10:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

New air mass today, still mild, but drier than yesterday, and the threat of storms is now gone. Don’t expect full sun though, as there is some cold air aloft and quite a few stratocumulus clouds will be about at times. Also, a few lingering high clouds along the South Coast associated with last night’s system will be moving out. Tomorrow we’ll see an increase in high cloudiness ahead of our next low pressure system, but it will be a nice day. As far as the next round of unsettled weather goes – this outlook on this has undergone quite the evolution over the last several days, although this is nothing new to forecasting weather. Even now, we have 3 models depicting 3 different scenarios for the weather in the next few days. Basically today I am keeping my ideas from yesterday’s update mostly intact, but I warn you this may change before tomorrow’s update is posted. I just don’t want to do all kinds of forecast flip flopping because of uncertainty, so I’m giving more weight to experience with similar set-ups, and we’ll see how that works. Basically I think the semi or pseudo or whatever you want to call it tropical system to the south that isn’t really tropical will become the dominant low pressure area and start to draw energy from the one approaching from the west. A boundary will still be in place across our area, so expect at least a lot of cloudiness and a risk for some rainfall on Monday, but a lot of that potential (and rainfall) may dry up, and we’ll have to wait for the low to the south to push its rainfall northward, but how much will it be able to do that while up against a fairly large high pressure area in eastern Canada, which is now forecast by one of the more reliable models to push even further south? I’ll go with the wet scenario through Tuesday, then a dry out by Wednesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind NW 10-20 MPH this morning, diminishing this afternoon when locally onshore winds may develop at the coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of drizzle. Chance of rain evening. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind E_NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of drizzle, especially coastal areas. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

High pressure brings dry weather May 21, then moves east of New England and a humid southerly flow brings a chance of showers May 22, and expecting unsettled weather to linger into if not through Memorial Day Weekend, but a complex cast of characters make the detailing of this impossible this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

Additional high pressure in eastern Canada and building high pressure over the US Southeast may keep a boundary somewhat nearby, making for a tricky temperature and weather forecast heading down the home stretch of May. Leaning toward a few unsettled days and cool winning out over warm, but with contiued low confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – May 16 2020

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

This 5 day segment contains a few more adjustments as I fine-tune the evolving situation. First and foremost, today’s thunderstorm threat remains, but it looks like some of the potential may not be realized – not a bad thing. We’ve already gotten the area of rain ahead of the warm front through, and as the front makes its way through the area I still expect it to have difficulty pushing much beyond the Merrimack Valley of Massachusetts, possibly leaving northeastern Massachusetts and much of southern NH, especially the Seacoast, on the cooler side of the boundary. With a little more sun expected, the temperature potential is a little bit higher away from the ocean’s influence and in the warmer air mass, so the contrast in high temperatures across the region today, given my idea of the front’s position is correct, will be quite large. As for the thunderstorms, the way I see it unfolding is just isolated to widely scattered showers / storms forming after 2 p.m. from west to east across the area for the first round. Any of these storms could become severe with hail and damaging wind, and there is even a risk that an isolated severe storm could be a rotating super cell storm in which case there would be a tornado potential. This is the extreme case, and won’t be widespread, but just something to be aware of if / when storms fire up this afternoon. The greatest practice you can have while monitoring weather: no panic, follow trusted sources, react accordingly. After whatever happens from the first round of threat goes by, we will have to wait for at least one, and up to a few segmented lines of showers / storms, but this may not take place until after 6 p.m. from northwest to southeast across the area, finally winding down around midnight or shortly thereafter for South Coast locations. While there is still the possibility of strong to locally severe storms with these, that type of activity may be rather limited as the activity occurring later, while having some dynamic support, will lack daytime heating to feed on. Obviously, this will be monitored closely. On to the weekend… looks like a nice one as a weak area of high pressure dominates Saturday then starts to move away Sunday as clouds increase ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west. Expecting wet weather to hold off until Sunday evening, at the earliest, and perhaps all the way to Monday morning. Some of this will depend on the evolution of low pressure to the south of New England. As mentioned yesterday, this evolving system will have an impact on our weather here, as such systems tend to during the springtime. The hype has been the possibility of this thing having subtropical characteristics and getting a name, and that’s honestly the least of the concerns, unless anybody wants to get an early jump on trying to verify a seasonal forecast. Truth is, the storm will probably never really deserve a name, by definition, but the point is, the low pressure area will impact the weather as it moves northward and adds moisture to Monday’s wet weather system, and keeping it slowed down to hang around through the day, along with a gusty wind and cool/raw air blowing in off the chilly Atlantic. So a miserable Monday seems in the offing. There have been some differences in the various guidance as to how quickly to move this system out of here. It does look like high pressure drifting down from eastern Canada will be strong enough to push this system back to the south starting Tuesday, but we will still likely be under its cloud canopy and have at least ocean-enhanced drizzle, even if the rain area has already retreated. This is the scenario I’m going with now. Suffice it to say, the early part of next week doesn’t look very good, weather wise.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon on, some possibly strong to severe, favoring interior southern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Highs 57-64 South Coast, NH Seacoast, northeastern MA, 65-72 interior southeastern NH, Merrimack Valley, southwestern to south central NH, and far eastern MA, 73-80 interior southern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind SE 5-15 MPH coastal NH and northeastern MA, SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and possible thunderstorms, diminishing from northwest to southeast late evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of drizzle. Chance of rain evening. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind E_NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of drizzle, especially coastal areas. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

