C-19 Chat Post – May 24 2020

8:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

Memorial Day Weekend marks the “traditional” start of the summer season as far as tourism goes, ending with Labor Day Weekend in early September. There’s some sad irony in place this year with how the calenar happens to line up during a time when there are current and probable ongoing restrictions in place for many tourist activities due to the pandemic situation, and that is that for the first time in several years, the “season” is the longest possible, with the earliest possible Memorial Day (May 25) and latest possible Labor Day (September 7). But regardless of the situation, weather will still be happening, and knowing it will be necessary. As far as Memorial Day goes, traditional observances have either been cancelled or greatly modified this year, but I ask you to please pause at some point during this weekend to remember the brave souls who fought for your freedom and did not come home. We should never lose sight of that. Onward to the weather, we see no big changes in the generally outlook, with low pressure trying to make a run into the region today only to be thwarted by high pressure to our north, which will be strengthening against an already fairly weak low. Nevertheless the low had enough push to throw its shield of clouds across our area along with some pockets of shower activity. The shower threat, while concentrated to the south, exists anywhere, but will then retreat to the south during the course of the afternoon. All the while, a frontal boundary passing through the region this morning and midday will erase the lingering mild feel leftover from yesterday’s summer preview, and replace it with a much cooler maritime polar air mass which you will definitely feel arriving, if it hasn’t already made it to your location by the time your read this. However don’t expect a deck of low clouds and fog to plague the region Sunday, which will be a bright day due to enough dry air, but cool due to the air mass in place. As high pressure starts to sink southeastward, by Memorial Day it will have moved enough to create a southeasterly air flow which will tap into a bit more moisture and at that time may send some cloudiness in from the ocean, while at the same time we see a disturbance from the northwest sending some of its own cloudiness into the region. At this time keeping the forecast for Monday dry as well, but I can’t say the threat of brief rain is zero either. As we approach the middle of next week, high pressure will have positioned itself to pump warmer air and the feel of summer back in.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning-midday with spotty rain, favoring southern areas. Increasing sun north to south mid afternoon on. Highs 62-69 morning, falling into the 50s from northeast to southwest during the day. Wind SW-NW 5-15 MPH early, shifting to NE from north to south and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-43 interior with coolest in valley locations, 43-48 coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH coast but near calm interior.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 40-47. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 62-67 coast, 68-73 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-55 interior, 55-60 coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)

Temperatures should spend a few more days above normal in the final days of May and may turn considerably cooler just in time to welcome June. Timing is obviously suspect that far out, but just the overall trend. A couple frontal boundaries may be in the region any time from May 29 onward to initiate this transition, at which time a couple rounds of showers/t-storms may take place. Will fine-tune going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

A cooler pattern for early June, but rainfall likely to average below normal as well.

C-19 Chat Post – May 23 2020

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

Summer preview today. High pressure will have completed its journey from Canada to southeast of New England, and today the winds come around to mainly a land breeze (southwest), except along the South Coast and especially Cape Cod & the Islands where this wind is still off water. While many areas reach or exceed 80, some for the first time this season, those South Coast locations will not. Everybody turns much cooler Saturday as a frontal boundary drops down from the north and a bit of a squeeze play will be on between a new area of high pressure in eastern Canada and an old low pressure system which has been stuck to our west and south finally trying to make a run at southern New England. It will increase the cloud cover for a time tonight into Saturday and push some of its rain to about the South Coast, but it will really get no further than that before being pushed back to the south by the Canadian high, which will re-grain and retain control through the balance of the Memorial Day Weekend. Sunday will be the coolest day with a continued easterly air flow, which will then relax and turn more southerly on Monday as the high center, like its predecessor, slips to the southeast and will be located east of New England. This process will continue further by next Tuesday when it will feel a bit like summer again for a good portion of the region.

