C-19 Chat Post – February 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

Low pressure takes the express lane through the St. Lawrence Valley today and its trailing frontal systems (warm front / cold front / occlusion) produce a minor precipitation event for us, mostly rain, a bit of snow interior higher elevations. This exits tonight and is replaced by dry and seasonably chilly weather Saturday. As the temperature falls below freezing tonight into early Saturday, watch for the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces that are wet from rain and/or melting snow! Continuing to watch 2 piece of energy in a split jet stream for Sunday. The current idea is that we’ll get clipped by the northern edge of the snow shield from the southern stream storm system during the late morning and early afternoon hours of Sunday which will result in a minor snowfall accumulation especially for the New England South Coast, while the northern energy will come along in the form of a cold front which may produce a few late-day snow showers or even a snow squall. This introduces colder air for Monday, briefly. Another low pressure system will race eastward in the jet stream and while a little bit uncertain on its fine details, I figure at this time that this system can produce a minor snow/mix event Monday night and early Tuesday as it comes through the region while weakening, as it won’t have a lot of support with it.

TODAY: Clouds thicken up. A period or two of rain from late morning through mid afternoon moving west to east across the region, except may fall as snow in interior higher elevations of central MA and southern NH with minor accumulation of under 1 inch. Highs 37-44. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow arriving morning and exiting afternoon with accumulation of a coating to 1 inch except 1-3 inches South Coast region. A few snow showers possible and a risk of a heavier snow squall later in the day. Highs 30-37. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, variable 5-15 MPH afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix possible. Temperatures steady or rising slightly to 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow/mix/rain possible early, then clearing. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Colder weather will likely be dominant as arctic air that enters the US well west of here spills slowly eastward in pieces while the storm track starts out mainly south of here but may edge closer by later in the period. More elaboration on this period of time in future blog updates.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Additional opportunities for wintry weather events during mid February near the border of very cold air north and milder air to the south, and in the general storm track path. Too soon for any details and trying to pick out any specific events.

C-19 Chat Post – February 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Upper level low pressure hung around overnight with a few more snow showers, adding another dusting or coating of snow to some locations. Now, it’s moving out and after a lot of clouds to start we’ll get a break in the unsettled weather as a sliver of high pressure moves in to bring some sun today, but that won’t last long as another low heads for the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday and its trailing frontal systems combine to bring us more precipitation, starting out as snow with a minor accumulation in southern NH and perhaps parts of adjacent northern MA, with rain elsewhere, then rain in all areas as the day goes on. This exits at night and is replaced by dry and colder weather Saturday. Next, 2 systems will fail to phase as they move by the region on Sunday, a southern stream one passing well to the south of New England early Sunday while a northern stream system heads into the region with its cold front later in the day, perhaps with a snow shower or squall, reinforcing the cold air for Monday when we may have another system rapidly approaching by the end of the day from the west in a fast-flowing jet stream.

TODAY: Lots of clouds and a lingering snow flurry possible, then sunshine. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain south and mix/snow northern MA and southern NH with accumulation of up to but mostly less than 1 inch, then numerous rain showers in all areas during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A few snow showers possible and a risk of a heavier snow squall later in the day. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Snow possible at night. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH morning, variable 5-15 MPH afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

This period looks colder and mostly dry with a storm track to the south of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

This period looks a little less cold but with a more active and unsettled pattern for our area.

C-19 Chat Post – February 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

The broad low pressure circulation that constitutes the winter storm still having a minor impact on the region today will gradually drift off to the east and away from us through tonight, but during that process we still have a little bit of ocean-effect snow on the North Shore and into Metro Boston this morning and another disturbance passing by to the southeast that will cause some snow shower activity across southern and eastern sections this morning into early afternoon, so some spotty small snowfall accumulations can be expected. In areas that were a little warmer during the recent storm and some melting occurred, a lot of that froze up overnight so beware of icy patches if you are heading out today. A narrow area of high pressure moves in and provides us with one nice winter day on Thursday before the next system brings unsettled weather in for Friday. This will be a minor impact event as low pressure tracks well northwest of New England and drags its frontal boundaries through the region – warm front followed quickly by cold front. Enough cold air will be around for a minor snowfall event at the start of this mainly in northern MA and southern NH with minor accumulation there, but the bulk of what falls will be in the form of rain and come later in the day. This system will push offshore and open the door to colder air coming back in over the weekend. The next storm threat we are watching is for Sunday, but right now my opinion is that 2 pieces of energy needing to phase for this to become anything significant will not phase and we’ll just have some cloudiness and a chance of light snowfall. However, with it being day 5 of this forecast, apply the uncertainty of a forecast 5 days out along with the additional questionable guidance performance, and it goes without saying that we’ll have to keep a close eye on this.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of light snow or snow showers through mid afternoon. Spotty dustings and coatings of snow. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain south and mix/snow northern MA and southern NH with accumulation of up to but mostly less than 1 inch, then numerous rain showers in all areas during the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Watch for black ice formation!