High pressure pressing southward from eastern Canada should push low pressure far enough south for clearing and dry weather May 20-21, but as this high then moves to a position east of New England, some of the lingering moisture from the old system to the south and southwest may come back as scattered showers with more humid conditions May 22-24. Temperatures not too far from normal during this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Additional high pressure in eastern Canada and building high pressure over the US Southeast may keep a boundary somewhat nearby, making for a tricky temperature and weather forecast heading down the home stretch of May. Leaning toward a few unsettled days and cool winning out over warm, but with low confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – May 15 2020

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

And just like that, the outlook is not quite the same. It almost caught me, and somewhat did, but there were suspicions yesterday, and as they day went on and today arrived they became larger, and the classic “spring thing” will be taking place. How big of an impact it has here is still somewhat unknown. What is the “classic spring thing”? If you ask most meteorologists who have more than 1 seasons of forecasting experience in spring in New England, they will think of either the ocean’s influence on temperature (locally), or the atmosphere’s tendency to do things that are not quite west-to-east (regionally). Both will be the case before the end of this 5 day period, and we’ll continue the story in the 6-10 day period below. But before we get there, let’s rewind to today, a nice day overall, definitely less windy and much milder than the last 2 days have been, but you’ll start to see an increase in high and mid level cloudiness as the day goes on, and this is the atmosphere’s response to increasing warmth and humidity aloft. That is a warm front approaching, and the front will get into the area, but may not completely get through it. I’m still concerned that the front may never fully make it beyond northeastern MA and southeastern NH Friday, while a good portion of the region gets into the warm sector between that warm front and an approaching cold front. So that sets up a tricky forecast for Friday, yup, the day-2 forecast, for both temperature and weather, when areas to the northeast, say Hampton Beach NH for example, could be stuck in the 50s while the suburbs southwest of Boston are pushing into the 70s. In addition, after we get through some warm frontal rainfall initially from tonight into the early hours of Friday, we’ll then have to watch for the development of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front approaches. Areas that get into the warm air stand the greatest chance of seeing the strongest storms, with a few possibly becoming severe. The greatest chance of this in the WHW forecast area would be northeastern CT, northwestern RI, and adjacent south central MA. Closer to the South Coast, a wind off the water would limit this chance, and the lack of deeper warm air would do the same in areas to the north and east of the higher risk area. So this will be something to watch – updated again on tomorrow morning’s blog post and of course when any new ideas can be shared in the comments section. Beyond that, it looks like before the “typical spring thing” happens, we’ll have a fairly decent weekend: fair weather Saturday, coolest on the coast, then increasing clouds Sunday ahead of the next low pressure system, but rainfall may hold off at least until Sunday evening, and possibly until Monday. What takes place on Monday is likely to be different than what I had been touting in previous blog posts. I’d been optimistic that what we would have been dealing with is one low pressure system coming along in the jet stream, giving us its wet weather late Sunday to early Monday, then moving along. But it’s not that simple. An area of showers and thunderstorms coming out of the Bahamas is going to enter an area off the US Southeast Coast that is favorable for early tropical development, not really purely tropical, but a hybrid type system, or potential subtropical storm, and just enough of a dip in the jet stream carrying our system in from the west will draw this system northward. When this happens, the upper level steering currents can see a low pressure area that becomes separated from the jet stream, so it doesn’t just move along and depart. It hangs around, maybe moving westward for a while or doing a loop. This process will be just getting underway Monday, which now looks wet, breezy, and chilly.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms likely from mid afternoon on, some possibly strong, favoring interior southern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Highs 55-62 South Coast, NH Seacoast, northeastern MA, 62-69 interior southeastern NH, Merrimack Valley, and remainder of southern NH and far eastern MA, 70-77 interior southern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind SE 5-15 MPH coastal NH and northeastern MA, SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and possible thunderstorms, especially RI and southeastern MA. Gradual clearing overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

