C-19 Chat Post – July 24 2020

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 23-27)

Yesterday’s shower and thunderstorm activity behaved about as expected. Today brings another threat of showers and storms, this time in a very warm and humid air mass ahead of a cold front, which will pass by during tonight and early Friday morning, bringing the threat to an end. Thunderstorms today may be strong to locally severe, and while I don’t expect this to be a widespread issue, all should be on the look-out any time this afternoon through early evening for the potential. Cooler and drier air arrives during Friday, behind the front, and sets up what looks like a nice late July weekend with driest air Saturday and a bit more humidity and heat Sunday. A weak trough of low pressure will pass by late Sunday night into the early hours of Monday with just the slightest risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm, otherwise Monday should be mainly dry and on the hot side.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy to partly sunny through mid morning with a brief passing light shower possible. Sun/cloud mix with showers/thunderstorms possible any time this afternoon . Thunderstorms may contain torrential rain, small hail, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts. Humid. Highs 84-91, cooler some South Coast areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH (variable, stronger, gusty near any thunderstorms).

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms possible evening, mainly near and south of I-90. Patchy fog late evening and overnight. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH, except variable and gusty near any storms early.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Less humid. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 88-95. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Higher humidity and a risk of showers / thunderstorms July 28 into July 29. High pressure north and low pressure south may combine for more cloudiness, onshore flow, and cooler temperatures July 30-31, but there remains a high degree of uncertainty in this part of the forecast. Improvement or nicer weather should take place by August 1 regardless.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Fairly zonal flow, seasonably warm to hot weather and a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities in the early days of August.

C-19 Chat Post – July 23 2020

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 22-26)

We’ve been eyeing Wednesday & Thursday as two unsettled days this week. Still the case. A warm front will approach and slowly cross the region today and tonight. The main threat of showers (and risk of thunder) will be early to mid morning today and then a second batch will make a run at the region this evening. Any time between that there could be an isolated shower or storm developing, and the atmosphere’s set-up today is one where we do have to keep an eye on any isolated storms that form, as they have the potential to become super cell storms, which can carry a higher risk of producing damaging wind and/or larger hail. DO NOT expect this as any kind of outbreak as it won’t be that – but the risk is there so must watch. Thursday we will find ourselves in a soupy airmass with much higher humidity, and any sun that comes out will not only make it feel more uncomfortable but will also fuel the development of showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front. My initial thought is that the greatest threat for these will take place from the second half of the afternoon to the early evening and favor areas near and south of I-90. However, this does not mean that other areas will be immune to the threat, and everyone should be aware that storms may occur, and they could be strong. Once the front pushes through by early Friday morning, initially it won’t get that far to the south, and enough moisture coming along it will likely at least hold cloudiness in the region for a time during Friday, and even the threat of a few showers, especially in southern portions of the region. Expect clearing later Friday as high pressure pushes in, which will provide nice weather for Saturday as well. This high will sink to the south by Sunday and open the door for a spike in humidity and a bit of heat, but the shower and thunderstorm risk that appeared to be present for Sunday previously may hold off as the disturbance that would bring the threat may be slower-moving and not approach until at least later Sunday night…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm through mid morning. Variably cloudy late morning on with a slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Increasingly humid. Highs 75-82 coastal areas as well as northeastern MA through southern NH, 80-87 south central MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW across southern areas by mid to late afternoon.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the southern half of central and eastern MA southward through eastern CT & RI especially mid afternoon on. Humid. Highs 83-90, cooler some South Coast locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely early from southern MA southward, with a chance of showers or thunderstorms to the north. Patchy fog forming. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms early.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with a risk of a passing shower. Decreasing clouds and increasing sun during the afternoon. Less humid. Highs 77-84. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

A series of disturbances moving northwest to southeast across the region bring a daily opportunity for showers and thunderstorms July 27-29 with variable temperatures not departing all that far from normal overall. Uncertainty at this time for the July 30-31 period with medium range guidance split in vastly differing scenarios, one of which puts low pressure just south of the region and high pressure to the north – a cool/damp set-up, while another brings a drier westerly air flow in. The second scenario is favored based on climatology as well as a better performance by the model predicting it of late. This outlook is low confidence and subject to change.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

Regardless of the scenario to end July, looking for a fairly zonal mid summer pattern, seasonably warm to hot weather and a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities in the early days of August.

C-19 Chat Post – July 22 2020

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 21-25)

High pressure builds from the Great Lakes to just south of New England through tonight, and while today will still be very warm to hot, it will be less humid and more comfortable. Cloudiness will make a come-back on Wednesday ahead of a warm front which will also bring a risk of showers, a slight risk of thunderstorms, and a return to higher humidity, which lasts through Thursday until a cold front passes by at night. It’s difficult to say where the warm front will be at any given time, but from later Wednesday through Wednesday night, we run the risk of an isolated severe storm or two near it and should keep a close eye out for this. Ahead of the cold front, expect a continued shower/thunderstorm risk during Thursday. Somewhat cooler and significantly drier air arrives behind that cold front for Friday. High pressure builds in with continued fair and pleasant mid summer weather for Saturday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 85-92 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 60-67. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog lower elevations. Less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

