C-19 Chat Post – January 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

Strong blocking continues, keeping it dry here while the storm track is forced to the south through at least the weekend. The next system may get closer by Tuesday but the evolution and track remain in question.

TODAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 34-41. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

We will continue in a blocking pattern with active and changeable weather. We’re vulnerable to unsettled weather through January 15 followed by a shot of Arctic air to end the period. as a result of it, starting with a storm threat int he January 12-13 period, depending on how close low pressure from the southwest gets to our area, followed by what looks like a weaker system passing by around January 15 and a shot of arctic air potentially arriving at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)

Blocking should continue but may weaken. I continue moderately confident of a colder than normal period here but less confident about any storm threats.

C-19 Chat Post – January 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)

I’m not going to spend time over-analyzing our blocking pattern or trashing the over-hyped headlines flying around the net. Waste of time, actually. Today, I’ll do what I feel I do best, and that is focus on the weather pattern and its expected impact on the WHW forecast area. So let’s do that. 🙂 Blocking continues and will be on the strong side, forcing a storm to pass south of our area Friday night & Saturday, with us seeing no more than some high clouds from the northern side of its cloud canopy. This leaves us dry and seasonably chilly for the next 5 days with today probably the “mildest” and either Saturday or Sunday the “coldest”. See? That was easy…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High overcast. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 34-41. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

This 5-day period is where we will continue in a blocking pattern but likely see more active and changeable weather as a result of it, starting with a storm threat int he January 12-13 period, depending on how close low pressure from the southwest gets to our area, followed by what looks like a weaker system passing by around January 15 and a shot of arctic air potentially arriving at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Blocking should continue. I’m moderately confident of a colder than normal 5-day period here but less confident about any storm threats, leaning drier initially.

C-19 Chat Post – January 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)

We now are in a blocking pattern and have seen a stratospheric warming event disrupt the polar vortex which means a more volatile pattern for the Northern Hemisphere. What does that mean for us here in the northeastern US? Well, in the very short term, it doesn’t mean all that much different from what I’d been discussing, regarding getting rid of our offshore storm today, slowly, and seeing the next storm system miss to the south early in the weekend, leaving us with seasonably chilly and generally dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Possible passing snow showers except snow or rain showers Cape Cod. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High overcast. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 37-44. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

The blocking pattern will remain in place. Various guidance remains in disagreement about how the next storm threat(s) will play out but we need to keep an eye on one or potentially 2 systems (January 12-13 & 14-15). The disruption of the polar jet stream will make it difficult to gauge the evolution and timing of disturbances that have the potential to impact our region. Temperatures overall will not be that far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Still lower confidence due to the upcoming instability of the large scale pattern. For now holding onto a continuation of and possible start of the breakdown of the blocking set-up but still a volatile pattern with the impacts from an unstable polar vortex. This probably leads to at least one storm threat and with colder air potentially more available, the winter storm threat would be there. Lots to monitor in the days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – January 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

We continue to watch a blocking pattern establish itself with visible evidence in low pressure temporarily stuck off our eastern coastline, which will continue to through cloudiness and occasional rain & snow showers back into the region, especially eastern areas, through early Wednesday, before it heads out and high pressure takes its place later in the week with seasonably chilly, dry weather. The next storm system will very likely head out to sea south of New England, with our area only seeing some high cloudiness from it later Friday into Saturday. This is due to the block’s positioning and strength and the resulting storm track being forced well to the south. This particular block is also keeping the cold air on the “other side” of the pole, with parts of Asia & Europe much colder while North America is not so cold.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/snow showers favoring NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and possibly RI. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH interior except 15-25 MPH eastern coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers lingering in eastern areas. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with a lingering snow shower possible in eastern areas, then partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High overcast. Lows 20-27. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun with high clouds to start, then brighter sunshine. Highs 37-44. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

The blocking pattern will remain in place. The next storm threat is in the January 12-13 window and this one may get a little closer to the region than the one before it, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on it. Temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

With low to moderate confidence I look for a weak system to pass through with minor precipitation about January 15 and a break-down of the large scale blocking pattern, which for our area probably means dry, colder weather overall. Have to watch for any disturbances from the west that medium range guidance is not picking up on solidly this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – January 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

Low pressure southeast of New England will remain just far enough offshore to keep its main precipitation shield, which is over Cape Cod and parts of the South Shore of MA as mainly rain right now, out over the water, but will do a small cyclonic loop east of our region through early Wednesday, keeping lots of cloudiness and a few episodes of rain and snow showers going, mainly for the NH Seacoast region through eastern MA and possibly RI, while areas to the west see cloudiness but probably no precipitation other than a brief snow shower on Tuesday when the low is at its furthest west. The system finally pulls away during Wednesday allowing dry air to move in, which will then dominate through Friday as high pressure moves in and dominates. We will start to see some high cloudiness in the sky on Friday in advance of the next low pressure area we have to watch.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain Cape Cod and southern South Shore of MA this morning. Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers elsewhere until midday. Highs 34-41. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible, favoring the capes of MA. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/snow showers favoring NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and possibly RI. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH interior except 15-25 MPH eastern coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers lingering in eastern areas. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with a lingering snow shower possible in eastern areas, then partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but some increasing high clouds later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

