DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

We’ll continue to be in the battle zone between entrenched arctic air over a good portion of the country and a warmer southeastern US due to the appearance of a high pressure ridge, finally, long after it was initially expected. While none of the low pressure areas moving along this boundary will be particularly strong, we do have 3 to contend with during this 5-day period, the first of which comes by tonight and early Sunday with light precipitation, the second during Monday again with fairly light precipitation, and the third and most moisture-laden system to follow later Monday night through Tuesday. The biggest question to answer with these is how much warm air will come in aloft to result in a variety of precipitation rather than mostly snow. At the surface, we will be on the cold side of the boundary for the duration, but that means that if we warm up aloft we’ll deal with at least sleet becoming part of the deal, and if we warm up enough we’ll end up with a freezing rain issue where surface temperatures remain below freezing. So this will be the puzzle to solve… Meanwhile, this unsettled stretch will be book-ended by dry weather during the day today and Wednesday, following the departure of the third system.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow arriving overnight from west to east. Lows 17-24. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty snow & possible freezing drizzle into midday. Any snow accumulation mostly coatings. Chance of minor icing. Highs 25-32. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow and sleet possible. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Cloudy. Occasional light snow/sleet likely, with freezing rain/drizzle possible. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light snow or snow/sleet mix evening. Steady snow arriving overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain likely, trending toward mostly snow. Highs 26-33. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Another low pressure area likely brings unsettled weather with a variety of precipitation possible in the February 18-19 window, favoring cold solution. Fair, cold weather to follow for the February 20-21 weekend before next system has to be watched for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

One or two more possible precipitation threats during this period. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – February 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

The pattern is locked in. Very cold air centered on the west central and central US while we are cold here, but more as the air “leaks” into our area. This is how this was expected to evolve, and it has. Also, in this pattern, while you can get significant storm systems that dump a decent amount of precipitation, you don’t tend to get anything resembling “blockbusters”. This will continue to to be the case, with a series of disturbances along the boundary of cold and warmer air associated with the late-arriving and less expansive Southeast ridge will being the watchers for our “weather events”. Recent events have ended up less than their potential (the Tuesday event which produced less than expected, the Thursday event which grazed the South Coast, and today’s non-event, a.k.a. miss to the south. The upcoming system for early Sunday also looks anemic, a minor snow producer at best. But a little shift for today’s update, and something I must note (for model watchers) was picked up first by the Canadian guidance) is that there will be a string-out of energy enough that we’ll probably stay in a fair amount of cloudiness and even have a bit of a precipitation (snow/mix) threat Monday in between the Sunday system and the one with the greatest potential, slated for Tuesday. That final one, keeping in mind it’s forecast day 5, holds the best potential to produce a more significant amount of precipitation. I’ll keep it vague at day 5, as trying to detail anything beyond day 3 is a waste of time.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow arriving overnight from west to east. Lows 17-24. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with occasional snow, except possible mix South Coast. Snow accumulation spotty and under 2 inches. Breaking clouds later. Highs 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow or snow/sleet mix possible. Highs 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light snow or snow/sleet mix evening. Steady snow arriving overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain likely (early idea favors frozen most of region, greatest rain risk South Coast). Highs 26-33. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Dry interlude February 17. Next window of opportunity for unsettled weather later February 18 into February 19, followed by fair weather later in the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

One or two more possible precipitation threats during this period. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – February 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

This 5-day segment takes us through the Presidents Day Weekend, and during this period we will have 3 low pressure systems pass our longitude in the continued cold and active weather pattern. No, this is no 2015, when we were in a much higher amplitude pattern with cold so locked in that our storms were all big powder fluff snowstorms – this one has a different set-up. It’s cold, yes, but we set at the eastern edge of a large cold air mass which dominates a good portion of the US, while far southeastern portions of the US, especially Florida, has been sitting in very warm air. The boundary zone between that cold & warm is always the most vulnerable area for storms to be, and a quick jet stream moves a steady series of them along the boundary. The first of the three aforementioned low pressure areas passes to the south of New England today, close enough only to bring brief snow around the South Coast for a brief time, while the remainder of the area just starts to the day under a canopy of clouds, which will then clear out. The second low pressure area passes even further south of the region on Friday, leaving us with a partly sunny and dry day. The next low makes a run at the region on Sunday, Valentine’s Day, but will be losing punch as it does so. At this point, my expectation from this one is that we can squeeze out a generally light snowfall from late Saturday night as moisture streams in ahead of the system, through Sunday midday before drier air has sufficiently eaten away at the system that we probably end the day with at least some sun. Presidents Day Monday is expected to be dry but breezy and cold between that departing low to the east and approaching high pressure from the west.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with brief light snow South Coast. Increasing sun thereafter. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Parttly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow arriving overnight from west to east. Lows 17-24. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with probable snow, except possible mix South /Coast. Breaking clouds later. Highs 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny,. Highs 22-29. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Current timing brings our next storm threat in for February 16, likely a more significant snow to mix event, details to be determined. Dry weather follows for February 17. Quick-moving systems in the jet stream mean that the next threat will be sooner, sometime in the February 18-19 time window with dry weather returning to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

