7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

We have a hurricane to talk about, but we will get to that. First, and the more immediate future, we will have a wet start to the day today along the South Coast. This is something that we have been keeping an eye on for several days. The cause is the front that went through yesterday sitting in that region while a week wave of low pressure rides along it and tropical moisture is lifted over the frontal boundary. As you head north where to cross Southeastern New England the weather is drier and eventually clearer as the cloud line sits near the Massachusetts New Hampshire border early this morning. We will see a drying trend along the south coast and a clearing trend for the entire region as the day goes along today. An area of high pressure will provide a very nice day for the first of August on Saturday. If there is one caveat it is that sea breezes forming along all coastal areas may have enough moisture to interact with closer to the south Coast that a couple of isolated showers may develop during the afternoon. This would be the exception, not the rule. By Sunday, low pressure passing northwest of the region will drag a warm front into southeastern New England, increasing the cloud cover and eventually the risk of some shower activity. Humidity will also be on the rise at this time. by Monday, we should be into a warm and muggy air mass with just a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. During this time we will be awaiting our fate regarding the track of Hurricane Isaias. As has been mentioned previously, subtle changes in a storm’s track can have a significant impact on a storm’s intensity. and a track a little further away from mountainous influence and over very warm water has allowed this system to gain intensity a little more quickly, something it will continue to do as it moves through the Bahamas. The best guess on the track of the system currently is that the center will stay offshore of Florida and Georgia, and South Carolina, and either just offshore or clipping the North Carolina coast over the coming few days as it moves along. That brings us to Tuesday. That will be the day that this system has its most significant impact on our region. The details of that impact will depend on the track of the system, and obviously its intensity. A track over the region would most likely produce a greater wind impact than a rainfall impact, although the rainfall impact would still be significant. A track just to the southeast of the region would likely produce a greater rainfall impact than a wind impact, although wind would still be a factor. a slightly sharper turn to the northeast would lessen the impact of both of these. It is simply too soon to tell exactly what will happen.

TODAY: An overcast and showery start South Coast, with lots of clouds elsewhere except mostly clear north central MA through southern NH. Midday and afternoon showers ending with thinning clouds South Coast, and increasing sunshine elsewhere. Less humid. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated showers in southern RI and eastern CT during the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 61-68. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon showers. More humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers or rain likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 72-79. Wind variable 10-30 MPH, possibly stronger.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

Assuming the timing of Isaias remains as expected we should have improved weather by the beginning of this period, with mostly fair and drier conditions into mid period, followed by an increase in humidity and a risk of showers and thunderstorms later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

Current indications continue to show a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This type of pattern can produce episodes of showers and thunderstorms but still plenty of rain-free hours as well.

C-19 Chat Post – July 31 2020

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

A cold front will slog across the region from northwest to southeast today. This front will be responsible for triggering a few showers and thunderstorms in southeastern New England. It will then hang up just to the south of New England through Friday. To start out with, activity today will be isolated at first, then with some sun’s heating expected a few more showers and storms to pop up, but activity may favor areas near and south of I-90, especially from mid afternoon on. This activity will linger near the South Coast tonight into Friday mostly in the form of showers as a wave of low pressure moves along the front just to the south. High pressure wins out later Friday into Saturday. Later in the weekend, a northward push of that frontal boundary introduces more cloudiness, humidity, and a risk of showers at some point Sunday and again on Monday as well.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. More humid. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers, favoring the South Coast. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast. Clearing afternoon. Less humid. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 61-68. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon showers. More humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

The NHC forecast track for TS Isaias puts to a position south of New England while recurving by August 4. We may be in a plume of tropical moisture with showery conditions even if the center does not pass that close to the region, but we can’t discount a closer track as well this far in advance, so something to watch. The remainder of the period will feature seasonably warm weather and limited risks for showers and thunderstorms but will fine-tune this part of the forecast over the next few days.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

Current indications continue to show a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This type of pattern can produce episodes of showers and thunderstorms but still plenty of rain-free hours as well.