This 5-day period’s weather largely depends on the movement and behavior of a broad area of low pressure just to the south of the region. Current idea is for cool/wet/breezy conditions to start, then lots of clouds and occasional drizzle/showers hanging on for a couple more days before low pressure is then replaced by a southerly air flow, warmer temperatures and higher humidity with additional showers as one of the remaining lows approaches as a trough from the west later in the period, with finally some clearing possible by the very end of the period. This complex evolution idea will probably change so monitor future updates.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

Watching for high pressure in eastern Canada which may put a boundary between cool Canadian air and much warmer air to the south nearby. Tricky forecast in here, but leaning toward more unsettled days than fair ones.

C-19 Chat Post – May 14 2020

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

A chilly start this morning – you felt it sting a bit if you were out there early. This, I can safely say, is the last “cold” morning of the spring, in terms of genuine chilly air with polar or arctic origin that isn’t modified enough not to have a bite. The upcoming weather pattern prevents another such event soon, and beyond that, climatology says “nope!”. Now this does not include the kind of chill you can get with a heavy overcast and a wind off the water. We haven’t actually seen much of that this spring, other than during some passing low pressure areas to the south, but we can still see some of that, but not in the next few days at least, as we experience a bit of a warm up through Friday. This will not come without a price though. First we do have a nice albeit cool and breezy day today, sunshine dominant but some clouds forming and passing by in the wind . Thursday’s going to be noticeably milder, but there will be some increase in high and mid level clouds as previously mentioned, due to the warming atmosphere. This will lead to a period of rain at night as a warm front approaches. Will this front make it all the way through the WHW forecast area? I think so, but it may take its time getting by the NH Seacoast, so if that area ends up somewhat cooler than my high temperature forecast for Thursday, or doesn’t reach those highs until late afternoon, don’t be surprised. Friday will be an active weather day at both ends, with early wet weather from the warm front, and mid afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms with a cold front. Friday’s high temperatures and intensity of thunderstorms are both depending on how much sun we see during the middle portion of the day. More sun = warmer and stronger storms. Less sun = not quite as warm but less potent storms. Not looking for a widespread severe weather event but just something to watch. What about the weekend? Mostly good. A tad cooler but still very nice, and dry Saturday, with the coast likely coolest of all. Sunday probably clouds over, at least as a low pressure area approaches from the west, being in the Great Lakes at that time. A wild card is whether or not we bring lower clouds in off the ocean as the wind will be turning southeast to east by then. Wet weather may arrive before the day is over as well from the system to the west, but the bulk of it should hold off til night.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. A period of rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 55-62 South Coast, 62-69 East Coast, 70-77 interior. Wind SW 10-20 MPH except may be lighter and still SE near the NH Seacoast for a while.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a risk of showers early then clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain late-day or night. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind SE-E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

May 18 looks unsettled as low pressure sits south of the region before moving away – this would result in damp and cool weather but not sure how much rain at this time. Leaning now toward a slower evolution and departure of low pressure, so unsettled/chilly weather may linger into the middle of next week before brief improvement, but the end of the period while warmer may end up showery with a system from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

Watching for high pressure in eastern Canada which may put a boundary between cool Canadian air and much warmer air to the south nearby. Don’t infer 5 unsettled days from this, but day-to-day weather can’t be determined with this pattern. Just expect variable conditions.

