C-19 Chat Post – November 23 2020

I can say every year that this is a hard forecast, but that has become redundant. There is no “easy” long range forecast. So with that in mind, onto the one for the upcoming winter.

OVERVIEW

The greatest factor in this winter’s weather is likely to be the ENSO phase, which is now La Nina (central-east based), with this expected to be the case through the winter, including March. I have factored in the pattern that has been ongoing since about mid October into late November, with La Nina in place, and this has given me some clues. Other factors influencing this long range forecast are the QBO (Quasi-biennial Oscillation), stratospheric winds in the tropical regions, in their westerly phase at this time with this likely to continue through winter as well. Other significant factors in place include below normal Arctic sea ice and below normal Siberian early season snow, but above average snow cover in North America. We are just coming off a solar minimum (low sunspot activity) and entering the upswing phase, although the activity overall will continue on the low side for the winter. Three wildcard factors: 1) Anomalous warm water in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. 2) Anomalous cool water pool in the central Pacific, northwest of Hawaii, related to a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that has been somewhat neutral but is having a trend to positive, which is a phase featuring warmer water off the US West Coast and cooler water in the central Pacific. 3) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is a measure of movement of regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, has been in a very weak phase for some time, and indications are that this will continue for a while, but this index can be somewhat unpredictable and can become more of a factor with little warning, so its impact may become more influential as we move into and through winter. Further factors which we can get an idea of based on the above are less predictable in the longer term, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), will be factors as well, but I can’t say with any confidence that I can tell what phases these will be in as we go through the winter. What I can say is that the factors previously mentioned weigh toward a frequently positive phase for both AO & NAO. The positive AO is a polar vortex (PV) that is strong and rather tight to the pole, keeping the coldest of the arctic air bottled up. However, the lack of sea ice is a catalyst for causing the PV to become unstable at times, potentially sending the AO into intervals of negative phase. This will be something we’ll have to watch for. Another factor in helping to determine this is sunspot activity. With the solar activity, while still not far from its relative minimum, starting to increase, the chance of a burst of energy from the sun increases, and it has been shown that a strong pulse of energy from the sun can correlate with keeping the AO positive. Will the low sea ice and increasing solar activity have to “fight it out” at any point? We can’t know that in advance, only monitor for the possibility. Similarly, the NAO would like to stay in its positive phase (little or no high latitude blocking) under many of the conditions mentioned above, but a disruption of the PV, or the MJO heading into certain phases in a stronger cycle can have an impact on that, and we could find ourselves with one or more periods of negative phase of NAO, which would present a blocking pattern and potentially increase the chance for colder weather and winter storms. Again though, no guarantee that this happens at any particular time. I can look ahead and say that I can see the potential for at least a brief episode of something like this after the first week of December, but would it result in anything that would make us remember the early part of winter 2020-2021? Only time will tell… As always, other factors that I have not even mentioned will be monitored and I can talk about those in the day-to-day comments if and when needed. So with all of the above in mind, what follows is my best shot at month-to-month characteristics for the winter.

DECEMBER
As goes November, so goes the winter? I said this last year, and based some of my forecast off it. That only worked out briefly, then was a lost cause. So will I abandon that thought this year? Well, not necessarily. Last year, a very cold November was followed by a cold to seasonable early to mid December, early snow, and then winter making an exit just as the solstice announced the actual beginning of winter. That said, I do think the pattern that we have been in from mid October well into November does hold some significant clues as to what December (and even beyond) will be like. Since it took place as we got into La Nina, and that La Nina will be persisting, that alone gives it some credibility, especially since the westerly QBO is also likely to continue, and these are 2 of the larger factors that drive the pattern at this time. So what does that mean for December? Well, Canada has been pretty cold, and we’ve seen this go into the western US several times, and punch its way into our area a few times as well during the course of autumn, and I think this general pattern is still going to be in place as we head through the final weeks of autumn and into the first couple weeks of winter, astronomically, of course adjusting for climatology based on the calendar. The wild card for December is MJO. There are some signs recently that as we get into December by several days that the MJO may strengthen and move into a phase 6/7 cycle. MJO can be a little more favorable for wintry weather in the Northeast when it is in phase 7 early in the season. Add in the possibility of temporary PV disruption as we continue with good snowcover in Canada and low sea ice in the Arctic region, and our pattern could find itself favorable for some early ice/snow opportunities here as we get toward the middle of the month. Odds would favor the stronger long term pattern of milder with brief cold shots taking back over before the end of the month, as the larger drivers would be superior and eventually win out. But will that episode of wintry opportunity be enough to produce some significant snowfall? I say yes it will, and while this is a risky call that can make my winter forecast look bad early, I’m going to lean that way. Temperature: Near normal, mildest relative to normal late in the month. Precipitation: Near to above normal, most active in the middle 20 days. Snowfall: Above normal, but not by that much.