C-19 Chat Post – July 30 2020

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

One cold front came through the region late yesterday but due to warm air aloft, shower and thunderstorm development was quite limited, with most of the activity (small downpours and a few thunderstorms) being limited to near the South Coast in the most humid air with a little help from convergence. Now we have a batch of less humid and slightly cooler air in the region today, which by definition will still turn out to be a hot summer day. You’ll just notice it being a little easier to take than yesterday was. Reminder: If you are working or exercising outside, it’s still important to take breaks and hydrate, even if it’s “not as bad”. Also of important note, while today will be a dry (rain-free) day for the vast majority of the the southeastern New England region, the front that went by yesterday is not that far to the south and some moisture still moving up along it has produced an area of showers and thunderstorms south southwest of New England overnight, and a piece of this may clip Martha’s Vineyard and the elbow of Cape Cod and likely crossing Nantucket during mid to perhaps late morning… We get some of the humidity back Thursday, but not really any up-tick in the heat from today. This will occur as another cold front approaches and moves into the region. Similar to yesterday, a few showers and storms may ignite with the approach and passage of this front, but I’m not expecting widespread activity and the risk of any severe storms is quite low. This front likely will hang itself up near the South Coast for a while on Friday and a little ripple of low pressure may move along it, keeping cloudiness over the region for a time on Friday and possibly some wet weather especially near the South Coast. Finally, high pressure should win out and provide nice weather for later Friday and Saturday as we make the transition from July to August. Sunday, look for an increase in both humidity and cloudiness as a some tropical moisture moves up from the southwest. While right now I think we may get through most of that day rain-free, at day 5 there is some uncertainty with the timing of such a threat, so just looking at it as a threat of afternoon showers at this time and will adjust and detail as it gets closer.

TODAY: Lots of clouds South Coast, especially Cape Cod, through mid morning with some passing rain showers islands and elbow of Cape, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm, mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast.. Clearing afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 61-68. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon showers. More humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

We’ll be watching a tropical system (currently TD 9 in the eastern Caribbean and forecast to become TS Isaias as it moves through the Caribbean and toward the Bahamas and/or South Florida by the weekend. While we have a pattern in place here that supports southerly air flow and tropical moisture, typical for early August, we’ll have to keep an eye on the track of this system, even if it dissipates over the Southeast US, for potential enhanced rainfall somewhere in the early to middle portion of this forecast period. Too early for any definitive call on this.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

Current indications are for a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This type of pattern can produce episodes of showers and thunderstorms but still plenty of rain-free hours as well.

C-19 Chat Post – July 29 2020

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A cold front crosses the region today, triggering showers and thunderstorms for some locations. This frontal passage will take the edge off the heat and humidity for midweek, and a second front will come through during Thursday cooling it down a bit more to end the week.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast. Clearing afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

High pressure will control the weather with dry weather and low to moderate humidity August 2. An increase in humidity and shower risk comes after that, and we may need to keep an eye on a tropical system near or off the East Coast toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

Current indications are for a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This should increase the shower and thunderstorm risk somewhat during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – July 28 2020

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 27-31)

And down the home stretch of July we come! Mid summer heat will be dominant through Tuesday as upper level high pressure controls the weather here. But a cold front approaching on Tuesday will set off some showers and thunderstorms for some, possibly not all, of the region. What it will do for all the region is bring the heat and humidity down somewhat for midweek, a trend that will hang on right through Friday as a weak reinforcing trough passes by during Thursday. One potential fly in the ointment is we may have to watch that trough line early Friday as a little wave of low pressure may form on it, at least holding cloudiness in the region for a time on Friday and possibly becoming the focus for a little wet weather. But this part of the forecast is low confidence and subject to tweaking as the week goes along.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highest humidity this morning then may dry out slightly this afternoon especially north of I-90. Highs 92-99 except cooler parts of South Coast especially Cape Cod. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid again. Lows 73-80, warmest in urban locations. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast. Clearing afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

High pressure will control the weather with dry weather and low to moderate humidity for the August 1-2 weekend. An increase in humidity and shower risk comes after that, and we may need to keep an eye on a tropical system near or off the East Coast toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