C-19 Chat Post – May 13 2020

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

Three dry days (mostly). Today and Wednesday will feature a cool breeze and some diurnal cloudiness popping up from the heating of the sun, but these are fair weather clouds and while the breeze will seem cooler when the blot out the sun, overall it will be a nice couple of days despite the lack of warmth. We will also see a small disturbance pass by tonight with some extra cloudiness. It will warm up noticeably on Thursday but we’ll also see some high and mid level clouds as the upper atmosphere warms as well. I still think the daytime is dry but at night an area of rain likely arrives as a warm front moves in. This front will pass through by early Friday, which may start cloudy. The main thing to be watched for Friday is not so much how warm it gets, and it could get pretty warm depending on how deeply into a warm air mass and how much sun wet get. I’m leaning a little bit toward a shorter time in the warm air and less sun, and a better chance of showers. But the lack of sun may limit thunderstorm chances that day as well. It’s still a bit early to really talk in detail about that day but this will be re-evaluated with coming updates. Regardless, Saturday looks like a great day as the air behind the cold front will not be that chilly as high pressure returns.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. A period of rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Highs ranging from 55-62 Cape Cod and South Coast to 67-74 interior valley locations. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a risk of showers early then clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

Watching for a back-door cold front to turn it much cooler during May 17 while moisture from the west as well as from off the ocean combine to bring cloudiness and eventually wet weather. May 18 transition day – starts wet then turns dry and breezy. Fair, warmer May 19-20. Shower risk at the end of the period with a system arriving from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

General pattern in this time frame continues to look zonal (west to east) overall, but there may be a tendency for more high pressure in eastern Canada which introduces back-door cold front risks and some temperature complications in the forecast – typical springtime in New England.

C-19 Chat Post – May 12 2020

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

This 5 day period will feature 3 fair weather days sandwiched by 2 unsettled ones. If you’re reading this not long after I post it you may look outside and say “what do you mean unsettled? …it’s sunny!” .. Well yes, it is starting out sunny on this Monday morning but a fast-moving low pressure system is going to deliver clouds in rather rapid fashion as we go through the morning, and probably a decent round of showers, at least for most of the region, from the end of the morning through the early afternoon from southwest to northeast, briefly putting us into the warm sector between the warm front and approaching cold front, which will trigger additional showers and possible thunderstorms from west to east during the afternoon. While a widespread severe weather outbreak won’t be occurring, conditions are marginal for a few of the storms to attain severe levels, producing potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail as well. Generally, I expect most of the activity to be more benign, but stay alert in case. This activity skedaddles out of here this evening once the cold front passes, and we get yet another shot of chilly air behind it for Tuesday and Wednesday. Both days will features a gusty breeze and diurnal cloudiness, probably more cloudiness/wind/chilly air Tuesday than Wednesday. By Thursday, you’ll notice the air turning much milder as the high pressure area that delivers the chill will have moved off to the east and its return flow will be pulling air from a warmer source region. Along with this may come some increased high and mid level cloudiness as the upper air warms. For now, expecting it to remain dry for the daytime hours of Thursday.

TODAY: Sunny start then clouding over with showers arriving southwest to northeast by late morning through early afternoon. Remaining mostly cloudy with additional showers and a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Highs ranging from 55-62 Cape Cod and South Coast to 70-77 interior valley locations. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Bubble of high pressure brings fair but continued mild weather May 16. Watching for a back-door cold front to turn it much cooler during May 17 while moisture from the west as well as from off the ocean combine to bring cloudiness and eventually wet weather. May remain somewhat unsettled May 18 with additional drizzle/showers but temperatures may range from quite cool coast to milder inland. Should transition back to fair and seasonably mild weather May 19-20 as high pressure moves in.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

General pattern in this time frame continues to look zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.

