DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 16-20)

We are now at the half-way point of the month of March and in the home stretch of winter, as the Vernal Equinox will occur at 5:37 a.m. Saturday. Now, we all know that just because “spring” arrives on the calendar that we may still see some cold weather and even some frozen precipitation, depending on our pattern, well into springtime, but before that we must determine, among the rest of the sensible weather, if we will see some frozen stuff before we get to Saturday, and the answer is “probably”. We’ll get back to that in a moment. First, we have seen the core of some very cold air pass by and now, while we have a cold but fairly calm start this morning, while today will be a chilly day compared to normal for mid March, the lack of wind will make it feel less so, but we won’t have bright sunshine all day as high clouds are already moving in as of sunrise in advance of low pressure moving in this direction. However, this low is running up against high pressure that is in no hurry to move and is also like a mountain of dry air. This will essentially obliterate the storm system as it comes in, with just some cloudiness, and the remote risk of a brief period of light snow in the CT/RI (maybe far southern MA) areas sometime tonight. High pressure retreats a little on Wednesday but is close enough so that St. Patrick’s Day here in southeastern New England will be a decent day – some clouds, some sun, and a bit milder than today. The modest warm-up continues into Thursday as high pressure slips off to the southeast, but another strong and cold high pressure area will ridge across eastern Canada to our north and then start pressing southward. At the same time, our next storm system will be approaching from the southwest, with its elongating center certain to pass south of our region Thursday night into Friday. This system will have more moisture with it and it is much more likely to bring us a period of precipitation from late-day or evening Thursday through the early to mid morning hours of Friday, while at the same time our mild air gives way to much colder air from north to south. This likely means we’ll be dealing with a rain changing to snow situation. But the question is, how fast does the cold arrive versus the tapering off and departing of the precipitation? While it’s still a few days away and not a situation that a confident solid call can be made yet, my current idea is that we’ll see the cold air arrive soon enough so that most of the region gets a period of snow, and that the snow may accumulate for a while before it ends. But we know that at this time of year it would take pretty heavy snow, which we probably won’t have, to accumulate much, and that it will also be fighting daylight not long after it changes, so that there would be a relatively short window of time for accumulation. Fine-tuning to come… And once we get to later Friday, it’s dry and briefly colder, with a breezy and seasonably cool but fair weather day for the first of spring Saturday, as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes with low pressure off to our east.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief light snow possible mainly south of I-90. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain late. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, changing to snow from north to south. Lows 25-32. Wind variable becoming NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow tapering to snow showers morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)

High pressure is expected to move overhead then off to the southeast with dry weather and a moderating temperature trend, often cooler coastal areas during the days, March 21-23. A disturbance from the west should bring a now fairly rare chance of rainfall before it dries out and turns colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)

Colder start to the period, then moderating temperatures toward month’s end. Possibly some unsettled weather during the temperature transition, though the overall pattern looks fairly dry.

C-19 Chat Post – March 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)

Beware the Ides of March, that is, beware you don’t freeze out there today! It’s a cold one, with yet another core of arctic air crossing the region. It surely has not been the coldest winter, though we’ve had our cold shots. This latest one, along with its wind, peaks today before easing up. Other than a few spot snow flurries first thing this morning from a touch of instability, it will be a dry day with sunshine and some passing clouds. Our ever-increasing March sun angle and the fact the sun now sets late in the 6 p.m. hour will definitely prevent it from feeling fully like mid winter though, despite the wind and cold. We’ll have a cold but more calm night tonight and Tuesday will still be a chilly day as clouds move in ahead of approaching low pressure. But this low will be running into a wall of dry air and won’t be able to produce much more than a touch of light snow mainly south of I-90 tonight into early Wednesday before falling apart, leaving Wednesday (St. Patrick’s Day) as an ok day. Another low pressure area makes a run at the region later in the week as we see a temperature moderation, so some rain should be moving into the area later Thursday. However, much colder air will be nearby, and will start to work back in Thursday night into Friday, turning whatever moisture is left to fall back into snow, though it should be on the light side before dry air re-takes control later Friday as this system starts to pull away from the region.