JANUARY
The first month of 2021 should display the general characteristics of the pattern leading up to winter, as the large scale drivers that are strongest become most dominant (La Nina, QBO, AO). This pattern would be mild overall, but with short-lived and sometimes sharp cold shots. Several times during the month we would be the pathway for disturbances along the boundary between a fairly cold Canada and an persistently mild to warm Southeast as the La Nina driven ridge dominates that part of the US. The polar jet would be spending more time north of the border with occasional inroads into the northern tier of the Lower 48, including New England, but more often west of here. A weakened version of a Pacific jet stream would drive the primary storm track from the West Coast east northeastward across the country, sometimes north of, sometimes over, and sometimes south of New England. And while I don’t think it will be a gangbusters storm pattern, we will see our share of “events”, many of which would be wet versus white, but a couple or a few that could be on the messier side. Nevertheless, the first 2 months of winter should help us take steps to getting out of drought, but falling short of getting us completely out of it as it will take time to overcome the long term precipitation deficit. Temperature: Slightly above normal.
Precipitation: Slightly above normal.
Snow: Below normal.

FEBRUARY
La Nina peaks, westerly QBO dominates, PV is strong and tight to the Arctic, NAO is positive, MJO probably continues its overall trend of being not a big factor, and this should allow the Southeast ridge to be dominant, keeping that battle zone we had been in for much of the winter so far further north, and fooling everybody into thinking winter was ending early……… Temperature: Above normal.
Precipitation: Below normal.
Snow: Much below normal.

MARCH
What happens when you wind something up really tight? Eventually something has to give. All you need is a weak point or some kind of trigger. Canada will have spent a good amount of autumn and winter building a solid snow pack and holding a fair amount of cold air, that at times finds its way here but for long stretches is locked up there or in the western US thanks in part to a ridge of high pressure in the Southeast. Most of the indicators are also that the cold in Canada will extend through Alaska, and often when Alaska has a cold anomaly, the eastern US trends warmer. What may happen in March would possibly be triggered by a weakening and shifting of the warm pool of water in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, basically a PDO readjustment, along with the normal shifting of the behavior of upper air patterns as spring approaches, leading to a better chance of high latitude blocking which can help trigger a disruption of the PV. We’d likely see a period of ridging across Alaska, warming that area up, and flushing cold air southeastward through Canada and into the north central and northeastern US, and a southward shift of the Pacific jet as the Southeast ridge gives ground as the La Nina shows its first signs of weakening. This would shift our pattern to a colder and more active one, opening the door for a late burst of wintry weather that had been missing during the heart of winter. I realize this is a gamble, but given the inherent uncertainty in forecasting that far in advance, an educated guess leads me to this conclusion. If we get late snow, at least the sun angle will be higher and the days will already be noticeably longer, easing the impact of late-season cold and snow. Temperature: Below normal.
Precipitation: Above normal.
Snow: Much above normal.

WINTER SEASON OVERALL
Temperature: Slightly above normal.
Precipitation: Slightly Above normal.
Snow: Near to slightly above normal.
-Boston 45-50 inches
-Worcester 60-65 inches
-Providence 40-45 inches
-Hartford 45-50 inches

