C-19 Chat Post – June 8 2020

8:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

Well, we had our showers and thunderstorms around yesterday, as expected. What was definitely a surprise to me was the potency of some of the early nighttime storms, which I expected to appear as just isolated showers. Apparently the atmosphere had other ideas, and while these were not potent storms for everyone, the areas that got them surely knew it. My second chase of the day ended up being the better of the 2, and yieleded me 2 pictures that I will post in the comments. And now onto the weather forecast! No big changes today. Still expecting lots of clouds to dominate and some pop up showers with cold air aloft and the help of a little convergence between a northeasterly wind near the coast and a more north to northwest wind inland. Some media have termed today’s activity just sprinkles, but there is actually the chance that a few of these could build enough to release brief downpours, and even some small hail, so don’t be surprised if that occurs somewhere. One thing you’ll really notice today is it being much cooler and less humid than the 2 days preceding it. Refreshing, almost a little chilly. High pressure pushes further south to make Monday a much sunnier, dry and pleasant day. By Tuesday, it’s weakening and slipping offshore and the moderation begins, both surface, and aloft, and in a couple of stages brings the temperature back up toward midweek, but you won’t really feel a humidity increase until Wednesday and especially Thursday. By that time, a cold front will be approaching from the west and may increase the shower risk on Thursday, but that initial push of that front may run out of steam.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, mainly afternoon favoring the I-95 belt. A few showers may be briefly heavy and possibly contain small hail. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a shower. More humid. Highs 76-83. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

Higher humidity and a few potential rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms as a frontal system approaches and passes through during June 12-13. Remnant moisture from Cristobal goes into Canada. Drier weather June 14. Clouds and a shower threat may return later in the period but unsure how that evolves at this time. Some guidance has hinted at blocking trying to set-up with low pressure developing nearby. I think this is over-done and that we’ll still see progression and probably a weak low passing by late in the period, but this is the day 9-10 period so very low confidence this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

A slower evolution and weaker set-up for the blocking I mentioned, high pressure in eastern Canada being dominant, low pressure south being weaker. This is probably a dry pattern without any significant heat. Confidence is quite low here so much adjustment to this time period may be coming.

C-19 Chat Post – June 7 2020

7:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

Update and adjustment time. Not too many big adjustments to the forecast as we begin the weekend. Today, a cold front will cross the region, cutting into the humid air and causing some showers and thunderstorms to pop up. Where some of the shorter range guidance had one rather thin line of showers/storms on yesterday’s runs, they have adjusted to a more scattered line-segment set-up on recent runs. Either way, the region runs risk of 1 or 2 showers and/or thunderstorms in any given location with timing being mainly noon to 6PM favoring the northwestern half of the region (southwestern NH through central MA to near the I-95 belt) during the first three hours and areas to the southeast during the remainder of the afternoon. By this evening, it will all settle down and we’ll already be seeing drier air flowing into the region behind the cold front. This sets up a beautiful Sunday, night? Not so fast. For a couple days now I’ve been eyeing the possibility that Sunday will at least feature cloudiness and possibly some shower activity. Both look to be the case, but it won’t be a wash-out, not nearly so. A low pressure area will develop offshore on the front that has gone by, high pressure will be centered in eastern Canada, and there will be cold air aloft. This combination will produce lots of clouds and some pop up shower activity with the greatest shower risk being during the afternoon hours of Sunday over southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Drier air will win out eventually and both Monday & Tuesday look like much sunnier days but with temperatures still slightly below average. By Wednesday, we will see a warm up as we’ll have seen high pressure shift its way southeastward and we’ll be into a west to southwest air flow at that time. Sometimes these warm-ups are met with more cloud cover, other times not really, so I am playing it down the middle for now.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring areas I-95 belt northwestward first half of afternoon, then areas to the southeast mid through late afternoon. Humid, then drying out late-day. Highs 80-87, cooler Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, mainly afternoon favoring the I-95 belt. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

Advancing warmer air and higher humidity means more cloudiness but limited rain chances June 11, then a better chance of showers and possible thunderstorms as a frontal system approaches and passes through during June 12-13. It still looks like the main moisture from whatever is left of T.S. Cristobal (expected to move from the Gulf of Mexico into the central US) moves into Canada and misses this area, which is in need of significant rain. Dry weather is expected with lower humidity by June 14 and quick-moving systems may send cloudiness and warmer air back into the region by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

High pressure dominant in eastern Canada and weak systems in the US indicates a drier and slightly cooler than average pattern for our region for mid June. Some guidance indicates a little more grim a picture, with a broad low pressure area evolving to turn the region wetter. While I do think that general pattern is possible, the wetter weather would likely evolve further south, keeping this area on the drier side.