A trough of low pressure may bring a passing shower or thunderstorm July 26. Fair July 27. Another disturbance brings a shower / thunderstorm threat July 28 before drier weather arrives again at the end of the period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

West to northwest flow aloft, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot mid summer pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but drier than average overall for most of the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 21 2020

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 20-24)

A weak cold front will cross southeastern New England today and this evening, slicing into the hot & humid air we have in place. This will trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity, and timing suggests that maximum heating will result in the greatest chance of heavier showers and storms will occur from the I-95 belt southeastward during the afternoon. Drying takes place tonight, and Tuesday will be very warm and moderately humid, but noticeably more comfortable than today will be. Both tonight and Tuesday night should afford better opportunities to view Comet NEOWISE which appears in the northwesterly sky below the Big Dipper, visible to the naked eye if you have a fairly unobstructed view after 9:35 into the early morning hours. Cloudiness will make a come-back on Wednesday ahead of a warm front which will also bring a risk of showers and a return to higher humidity, which lasts through Thursday until a cold front passes by at night. Ahead of that front, expect a shower/thunderstorm risk. Somewhat cooler and significantly drier air will arrive beyond that cold front on Friday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with isolated showers. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring the I-95 corridor southeastward. Very humid. Highs 87-94 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Less humid. Lows 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 85-92 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog lower elevations. Less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

A warm front brings increasing clouds July 25 with a risk of a shower at night. A cold front follows for July 26 with higher humidity and a risk for showers and thunderstorms. A west northwest flow means quick-moving summertime weather systems heading toward the end of the month so timing is suspect but expecting dry weather and low humidity for July 27, a quick return to humidity with a shower and thunderstorm risk July 28, then drier again at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

West to northwest flow aloft, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot mid summer pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but drier than average overall for most of the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 20 2020

8:21AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 19-23)

You won’t find any changes to the forecast posted yesterday, so here’s a quick summary. Yesterday was the first hotter day of the stretch we’re in now, although the dew points did drop off during the day in many areas, keeping it more comfortable than it will turn out during the next 2 days. Heat/humidity increases today and the combination of both peaks Monday, which will also be a day that carries a shower and thunderstorm risk as a weak cold front approaches. This front will take the edge off the heat and drop the humidity back somewhat by Tuesday. A warm front approach Wednesday with more cloudiness and a shower risk, along with increasing humidity, which hangs around through Thursday as a cold front approaches, along with another risk of showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Very humid. Highs 88-95. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Party cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early, favoring southern MA & RI. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Highs 85-92, except cooler some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

High pressure brings drier air and fair weather July 24. Warm front / cold front combo brings a risk of showers / thunderstorms and higher humidity for the July 25-26 weekend. High pressure brings drier air and fair weather back by July 27 with a quick return to humidity and a shower/thunderstorm risk at the end of the period about July 28.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

West to northwest flow aloft, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but drier than average overall for most of the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 19 2020

8:21AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 18-22)

3 days of summer heat (will be an official heatwave for any areas that reach or exceed 90 all 3 days). High pressure brings plenty of sun both today and Sunday and the air coming from the southwest will carry increasing humidity by Sunday. Today, we’ll actually see the dew point drop off a little bit as a batch of drier air arrives despite the increasing heat. The most uncomfortable of the 3 days will be Monday when that will be the maximum combination of heat and humidity, dew points closer to or just over 70, and we will also have to add in the risk of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with an approaching trough of low pressure. This will push through Monday night and break the heat and humidity to some degree (no pun intended) Tuesday. A warm front approaches Wednesday with more cloudiness and a limited risk of showers.

TODAY: Any fog dissipates by 9AM, otherwise sunny. Moderately humid then drying slightly. Highs 86-93, but turning cooler in many coastal areas this afternoon. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Moderately humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Very humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Party cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Highs 85-92, except cooler some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

A cold front approaches and passes through the region July 23 with higher humidity and a risk of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure brings drier air and fair weather July 24. Warm front / cold front combo brings a risk of showers / thunderstorms and higher humidity for the July 25-26 weekend. High pressure brings drier air and fair weather back by July 27.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

West to northwest flow aloft, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but drier than average overall for most of the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 18 2020

2:25PM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 17-21)

Apologies for the late update today. A quick weather summary since the day is half over. no significant changes to the forecast anyway as we have a warm front moving through the region today with lots of clouds. Most of the shower activity occurred this morning but a spot shower cannot be ruled out from here on. Clouds may try to break for some especially west of Boston later in the day. The heat is on for the weekend and Monday. The weekend will feature humid but rain free weather. We will introduce the chance of showers and thunderstorms It’s a front approaches on Monday. Behind that front the humidity level will drop in the heat will come down a little bit for Tuesday.

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. More humid. Highs 70-77. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 85-92, but turning cooler in many coastal areas during the afternoon. Wind SW up to 10 MPH except coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler Cape Cod / South Coast. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Party cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Highs 85-92, except cooler some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, but rain-free much of the time July 22-23, humid but not as hot. Drier air will likely push in from Canada late next week with a push from a little stronger west northwest upper air flow.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

West to northwest flow aloft, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but drier than average overall for most of the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 17 2020