One or two more possible precipitation threats during this period. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – February 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

High pressure brings fair and cold winter weather today. One low pressure area will pass south of the region Thursday, but may be close enough to bring a touch of light snow into the South Coast region before moving on. A follow-up low will pass even further south of the area on Friday with no snow threat. High pressure slides back in for fair but cold weather Saturday. Sunday, we’ll have to watch for a storm system coming at us from the southwest, but it’s uncertain at this point how significant this one will be for us. It does have some potential as it should have more connection with southern moisture – something to watch and fine-tune the next few days.

TODAY: Early clouds eastern areas, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 12-19. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A bit of very light snow possible South Coast. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 17-24. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain possible. Highs 25-30 north, 30-35 south. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Windy/cold/dry February 15 behind the late weekend storm threat. February 16-17 is the next storm threat – more detail to come in days ahead. Dry/cold February 18-19.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

One or two more possible precipitation threats during this period. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – February 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

After a couple storms that were filled with complexities, today we get a “simple” winter storm, not a big one, but a light to moderate snowfall, some typical mix/rain near the South Coast, and a pretty straightforward later morning start time to early evening end time, as low pressure passes just south of the New England South Coast, with cold air in place. For commuters, we sneak through the morning without an issue, but the afternoon/evening drive will be more impacted by this event. High pressure moves in to bring us a chilly but brighter winter day Wednesday. I continue to eye a pair of low pressure areas for potential impact later in the week. The expectation was that the storm track would be pushed a bit further south during this week, and that is likely to be the case, with those passing mainly south of the region between Thursday and Friday, although we’ll probably deal with quite a bit of cloudiness as they pass us by – and as always a wary eye will be kept on them, just in case. Expect a dry but cold Saturday as high pressure makes a brief visit.

TODAY: Cloudy. Snow arrives west to east mid through late morning, steadiest and moderate to heavy at times this afternoon, mixing with or changing to rain Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and possibly the immediate MA & RI South Coast, before tapering off from west to east early evening. Snowfall accumulation coating to 2 inches in far southern areas that mix or change to rain, 2 to 4 inches MA South Shore (Plymouth area) to interior far southern New England (Providence RI area), and 4 to 7 inches elsewhere. Highs 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing west to east. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 24-31. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Active pattern. Colder than normal temperatures overall. Storm threats focused on February 14 & 17. Favoring snow over any mix/rain for the first system, but cannot discount the possibility of a variety of precipitation depending on storm track.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Two more opportunities for low pressure impacts focused around February 20 & 22 but either or both of these can be pushed to the south of the region. Far to soon for any confidence on these future potentials.

C-19 Chat Post – February 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

High pressure approaches today behind our departed winter storm. The air flow between the two will result in a cold day with a gusty breeze but with plenty of sun. The active pattern we are in sends the next low pressure system our way for Tuesday, and this system, while not very strong, will send its center passing just south of the region and a shield of snow moving across our area, with minor to borderline moderate snowfall accumulation during the day and early evening, though air just mild enough may allow rain to be involved near the South Coast. High pressure builds back in behind this for Wednesday, which will be chilly and dry. The next low pressure area makes a run at the region later in the week. Early indications are that this system may be a little further south to have a direct or complete impact, but we’ll have to watch for the next chance of snow/mix to occur Thursday & Friday with this system.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow except snow may change to rain South Coast, accumulation of snow 2-4 inches except 1-2 inches South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with lingering snow or flurries possible evening. Clearing overnight. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow. Highs 24-41. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Possible snow. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Next storm brings a threat of snow/mix/rain to the region by February 14, and another system may threaten by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather events but much of the time should be on the dry and cold side.

C-19 Chat Post – February 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Two jet streams throw energy at us today. The first will be a southern stream low pressure area that will race northeastward, passing southeast of New England, throwing a shield of precipitation across the region from later this morning to early this evening, arriving from southwest to northeast as snow for most areas but mix or rain in the coastal plain due to marginal temperatures, then end up as mainly snow for all, with a light to moderate accumulation, and a pocket of heavier accumulation over interior southeastern MA, before exiting from west to east between 6 and 8 p.m. (may linger a bit longer in far eastern areas). As this feature exits, a cold front associated with energy in the northern jet stream may help create a brief snow shower or even a snow squall, especially west and north of Boston, as it moves through the region later in the evening. After this, a shot of windy, colder weather will follow for Monday, but as high pressure moves toward the region, the wind will start to relax by later Monday, and high clouds will already be streaming in ahead of the next system coming along in the jet stream which will bring a minor snow/mix/rain event to the region on Tuesday. After this, fair weather returns for midweek. Some of the guidance has another system moving in quickly, about next Thursday, but at the moment I believe that may be too quick on the guidance and will go with a slower timing, holding that system off through the middle of the week.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast late morning-midday, starting as rain in the coastal plain of MA especially Cape Cod before changing to snow there, steadiest through the afternoon, heaviest over eastern CT, RI & southeastern MA. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH morning, NE 10-20 MPH afternoon except 15-25 MPH with a few higher gusts over southeastern MA.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early evening with snow ending west to east by 8 or 9 p.m. after accumulating 1-3 inches across central and northeastern MA and southern NH, 3-5 inches in the Boston-Providence region southeastward, except pockets of 5-8 inches mainly interior southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Variably cloudy late evening with a passing snow shower or snow squall possible mainly in areas north and west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow except snow may change to rain South Coast. Highs 30-35 southern NH and northern MA, 35-40 southern MA & RI. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Active pattern with one or two low pressure systems impacting the region during this period with snow/mix/rain, favoring February 12 & 15, but low confidence on the timing of the second threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather events near the border of very cold air north and milder air to the south, and in the general storm track path. Don’t misread this as a forecast of snowstorm after snowstorm. There is far too much uncertainty out this far to make a confident call.