TODAY: Sunshine but increasing high clouds late. Highs 75-85 except 68-75 immediate shoreline and 61-68 South Coast with coolest over the islands. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with a period of rain possible near the South Coast. Partly sunny afternoon with a late-day increase in sun north to south. Highs 62-69 occurring by midday then turning cooler during the afternoon.. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-43 interior with coolest in valley locations, 43-48 coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH coast but near calm interior.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 40-47. Wind calm.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-67 coast, 68-73 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

Temperatures above normal for this 5-day period. High pressure to the southeast of New England should be dominant with dry weather May 27-29, coolest temperatures interior lower elevations at night and coastal areas by day. A frontal boundary should be in the vicinity sometime during the May 30-31 weekend when the risk of showers and thunderstorms will occur.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

A cooling trend for early June, but rainfall likely to average below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – May 22 2020

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

Today and tomorrow it’s high pressure in a position to give a wind that shifts from southerly to westerly, and this is a warm-up for just about everybody. The warm up of course is modified where wind still has to come across ocean water, such as Cape Cod and especially the islands to the south. The usual adjustments in the temperature forecast will be made here. But two spectacular spring days are coming up. The Memorial Day Weekend will have a slightly different mood as we see that dawdling low pressure area to the south try to make a run at us, getting clouds enough Saturday for more cloudiness and perhaps some wet weather into southern areas, but pushed again southward by a new area of high pressure from Canada, but this will keep a generally easterly air flow going for the weekend, which will be cooler than the 2 days that precede it.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73 except cooler south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands as well as a few other coastal locations. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain, mostly morning to midday, favoring the South Coast. Highs 57-64 but may turn cooler coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 interior valleys, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind calm.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65 coast with coolest on Cape Cod & Islands, 65-72 inland. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

A little warmer again during a good portion of this period with dry weather to start then a few opportunities for showers as a frontal system gets closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31-JUNE 3)

Mostly dry overall, couple minor events possible, with temperatures near to slightly below normal for this period.

C-19 Chat Post – May 21 2020

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)

On yesterday’s blog post I gave you a long explanation of how wind direction would have an impact on temperature during this stretch of days when high pressure is in control of the weather. I will not repeat that here because it basically has not changed. The idea is high pressure remains in control of the weather and holds a low pressure area to the south at bay. That low will get a little bit closer by the start of the weekend so that there may be a little more wind and cloudiness than we see before that. But as it stands right now, the next 5 days will be generally dry.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-61 coast, 62-67 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 except cooler south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands as well as a few other coastal locations. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 but may turn cooler coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)

Memorial Day May 25 looks dry. after this a weakening frontal system should get into the area with an increase in humidity and shower chances. Too soon for details.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30-JUNE 2)

No change from the thought process of yesterday with little reliability in medium range guidance and just a general feel for the pattern, will continue with the outlook for near to slightly below average for both temperature and precipitation.

C-19 Chat Post – May 20 2020

7:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

Canadian high pressure will be in control the next few days as it sinks southward across the northeastern US. The transition that takes place in this pattern will be mainly with shifts in wind direction. Today, with the center of the high to the north of the area, it’s a cool northeast wind, which may bring in low clouds from the ocean at times. At the same time the decaying storm system to our southwest will still be trying to send some higher level cloudiness in as well, so it won’t be perfectly sunny all day. The wind will be much lighter Wednesday as the high parks itself overhead. This will be a sunnier day and while inland areas warm up, as this warming takes place closer to the coast a natural sea breeze will kick in, cooling those areas back. Thursday, the high center starts to sink a little more to the south and the gradient wind, while light, will be more from the south, allowing further warming. Still, coastal areas where a wind with a southerly component travels over water will be cooler. By Friday, the center of the high will finally be to the south of New England, and a more westerly wind means that most of the region warms up nicely, but still there are exceptions where even a west wind blows over water before reaching the land, but these are quite limited to places such as outer Cape Cod, west-facing shores of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, and a place like Nahant, for example. These will be your coolest areas on Friday. A peek at the beginning of the weekend shows that a new high will be located in eastern Canada and that the high to the south will have weakened and replaced by a weak low pressure area – the remains of the low currently over the east central US. The high to the north may drive a back-door cold front down the from eastern Canada via Maine and cool the entire area down. What about Arthur? Yup. It’s out there, off the US Southeast Coast, and will be moving away and weakening as it tracks east and eventually southeast, possibly bringing some showery weather to Bermuda the next few days. Buh-bye!

