warm and humid air does overtake the region Wednesday with a mid summer feel. A cold front will sink southward across the region Wednesday night and early Thursday, maybe producing a shower or thunderstorm, and the front will not sink too far south on Thursday so cloudiness may linger with a cooler day than Wednesday. A push of high pressure from Canada will bring more sun and cooler air still for Friday, but this high will quickly be offshore by Saturday morning and we’ll see a quick warm-up Saturday with an approaching but weakening cold front possibly causing a late-day shower or thunderstorm in limited locations.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower. Increasingly humid. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 83-90, a bit cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm South Coast early. Less humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW late.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52 Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. More humid. Slight risk of a late day shower or thunderstorm. Highs 75-82. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)
A new high pressure area arrives from the west with warm but drier air September 15. Above normal temperatures continue September 16-18 with high pressure dominating. A front in the region at the end of the period may trigger showers with higher humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)
Overall dry with above normal temperatures as high pressure remains the dominant player.

7:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
High pressure brings fair and seasonably cool weather to start the week, then a warm front brings a risk of showers early Wednesday, opening the door to the feel of summer during Wednesday and into Thursday as a cold front is slow to make its way through the region. Finally by Friday, high pressure in eastern Canada pushes another batch of cooler air into the region.
Forecast details…
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SE to S 5-10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers early. More humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW late.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
A weak cold front will wash out as it crosses the region September 14 which will be a mild to warm day with just a risk of a shower. High pressure builds at the surface and aloft and brings generally fair weather and above normal temperatures for the balance of the period, though a trough or cold front coming along later in the period and high pressure from Canada may cool it down by about September 18.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)
Another surge of warmth from dominant high pressure followed by another late-period cool-down, depending on the timing of a jet stream disturbance.

7:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
High pressure will be the dominant player in our weather for 4 out of the next 5 days, with the only interruption being Wednesday as a low pressure area moving west to east across the region sends its warm front / cold front combo through with some shower activity. During the fair weather days, the temperature and wind will be determined by the position of high pressure, the first area of which will start out north of the region today then sink southward over the area Monday and just to the south Tuesday, with a second high from eastern Canada influencing the weather by Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 46-53. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SE to S 5-10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
High pressure should be strong enough for fair weather September 13 but need to watch a boundary to the south. A front from the west comes through with a slight risk of a shower September 14 but overall the September 14-17 period looks dry with above normal temperatures as high pressure dominates surface and aloft.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
Brief interruptions with shower threats early and again late period in an otherwise mainly dry and warmer than average pattern as high pressure holds control much of the time.

10:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
Dorian is not done yet, giving Nova Scotia a decent hit today. Nova Scotia averages 1 hurricane landfall every 3 years (of course that can be very uneven, as that is a long-term average). Clusters of landfalls there have been observed at various times in weather observation history, seemingly related to large scale patterns, such as the AMO. And yes, Nova Scotia gets more landfalls than New England. It actually makes perfect sense if you look at the average hurricane path through the Atlantic Basin. Simple statistics. For New England, we’re not completely done with the impacts from the passing of the hurricane, with rough surf continuing through today into tonight before subsiding Sunday. Cloudiness has been dominant through the morning so far (10AM writing this) with the rain shield sitting over part of Cape Cod earlier in the morning, since having moved out. The drier air is in the process of eroding the lingering lower clouds as the higher deck of clouds from the storm’s circulation moves away. So the theme will be increasing sun as we get to and into afternoon, but still some cloudiness as well, but later in the day or definitely by tonight more clouds will show up from the northwest in advance of a cold front that will drop through the region tonight, producing nothing more than a brief passing shower in a few locations. This will be followed by the arrival of high pressure, bringing great weather to the region Sunday through Tuesday, with local variations based on wind direction and speed relative to the high’s position. By Wednesday, a trough arrives from the west with a warm front / cold front combo, lots of clouds, and a risk of showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clearing late morning-midday. Cloud/sun mix this afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty early, shifting to NW and gradually diminishing later.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a brief passing shower. Lows 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 46-53. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SE to S 5-10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
High pressure to the north with fair weather expected September 12-13 but may have to watch a boundary not too far south that could mess up this forecast. Front pushes through September 14 but shower risk looks minimal as high pressure ridging builds aloft and results in dry/warmer weather for the balance of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
Overall pattern will be dominated by west to east flow with a mean ridge in the eastern US, but a disturbance may cause a few showers and possible thunderstorms around mid period. Predominant weather will be fair with above normal temperatures.

