C-19 Chat Post – October 24 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Discussion…

High pressure centered to the north of New England will continue to send an easterly air flow into the region today, but a batch of somewhat drier air will help to dissipate the cloudiness from east to west as we move through the day before it returns tonight as the high center slips southeastward and our air flow turns more southerly. Cloudiness will continue to be dominant through much of Saturday in a slightly more humid southerly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front. While this is a fairly sharp front, it does not have alot of support for producing much in the way of rain shower activity. What it will definitely do is introduce a much cooler air mass by the end of the day Saturday, which will then be with us through Sunday as an area of high pressure sends polar air into the region via eastern Canada. This high center, like its predecessor, will slip southeastward by Monday and Tuesday when we will see a return to cloudiness and some unsettled weather, although it appears any rain will be significantly limited. This rather dry 5-day period will allow drought conditions, which recently improved slightly, to worsen once again.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and a chance of very light drizzle morning. Clearing east to west midday-afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest at the coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance for a passing rain shower. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts from west to east.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28- NOVEMBER 1)

Currently thinking drier for October 28 as high pressure noses in between disturbances, then another low ripples along the boundary just to the southeast of the area but close enough for a wet weather chance October 29, followed by a push of dry but chilly air for October 30-31, then moderating but watching for a possible low pressure area bringing a rain chance November 1.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

The overall pattern looks dry, but a shot of colder air is very possible early in the period followed by a moderating trend again.

C-19 Chat Post – October 23 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Discussion…

The dry and mild October weather continues for a few more days, with lower humidity than we saw the last couple of days as high pressure crests north of the area. This also means that a more easterly air flow will develop and will keep coastal areas a little cooler, though not as cool in comparison if this were a springtime easterly wind. The air flow turns more southwesterly ahead of a cold front Saturday – a front that will be moisture starved but won’t lack the ability to let us know when it comes through, as temperature may tumble as much as 30 to 35 degrees off Saturday’s highs to Sunday morning’s lows, and a lot of that temperature drop will occur over a several hour period Saturday evening. So if you have longer-outdoor plans anywhere on Saturday that go into evening, bring a jacket that you won’t need during the day, but will very likely need as evening sets in. This sets up a much cooler day for Sunday with a north to northeast air flow, which turns more easterly to southerly during the course of Monday as once again high pressure passes to the north of the region then moves southeastward to east of New England. We’ll introduce the chance of rain showers on Monday as well as low pressure tracks north of the region and drags a warm front through the region.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75, turning cooler along east-facing shores this afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny middle of day, mostly cloudy finish. An afternoon shower possible in southern NH and northern MA. Highs 66-73. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S late in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

A cold front will be in the region from October 27 to early October 29 with a couple opportunities for rain showers along with drier interludes. A stronger low pressure wave should pull the front offshore during October 29 with a shot of much cooler air arriving and lasing into the last couple days of the month. For now expecting dry weather to end the month, but medium range guidance has been anything but consistent so will keep an eye on trends with that as well as the overall pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

The early days of November look mostly dry with variable temperatures, a milder start, a cool shot, then moderating, based on current timing.

C-19 Chat Post – October 22 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Discussion…

We have plenty of low level moisture for fog & drizzle around the region to start the day today, but not enough lift ahead of a cold front to produce any meaningful showers. That front will get right into the region and may even get all the way through the area by tonight and Thursday, creating a wind shift and putting the area into a different-feeling air mass, in terms of lower humidity, although it will still be mild. A bubble of high pressure moves north of the area on Friday with a light but easterly air flow for the area making it a touch cooler than Thursday, and then Saturday we’re back in a southerly air flow ahead of a cold front. The timing of this front is a little uncertain, with some guidance in recent runs indicating a little faster approach and passage, but with no significant shower activity, as the area will be under the drying influence of air surrounding Hurricane Epsilon which will be passing well southeast of New England this weekend. What that hurricane will do, as others have, is stir up the seas so we’ll have some larger swells and rough surf impacting the coastline during the weekend. Yesterday I was a little concerned about the front Saturday slowing down and being an avenue for additional moisture and a chance of some rainfall for Sunday, but right now it looks like high pressure will have enough push to give us a dry and cooler Sunday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle morning. Mostly cloudy but a few breaks of sun possible afternoon. Humid. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Humid. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Drier air. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny middle of day, mostly cloudy finish. An afternoon shower possible in southern NH and northern MA. Highs 66-73. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a risk of a passing shower, then clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

More questions to be answered heading into the final days of October. High pressure centered north to east of the region early next week should turn winds from easterly to southerly with lots of cloudiness and some damp weather, although at this point I am not looking for any significant rainfall. Around October 28 a stronger front should move through with rain showers then a turn to chilly weather, at least briefly. Another disturbance may already be in the area by the end of the period, but medium range guidance varies vastly on the details of this system, so for now just going to lean toward a chance of unsettled weather to end this period and re-evaluate with new information.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Trends are for a shot of significantly chilly air to end October followed by a moderating trend but mostly dry weather into the early days of November.

C-19 Chat Post – October 21 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Discussion…

We’re having a mild time! This pattern is stuck in place for several more days, basically for this entire 5-day period with high pressure retrograding southwestward from the Canadian Maritimes to the US Mid Atlantic States and a frontal boundary held at bay to the northwest of our area, only close enough to cause a lot of cloudiness and a window of opportunity for rain showers today through early Wednesday, and possibly again by later Saturday as a stronger low pressure area finally makes its way north of our area.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. A few heavier showers and thunderstorms possible RI and southeastern MA. Highs 65-72. Dew point rising to the lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Areas of fog that may become dense with very low visibility in some locations. Lows 53-60. Dewpoint matching temperature in most locations. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog/drizzle & a few rain showers. Partial sunshine midday-afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind near calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear but patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny middle of day, mostly cloudy finish. A passing rain shower possible evening or night. Highs 66-73. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

I’m a little conflicted about how things play out during this 5-day period. Temperatures will be considerably cooler on October 25 but whether we have clearing or some lingering wet weather remains in question at this point. A frontal boundary may linger near the region with some unsettled weather into early next week before a stronger front from the west arrives later in the period with a push of colder air arriving. Still many details to work out.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

A shot of colder air to end October with a few rain & snow showers possible, otherwise mostly dry weather. Fair with a moderating trend following that.

C-19 Chat Post – October 20 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Discussion…

First, I must note today that there will be some King Tide coastal flooding from midday to mid afternoon with one of the highest natural tides of the year. Thankfully, this is occurring without a wave-enhancing storm in the area or somewhere in the western Atlantic, or it would have been more extensive. Weatherwise, the next 5 days are pretty simple to summarize. High pressure will be anchored offshore, and we’ll be in a mild air mass across southeastern New England. A frontal boundary sitting off to our northwest will make several failed attempts to get into the region, producing only varying amounts of cloudiness and a couple minor rain shower threats as small and weak waves of low pressure ripple along the boundary, none of them strong enough to battle the high pressure enough to make it give way. This also means we’re back to a weather pattern that grows a drought instead of reducing it, rendering last week’s helpful events less important with no real follow-ups to keep that momentum going.

Details…

TODAY: Sunshine filtered through high clouds and high altitude smoke. Highs 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 48-55. Wind SE-S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a passing rain shower late-day. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a rain shower at any time. Lows 51-58. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a rain shower in the morning. Highs 65-72. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming in low elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: More sun than clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: More clouds than sun. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Not too suprisingly, our medium range guidance for this period of time now looks quite a bit different than it did a few days ago, hence my caveats about low confidence forecasts and the need for adjustments and fine-tuning. A good lesson to never take medium and longer range outlooks too seriously and anything more than just a best-guess at the time. That’s forecasting! So making a few adjustments with the idea that the entire pattern evolution takes place more slowly leads me to this current idea… Stronger cold front arrives later October 24 with a rain shower risk. Potential wave of low pressure from the south rides along that front and may bring some wet weather into early October 25 before a push of cool/dry air follows it, then with high pressure to the north we get into a more easterly air flow which then turns more southerly allowing for a bit of a warm-up later in the period before another front approaches from the west with the next chance of unsettled weather. No major rain events likely.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

It goes without saying (but I’ll say it anyway) that this period is low confidence because of the adjustments that were needed in the period before it. The pattern going forward reminds me of one we’ve been in a lot. High pressure in control most of the time, below normal rainfall, variable temperatures. Obviously, much fine-tuning will be needed to determine the day-to-day weather as we get closer to the end of October & start of November.

C-19 Chat Post – October 19 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Discussion…

A cold start and a significant temperature recovery today as high pressure crests over the region. The high then slides to the east and opens the door for a more southerly air flow for the following several days, which will include several mostly failed attempts by a frontal boundary to get through the region from the west, so it’s back to a stretch of rain-free weather.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind calm, then SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in low elevation areas. Lows 43-50. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 48-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Stronger cold front approaches, mild air but a chance of rain showers ahead of it October 23. Cooler weather expected October 24-27. Watching low pressure south of the region from later October 24 into October 25-26 that may impact the region with some unsettled weather before drier weather and gusty winds at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

This is a low confidence forecast due to many potential players. Disturbance may bring rain and snow showers early in the period with a cold shot to start, then mainly dry weather with moderating temperatures following that.

C-19 Chat Post – October 18 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Discussion…

Today will be one of those days that looks very different at its conclusion than it does at its beginning. Our second significant rainfall in several days will be coming to a quick end this morning and dry air will return to the region during midday and afternoon, along with a brief shot of wind, bringing in some chilly air. In fact, before the end of the rainfall, some snow has already been mixed in and may continue for a very brief time over highest elevations well northwest of Boston. The wind will drop off quickly tonight as high pressure, centered to the south, noses overhead. This sets up a cold night and beginning to Sunday, but the the high center moving to the east, a milder southwesterly wind flow will take over and the temperature recovery on Sunday will be significant, easily the pick of this weekend. Entering early next week, a mild southerly air flow will be dominant, and a frontal boundary will make 2 failed attempts to get through here as the offshore high pressure system is too strong and the upper level pattern is not set-up in such a way to make it happen.

Details…

TODAY: Overcast with rain (even brief mixed rain/snow higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH), ending quickly by mid to late morning. Becoming partly to mostly sunny midday through afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog forming overnight. Lows 32-39 except 40-45 urban areas. Wind W 10-20 MPH early, diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog low elevation areas. Lows 48-55. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)

A mild southerly air flow will continue October 22 into October 23 before a stronger cold front from the west puts an end to that with a risk of passing rain showers later October 23. A much cooler period October 24-26. Watching for a low pressure area from the south to bring a rain threat as early as late October 24 but more likely October 25 before it clears out at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)

There is the potential for a second ocean storm (possibly born in the tropics at first) most likely passing east of the region but serving to bring down some colder air from Canada. A system from the west may bring some precipitation to the region early in the period (October 27-28). Temperature recovery is possible by the end of the period after the initial push of cold.

C-19 Chat Post – October 17 2020