C-19 Chat Post – September 23 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Discussion…

In the shadow of a hurricane. That’s exactly where we find our eastern locations this early morning as the sunrise was hidden by the cloud deck on the western edge of Hurricane Teddy, passing by us far to the east today on its journey northward toward the Maritime Provinces of Canada. Teddy is starting its transition to a cold core storm, and is already a large storm in size so it will serve to keep a gusty northerly breeze going over us today. Despite the shield of cloudiness, which will start to move out later today, rainfall associated with the storm will be missing us very far to the east… Say goodbye to summer today as the autumnal equinox occurs at 9:30AM. However, the first few full days of fall will have more of a summer feel again, as we get back into a warmer westerly air flow by midweek, and a cold front making a run at the region Friday runs out of gas while ambling its way across the region late Friday, never quite bringing a push of cooler air fully in from the north as I thought may happen previously, so even Saturday looks like a mild day.

Details…

TODAY: High cloudiness will blot out the sun to start the day then eventually give way to more sun later. Highs 61-68. Wind N 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Remote chance of a passing shower. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27- OCTOBER 1)

Fair, warmer than average weather expected with high pressure to south September 27. A 3-day transition to end September with a few rounds of showers and even a few thunderstorms possible as a trough moves eastward across the region. A drier but cooler than average start to October based on current timing as a cool air mass arrives from Canada with the trough’s passage.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Expecting high pressure to be in general control with mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – September 22 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Discussion…

The final full day of summer will have the same autumn feel the weekend did as we are still immersed in a polar air mass from Canada, which will be around for Tuesday as well, the day of the autumnal equinox, as the extratropical version of Hurricane Teddy passes well east of New England. But extratropical storms have most often expanded from their smaller tropical selves, and we’ll definitely feel that in the form of an increased breeze and some high cloudiness on Tuesday as the storm passes by on its way to Nova Scotia, where a sizeable wind/rain storm will occur Wednesday. No rain for us though, more more breezy weather Wednesday, though with the wind starting to shift more to the west with time, you’ll notice it warming up over the last several days. By Thursday, the feel of summer will be back, comparatively, as the wind will be lighter and from the west. The warmth will last through Friday when a cold front pushes into the region with some clouds, but only the slightest risk of a passing shower. Another thing we will notice is the sky getting a hazier look again this week due to high altitude smoke from western US wildfires. We’ll already have some of it in the sky today that has taken an indirect rough into Canada and is now being pulled southward into the northeastern US. Another surge of it will arrive by the middle of the week from the west, although not to the degree we saw it last week. Reminder: Rough surf continues at the coast through at least Tuesday, but will begin to calm down by midweek as Teddy moves by and finally away. Another reminder: With the persistent dry weather, the fire danger is high.

Details…

TODAY: Sunshine and thin high altitude smoke. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 61-68. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Remote chance of a passing shower. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

High pressure will control the weather during the September 26-27 weekend but with air on the milder side, just briefly cooler early Saturday. The final 3 days of September bring some risk of unsettled weather as a temporary shift in the pattern puts high pressure offshore and brings a trough toward the region from the west. More detail as this gets closer, but don’t expect a drought-breaking rainfall and a long term pattern shift.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)

A return to a dry pattern with variable temperatures as October arrives.

C-19 Chat Post – September 21 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Discussion…

We’ve got ourselves a chilly end to summer 2020 with below normal temperatures continuing through Tuesday, the day of the autumnal equinox, after which we will flip to a warmer pattern for a while. Why? Simple. We’ll have a persistent northeasterly to northerly air flow of polar air from Canada until Hurricane Teddy loses tropical characteristics and passes close to eastern Nova Scotia as an ordinary low pressure area, after which the wind will become more westerly here and we will warm up with our air’s source region being a much warmer midwestern US by midweek. Any rain? Not for the next 5 days. Fire danger will be high and drought will worsen. And a reminder that while still powerful Hurricane Teddy is making its way northward, passing east of Bermuda and into the waters far east of New England, it will send large ocean swells and rough surf to our coastline during the next few days.

Details…

TODAY: Passing clouds in some coastal areas otherwise sunny. Highs 57-64. Dew point near 30. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and ground fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lower elevations, 40-47 elsewhere. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Dew point near 40. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Cold front comes through September 25 but probably with dry weather, then high pressure dominates for the September 26-27 weekend with dry weather, a briefly cooler shot of air, then warming back up again. Currently watching for a temporary pattern shift that would put high pressure offshore, a front west of New England, and open up a channel for some tropical moisture and potential rainfall around September 28-29.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

A return to a dry pattern with variable temperatures as October arrives.