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
Hurricane Dorian will accelerate northeastward today through Saturday, the center making its closest pass about 200 miles southeast of Cape Cod early Saturday (around or a little after dawn). The hurricane will be undergoing transition to non-tropical during this trip, and when that happens, its coverage expands. This track and expansion will allow the remaining outer rain bands to make it to the South Coast of New England this afternoon and push northward through tonight, with the main rain area pushing across RI and southeastern MA overnight and first thing Saturday morning, before everything moves offshore and away. While a few of these showers some more likely some of the rain from the main area may be on the heavy side, the main impact from Dorian will be large swells and rough surf along the coast, where splash-over and some minor flooding is possible. Behind that will be a gusty northerly breeze and drier conditions for the remainder of Saturday, but in the evening or nighttime there may be a passing shower from a cold front dropping south from Canada. High pressure builds in with great weather Sunday and Monday, and this high sinks to the south with fair weather but a warm-up by Tuesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of showers arrive south to north during the afternoon, best chance of heaviest near the South Coast. Highs 67-73. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives RI and southeastern MA, showers to the northwest. Lows 56-63. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH southeastern MA and RI with higher gusts, perhaps to 50 MPH or greater Cape Cod and Islands.
SATURDAY: Cloudy early morning with rain and showers ending west to east. Sun and passing clouds remainder of day. Highs 68-75. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty early, shifting to NW and gradually diminishing later.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a brief passing shower. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 46-53. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
West to east flow dominates. Cold front slides through September 11 with a shower risk. High pressure builds in with fair weather September 12-13. Weak front approaches with slight shower risk September 14. Fair weather returns September 15.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
West to east flow continues. One or two minor systems may bring shower threats, but the overall pattern looks fairly dry with temperatures not too far from normal.

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
Minor adjustment in this blog update, slowing the arrival of the cloud shield of Hurricane Dorian, which will continue its track just off the Carolinas (bringing the eastern portions of those states significant impact from wind, coastal flooding, and heavy rain) during today, then accelerating northeastward while losing tropical characteristics Friday-Saturday. The center’s closest pass to New England will be about 200-250 miles southeast of Cape Cod about dawn Saturday. Large ocean swells and rough surf are the certainties. It is likely that rain will get into southeastern areas, with a period of moderate to heavy rain possible Cape Cod & Islands while lighter rain can get back up into the I-95 corridor. This will arrive Friday evening, peak Friday night / early hours of Saturday, then clear out quickly around or just after dawn Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will see a gusty north to northwest wind behind the departing storm as high pressure starts to build in. A cold front will pass through the region north to south Saturday night, pretty much without any notice, and high pressure will continue to build in during Sunday and then overhead Monday with some great late summer weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Brightest sun north, filtered sun south. Highs 70-77. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 56-63. Wind light variable
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 67-73. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southeastern MA. Lows 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod & Islands.
SATURDAY: Cloudy early morning with any rain ending, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, shifting to W and diminishing late.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a brief passing shower. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-53. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
West to east flow dominates. High pressure sinks south with fair weather and a quick warm-up September 10. Cold front slides through September 11 with a shower risk. High pressure builds in with fair weather September 12-13. Weak front approaches with slight shower risk September 14.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)
West to east flow continues. One or two minor systems may bring shower threats, but the overall pattern looks fairly dry with temperatures not too far from normal overall.

6:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)
The feel of summer will be with us today, warmth and humidity dominating, but it will all be shut off quickly when a cold front slices through the region from northwest to southeast later in the afternoon and early evening, timed with max heating so that we should see a fairly solid line of showers and embedded thunderstorms, with any of the thunderstorms potentially being strong. Behind this, cooler/drier weather will flow into the region as the front pushes off to the southeast. High pressure building north of the region will create a northwest to north wind Thursday and a north to northeast wind Friday. All the while, Hurricane Dorian, in a weakened but still significant form, will be tracking parallel to southeastern US coast from just off northern Florida to near the Outer Banks of NC, before it starts to accelerate northeastward, eventually passing about 200 to 250 miles southeast of Cape Cod Friday night and early Saturday. Saturday’s weather here will improve rapidly as any wet weather that got into southeastern areas departs quickly and clearing takes place. A cold front will drop out of Canada and across the region Saturday night and early Sunday and deliver a fresh cooler air mass for Sunday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog early morning. Sunshine mid morning into mid afternoon. A deck of clouds arrives west to east mid to late afternoon with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms, with any storms potentially strong. Humid. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog until late evening. Less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain by late-day, favoring southeastern parts of the region. Highs 66-73. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts toward Cape Cod.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southeastern MA. Lows 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod & Islands.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, shifting to W and diminishing late.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a brief passing shower. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
High pressure dominates September 9-11 with a slow warm-up. Warm/humid but with late showers/storms possible September 12 as a front arrives. Front may stall with a chance of rain end of period as it turns cooler.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
Dry weather returns early to mid period, cooler then warming up. Risk of more unsettled weather later in the period in a west to east jet stream flow.

7:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
High pressure builds in today with very nice weather. As the high sinks to the south and a cold front approaches from the northwest, we get a quick shot of early September heat and humidity Wednesday, but the day will end with a few showers and possible thunderstorms from that front, which will move through overnight, introducing much cooler air for Thursday and Friday. However during this time, Hurricane Dorian will be in the process of its re-curve and acceleration to the north then northeast, a process that will bring its center about 200 miles southeast of New England Friday night and early Saturday before it accelerates away. The impacts from this storm will be a cloud shield that spreads across the region Thursday, thickens into Friday when some rainfall may get into parts of southeastern New England. While it’s still a few days away it does look like the bulk of the rainfall will miss the region. The other main impact will be large ocean swells for several days, and rough surf mainly during the shortly after the closest pass of the system. Late summer beach visitor should exercise caution late this week as some waves can be very large and the rip current risk will be very high. As far as the weather, any rain that does glance the region Friday will be gone by first thing Saturday, which turns out to be a nice but breezy day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain by late-day, favoring southeastern parts of the region. Highs 66-73. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts toward Cape Cod.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southeastern MA. Lows 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod & Islands.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
High pressure will dominate this period but the weather will change as the center of the high shifts, starting out north of the region with pleasant and dry air, then drifting more to the east before sinking to the south, turning the air flow onshore by mid period then eventually more southerly to westerly later in the period, with increasing warmth and a little humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
A few showers and brief cooling possible early in the period, a quick warm up, a few more showers, then a cool down later in the period as disturbances come along in a jet stream near the region.

6:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
A quick warm front / cold front combination will cross the region for this Labor Day and we will lose our dry weather to showers and a few thunderstorms. The day will not be washed out, but any time after mid morning is open to passing periods of wet weather, lasting through evening before drier air arrives overnight. High pressure brings a nice day Tuesday, warming up with a feel of summer coming back as many more people head back to school / college / work. A bit of a cruel joke from mother nature there, and that summer feel will last well into Wednesday as well, in fact for some, a run at 90 is possible as a southwesterly air flow grabs some heat to the south and pulls it our way. Another cold front will put an end to that by Thursday but ahead of it may come some Wednesday evening showers and thunderstorms. As we get to the end of the week, that front will settle just south of the region Thursday with somewhat cooler/drier air moving in, although sun that starts that day will probably be gone by the end of it as a larger shield of cloudiness associated with Dorian starts to move in. Now don’t go thinking that we’re going to be hit with Hurricane Dorian head on. So far, all indications continue to be that the hurricane, after the center barely staying offshore of FL/GA/SC and possibly scraping NC, will track northeastward and its center, in the process of becoming non-tropical (a transition that we often see at that spot) will pass well to the southeast of New England. But when these storms go through that transition they usually expand quite a bit in size and this expansion certainly will put southeastern New England under its cloud shield. The question is whether or not any of the rainfall gets up into the region and if so, how much would make it. We’ll answer that going forward, but for now, going to go with a period of wet weather arriving during Friday, favoring southeastern locations. Of more certainty are the large ocean swells and rough surf impacting the coastline later in the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 70-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southeastern parts of the region. Highs 66-73. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts toward Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
Based on current thoughts, any impact from Dorian on September 7 should be early rain possible South Coast / Cape Cod, pulling away quickly, but lingering large swells and rough surf along the coast, with dry weather and on the cooler side with a gusty north breeze. Again at day 6 this is not a super high confidence forecast so details will be added as the outcome of the situation is more well known. Either way, the back half of the September 7-8 weekend will be pleasant, cool to mild and dry. September 9-11 we should see high pressure centered to the north and northeast of New England, like a couple other recent episodes, and a northeast to east air flow to start the period, then turning more southeast to south as the high slips off to the southeast. This would bring generally fair weather, starting out drier/cooler then transitioning to a bit more humidity and warmth later by the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
The first few days of the period look warmer than average with mostly fair weather as high pressure takes up residence to the south of the region and sends in a westerly air flow while the jet stream lifts to the north over a flat ridge of high pressure. A trough coming along from Canada later in the period could cause some showers then a transition to cooler weather.

8:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
Welcome to September, and a blog update that is essentially identical to the one written on the final day of August, because everything to me looks the same as it did yesterday. High pressure to the north sends cooler northeast winds into the region today with fair weather. A warm front brings a threat of some wet weather mainly later Monday, then the feel of summer returns Tuesday-Wednesday. A cold front passes by Wednesday night and settles to the south of the region by Thursday, which is the first of 2 days we’ll have to watch for indirect and a much lower risk of more direct impact from Dorian after it finishes a sweeping turn along the US Southeast Coast (center staying just offshore except possibly NC briefly as it stands now). At this point I think we’d just be seeing cloudiness move in during the day Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 71-78. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
September 6 would be the most likely day to be impacted by any rainfall from the passage of Dorian offshore. A New England landfall is highly unlikely. The storm may be far enough offshore that much of the rain remains over the ocean as well. Will monitor the progress. Of more certainty is large ocean swells and rough surf affecting both the southern and eastern shores of southern New England September 6 into the September 7-8 weekend before settling down. The weekend weather is likely to be pleasant, seasonably cool to mild and dry. Mainly fair weather and ocean-modified seasonably cool air will be around September 9-10 with high pressure centered north to northeast of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
High pressure sinks to the south over the Atlantic and a southerly to westerly flow develops for much of this period with a northward-displaced jet stream. This is a mainly fair and above normal temperature pattern for this area, and if it came to fruition would bring some very nice weather for the dwindling days of summer, pre-equinox, which would be just over a week away by the end of this period.