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Discussion…

High pressure centered north of New England will slide off to the east and south as so many have done since the summer. But only now since it’s November, instead of a pleasant ocean breeze taking the edge off summer heat, we’ll have a cool and increasingly raw east wind today with a lot of low level clouds coming from the ocean and spreading inland, while above that high and mid level clouds advance ahead of an approaching warm front. While the relatively mild air of the previous two days will be gone, we will still stay dry through the daylight hours today, but the aforementioned warm front will be the trigger for some rainfall tonight. This front, as previously discussed, may never completely make it all the way through the region before a cold front from the west comes across the area around the middle of the day Monday as low pressure tracks eastward to our north. This set-up is one for a wide spread in temperature across the region as the wettest weather is taking place during Monday morning, after which a stronger westerly wind will arrive and we’ll dry out from west to east, and all areas will start a quick drop in temperature as a cold air mass arrives from Canada Monday night as it clears out, and Tuesday, which will be a windy, dry, bright, but below normal temperature day. But that will also be short-lived as the high pressure that delivers the cold will make a quick trip eastward and we’ll already be on its back side by Wednesday. But instead of a nice milder day, Wednesday will feature a lot of cloudiness as we get an increase in moisture ahead of the next low pressure system, set to bring wet weather to the region by Wednesday night and into Thanksgiving. With Thanksgiving at day 5, there’s still some uncertainty on how quickly that system gets out of here. Some guidance has taken it quickly out of the region early in the day for clearing, while other guidance keeps it around. However, the guidance that had been displaying the faster timing is showing me signs of finding the trough that would at least keep cloudiness in the region for the balance of the day even if we saw the wet weather end, so at this time I am leaning toward just an overcast day with greatest rain chances in the morning.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy eastern areas with partial sun mostly interior MA, RI, eastern CT, and southwestern NH before all areas are cloudy by afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 42-49. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through early afternoon. Areas of fog and drizzle in the morning mainly Merrimack Valley into southern NH. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 48-55, coolest southern NH and northeastern MA. Wind SE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas by late day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then becoming cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving late evening or overnight. Temperatures steady 46-53. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Chance of a few lingering showers or some drizzle in the afternoon. Temperatures steady 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Currently expecting mostly dry and milder weather for November 27 & 28 as high pressure moves in but without tapping cold air from Canada. Next low pressure area may bring wet weather to the area in the November 29-30 time frame but the exact timing of this is highly uncertain. Drier/colder weather is possible as December arrives to end this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Highly uncertain outlook with many questions to be answered about the pattern’s evolution, but the scenario I feel is most likely looking at it this far in advance is for dry but seasonably chilly weather early in the period, briefly milder and still dry mid period, and a possible flip to colder with a storm threat at the end of the period, although we may be very near a boundary of warmth to the south with much colder air to the north, so that would set-up a vast range of how the weather could turn out here.

C-19 Chat Post – November 22 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Discussion…

A cold front will pass by the region today, although the day itself will be pleasant by November standards, just some clouds for a while before sun returns and most areas achieve a high temperature of over 50. As the center of high pressure in southeastern Canada moves eastward it will turn the wind, which is northwest as the front passes, around to the east by Sunday, bringing a maritime air mass into the region with cooler/raw feel being the result. Expect some low clouds to arrive from the ocean as high and mid level clouds stream in from an approaching warm front. For now, I’m expecting the daylight hours of Sunday to remain dry. Things change Sunday night when that warm front gets closer, bringing a threat of rain at the same time areas of drizzle result from the onshore air flow. As previously mentioned, the warm front may have trouble getting northward through the entire area Monday before a cold / occluded front arrives from the west to bring drying but colder air into the region during Monday night. Before that, we’ll have a wet day on Monday with widespread rain showers. Tuesday will be a dry but breezy and colder day with high pressure approaching via the Great Lakes, delivering Canadian cold to our region. While the center of high pressure moves just to our north Tuesday night, a nose of it will extend across the region, so a clear/cold night will result. Wednesday, the high moves quickly off to the east and a southeast to south wind develops here. Expect it to moderate somewhat, temperature-wise, but we’ll also see an increasing cloudiness ahead of the next disturbance. Guidance continues to be very divergent on how quickly this system arrives here, but my best guess for now is that our next rain threat holds off until after the daylight hours of Wednesday.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 42-49. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through early afternoon. Areas of fog and drizzle in the morning. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 48-55, coolest southern NH and northeastern MA. Wind SE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas by late day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible at night. Highs 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

