C-19 Chat Post – September 8 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-11)

If you look at the satellite & radar across the Northeast & Great Lakes first thing this morning you see a big batch of cloudiness to our west, approaching the region, with a significant batch of showers with those clouds. And has been the case with many approaching systems this summer, it will pretty much disappear before reaching us. This is the front that nearly a week ago I put in my extended forecast as having a shot at giving us a chance of a shower or thunderstorm to end the long weekend. And we were are, Labor Day, the “unofficially” final day of the summer season, which ironically was the longest summer season possible, when you go from Memorial Day as its beginning to Labor Day as its ending. And while this year has been anything by typical, I do hope that those of you with today off have a chance to get out and enjoy some wonderful weather we’ll have, courtesy high pressure, which as previously mentioned, will be our main weather controller, and this is not going to change for some time. In fact, it will feel even more like summer tomorrow into midweek as the high center shifts to a position that allows it to warm up with somewhat increased humidity. By later Thursday, a cold front will approach, and this may set off a shower or thunderstorm, but I expect this front to be lacking activity and many areas may remain rain-free during its passage. High pressure will build in Friday with a return to drier, pleasant weather.

TODAY – LABOR DAY: Early morning fog patches in low lying locations, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S up 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog forming over interior low lying locations (swamps, bogs, riverbeds). Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind near calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a few showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring late-day. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible through late evening. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 67-74. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

High pressure will be in control to start next weekend on September 12, and may hold its ground keeping the next approaching system from the west (and another to the south) at bay through September 13 as well. And while it’s still many days away, I’ll also go with the trend of those approaching systems being less impactful than recently shown on models, so that there is just a chance of some shower activity around the region on September 14. Another minor system may approach and pass through from west to east later in the period in a strengthening zonal pattern across the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Zonal flow pattern expected with low amplitude trough bringing a cooler interlude early in the period followed by low amplitude ridge bringing a warm-up as we get to the final few days of astronomical summer (autumnal equinox is September 22).

C-19 Chat Post – September 7 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Overall, we will remain under the influence of high pressure more than anything else during the next 5 days, but one slight adjustment to today’s forecast is a bit more cloudiness, especially this morning, as an upper level disturbance crosses the region. This may hold temperatures down a few degrees over the previous forecast, but not significantly. We’re also looking at very nice weather for the Labor Day holiday itself on Monday, as well as Tuesday, although on Tuesday, those sensitive to higher humidity will notice that it has come up somewhat. That humidity rise will continue into the middle of the coming week when the shower threat will go up somewhat. However, I’m not looking for any widespread heavy rainfall at this time. The greatest chance for a brief heavier bout of rainfall could come on Thursday with the approach of a cold front.

TODAY: Lots of clouds morning, more sun afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy with patchy fog early, then sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 74-81, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a few showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 73-80. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

One cold front makes it through by early September 11 with a push of drier air for that day. High pressure should be in control of the weather to start the September 12-13 weekend but may give way to another increase in moisture and a frontal system with a risk of showers to end the weekend. Early the following week, high pressure should bring dry weather September 14 before the next disturbance arrives with clouds and a chance of showers September 15.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Transition to a faster-flowing zonal pattern is possible during this period, which would mean a few air mass changes, but overall below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures. We’ll still have to eye any potential tropical activity off the East Coast.

C-19 Chat Post – September 6 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

High pressure will be dominant, but its position and resultant air flow will be the determining factor in the details of our day to day weather. Initially, high pressure will have an elongated center across the Ohio Valley with eastward extension enough to give our area a generally westerly air flow to start the Labor Day Weekend, after which the initial high pressure area will slide to the east, turning our wind flow more southerly later in the weekend (including Monday). What I once thought would be a cold front swinging through sometime late Monday or early Tuesday will barely survive the trip into New England, only serving as a door opening to high pressure shifting its center to the Canadian Maritimes and east of New England by Tuesday and Wednesday, which will bring a more east to southeast air flow into the region, resulting in an increase in humidity, but not to oppressive levels. If there is any chance of rainfall, it will be Wednesday, in the form of showers, with the increased moisture in the region, but don’t expect any beneficial rainfall any time soon, and certainly not during the next 5 days.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 40s. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind W to SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW to S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy with patchy fog early, then sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 74-81, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

“Lazy” pattern sees slower changes. Predominant high pressure aloft near the East Coast means generally above normal temperatures. A humid southerly air flow starts the period with limited shower chances September 10-11. A cold front’s timing looks a lot slower than previously and it may never quite completely make it across the region during the September 12-13 weekend, but should bring a risk of showers and possible thunderstorms at some point during that weekend with a drier weather to follow.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Still looking at high pressure being dominant with generally below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures during mid month.

C-19 Chat Post – September 5 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Discussion…

A quiet weather pattern with a lack of rainfall is not good news for drought relief, but the timing of it with regard to this 5-day period is great for those with outdoor plans in and around the Labor Day Weekend. The only “weather system” that we will have to deal with is a cold front that comes through between late Monday and early Tuesday, probably with no rainfall. Otherwise its high pressure in control with a summery warm day today, a bit cooler Saturday, and warmer after that, though it may cool off again especially in coastal locations Tuesday with more of an onshore air flow.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

High pressure shifts southward, offshore of the Northeast, and increases the warmth and humidity September 9-10 with eventually a risk of a shower or thunderstorm as a cold front approaches later September 10. This front should move offshore with a new high pressure area bringing fair and drier weather for September 11 followed by dry but warmer weather for the September 12-13 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

General pattern is likely to feature high pressure aloft along the US East Coast with a westerly flow over New England. This pattern is mainly dry with above normal temperatures for our region.

