C-19 Chat Post – November 16 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Discussion…

First I would like to mention the minor coastal flooding threat a couple hours either side of the late morning high tide today as we have one of the astronomically higher tides of the year. High pressure hangs on and gives us a bright start to the day, if you were up early enough. Clouds advance quickly today ahead of a warm front which will pass by later today. While the warm front does not have any precipitation with it, it will open the door for a surge of warm and humid air this evening ahead of a strong cold front which will then cross the region late tonight from west to east, as its parent low tracks north of here. This front will produce a fairly solid area of showers/downpours and possibly some thunder. While the heaviest rain will occur in a fairly narrow, quick-moving band, it can result in street flooding, especially where fallen leaves block storm drains. Wet leaves on roads also can be as slippery as snow/ice, not to mention the reduce visibility, so anyone on the road later tonight will need to exercise caution. The other threat is wind. While it will be breezy leading up to and into the time of the showers, there can be some particularly strong wind gusts aided by heavier showers bringing down much stronger winds from above. Isolated wind damage and power outages are possible. The window of greatest risk will be 10PM to 2AM from west to east across the region. Monday’s weather will feature a chilly wind with sun and clouds as a cold Canadian air mass enters via the Great Lakes. A disturbance will come along in the flow on Tuesday with more cloudiness and a rain/snow shower risk, though no significant precipitation will occur. This disturbance will serve to drag even colder air into the region for the middle of next week.

Details…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers moving in from west to east evening, including a band of heavier showers and possible thunder during the 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. window but lasting only a short time in any one area, then rain showers exiting from west to east overnight. Temperatures steady or rising slightly evening. Overnight lows 40-47. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W. During the passage of the heaviest showers wind gusts in excess of 30 MPH at lower elevations and in excess of 45 MPH at higher elevations may occur.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54 occurring in the morning then falling through the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

We’ll be near the boundary of mild air to the south and Canadian cold air. Currently expecting this region to be on the milder side of the boundary November 20 & 22, the cooler side November 21 & at the end of the period. Despite the boundary nearby, the overall pattern is dry to start with, but the precipitation change may increase toward the end of the period with the possibility of a more significant wave of low pressure entering the region.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Indications are that we will remain in that battle zone area between the mild to the south and the cold to the north, with additional opportunities for unsettled weather, with dry interludes, and variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – November 15 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Discussion…

Today will be a day of cold air advection. What does that mean for today in particular? It means that we’ll be delivered a modified cold air mass from Canada, although with temperatures already having dropped due to an overcast/wet/cool day yesterday and some clearing last night, what will really happen today when you factor the incoming cool air with the diurnal warming of sunlight, the temperature really just won’t go up that much. It will feel even cooler than it is because of a developing gusty breeze, as well as some passing patches of cloudiness, the result of a leftover layer of moisture a few thousand feet off the ground and incoming colder air above that. There may be enough initial instability for a few sprinkles of rain, with this most likely occurring north of I-90. These clouds will dissipate this evening and the wind will drop off as high pressure moves across the region. This is a recipe for radiational cooling, when any warmth of the sunlight radiates quickly out toward space and the temperature drops off. It may drop significantly enough to match the dew point in some interior lower elevations, which would result in patches of fog forming. Sunday, the high pressure area will move offshore and we’ll have a warm front pass by in the morning and midday hours, which will introduce a warmer southerly air flow for the balance of the day, setting the stage for a round of showers (maybe even a rumble of thunder) as a pretty potent cold front approaches from the west by evening, parented by low pressure tracking eastward and passing north of our area Sunday night. Besides the risk for brief heavy rain showers, we’ll have to watch for some strong wind gusts, as the air not that far above us will be blowing strongly, and any heavier showers can drag some of this wind down to the surface in gusts. Thankfully with a lot of the trees now having lost most of their leaves, this should lessen the chance of damage and therefore reduce the power outage chances. However, there still can be some isolated damage & resulting outages as this front and its band of showers crosses from west to east. Monday will be another cold advection day with plenty of wind and a sky of sun and passing clouds. A disturbance will move this way via the Great Lakes on Tuesday and bring plenty of clouds along with a chance of a few rain and/or snow showers as it will be chilly at the surface and cold aloft. This system is gone by Wednesday and high pressure in the Great Lakes will deliver a solid cold air mass from Canada. There may be a few isolated but insignificant snow flurries around on Wednesday.

Details…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Brief very light rain showers possible mostly from Boston north and west during midday. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog low elevations. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, then diminishing to near calm.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with an episode of rain showers, possibly heavy, including a slight chance of thunder, during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, with a few gusts 30-50 MPH possible during the passage of the showers.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54 occurring in the morning then falling through the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

High pressure slips off to the south of New England and milder weather results for the early part of this period, before a frontal boundary slips to the south again with some briefly unsettled weather, followed by seasonably cool and drier weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Thanksgiving Week Outlook: Trend continues to be for our area to be in a battle zone between a warm US Southeast and cold Canada. This creates the opportunity for some unsettled weather and temperature variation. There are some shifts in guidance resulting in model divergence but not going to read into that too much at this time, hence keeping the outlook unchanged.