Blocking pattern in place, may be strong enough to force the next storm system south of the region on January 9 but we’ll have to continue to keep an eye on it. High pressure builds in with fair and seasonably chilly weather January 10-11, then watching the next unsettled weather threat from low pressure heading this way from the southwest January 12-13.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Unsettled weather threat briefly between late January 14 into January 15, but otherwise mainly dry and trending a little colder mid to late period. Large scale blocking pattern may begin to break down during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – January 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

Clouds will be dominant today from a combination of onshore air flow pushing lower level clouds in from the Atlantic, and clouds coming in above that ahead of our next storm system, the center of which will pass just southeast of New England Monday, then do a bit of a loop east of New England for a couple days after that keeping is on the unsettled side here, before high pressure moves in with fair weather for Thursday.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Snow/mix interior, mix/rain coast, arriving late-day. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except mix/rain in coastal areas. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain (mostly coast) & snow (mostly interior) tapering off later in the day. Snow accumulation from up to a slushy coating coastal areas, coating to 2 inches I-95 belt and lower I-495 belt, 2-4 inches upper I-495 belt northwestward. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow and/or rain showers possible. Temperatures generally 32-39. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

A stronger blocking pattern is expected to force the next low pressure area in the pipeline south of New England between late January 8 and early January 10 but we’ll have to keep an eye on it anyway, just in case it ends up further north than expected. The next system may approach by the very end of the period and have a better chance at reaching this area.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Expecting an unsettled start to this period, details dependent on the track of low pressure, and then a shift to seasonably cold and dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)

You’ve made it to the second day of 2021! And the weather today is just as expected. Last night, precipitation arrived as snow in all areas west and north of Boston, a few flakes in the city, and generally rain to the southeast. The initial burst of snow was enough accumulate a coating to 2 inches, as expected. Here at the WHW location in Woburn Massachusetts I measured 7/10 of an inch (0.7) of snowfall before the band moved away and it ended. When precipitation returned, it was in the form of sleet then went to rain. During the overnight hours it became rain in all areas, but some of that rain was freezing on untreated surfaces north and west of Boston, especially in Worcester County where temperatures held close to or just below freezing longest while other areas warmed to the upper 30s and lower 40s pre-dawn. The hold-out areas will warm toward 40 today and any icing should melt away. The entire region is starting overcast with areas of rain and some fog today as low pressure tracks across southeastern New England, and as that low makes its way east and northeast of the region this afternoon and evening we’ll see the return of dry air and some clearing. As the temperature drops tonight, watch for the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces, into Sunday morning as well. Most of this will vanish due to dry air by later Sunday morning. Sunday will be a nice winter day, but don’t expect total sunshine as clouds will be rapidly moving back into the region in advance of the next low pressure system, which will bring its shield of precipitation into the region late Sunday and into Monday. The question with this system is its organization and battle against some dry air. It will have colder air to work with, so the snow potential extends a little further south and east than the system just before it, but at the same time it will be fighting dry air that may try to eat away at the precipitation. Some of the shorter range guidance has been insisting on an offshore intensification of this system, dragging cold air eastward and creating a snow situation with a bit more potential to it, while other guidance has had this occurring a little too far offshore to have much of an impact. No surprise that the guidance continues to struggle with these details but they should iron things out over the next few runs. In the mean time, I’ll just continue the idea from yesterday, and based on this, this is my early call on snowfall accumulation through Monday evening… No accumulation for outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, a slushy coating for Cape Ann MA, lower Cape Cod, and Martha’s Vineyard, northwestward to about Plymouth and westward along the South Coast, a coating to 1 inch from the South Shore north of Plymouth to southern RI away from the coast as well as northward to the immediate North Shore of the Boston area, 1-3 inches for the I-95 belt and the lower part of the I-495 belt south of I-90, and 3-5 inches for the I-495 belt from I-90 northward. This system will be hanging around underneath upper level low pressure offshore Tuesday and perhaps even into Wednesday (a little longer than previously expected) keeping it on the unsettled side here with the potential for rain and snow showers.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog & drizzle along with periods of rain this morning. Breaking clouds from west to east this afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH backing to N then W with higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Watch for black ice formation. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except mix/rain South Coast, arriving by the end of the day. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except mix/rain in coastal areas. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain (mostly coast) & snow (mostly interior) may get heavier and rain may change to snow in all areas by later in the day. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain tapering off to spotty and lighter. Lows 23-30. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow and/or rain showers possible. Temperatures generally 32-39. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)

The delay in departure of the low pressure area into midweek likely delays the arrival of the next system or changes its track somewhat. Need to watch later January 8 through January 10, but this system could easily end up passing south of there region. Will keep a close eye on its evolution.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)

Blocking pattern expected. Next storm threat window later January 12 through January 14.

C-19 Chat Post – January 2 2021