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or flurries. Highs 27-34. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Leaning toward a colder/drier period of weather with a weaker storm track to the south of the region. More about this in upcoming blog posts…

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Low confidence but leaning toward a slight temperature moderation but more active weather pattern for mid February. Elaboration to come…

C-19 Chat Post – February 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

I’ll start by saying that looking at the snowfall accumulation map from the NWS this morning, this may be the most “variable” snowfall distribution I have seen in all my years of forecasting with some of the sharpest snowfall gradients. Looking back, the forecast was “ok”, off for some areas, on for others. Areas that I thought may get a slushy inch or two saw a few flakes and a slushy coating at most before turning to rain, while my top range was ok except for a few 17 to 20 inch amounts. Amazingly, the 20 inch amount occurred in town that borders my home town of Woburn – Wilmington MA, while here at Woods Hill, while I still have to officially measure what fell since 1:30 a.m. when I was sitting at 9.5 inches, I’m probably around 10 for the total as it looks like about 1/2 inch managed to add up after that. And then you have the gradient from about 1 inch at Logan to 13 inches just down the road and up the hill at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton. Synoptic banding, elevation, and a coastal front all played major rolls in the storm – a forecaster’s nightmare in a way, but a weather nut’s fascination. I’ll say that the latter is the bigger deal for me on this one, personally. But now it’s time to move on and look ahead. We still have some impact from this storm system today and even into Wednesday as its complex elongated low center does a little dance just offshore before pulling away. So we’ll have a spotty mainly light variety of precipitation today and some additional snow or snow showers for a while on Wednesday, not producing any significant accumulation. Then we get a break Thursday as high pressure moves in with a nice day. The next low passes northwest of our area on Friday with its frontal system bringing some unsettled weather, probably starting with some light snow/mix and ending up as rain showers. Behind this comes drier but somewhat colder air for the start of the weekend…

P.S.: Punxutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning, which means he agrees with the WHW long range forecast for the month of March. 😉

TODAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers of rain and pockets of freezing rain, sleet, & snow. No significant ice or snow accumulation but watch for slippery areas. Highs 35-42 morning, falling slightly in the afternoon. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coastal areas except 45-55 MPH Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of light snow or snow showers through mid afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of rain/mix/snow possible in the morning. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Watching for a possible storm system to impact the region with snow/mix/rain on February 7, departing by February 8 with windy/cold weather in its wake. Fair and still cold but more tranquil February 9-11 but another disturbance may pass not that far south of the region about February 10.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Temperatures look a little more moderate heading into mid month. Next unsettled weather threat comes during the early and middle of this period, but this remains a low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – February 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Welcome to February! We start the second month of 2021 off with a winter storm. The timing of the event has been slipping a little more to the earlier side with time, and we’ve already had some snow from the evolving system falling in parts of southern New England, even some minor accumulation, but it will continue to fight a dry air mass over the region and take several hours to really get going and make a solid push northward. At the same time, some ocean-effect snow showers may be drifting in from the east. Looking at the temperature profile this morning, with 30s over Cape Cod and 10s over interior southern New England, we’re probably already looking at the formation of a coastal front, probably a little further west than we typically see it. This will allow snow that falls over interior MA and northeastern CT and maybe northwestern RI, well as interior southern NH to be a little fluffier and pile up better, whereas snow that falls east of that boundary will be a wetter variety. We’ll have to monitor for where the exact set-up of this boundary is, but my best guess is the I-495 belt for the longest period of time. But, the east winds are occurring really over Cape Cod as of 7 a.m., with winds from the northeast or north elsewhere, so the boundary itself is probably setting up to the southeast of Boston initially before it migrates westward with time. I’m still expecting the strongest band of precipitation to push from south to north through the region from early afternoon to early evening in southern areas (CT, RI, southern MA) and later afternoon into late evening in areas to the north (central to northern MA into southern NH). I am not making any big changes to the snow amounts I posted yesterday, other than adding an inch or two and allowing for a little more fluff factor over inland areas, and of course the rain/snow line will be monitored as it certainly looks like it will be involved over Cape Cod and into parts of the MA South Shore, and then we’ll see how far it can get beyond that. It may never quite have enough push to get into or through the Boston area until after the heaviest precipitation has shut down anyway, so here is an updated run-down of my expected snowfall accumulation after we’re done with that main band of precipitation late tonight…