C-19 Chat Post – November 14 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Discussion…

We’re returned to reality, or more typical November weather. What we really need is rain still. While we dented our drought back in October, we’ve trended drier again recently and that is allowing the drought to hold on. We’ll do a little positive work today with some wet weather, but not enough. We still need a series of good precipitation events to really take bites out of it. We won’t really see that happen during the next 5 days, although we will get some unsettled weather, including today as a wave of low pressure combines with a northeast wind to produce drizzle and eventually some periodic rain. But this will be rather short-lived as a push of dry air from Canada arrives tonight. High pressure approaches via the Great Lakes Saturday with a gusty breeze and sun with passing clouds. The high moves offshore quickly by Sunday when low pressure approaches from the west, destined to track north of the region, sending its warm front then cold front through here in fairly rapid succession during Sunday and Sunday night. Only the cold front looks like it will have enough moisture to produce any wet weather, and that should also be rather short-lived. Monday, a delivery of cool air arrives on a gusty westerly wind but it will be a dry day. Tuesday, we’ll be in a chilly air mass as another disturbance comes along, and this one will produce showers of rain and/or snow (leaning toward rain showers for Metro Boston at this point). This will be a minor and fast-moving system regardless of precipitation type.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of drizzle and light rain. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57 in the morning then falling to the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

A nice shot of cold air for November 18 with sun/clouds and a few snow showers possible as high pressure approaches from the west. The high slips to the south with fair weather and milder air November 19-20 but a disturbance may bring some unsettled weather November 20 before fair and cooler weather follows that. A little uncertain on that middle-of-period disturbance possibility.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Thanksgiving Week Outlook: Trend continues to be for our area to be in a battle zone between a warm US Southeast and cold Canada. This creates the opportunity for some unsettled weather and temperature variation, which is still about as far as I can go with this as it’s still far too soon for detail.

C-19 Chat Post – November 13 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Discussion…

The long stretch of November warmth comes to an end today. If you look outside from a window this morning under a cloudy November sky, it may conjure up the feeling of late autumn chill when combined with the trees that are now nearly bare, save for the dark golds & browns of oaks and other rustics that are reluctant to let go of their foliage as if begging for summer to come back and make them green again. Alas, when you step outside through your door, you’ll feel 60+ degree warmth, and even air that feels somewhat humid. A few raindrops may be falling where you are, but this is part of a signal that things are about to change. Wait until this afternoon to step outside, and you will have lost your opportunity to feel the 60s, as it will already have fallen into the 50s in most areas and be on its way down from there, into the 40s tonight, maybe even a few upper 30s in outlying colder locations, as Canadian air seeps into the region. Friday, reality sets in fully as the temperature recovery only feebly attempts 50, and falls shy in many areas. The clouds will continue to be dominant, and a wave of low pressure will produce a few periods of rain during the day. Friday night, dry but even cooler air moves in, and we see the sky clear out. This sets up a weekend that will showcase 2 different weather moods, from the cool gusty breezy and bright sun of Saturday ahead of high pressure, to a more tranquil, slightly milder, but less sunny Sunday as high pressure slips offshore, low pressure heads through the Great Lakes. At this time, it looks like the warm front from this system will pass by during the day Sunday, but with limited moisture to work with, so rain chances are minimal. Sunday night and very early Monday, its cold front will traverse the region from west to east, bringing a band of rain showers, but I have my doubts just how substantial these showers will be. Any brief warm-up we get on Sunday will be replaced by a new incoming cool air mass Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly this morning and favoring areas south of I-90, especially the South Coast. Temperatures 60-67 through mid morning, falling into the 50s midday and afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH through mid morning, becoming NW 5-15 MPH during the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mainly late morning on. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59, probably occurring morning-midday, before falling. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Upper level low pressure moves through the region November 17 and 18 with lots of clouds and a risk of rain showers November 17 then more of a sun/cloud mix with a few rain and/or snow showers November 18 as temperatures fall to slightly below normal. High pressure moves south of the region with fair weather and milder air November 19-20, but a cold front around the end of the period brings a few rain showers and a transition back to cooler again.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Heading toward Thanksgiving (November 26) the trend is to see the region in a battle zone between a warm US Southeast and cold Canada. This creates the opportunity for some unsettled weather and temperature variation, neither of which can be pinpointed in any detail this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – November 12 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Discussion…