C-19 Chat Post – June 6 2020

7:10AM

BLOG TEST THEME #5: Twenty-Fifteen

This is the 5th of 8 layouts in the test run. Please continue to comment on the layouts as we go along. Don’t hold back, even if you hate it. I didn’t make these up, and some of them I am definitely not a fan of at all. This one, however, may be my favorite so far (close between yesterday’s and today’s).

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 5-9)

The muggies are back. After a very warm to hot but dry day Thursday, the frontal boundary that’s become the relative that won’t go home has shifted its position back to the north, putting our region back into the humid air again, and it will stay this way into Saturday. We had one round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms around dawn, which is moving out as of the time of this writing. During the day today, clouds should be dominant but some sun is possible as well, and it will be just unstable enough that a few isolated showers and storms may pop up, but I do expect most of the daylight hours to remain rain-free across most of southeastern New England. Tonight, the risk of showers and thunderstorms goes up again. There’s a bit of conflict on different guidance as to where the axis of most frequent and heaviest activity will be, with the majority favoring the I-95 belt southeastward, so I’ll also lean in this direction. Timing is also variable, and will depend on when and where activity develops upstream during the day. This should clear out of the region before dawn Saturday, and then we have one more shot at a shower or thunderstorm along a cold front which will cut through the region from west to east from late morning through mid afternoon. Behind this front, we’ll see a dew point drop as drier air moves in from Canada, but the position of high pressure will turn wind a little more northeasterly and keep coastal areas cooler during Sunday. Colder air aloft will also incite additional cloudiness and perhaps a few showers, especially near a minor convergence zone between northeasterly coastal winds and winds a little more northerly over interior areas. So I’d love to tell you Sunday will be a stellar day, but I cannot. That will wait for Monday, when high pressure, still to the north, will be met with more stable air above and we’ll see wall-to-wall sunshine but continued cooler than average temperatures. It will warm up a little bit as high pressure hangs on Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Any early showers/thunderstorms moving out. Isolated additional showers/thunderstorms possible, mainly mid afternoon on. Humid. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely mainly after 10PM with greatest chance I-95 southeastward. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly late morning and midday west of I-95 and midday to late afternoon from I-95 southeastward. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 10-14)

Advancing warmer air and higher humidity means more cloudiness but limited rain chances June 10-11, then a better chance of showers and possible thunderstorms as a frontal system approaches and passes through during June 12-13. It still looks like the main moisture from whatever is left of T.S. Cristobal (expected to move from the Gulf of Mexico into the central US) moves into Canada and misses this area, which is in need of significant rain. Dry weather is expected with lower humidity by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)

High pressure dominant in eastern Canada and weak systems in the US indicates a drier and slightly cooler than average pattern for our region for mid June.

C-19 Chat Post – June 5 2020

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

The frontal boundary that will be toying with the region through the weekend will be far enough south today to allow a very nice late spring / early summer day, definitely feeling like summer with warm air in place, but comfortable with low humidity. But back comes that front tonight with clouds, one round of showers (maybe a few embedded thunderstorms but low risk of that), and that introduces the humidity back into the picture for Friday into Saturday when the front pushes back to the south once again. There will be a couple more rounds of showers and storms possible during the humid phase as well, mainly Friday afternoon in scattered form, and a little better chance sometime Friday night with an impulse of low pressure passing by, and once again with the actual front passing by during Saturday. Sunday, the front will be to the south but the orientation of high pressure to the north, in eastern Canada, will turn the wind flow northeast, and the front not being that far away will likely combine to hold a lot of cloudiness in the region, and I’m still not ruling out a few showers developing as well. Monday, the high in Canada will exert more influence and turn us sunnier, cooler, and dry.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds evening. Mostly cloudy overnight with a round of showers favoring areas near and south of I-90, along with a slight risk of a thunderstorm. Increasingly humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring the early morning (before 8AM) and mid to late afternoon (after 2PM) hours. Humid. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast with coolest Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible mainly after 10PM. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly late morning and midday west of I-95 and midday to late afternoon from I-95 southeastward. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 9-13)

High pressure from Canada brings fair, pleasant weather June 9. Then we go back to the pattern with a nearby frontal boundary and bouts of cloudiness while cool air to the north battles warm and humid air to the south. This also means a few shower and thunderstorm threats as well. But despite being in this pattern again it looks like rainfall for the region as a whole will still be below average. The early indications are that moisture from Tropical Storm Cristobal (Gulf of Mexico) will eventually travel through the middle of the US and instead of toward New England will move into Canada and actually result in a very late spring snowstorm somewhere between Lake Superior and Hudson Bay. That will be interesting to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

High pressure dominant in eastern Canada and weak systems in the US indicates a drier and slightly cooler than average pattern for our region for mid June.