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, with higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-40 interior, 40-45 coastal areas and Boston. Wind NE 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 except cooling back to the 50s coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 except cooler south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands as well as a few other coastal locations. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 but may turn cooler coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

Not a very high confidence forecast on the middle and end of the Memorial Day Weekend Sunday (May 24), which may be cloudy as low pressure to the south, while not strong, tries to press northward while high pressure to the north holds it off. Does rain make it into part of the area? Probably not, but I say that with hesitation because its spring in New England, and model performance, which normally suffers as you go out in time, suffers even more as we continue to lack some data input with fewer planes still in the sky during the pandemic. My current thought-out scenario would allow the high to eventually win out, slide southeastward, and warm the area up somewhat for Memorial Day (May 25). After this, a weakening frontal system from the northwest and a little more south to southwesterly air flow ahead of it would increase the shower chances heading through the middle of next week. I am certain this forecast will need a lot of fine-tuning.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)

As little confidence as I have for the 6-10 day period, I have even less for this one, so I will say that taking a look at the overall pattern leads me to believe both temperatures and precipitation will be near to slightly below average.

C-19 Chat Post – May 19 2020

7:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

High pressure from Canada is going to be the dominant player the next several days, despite a warm front attempting to get into the region today (producing a few spotty showers early), its parent low to the southwest and tropical storm Arthur off the US Southeast Coast both being held at bay. The coolest part of the week will be the first few days, and then you’ll notice a warm-up underway. Can’t rule out a shower threat by later Friday as the high pressure area from Canada will have slipped to the southeast by then and grabbed some moisture from south of the region, drawing it northward.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain until midday. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts mainly coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts mainly coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65 coast, 65-72 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of showers late day or night. Highs 73-80, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)

A little more optimistic for better weather overall during the May 23-25 Memorial Day Weekend with any unsettled weather holding off until after that, but will monitor for “surprises”

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)

A quiet battle between high pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure in the southeastern US puts New England in the middle with an uncertain forecast, probably held back from very warm weather and facing a few unsettled days. Continued low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – May 18 2020

8:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

High pressure is going to win. In terms of southeastern New England’s weather, it doesn’t matter so much whether or not the storm to the south gets a name, whether it’s actually tropical, a hybrid, or whatever. That thing is going to be offshore anyway, no major impact to the East Coast except becoming a player in some wave action over the next few days. As far as the weather in the WHW forecast area is concerned, it’s all about high pressure from Canada. What once looked like a cloudy and often wet stretch beginning some time today and lasting 4 or 5 days or even longer doesn’t quite look so imposing now. Yes, we’ll have some cloudiness around today as warmer air arrives in the atmosphere above us, and we may get a spot or 2 of light rain at some point during the first half of Monday, but high pressure will be strengthening in eastern Canada and sinking down across the northeastern US in a slow but steady fashion during the next 5 days, so beyond the initial cloudiness and brief rain threat, we’re talking about fair weather, although it will be on the cooler side especially through Wednesday, because of a dominant easterly wind, and this may also result in some lower ocean cloudiness coming in at times.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 62-69 interior. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain until midday. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts mainly coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts mainly coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

High pressure east of New England brings more humid conditions and a risk of rain showers later May 22 and May 23 then a new high to the north and a frontal boundary in the region bring cooler and potentially unsettled weather May 24-25 before conditions improve at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

A quiet battle between high pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure in the southeastern US puts New England in the middle with an uncertain forecast, probably held back from very warm weather and facing a few unsettled days. Low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – May 17 2020