Taking a moment to recognize and thank all Veterans for their dedication, service, and bravery. Understanding that most cities and towns continue with restrictions for activities, but if there are any small Veterans Day ceremonies outside this morning and midday there will not be any weather issues as we continue the summerlike pattern we’ve been in for several days. Today is Boston’s day to break a record high temperature as the morning sunshine and southerly wind should help temperatures take off quickly and make it to 70, besting the record of 69. This has been my expectation for several days for Boston in this stretch, and now it’s time to see if it plays out. Other locations have set some record highs in the days before this. What has been far more impressive than the magnitude of the warm spell, which hasn’t been exceedingly warm since we were not shattering records everywhere every day, was the longevity, being one of the longer stretches, and in some locations the longest, we have seen. Regardless, it’s about to end, and will do so as a cold front ambles its way eastward into and across the region tonight and early Thursday. However, it appears that the rain shower activity with this front will be somewhat limited, with the only shot of “beneficial” rainfall across the South Coast, while other areas get less significant activity. An initial moisture feed from Tropical Storm Eta heads south of the region. As the cold front settles just to the south of the region, one wave of low pressure will keep cloudiness in the region for a good portion of Thursday. A little influx of drier air will try to clear the region out at night but another disturbance coming along on Friday will thicken the clouds up again and deliver a shot of some rainfall. This will be a fairly-quick moving system and be on its way out quickly, opening the door for a chilly high pressure system to move in via the Great Lakes Saturday, a day that will be breezy and seasonably cool for us here. This high quickly moves offshore by Sunday and a warm front approaching will bring an increase in cloudiness, but right now it does not look as wet as it did previously – in fact, we may escape the entire day without any rain. This will be something to watch as we get closer to the weekend.

Details…

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. More humid. Highs 66-73. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers arriving, most numerous South Coast. Humid. Lows 53-60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers around, mainly morning. Highs 60-67 morning, falling to the 50s afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Becoming cloudy. Periods of rain especially from late morning on. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing with areas of ground fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Cold front moves through early November 16 with a rain shower risk followed by breezy and cool but dry weather. Disturbance may bring additional cloudiness and a rain shower risk November 17 before high pressure builds in and then south of the region with fair weather the middle of next week. Next disturbance may bring clouds and a risk of light rainfall by the end of the period but this is very low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Still very low confidence out this far. May see another surge of mild weather, not as significant as the one we just had, with mainly dry weather. Alot of re-evaluation is needed to fine-tune the weather forecast for later this month.

C-19 Chat Post – November 11 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Discussion…

Our charmed weather life has but hours left before a shift toward reality. But even when that happens were going to reap some benefit from a couple rain chances to further chip away at the drought. Apologies for the late update, but now that things are up and running, just a quick summary, or reiteration, of the weather players the next 5 days… Today it’s high pressure surface and aloft, helping you recall the summer days of weeks ago, with the exception of the 4:30 p.m. sunset (heehee). Wednesday we get an approaching cold front, ahead of which we’ll see an increase in clouds, humidity, and eventually rain chances. This is also the day I think Boston breaks its record high temperature which stands at 69. Today’s 78 is out of reach. Once the front gets right into the area and slowly passes through, a wave of low pressure will pass by on it and bring most of its rainfall to the area Wednesday night and early Thursday. After that, high pressure from Canada pushes in Friday and Saturday with dry and more seasonably cool air, though watch for one final wave of low pressure that may bring some rain toward the South Coast on Friday.

Details…

TODAY: Early patchy fog & low clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 70-77 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of fog & low clouds forming. Lows 50-57. Wind SW under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a chance of rain South Coast. Breaking clouds & increasing sun afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

A wave of low pressure will bring cloudiness and wet weather November 15. Upper level low pressure may keep it on the unsettled side at times early next week with a few rain showers at times before a turn to dry and seasonable weather

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

The large scale pattern trend is for zonal (west to east) flow, ridge southeastern US but occasional troughs trying to push in from Canada. General pattern here is on the dry side with variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – November 10 2020

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

Discussion…

High pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue to provide us with fair and warm November weather for a couple more days. With longer night time hours now, there is a lengthy period of radiational cooling allowing for larger temperature diurnals (difference between high temps and low temps at one location) and in areas where the temperature meets the dew point, we’ve seen some fog and low clouds form as well. That will be the case again tonight and probably Tuesday night as well before more substantial cloudiness moves in and more wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will bring a change in our weather, first int he form of a band of rain showers later Wednesday into Thursday, and a shift to cooler air later this week. Once again a look at Boston’s record high temps show that today’s (74) has a slight chance of being equalled but I don’t think surpassed, Tuesday’s (78) is out of reach, and Wednesday’s (69) has a shot at being broken. Some of the moisture associated with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico may be involved with the cold front as it comes by late Wednesday into Thursday, but the bulk of that moisture will pass south of the region. One additional wave of low pressure on the front to the south of the region may hold cloudiness and possibly some South Coast wet weather in for a portion of Friday, but when we get to the end of the week, a push of high pressure from eastern Canada and the Great Lakes will bring drier weather back in.

Details…

TODAY: Patchy fog & low clouds early, then sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except patchy low clouds & for forming overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early patchy fog & low clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Areas of fog & low clouds forming. Lows 50-57. Wind SW under 10 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a chance of rain South Coast. Breaking clouds & increasing sun afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

High pressure centered northwest of the region will bring dry and seasonably cool weather for November 14 before moving off to the east quickly and allowing a wave of low pressure to bring cloudiness and wet weather November 15. Upper level low pressure may keep it on the unsettled side at times early next week with a few rain showers at times.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

The large scale pattern trend is for zonal (west to east) flow, ridge southeastern US but occasional troughs trying to push in from Canada. General pattern here is on the dry side with variable temperatures, but timing of shots of cool air and mildest days is not really possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – November 9 2020