Up to 2 inches outer Cape Cod, 2-4 inches remainder of Cape Cod and immediate South Coast to the eastern side of Buzzards Bay and South Shore of MA up to Plymouth, as well as the upper part of Cape Ann MA, 4-8 inches immediate NH Seacoast to immediate North Shore of MA, Logan Airport, interior southeastern MA to Narragansett Bay, 8-12 inches most of RI and northeastern CT as well as south central MA northeastward through Metro Boston and up to northeastern MA and southeastern NH away from the immediate coast, and 12-16 inches north central MA through southwestern NH, highest amounts in the higher elevations. It’s important to keep in mind the sharp snowfall gradient expected in eastern areas and that on-the-fly adjustments may be needed as very subtle changes in the overall storm behavior leads to significant changes in snowfall amounts in these sharp gradient areas.

As far as coastal impact from the storm, we’ll have to keep an eye on the today’s afternoon high tide for some minor flooding in southern coastal MA and RI but not expecting a big issue, then minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding with both high tide cycles Tuesday on east-facing and north-facing shores especially. And to summarize the power outage risk, it will be there, but I don’t expect widespread problems, since the areas with the greatest snow accumulation now look like they may have a little bit of a drier consistency to the snow at least to start out. However do expect enough sticky snow to fall in at least parts of the region for potential power disruptions. The strongest wind gusts being along the coast and especially Cape Cod may also contribute to some power outages there as well.

Looking ahead, we stay unsettled Tuesday with scattered rain/snow showers in a slightly milder atmosphere, before colder air sneaks back in on Wednesday and the energy from the original low pressure area comes across with the potential for some morning snow or snow showers, though that does not look like significant additional snowfall – more nuisance variety. The rest of Wednesday should turn dry, breezy, and chilly behind the departing complex storm system before high pressure moves in for a nice winter day on Thursday, allowing any remaining storm cleanup to finish up. By Friday, it’s back to unsettled weather, but this time its from low pressure passing northwest of New England. Its warm front may cause brief rain/mix/snow early before we warm up and see a risk of rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front.

TODAY: Overcast. Patchy light snow anywhere and a few snow showers off the ocean possible in eastern MA this morning. Steady snow arriving south to north from late morning through early afternoon across the entire area, may mix with rain quickly over Cape Cod. Highs ranging from near 20 in north central MA an southwestern NH to near 35 Cape Cod. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH interior areas, NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts especially southeastern MA.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Moderate to heavy snow except mix coast and rain Cape Cod evening, tapering off to a few rain/snow showers south to north overnight. Temperatures rise to 27-34 except 35-42 coastal areas, warmest Cape Cod. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 40 MPH coastal areas, except 25-35 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH Cape Cod.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Occasional rain & snow showers. Highs 35-42 morning, falling slightly in the afternoon. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH coastal areas except 45-55 MPH Cape Cod, especially in the morning and midday.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional mix/snow showers evening. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow or snow showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32.Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of rain/mix/snow possible in the morning. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Colder air moves back into the region during the February 6-7 weekend but not as cold as the air mass we are just getting rid of now, so while there is the chance of unsettled weather from 1 or 2 low pressure areas impacting the region through early February 8, the precipitation type and timing is indeterminate at this point and this forecast will be brought into focus over the next few days. Expecting fair and colder weather to return later February 8 through February 9 with a moderation in temperature by the end of the period when we’ll have to watch for a bit of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Temperatures look a little more moderate heading into mid month. Next unsettled weather threat comes during the middle of this period, but this remains a low confidence forecast with only vague ideas possible for now. More evaluation of the mid month pattern can be done after we get by the current storm.

C-19 Chat Post – February 1 2021