C-19 Chat Post – September 20 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Discussion…

The final weekend of summer will feel more like a weekend in early October, and in some cases it may look like it, as some of the drought-stressed trees are starting to show color. As some locations reach the 30s, and even a few typical colder spots head for the freezing point for low temperatures Sunday morning, we’ll be seeing not only the leaves turning early but some of the first sub-40-degree air about 1 to 2 weeks ahead of what is considered the average date of occurrence. So, autumn is definitely getting a jump on us. But wait, is it really? This is a cool interlude, and will last several days, prolonged by the passage of Hurricane Teddy well east of New England early next week. As the storm heads for Nova Scotia and loses tropical characteristics, its wind field will expand, as transitioning cyclones have happen, and that will keep the cool northerly air flow going here through Tuesday. The only impact we are going to see from Teddy will be large ocean swells and rough surf along our coast, especially east-facing shores, building this weekend and peaking during Monday and Tuesday. So if you are planning an end-of-summer beach visit, please keep this in mind. While the air will be a bit chilly to draw most people into entering the water, if you are in or near the water, it will be risky, and is not recommended. If you choose to view the rough surf, please do so from a safe location! Getting a few good pics and/or video is not work risking your life for. As for the actual weather, besides the cool spell – oh yes, more of the same: dry weather for the entire 5-day period and the drought rolls on and worsens. The cool spell will come to an end Wednesday when the wind shifts to the west and drives warmer air in. We’ll also see a smoke-free sky for several days as the smoke plume from the western US wildfires has been pushed to the south of New England.

Details…

TODAY: Some ocean cloud bands South Shore & Cape Cod otherwise sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point near 30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost and ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 32-37 interior lowest elevations, 38-43 most other locations except 44-49 urban centers. Dew point near 30. Wind NE decreasing to under 10 MPH except 10-15 MPH in coastal areas.

SUNDAY: Passing clouds in some coastal areas otherwise sunny. Highs 57-64. Dew point near 30. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and ground fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lower elevations, 40-47 elsewhere. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Dew point near 40. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Dry and warm September 24. A cold front brings the risk of a shower September 25 then a shot of cooler air follows with. Expecting high pressure to dominate for the September 26-27 weekend with a cool start then warming up. Next disturbance may bring unsettled weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Lower confidence forecast here but looking for fair weather to end September and the potential for a couple days of unsettled weather to start October. But I do not see a switch to a wetter pattern any time soon.

C-19 Chat Post – September 19 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Discussion…

On yesterday’s discussion I mentioned that we’d see more cloudiness, starting with a shield of high cloudiness from the remains of Hurricane Sally. That indeed came along and combined with the smoke to limit the sunshine, which did not disappear as dramatically as it had in the smoke-only sky of the previous 2 days. The cloudiness thickened up overnight across southern areas, enough to produce a little bit of light, non-beneficial rainfall across the Cape Cod region first thing this morning. But in “blink-and-you’ll-miss-it” fashion, it will be gone soon, like it never even happened. Meanwhile, I spoke of a deck of cloudiness at mid levels heading toward the region in association with a cold front coming from Canada, and that deck of clouds is crossing the region now and will take all morning to do so. It even has retained enough moisture for a few sprinkles of rain, which may or may not be reaching the ground, parts of south central NH – another exceedingly non-beneficial “rain event” as our drought continues to worsen. What will change is the 2 warmer days we had will be a memory, as we head into a period of below normal temperatures today into early next week. I must also mention Hurricane Teddy, the second major hurricane of the season-to-date. This hurricane, while threatening Bermuda, will probably end up having less impact on the island than Paulette did, as it is likely to track just far enough east to keep the island out of the worst of it. For New England, it will produce another period of large ocean swells and rough surf, as is typical for a hurricane over the western Atlantic. This will likely impact our coastline at least through the weekend. So maybe it is a good thing that our final weekend of summer will feel more like early October, as going into the ocean water on a final beach weekend get-away will be very risky and is not recommended. If you chose to observe the rough surf, please do so safely. And in case somewhere you may have seen “alternate scenario” maps (I did), having the storm come much closer to New England, close enough impact for wind/rain impact no, Teddy is not going to come close enough for direct impact on this area. It will serve to keep a northerly air flow going into early next week, prolonging our cool spell, along with causing the rough surf. The land mass in North America that should be on the look out for a possible direct impact is Nova Scotia. One final note, we will finally see the western US wildfire smoke plume pushed out of our area during the course of the day today as a Canadian air mass arrives, and it will stay away at least through early next week. But those fires will be burning for a while, so we probably have not seen the last of it…

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning including brief rain Cape Cod region and a possible sprinkle southern NH. Clearing trend northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Dew point falling through 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog possible interior lowest elevations. Lows 38-45 except 45-50 urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point upper 30s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost and ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 inland lowest elevations, 43-48 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH inland, 5-15 MPH coast.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Dew point 30s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and ground fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lower elevations, 40-47 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

A warmer westerly air flow takes over for the start of the period with dry weather September 23-24. A disturbance may bring a few showers September 25 and an air mass change to cooler again for the September 26-27 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Overall pattern looks fairly zonal with west to east air flow, a warm-up to end September and a cool-down to start October, based on current timing, and probably only a risk of brief wet weather with air mass change as the long term dry pattern continues.