C-19 Chat Post – September 4 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

Discussion…

I did not give the current weather system passing through the region nearly enough credit. Not that we are getting a couple days of soaking rainfall, but while yesterday ended up being more productive for rain than I thought, today may do the same, so you’ll notice today’s forecast for today looking a little less sunny and a little more showery than yesterday’s forecast for today. Sometimes in the short-range the weather can be “uncooperative”, just as it more regularly does in medium and certainly longer range attempts to uncover its mysteries. But be that what it is, we go on. So now we have high humidity in place and a frontal boundary that drifted eastward into the region with occasional showers during the overnight hours, and will now only drift eastward across the remainder of the region today as a little wave of low pressure forms on it and moves to the northeast. This means that the partly sunny and humid day that I’d been forecasting is now to be a mostly cloudy day with showers a little more likely and also somewhat earlier in the day than I had been expecting. Another, stronger front comes along from the west tonight though to clear the conglomeration out and push everything off to the east. This will open the door for drier air to move in, though Friday will have the feel of mid summer as the air will be quite warm, even feeling a bit hot. High pressure tracks from the Ohio Valley to south of New England then off the coast during the course of the Labor Day Weekend, and even though a cold front will approach the region later on Labor Day itself, at the moment it looks like all three days will be rain-free, starting out a little cooler Saturday (compared to Friday) before we warm right back up again thereafter.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially this morning. A few episodes of showers and a risk of thunderstorms. favoring late morning through early afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point falling through 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

High pressure centered northeast of New England will bring fair and slightly cooler weather September 8 then the high will shift southward and a southerly air flow will bring warmer and more humid weather in by September 9-10, but September 10 featuring a shower and thunderstorm risk as a cold front moves into the region from the west. High pressure follows this with more fair weather, slightly cooler September 11 and warmer again September 12.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

General pattern is likely to feature high pressure aloft along the US East Coast with a westerly flow over New England. This pattern is mainly dry with above normal temperatures for our region.

C-19 Chat Post – September 3 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

Discussion…

Low pressure passes north of New England today through tonight. It parents a warm front which moves through our region today bringing a mainly overcast sky with a period of showers. While not a widespread beneficial rain, it looks as if most areas will see at least a period of showers, and a few of them may even be moderate. This move out later today but introduces higher humidity to the region. What used to be a cold front will pass through the region tonight. Showers and thunderstorms that visit New York State will struggle to survive their trip eastward through our area, but a few may make it in. There is not much of an air mass change behind this. In fact, if anything with more sun and higher humidity Thursday, it’ll feel more like the middle of summer. A more meaningful cold front will cross the region Thursday night, and while support is not likely to be that good for shower and thunderstorm activity, the front will knock the dew point down during Friday, which itself will still be a very warm day, and we’ll be waiting for a “quiet” trough of low pressure to pass by Friday night to knock the temperature back a few notches for the start of the Labor Day Weekend on Saturday as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. This high, unlike any that have been north of us this summer to start with, will slide quickly south of the region and warm it right back up bit a bit more humidity again by Sunday, although both Saturday and Sunday will feature lots of sun.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy with episodes of showers, diminishing later in the day with clouds may break. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts especially later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower including a slight risk of a thunderstorm west of Boston. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-495 late-day. Highs 82-89. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point upper 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Predominant pattern as high pressure aloft off the East Coast this period. Surface pattern brings a cold front toward the region Labor Day September 7, but any shower activity may hold off until late day or at night. High pressure noses in from the north with fair weather and drier air September 8 before sliding offshore with warmer and more humid weather mid period before another cold front arrives around September 10 with a shower threat and brings drier air for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Continued larger scale pattern of high pressure mostly off the East Coast but surface high pressure following a familiar pattern we’ve seen the last few months. This period likely features below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures. Too soon to know day-to-day weather but would lean toward shower threats around September 13 and 15.

C-19 Chat Post – September 2 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

Discussion…

With a warmer and drier than average meteorological summer in the books, we move onto the next meteorological season, the first month of which is still holding astronomical summer days as its majority. Ah well, who said us weather people were not a little bit off balance. Maybe we have to be to do this silly prediction thing every day. 😛 Regardless, there is weather to be prognosticated, so let’s get to it! The high pressure area that brought us comfortable weather to end the month of August has shifted to the east, but its center, like many before it during the summer, is far enough north that we’ll have an easterly to southeasterly air flow for a couple days, keeping temperatures in check, but allowing humidity to creep up a bit. This will also occur with variable to considerable cloud cover at times, but little if any precipitation, another theme we’ve gotten used to as we remain in drought. By midweek, we will find that the high has shifted far enough southeast that we have a warm and humid southwesterly flow by Thursday and a slightly less humid but very warm westerly air flow by Friday. During this time, a couple of cold fronts will push into the region from the west, the first one bringing a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday, with slightly drier air behind it, and the second one coming through Friday night probably without any shower threat, but bringing the temperature down somewhat as we reach the first day of the Labor Day Weekend Saturday, and a new bubble of high pressure approaches from the west, this one staying more to the southwest unlike many of its predecessors.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy but some sun as well. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Patchy fog/drizzle. Highs 70-77. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-495 late-day. Highs 82-89. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Predominant pattern as high pressure aloft off the East Coast. High pressure at the surface passes south of the region September 6-7 of the Labor Day Weekend with warmer and more humid weather, and a cold front approaching on September 7 may bring a shower or thunderstorm threat. High pressure builds in with dry and slightly cooler weather September 8, then a quick warm up and increased humidity as the high shifts offshore. Another cold front approaches late period with a risk of a shower/t-storm.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Overall large scale pattern doesn’t change too much with a warmer than average temperature regime overall and a few, but limited shower chances.

C-19 Chat Post – September 1 2020