Current indications are for a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This should increase the shower and thunderstorm risk somewhat during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – July 27 2020

8:30AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 26-30)

Summer heat, July-style. This along with building humidity will be with us through Monday and into Tuesday until a cold front brings the threat of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday and knocks the humidity and heat back a few notches by the middle of the week. Although a couple troughs still needing to swing through during midweek will keep the threat of a passing shower or storm in places both Wednesday and Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 86-93, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly afternoon. Less humid. Highs 85-92. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Cooler, dry end to July then a gradual return to warmth and humidity in the early days of August with limited shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Weak west to southwest flow aloft with that pattern being “typical” summertime, warm with limited but occasional shower and thunderstorm chances. Also may need to watch for a tropical system threatening the region at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – July 26 2020

9:00AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 25-29)

Three days free of thunderstorm threats but not free of heat and building humidity. That will be this weekend and Monday for southeastern New England as high pressure shifts south of the region and a westerly flow taps the heat and humidity south and west of the region and pulls it in here. Tuesday and Wednesday will be when we’ll see a couple disturbances enter the region, triggering the threat of showers and thunderstorms once again.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 86-93, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly afternoon. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Leaning a bit more optimistic about dry weather and lower humidity to end July. More humidity and a shower/thunderstorm threat may return to start August. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in how these days play out, detail-wise.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Weak west to southwest flow aloft with that pattern being “typical” summertime, warm to hot, limited but occasional shower and thunderstorm chances. Also may need to watch for a tropical system threatening the region at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – July 25 2020

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 24-28)

Despite an active pattern in the last few weeks with frequent episodes of showers and thunderstorms, we have managed to find ourselves in a basically unchanged “abnormally dry” to “moderate drought” status according to the latest Drought Monitor data. There are exceptions – a portion of southeastern MA, eastern CT, and Nantucket, that are not showing any significant dryness at this time. However with no switch to a pattern that is going to provide a series of widespread, beneficial rainfall, I don’t expect much to change over the next few weeks, and we may yet seen an expansion of dryness in the longer term. We will revisit this, but now to focus back on the regional weather in the shorter term, i.e., the next 5 days. The cold front that brought another round of thunderstorms to a good portion of the region yesterday sits just offshore this morning. Some higher level moisture is still streaming northeastward and will be responsible for a fair amount of high and some mid level cloudiness for a while today, though we will see it move out eventually. In addition, the lower level air flow only being weakly from the north will allow for some sea breeze development during the afternoon, and these may provide enough convergence to pop a few showers mainly across RI, eastern CT, and adjacent areas of southern MA, so I cannot make today a totally dry forecast for the southeastern New England region. I can do that tomorrow though, as a dry and stable air mass will be in place as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes extends itself into southern New England. This keeps winds light enough so that we may again see some sea breezes, but not enough moisture for any showers. Want more summer heat? Regardless of your answer, it’s coming back Sunday and lasting into early next week. This will come along with an increase in humidity once again as high pressure moves to the south of New England. A series of troughs approaching from the north will provide an increasing risk of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday, though that risk may come down a little bit on Wednesday as slightly drier air sneaks in behind one of them. That’s a detail I’m not confident of yet.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds with limited sun morning. Fewer clouds with more sun afternoon, but isolated showers possible eastern CT, RI, and nearby southern MA. Less humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind N up to 10 MPH except coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy southern MA southward with a slight risk of a shower early, otherwise mostly clear. Patchy fog forming in lower elevation areas (valleys, swamps, riverbeds, bogs). Lows 56-63. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 86-93, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated thunderstorms late in the day. Humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Warm to hot with a risk of showers and thunderstorms July 29 then a push of drier air is possible by July 30. Still uncertainty but cannot rule out a cooler/unsettled final day of July if we get low pressure south and high pressure north to set-up. Improvement would follow for the August 1-2 weekend. Still a lot of tweaking potential with this part of the forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Mostly zonal flow, seasonably warm to hot weather and a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities.