C-19 Chat Post – October 9 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)

Discussion…

First, to clarify, whether or not yesterday’s event ends up being labelled a “derecho”, it was not one in the classic sense, which are usually self-perpetuating systems, while this one was a squall line on a cold front sustained with the aid of a strong low level jet. Either way, it was a powerful wind event for many, and did cause a lot of damage to very vulnerable trees. And today, as cleanup takes place, it will do so with fair, cool weather conditions, along with a gusty breeze, so please be aware of additional falling branches that may have been weakened or broke but got caught up on other branches when the initial storms came through. This cool and breezy weather is the start of a 2-day stretch of this, although winds will settle down somewhat during tomorrow, only to pick back up again Saturday, but from the southwest, as high pressure slips to the south of New England. After the seasonable chill of today and tomorrow, you’ll notice the feel of summer back for a brief visit on Saturday. But a cold front slips down from the north and a new high pressure area in Canada pokes its cooler self into our area by Sunday. The next question to answer is whether or not moisture from the remains of Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Delta makes it here to New England. It definitely will make it here in the form of clouds, which you’ll probably notice as high cloudiness increasing on Sunday, but the rainfall will probably be significantly reduced before it ever arrives. Current thought is we get into some light rainfall by Monday. Will continue to monitor this.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39 except 40-47 immediate shoreline and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45, except a little milder in urban centers. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (COLUMBUS DAY): Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

The first part of the period is most likely to see unsettled weather due to lingering remnant moisture from Delta and a trough swinging through from the west. The middle to end of the period look seasonably cool/dry. Low to moderate confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

A generally west to east flow with a milder start to the period then a shot of much cooler air later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – October 8 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Discussion…

A cold front sweeps across the region later today. Ahead of it we will have varying amounts of clouds. A rain shower threat exists but is greatest from mid through late afternoon from northwest to southeast across the area. Thunder is possible in any of the heavier showers but the biggest threat today will be wind, becoming gusty ahead of the rain shower threat, but also existing within the shower activity as well when some damaging gusts may occur. Drought-stressed trees still foliated are quite vulnerable to gusty winds at this time. After a mild day ahead of this front, it will turn much cooler tonight and we’ll have 2 cooler days coming up Thursday and Friday, along with a gusty breeze, especially Thursday, as high pressure approaches from the west. The center of this high will slip south of New England by Saturday and we’ll have a day of westerly wind and a significant warm-up. In fact, it will feel a little bit like summer on Saturday. But that won’t last as a cold front slips down from the north, pushed but another high pressure area in Canada, to give us a cool-down by Sunday. While Saturday likely to be a day filled with plenty of sun, Sunday may end up less so, as a lot of high cloudiness may be moving in ahead of the remains of what is currently a major hurricane near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and will have made its way across the Gulf of Mexico and into the southern US later this week.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly afternoon hours. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH and spotty gusts 35-50 MPH Cape Cod area. Brief gusts above 50 MPH are possible with the passage of some of the rain showers.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH evening, diminishing slightly overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39 except 40-47 immediate shoreline and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45, except a little milder in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

A quick look at medium range guidance this morning to give me an idea of what the computers “think” about the moisture from the remains of Hurricane Delta: GFS says rain here October 12 while ECMWF (Euro) has it dry. In fact, the Euro model never brings any rain into this area from that system or any other system through October 16, while the GFS keeps a few showers around through October 14 then has an offshore low with rain nearby but not over the region on October 15 until both models finally agree on dry weather for day 10 (October 16). The fun of guidance, and why the meteorologist has to know what not to believe as much as what to buy into a little bit more. With all of that said, I’ll lean today toward a day of lots of clouds and a slight chance of insignificant remnant rain on October 12 here, and a few rain showers around around October 14 from a passing system from the west, and will agree with both models about a dry ending to the period. Temperatures mostly above normal, cooling to normal later in the period, based on my expected timing of systems.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Looking for a generally zonal (west-to-east) jet stream flow with mostly dry weather and temperatures variable but averaging close to normal.

C-19 Chat Post – October 7 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Discussion…

Weak disturbance move through today with nothing more than some clouds. Cold front moves across the region Wednesday with our only rain chance in this 5-day period. A shot of cooler air Thursday-Friday, followed by a warm-up Saturday, as high pressure makes a trek from west of New England to off the Atlantic Coast during the course of those 3 days.

Details…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly afternoon hours. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH evening, diminishing slightly overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39 except 40-47 immediate shoreline and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42, except a little milder in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Expect above normal temperatures overall. Will any moisture from a Gulf of Mexico tropical system get up here around the middle of the period? Leaning toward no, with it passing to the south of the region, but we may have an opportunity for some wet weather by the end of this period from a trough approaching from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Trough from the west will likely be progressive and maybe even a little faster than some guidance has indicated, so looking for a mostly west-to-east air flow and mostly dry weather with variable temperatures during this time frame.