To give an example of the guidance divergence I have been mentioning, the most recent run (as of the writing of this blog) of the US operational model (GFS) has a dry, breezy, cool Thanksgiving Day while the most recent run of the European operational model (ECMWF) has an overcast and rain day here. My adjusted educated guess for now is a wet morning and drier afternoon for November 26, but I have a feeling further tweaking will be needed. The behavior and timing of that system has an impact on the forecast for the last several days of the month as well. Cautiously optimistic that we have fair and mild weather for November 27-28 and somewhat unsettled weather for the last couple days of the month, but this is very low confidence at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

The first several days of December should see a west-to-east large scale flow aloft, with out area still in that middle ground between a warm US Southeast and a cold Canada. At least one episode of unsettled weather and a couple air mass changes are likely.

C-19 Chat Post – November 21 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Discussion…

A warm front has passed by the region and while it introduces a mild air mass today it will also open the door for windy conditions as we have a fairly tight pressure gradient between low pressure passing to the north and an elongated area of high pressure to the south. The low to the north is parenting a cold front which will slip southeastward across the region tonight and early Saturday but fairly innocuously other than some clouds. What it will do is shift the wind from southwest to northwest, but it will diminish somewhat as the pressure gradient loosens up as high pressure approaches New England via the Great Lakes. The center of this new high pressure area will slide eastward, passing to our north, and this will turn the wind easterly by Sunday when we’ll have both increasing low level moisture off the ocean and high level moisture from the frontal boundary starting its return as a warm front. That front may or may not make it all the way through the region Sunday night and Monday, and the position of that boundary makes Monday’s high temperature forecast a challenge, but what will be the case during Sunday night and Monday as we’ll have a greater opportunity for wet weather. Finally, as a cold (or occluded front depending on the location of the warm front) passes through during Monday it will shift the wind back to the west again and drier air will return by the end of the day. Along with this will come another shot of chilly air which we will feel Tuesday as high pressure approaches from the west, pushing that cold air right out of Canada and into New England.

Details…

TODAY: Clouds eventually give way to sun. Highs 53-60. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Drizzle possible eastern coastal areas. Highs 46-53. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 42-49. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through early afternoon. Areas of fog and drizzle in the morning. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 48-55, coolest southern NH and northeastern MA. Wind SE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas by late day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

We continue to see divergent and variable guidance which is of limited help. My feel for the situation at this point says this area sees clouds and milder air return November 25 with wet weather late day or at night, a small bubble of high pressure saving Thanksgiving Day from rainfall, so a drier day but with limited sun. Two more systems both with rain chances in an overall mild pattern around November 27 and 29. Again remember that the uncertainty and low confidence level of forecasts this far out leave the door open for significant adjustments.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

The overall pattern will be fast-flowing, zonal (west-to-east), with our region still sitting in the battle zone between cold north and warm south. While none of the disturbances to come through appear they’d have much time to evolve into major storms, we should deal with a couple of episodes of precipitation and frequent air mass changes, but no very large temperature departures from seasonal averages that last any length of time.

C-19 Chat Post – November 20 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Discussion…

Yesterday’s anomalous cold and last night’s clear sky and lighter wind combined to set up one cold start to this morning, but as high pressure sinks to the south of New England we begin a moderation in short order, but that moderation will be tempered a little today due to a very low launching pad and limited daylight to help warm things up – it’s that time of year! A warm front with some high cloudiness will pass by today as well, and while filtering the sunshine at times today, it will lead to helping accelerate the warm-up on Friday, which will end up much milder. We’ll remain on the mild side of this front into early Saturday, but high pressure in eastern Canada will push the boundary back to the south during Saturday, shifting our wind to north and northeast later Saturday into Sunday, with cooler air (though not as cold as recently) settling in. During Sunday, however, a warm front will approach the region with increasing cloudiness and we may even deal with some wet weather before the day is done. This is more likely to take place Sunday night into Monday as low pressure tracks north of the region, finally pushing its cold front across the region later Monday, at which time any rain threat will end, just in time for the arrival of a new cold air mass from Canada Monday night.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 42-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through early afternoon. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Guidance all over the place, with different runs of the same model somewhat inconsistent and varying solutions between models, so they’re not a lot of help in general, but what appears to be is that we’ll be in a fairly active pattern, as previously hinted at, being near a battle between cold air in Canada and warmer air to our south. Initially, cold high pressure wins the battle with dry weather and below normal temperatures November 24. The November 25-26 period will likely bring a period of unsettled weather as low pressure moves into the Northeast via the Ohio Valley, with rain favored over any other precipitation type as cold air retreats quickly. Other than that, the detail of timing remains uncertain and will be fine-tuned. Briefly drier about November 27 before the next unsettled system moves through at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