C-19 Chat Post – September 18 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Discussion…

The western US wildfire smoke plume continues over our area through tonight, with one difference from the preceding couple of days in that there will be some actual clouds sharing the sky with it, first from the outer reaches of TD Sally which is now accelerating northeastward across the US Southeast and will pass offshore and south of New England during Friday. In addition, we’ll see an increase in mid level cloudiness from an approaching cold front from Canada by tonight. This front is likely to come through rain-free but will put an end to a brief warm up, bringing in a fresh Canadian air mass for Friday and the weekend. The dip in the jet stream helping to push this new air in will also serve to push the smoke plume out, and our sky, starting with cloudiness and still some lingering smoke aloft on Friday should end up turning much more blue before the end of that day. This will set up a bright weekend with crisp and cool air, so we will observe the last weekend of summer feeling very much like autumn. Meanwhile, Hurricane Teddy, the strongest of what is left active in the Atlantic, will be making its way northwestward in the general direction of Bermuda over the next few days. My early take on this system is that its center will pass east of the island, sparing them a hit as hard as Paulette gave them, however that’s no final call. Regardless of its track with respect to Bermuda, the jet stream may try to capture it as it loses tropical characteristics and pull it westward far enough to keep our air flow mainly from the north into the start of next week, prolonging our shot of cool air as we reach the final full day of summer on Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Sunshine will be limited by smoke aloft as well as some high clouds. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Smoke aloft. More clouds arrive. Lows 55-62. Dew point upper 50s evening, falling to near 50 overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Clearing of both clouds and smoke aloft from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Highs 62-69. Dew point falling through 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Dew point falling to upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Dew point upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost and ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 inland lowest elevations, 43-50 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH inland, 5-15 MPH coast.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost and ground fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior lower elevations, 40-47 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

High pressure centered to the northwest and offshore low pressure (Teddy) brings a cool northerly air flow to the region but with dry weather September 22, then high pressure sinks to the south and the low pulls away and we get a warmer westerly air flow with continued dry weather September 23. A cold front and a trough may pass by with some cloudiness and a risk of a brief shower during the September 24-25 period and should be replaced with another cool air mass. The only caveat this far in advance as we’ll need to watch Gulf of Mexico moisture for a potential trip into the eastern US near the end of this period, but odds favor a drier scenario.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

This 11-15 day segment now includes the first of October, and a day that will be the first of 2 full moons in October 2020 – something we’ll talk about later along with some other significant celestial happenings for the month. As far as the weather pattern for the final days of September and to start October, still looking dry to me as high pressure remains the main player. This will continue to contribute to a worsening drought and higher fire danger.

C-19 Chat Post – September 17 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Discussion…

The western US wildfire smoke plume in our sky peaks today, diminishes Thursday, and will be gone by the end of the week, due to a shift in the jet stream and a clean Canadian air mass arriving. Before that, we have 2 warmer days today and Thursday, although the smoke plume reflecting some of the solar radiation back into space will not allow temperatures to reach their potential highs had the sky but clear. Nevertheless, it will still be on the warm side and these are 2 good candidates for end-of-summer beach days. Although if you should travel to the coast today, I caution you that some lingering rough surf and resultant high rip current risk will exist due to offshore Hurricane Paulette. When a cold front crosses the region Thursday night, it will do so with cloudiness but no rain, it will usher in a cool air mass, and it will play a part in deflecting what could have been beneficial rain associated with the remains of Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Sally south of New England. In fact, the push of cool air will be strong enough that some interior lower elevations may see their first frost by Sunday morning, and Sunday’s high temperatures may struggle to reach 60 in some of the hilly terrain northwest of Boston – a pretty autumn-like feel to the final weekend of summer for sure.

Details…

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear except high level smoke and ground level fog patches. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke thins, sun gets brighter, and a few clouds arrive late-day. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Dew point briefly near 60 then falling to lower 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Dew point lower 50s to upper 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Dew point falling to upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Dew point upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost and ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42 inland lowest elevations, 43-50 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Dew point lower to middle 30s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Dew point 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

One thing to watch early in the period is offshore tropical activity as it starts to transition into post-tropical low pressure. There may be a brief period of retrogression allowing a broad low pressure circulation to get a little closer to the coast – probably not close enough for rainfall as it stands now, but potentially close enough for some wind and ocean wave impact. By mid period we should be back into a warmer and more tranquil westerly air flow before a cold front approaches with a shower September 24 or 25.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Overall pattern remains dry, governed by high pressure. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – September 16 2020