C-19 Chat Post – May 11 2020

8:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)

Today will be an improvement over yesterday, weather-wise, though I have to admit I was pretty stoked to see snow, graupel, and really neat clouds yesterday. I’m an exception to the rule, I get that. Most of you want to see a more traditional type of spring weather, by the definition you’d read. While May snow is quite rare, chilly spring weather is not, and we’ll have more of that today along with a gusty breeze, but today will not be as cold as yesterday, nor will the wind be nearly as strong. There will also be somewhat more sunshine, but it will still have to share the sky with clouds. But as previously mentioned, in stark contrast to last Mother’s Day, which was rainy with even some pockets of sleet, this one will be dry. And while we are on the subject, a happy mother’s day to all who qualify (you know who you are!). Looking ahead, still looks unsettled Monday due to a passing low pressure area. This one will have cold air aloft to work with but this time that is not going to aid in producing another May snowfall. This time it may help trigger a thunderstorm among the numerous showers passing through the region. And then things turn for the better as behind this, Tuesday through Thursday all look dry. Tuesday and Wednesday will be on the coolish side but not too bad, a gusty breeze at times, and some clouds at times as well, most of which will pass by Tuesday night fairly unnoticed as a weak disturbance traverses the region in an otherwise high pressure dominated couple days. We may see a little more cloudiness at times Thursday, an occurrence common to a warming of the atmosphere aloft.

TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Warm front cold front combo crosses the region with parent low pressure tracking north of New England May 15 bringing mild air but some rain showers. Fair, slightly cooler May 16. Next low pressure system brings a risk of wet weather sometime in the May 17-18 time frame. Dry at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

General pattern in this time frame continues to look zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.

C-19 Chat Post – May 10 2020

9:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

Sorry I’m a little late with today’s blog weather update. I was outside playing in the snow, and listening to Christmas music. True, and true. Hey, I admit it. How often do you get to do that in May in southern New England? Not often. So now that I’m back in with a warm cup of cocoa and decorating my tree (ok that part is not true), it’s time to take a look at what’s coming up. The last of the flakes from this morning’s event are exiting via the coastline. But that is not necessarily the end of the threat of frozen stuff falling from the sky today, as the air both at the surface and aloft is anomalously cold, and as the departing storm intensifies, in addition to the blustery winds, lots of clouds will linger and some additional showers of rain, snow, and perhaps graupel may occur. The short explanation of graupel, sometimes called “soft hail”, is that it is basically rimed snowflakes partially melted and refrozen, almost the same way a hailstone forms in a thunderstorm, which then falls to earth resembling a tiny styrofoam ball. So if you see these today, don’t be surprised. These showers will not be widespread. If you get one, it will pass quickly. And tonight, get ready for a wintry feel to the air as the breeze keeps blowing and the temperature falls into the 30s with wind chills in the 20s. A little better for Sunday, more sun to start but additional clouds will still pop up with cold air aloft, but it will recover to the 50s. You’ll still have to deal with a gusty breeze at times if you’re outside. But unlike last Mother’s Day, it will be dry. Last year we had rain and cold and even some ice pellets (sleet) falling. So for some locations this is indeed the second year in a row with frozen precipitation on the second weekend of May. So will we be able to talk about something other than wintry stuff in May? Yes indeed. We will be starting a transition out of the current pattern before the end of this 5-day period, but don’t expect to suddenly jump into warm sunshine days. This will be a process, which will just be getting underway in the atmosphere. You won’t notice a big change through observation of sensible weather through this 5 day period. In fact, Monday we have another disturbance heading this way, small but rather potent, bringing at least a threat of showers, and perhaps even some thunderstorm activity, despite it being on the cool side still. Behind this comes a reinforcing shot of cool air but dry weather for Tuesday. A small disturbance will pass by with cloudiness Tuesday night or early Wednesday and then yet another cool and breezy but dry day can be expected Wednesday.

TODAY: Snow, rain to the south, ending from west to east through mid morning, but remaining mostly cloudy with additional showers of rain, snow, and possible graupel midday and afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start mixed sun and clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds early then sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Variable cloud cover at times but considerably milder May 14-15 as a warm front cold front combo crosses the region with parent low pressure tracking north of New England. Fair, slightly cooler May 16. Next low pressure system brings a risk of wet weather sometime in the May 17-18 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

General pattern in this time frame looks zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.