C-19 Chat Post – October 6 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Discussion…

Low pressure passing southeast of New England this morning has managed to put a little wet weather into far southeastern areas in the form of showers, but this will be heading out soon along with its cause, and high pressure builds in later today through tonight with quickly improving weather. This small area of high pressure will be offshore Tuesday and a weak disturbance will come through the region with some cloudiness and possibly a passing shower in a few locations, while most areas are rain-free. A stronger cold front will approach on Wednesday providing most of the region with the best chance to see any rainfall this week, but while a few of these showers may be on the heavier side and even a thunderstorm is possible, don’t get excited about a drought-busting rainfall. That is still not in the cards for our area. What is in the cards is a shot of much cooler air Thursday and Friday, with some locations possibly close to the freezing point for low temperatures on Friday. A gusty breeze may prevent a solid freeze in vulnerable areas as it may keep the air mixed enough so temperatures don’t drop to their lowest potential in the upper 20s. Something to keep an eye on though since we’re still several days away.

Details…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy start along with rain showers southeastern MA, central and southern RI, and southeastern CT. Partly sunny midday and afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds return overnight. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of ground fog lower elevations. Lows 49-56. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly afternoon hours. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39 except 40-47 immediate shoreline and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

The large scale weather pattern will continue zonal (west to east jet stream with fairly low amplitude). At the surface, high pressure moves offshore and we have a milder October 10-11 weekend with fair weather. This general idea may continue into mid month with a northward-displaced jet stream promoting dry and mild weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Keeping an eye on a possible shift in the jet stream configuration which would start out zonal with mild and dry weather here, followed by a little more amplification and at least some potential for unsettled weather. This is a fairly long-range and therefore only low to moderate confidence outlook so remember that adjustments are likely.

C-19 Chat Post – October 5 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)

Discussion…

Short and simple update for your Sunday. High pressure continues to influence the weather today which will be another nice day to round out the first weekend of October. A couple areas of low pressure will miss connections to become something more important as one passes by to the north with another offshore Monday, pretty much keeping a rain chance from occurring and turning it into a clouds giving way to sun kind of day, fine for doing things outside but not great news for helping our drought. A warm-up takes place as we head toward midweek before a strong cold front sweeps across the region, providing the only rain chance in this 5-day period, in the form of showers, during Wednesday. The delivery of a chilly Canadian air mass occurs behind this front on Thursday with a gusty northwest wind and more dry weather.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower early. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of ground fog lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly afternoon hours. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)

The large scale weather pattern will continue zonal (west to east jet stream with fairly low amplitude). Breezy weather and likely the coolest day of the season-to-date is expected for October 9 before a warm front / cold front combo brings some cloudiness and a warm up October 10 but only a minimal shower threat (probably staying dry), and a minor cool-down for October 11 behind that system. A northward-displaced jet stream allows a quicker warm-up with continued dry weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Keeping an eye on a possible shift in the jet stream configuration which would start out zonal with mild and dry weather here, followed by a little more amplification and at least some potential for unsettled weather. This is a fairly long-range and therefore only low to moderate confidence outlook so remember that adjustments are likely.

C-19 Chat Post – October 4 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Discussion…

High pressure brings nice weather for the first weekend of October. Disorganized low pressure, or 2 areas of low pressure not really getting their act together as a unit, bring some unsettled weather on Monday, but this will not be a beneficial rain event and will move out rather swiftly. Another area of high pressure brings fair weather to the region Tuesday, but things continue to move along quickly in a west-to-east flow pattern and by Wednesday, low pressure will be passing north of New England, and we’ll have a quick warm-up before a strong cold front brings a risk of showers and even a possible thunderstorm by the end of the day.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of ground fog lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm afternoon and evening. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)

The large scale weather pattern will continue zonal (west to east jet stream with fairly low amplitude). Expect high pressure to build toward the region October 8-9 with a shot of much cooler air along with wind that finally settles down later October 9. A warm front / cold front combo with a quickly moving disturbance will bring clouds and a minor rain threat back on October 10 followed by breezy and cooler with dry weather October 11 then dry and milder weather October 12.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Continued zonal pattern but northward-displaced jet stream is the expected set-up which would be a dry and mild pattern which may shift cooler again later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – October 3 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Discussion…

As expected, the new Drought Monitor report issued yesterday shows all of the WHW forecast area in moderate to severe drought, and this will not be improving anytime soon with only 2 minor rain events in the next 5 days and a long-term dry pattern ongoing. The first of the 2 minor rain events will be later today as 2 pieces of energy stay far apart, one escaping well offshore while another passes northwest of our area and just drags cloudiness and a brief episode of showers through the region. High pressure builds in for a nice weekend, and then a similar situation to today happens Monday with non-merging energy. This one could have turned into a more important storm had it had a better chance to come together, but it’s not in the cards, so look for some unsettled weather Monday with a period of rain or showers, but again nothing drought-busting. High pressure returns Tuesday with more fair weather.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. A few patches of fog interior lower elevations. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)

A fairly zonal (west to east) flow will be the dominant weather pattern. Warmer October 7 but a late day or evening episode of showers and even possible thunderstorms with a cold front approaching and passing through. Breezy, cool, dry October 8 as high pressure approaches. Fair, cool, less wind October 9 as high pressure moves overhead. A warm front / cold front combo with a quickly moving disturbance will bring clouds and a minor rain threat back on October 10 followed by breezy and cooler with dry weather October 11, based on current timing of features.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Continued zonal pattern but northward-displaced jet stream is the expected set-up which would be a dry and mild to warm pattern for mid October. With poor model performance this is only a moderate-confidence outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – October 2 2020