C-19 Chat Post – June 4 2020

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 3-7)

A warm front passing through the region early today will introduce warmer and more humid air to the region, but a cold front quickly on its heals will bring the risk of a shower or thunderstorm to some areas by later in the day, although it looks like the bulk of that activity may occur southwest of the WHW forecast area, across western MA and CT. Still have to watch for one elsewhere. A sliver of drier air arrives for Thursday, behind the cold front, but it’s not a strong front so it will remain rather warm anyway. Also, that front won’t get that far south of the region and a disturbance coming along it will allow a batch of clouds to come back in later in the day and even a chance of some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity favoring the South Coast overnight Thursday night / Friday morning. In fact the boundary will lift back to the north with time and bring back the humid air during Friday and into Saturday, when low pressure passing north of the region will again drive the front back to the south for the second half of the weekend, introducing cooler air, but will there be any significant clearing? I’m not banking on it. A still-close-by front and a northeasterly air flow with high pressure to the north does not often promote a clean clear-out behind the front, so Sunday may end up at least mostly cloudy, and we may even see some shower activity. Yup, this is that boundary that I mentioned last week being in the area for the second half of this week.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible from mid afternoon on. More humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers mainly south of I-90. Lows 60-67. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly morning and midday. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 8-12)

High pressure from Canada brings fair, cooler weather June 8-9. Then we go back to the pattern with a nearby frontal boundary and bouts of cloudiness while cool air to the north battles warm and humid air to the south. This also means a few shower and thunderstorm threats as well. We’ll have to keep an eye on possible remnant tropical moisture from a Gulf of Mexico system that may be involved in enhancing rainfall before this 5-day period ends.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 13-17)

Return to a drier pattern. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – June 3 2020

2:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 2-6)

A warm front will approach today, sending clouds back into the region. This front will not have enough moisture for widespread rainfall, so only scattered light rain is possible mainly this evening. As the front slowly but steadily pushes its way eastward through Wednesday morning, a few additional showers may occur. We then get into a wedge of warmer and more humid air during the day Wednesday, when we may see a few additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm as a cold front approaches. This front will also have limited ability to produce much activity, so many areas will see a rain-free Wednesday for most of if not all of the day. The cold front clears the region by early Thursday and drops the humidity a bit, although it will still be a fairly warm day, but the front comes back again to the north on Friday and Saturday with more humidity and a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms possible, though once again it does not look like it will be a widespread rainfall situation.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Scattered light rain late. Highs 65-72. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of showers early morning, then partly sunny. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. More humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly morning and midday. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 7-11)

A frontal boundary will hang up just to the south for a while June 7 with high pressure in eastern Canada and a northeasterly air flow setting up with cooler conditions, lots of clouds and perhaps some isolated to scattered showers. High pressure from the north pushes southward with drier weather June 8-9, temperatures running a little below normal. Temperatures return to near normal June 10-11 but during this time the risk of rainfall may increase, and toward the end of the period we may have to watch for remnant tropical moisture from a Gulf of Mexico system that could potentially bring the first threat of needed significant rain in quite some time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 12-16)

Return to a drier pattern. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – June 2 2020

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 1-5)

Welcome to June and Meteorological Summer! While the summer solstice is still just under 3 weeks away the “climate summer” gets underway today. And it won’t really feel much like summer as we have a cool high pressure area centered to the west, and an upper level low pressure trough about to cross the region. This disturbance will help clouds pop up today, some of which will produce showers. It will be breezy and on the cool side as well. The upper low exits tonight and a warm front approaches Tuesday, bringing more cloudiness and eventually a risk of a little light rainfall. This will introduce warmer and slightly more humid air for Wednesday, a day that will be mainly rain-free but still feature the risk of a shower or thunderstorm, especially south of I-90, as a weak cold front moves in late. This front will bring the humidity and temperature down a tick or two for Thursday but the front will also hang in the region and drift back to the north by Friday, a day with lots of clouds but more warmth and humidity, and a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Risk of passing showers this afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Scattered light rain late. Highs 65-72. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of showers early morning, then partly sunny. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. More humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 69-76. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 6-10)

A frontal boundary will be in the region on the June 6-7 weekend, likely with this area on the warm/humid side Saturday with a few showers and possible thunderstorms, and on the cooler side Sunday with a few showers. High pressure brings fair weather June 8-9 with a cooler start then warming. Warm front may approach with clouds and showers by June 10.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 11-15)

Leaning toward slightly cooler than average and drier than average during this 5-day period.

C-19 Chat Post – June 1 2020