The overall pattern will be fast-flowing, zonal (west-to-east), with our region still sitting in the battle zone between cold north and warm south. While none of the disturbances to come through appear they’d have much time to evolve into major storms, we should deal with a couple of episodes of precipitation and frequent air mass changes, but no very large temperature departures from seasonal averages that last any length of time.

C-19 Chat Post – November 19 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Discussion…

A solid shot of cold air today accompanied by wind, while making it feel more like mid winter than later autumn, is not indicative of the longer term mild pattern we are in but is a good illustration of the cold shots we still get during a pattern like that, especially when our area will not be far from the boundary between more persistent warmth to the south and plenty of cold air helped a long by a lot of early snowfall in Canada. So we’re in the cold now, and that will be around into tomorrow, although after a very cold start tomorrow morning, we’ll start to moderate during the day as high pressure shifts off to the south and we get a milder west to southwest air flow, which brings in much milder air for Friday, the boundary having slipped north. But it comes back to the south again somewhat over the weekend and we get onto the cooler side again, although only slightly cooler this time as there is not a mechanism to deliver a good shot of cold from Canada. It will be more typical of a pattern we’ve seen many times since summer where high pressure slides across eastern Canada and we get more of a north to northeast air flow, weaker in comparison to the gusty northwest wind we see today.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

As mentioned previously, trying to time systems beyond a few days is difficult at best. Still looking like an unsettled day on November 23 as high pressure shifts offshore and a disturbance and frontal system moves in with a rain or rain shower threat. The front settles to the south after that and timing the next low pressure area is a challenge, with additional unsettled weather possible anywhere from later November 24 through November 25, but not likely for the entire time. High pressure should move in with drier weather later in the period, including Thanksgiving Day (November 26).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

The last days of November to the start of December should see a continued generally westerly (zonal) flow with our area often in the boundary zone between mild air to the south and colder air to the north. Early period is most likely to see some unsettled weather with a front in the vicinity.

C-19 Chat Post – November 18 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Discussion…

A cold front moves through the region today with some cloudiness and a chance of a passing rain/snow shower, introducing a significant shot of cold air for midweek before high pressure that moves in from the Great Lakes with the cold air slips to the south and we see a warming trend later this week, mildest by Friday, then a slight cool down for Saturday as a weaker cold front slips through the region early in the day.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain and/or snow showers are possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Current timing of systems in a general west to east air flow brings a warm front through on November 22 with cloudiness but not much of a rain threat. Cold front follows with a rain shower threat November 23. This front may sit just to the south with a wave of low pressure bringing some wet weather later November 24, exiting early November 25 with a shot of cooler but dry weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

The last days of November to the start of December should see a continued generally westerly (zonal) flow with our area often in the boundary zone between mild air to the south and colder air to the north. Mid period is most likely to see some unsettled weather with a front in the vicinity.

C-19 Chat Post – November 17 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Discussion…

A west to northwesterly air flow will dominate the first 3 days of the week, with a colder trend. A few rain/snow showers will accompany a cold front and upper level disturbance passing through the region on Tuesday, bringing air feeling more like winter by Wednesday. A moderating trend gets underway later in the week as high pressure, first to our west helping to deliver the colder air, slips off to the south and helps push in milder air.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain and/or snow showers are possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

We’ll be close to a boundary between mild air to our south and Canadian cold, as noted previously. We may find it flip flopping back and forth on us one day to the next which will help determine temperatures. Right now my best guess is we will be on the cooler side of the boundary November 21, 23, and 25, the milder side the other 2 days, and the only chance of significant precipitation (probably rain or rain showers) would come about November 24.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

The final 5 days of the month look like they will be dominated by a general westerly air flow but still with us not too far from the cold / warm air boundary, so at least once in there we should see air mass changes and at least one opportunity for precipitation, probably around mid period.