C-19 Chat Post – February 7 2021

COMMENTARY

Ever open your tool box and grab the wrench you are sure fits, then it just kind of fits but mostly doesn’t fit and you try to angle it so it will do the job anyway, but then…it doesn’t? And so you get another one, and it looks perfect, but it’s too small, and it doesn’t go around the nut, and you can’t try to fudge that one. Admittedly I’m not much of a fix-it so this hasn’t really happened to me recently … unless those wrenches are the different computer models and the nut is the forecast. Well, forecasting can drive you nuts, but I’m not letting this one drive me nuts. I’ve been trying to figure out in the era of suffering model guidance due to pandemic-induced data shortages which models are messing up which things in which events, but sometimes I’m not sure I’ve made any real progress, so I find myself just repeating the process each time from scratch, sort of like trying to create something in the kitchen. Well, I’m not much of a cook either, so I’m just going to stick to weather and tackle yet another forecast. Should be an easy one right? Fast-moving, non-phasing systems, quick hit, not a ton of snow, maybe a marginal rain vs. snow area for a small portion of the region. Should be a fairly straightforward forecast with a few glances at the guidance to make sure you’re not driving the wrong way down a one-way street. And then you have short range high resolution models spitting out numbers that even your best experience tell you can’t be right while guidance with less resolution is painting a picture much closer to what you envisioned based on your experience forecasting. “Yeah, but the high resolution guidance is made to be better, isn’t it?!” And then I sit here at 8:30 a.m. waiting for just “one more run” of the HRRR model before updating. Meanwhile, I’m thinking about maps I see posted from a source I really trust that are quite a bit higher than the idea I have of how this plays out. Is forecasting a little snowstorm really supposed to be this much of a challenge? I guess so! Bring it on. Let met get started on this update ….. riiiiiiiight after that HRRR finishes coming in. 😉 Ok, it’s done, here we go!

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

High pressure provides us with a nice winter day today and then 2 non-phasing disturbances bring us some unsettled weather for Sunday. The southern energy will be in the form of a fast moving low pressure area moving northeastward and passing southeast of New England, giving the region a 6 to 8 hour shot of snowfall, except that it should be warm enough for this to start as rain or a mix over coastal locations of southeastern MA and especially Cape Cod, after which it should quickly turn to snow there. Due to the fast-moving, non-phasing nature of this feature, while it can produce a pretty solid band or two of snow during Sunday afternoon and early evening, its short-duration will prevent a more significant snowfall than we are going to see. The northern energy will be coming along during the evening and has the potential to produce an additional snow shower or squall especially west and north of Boston. This will lead a shot of colder air with some wind into the region for Monday. The next low pressure system comes along in a fast-flowing jet stream for Tuesday, but we won’t be holding onto that much cold air so this system, while probably a snow event for interior areas, may be snow or rain closer to the coast and in southern locations. Will iron out the details over the next couple days on that one. That system is gone and it’s back to high pressure and fair weather Wednesday.

TODAY: Sunshine & patchy clouds. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Thickening overcast followed by snow arriving southwest to northeast late morning through early afternoon, may start as rain southeastern MA and southern RI before changing to snow, steadiest through the afternoon, and ending rapidly west to east by early evening. Snowfall accumulation 1-3 inches north and west of a Boston-Providence line, 3-5 inches to the southeast except 5-8 inches possible near the MA South Coast to the Upper Cape Cod region. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH morning, NE 10-20 MPH afternoon except 15-25 MPH southeastern MA with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a snow shower or squall possible north and west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 12-19. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow except snow may change to rain South Coast. Highs 30-35 southern NH and northern MA, 35-40 southern MA & RI. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation! Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Low to moderate confidence forecast. System passes to the south early February 11. Next storm threat for this area comes later February 12 into February 13 before drier/colder finish to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather eventsnear the border of very cold air north and milder air to the south, and in the general storm track path.