TODAY: A few light snow showers around eastern MA early this morning, otherwise sun & passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Some light snow possible mainly south of I-90. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain late. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, changing to snow from north to south. Lows 25-32. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow morning, tapering to snow showers before ending early afternoon. Breaking clouds later. Highs 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)

Spring Equinox occurs early morning March 20, and high pressure should build in for fair and generally nice weather by March standards for the March 20-21 weekend. Dry weather should continue into early next week before some unsettled weather arrives near the end of the period, but it looks like a mild pattern at that time with colder air staying up in Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)

Some Canadian cold may try to sneak back down into the region with the help of a couple disturbances, but the overall pattern continues to look drier than average.

C-19 Chat Post – March 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 14-18)

Welcome to Daylight Savings Time! Reminder: NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for high fire danger again today and this will likely be the case tomorrow as well. The combination of drying ground, dry air, and gusty wind will result in conditions that any brush fires can develop easily and spread quickly. Weatherwise, a quick update today – no significant changes to yesterday’s discussion and forecast. One more cold front swings through the region today with a few rain and snow showers this afternoon and another surge of cold, this one of deeper arctic origin and will remind you of the March 2 cold shot as we get a lot of wind later today through tonight and Monday’s temperature fails to make it back to freezing in much of the region. Low pressure approaches Tuesday but should lose the battle to dry air over the region, though we’ll deal with more cloudiness toward midweek, and then a stronger low pressure area will approach by Thursday with a better chance of mix/rain arriving.

TODAY: Sunny start then variably cloudy. Scattered rain and snow showers late morning through mid afternoon. Highs 40-47 in the morning then temperature falling through the 30s in the afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Mix/rain arriving, may change to snow at night. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)

Rain/mix/snow possible to start the period from one low pressure area then drier for the balance of the period. Temperatures near to below normal as we’ll tend to be on the colder side of a boundary between a cold eastern Canada and a warmer US Southeast.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)

The overall regime will keep us in a battle zone between lingering winter cold in Canada and warmer spring weather in the US Southeast, again typical for this time of year. This pattern leaves us vulnerable to quick weather changes and temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – March 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)

Two cold fronts down, one to go, in this surge back to cold weather again. Behind the first front yesterday we were still able to enjoy a very mild March day as the air mass was only very slightly cooler than the one that preceded the front, but last night the second front blasted through, literally, with pretty strong wind gusts that again took down weakened tree limbs in some areas, and we feel that wind still blowing this morning, as it will do much of the day, though gradually backing off as the afternoon goes along. It’s delivered a colder air mass too, and we’re back to reality in the temperature department today (40s for highs, but with colder wind chill). Just when you think we’re about to come out of it Sunday, front #3 passes by with perhaps some rain and snow showers on Sunday, and behind it comes year another surge of wind and the coldest air of this spell Sunday night into Monday – the Ides of March will have a stinging cold bite this year. The chilly air will ease back toward the middle of next week as we continue to watch for impact from low pressure trying to move in from the west, but the latest trends are for high pressure to move over the region later Monday and hold strong enough into Tuesday so that a lot of the moisture from this system will dry up. With some lower level moisture being drawn in from the Atlantic as high pressure moves off to the east, we will probably have to at least deal with some increase in cloudiness by Tuesday and Wednesday. Before moving into the detailed forecast, it’s imperative to note that the NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for today for high brush fire danger, due to drier ground in areas that have lost snow cover, very low relative humidity and gusty wind. Under these conditions which will exist today, and likely through Monday, brush fires can start easily and spread quickly. Don’t use open flames outside (grilling, back yard burning, etc.). One spark can ignite a fire that can grow and spread and threaten property and wildlife. This may not be California, but we do have a fire season, and it’s starting now.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH morning, diminishing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered rain and snow showers late morning through mid afternoon. Highs 40-47 in the morning then temperature falling through the 30s in the afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)

Being near the boundary of cold air in Canada and milder air over the US Southeast will leave us vulnerable to unsettled weather and a rain/mix/snow even is very possible March 18-19, followed by some improvement. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)

The overall regime will keep us in a battle zone between lingering winter cold in Canada and warmer spring weather in the US Southeast, again typical for this time of year. This pattern leaves us vulnerable to quick weather changes and temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – March 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)

Three cold fronts bring us back to reality and then some over the next few days, reminding us this is March, and for a handful of days-to-come, still winter. We start out pleasantly mild today as the first cold front goes through with a few sprinkles or light showers of rain (one occurring here as I write this at 6:30 a.m.), and the wind kicks up but we don’t really see any cold air with this first front, just a step-down from yesterday’s warmth, however still significantly above the mid March normal. It’s when the second front comes through tonight, perhaps with a rain or snow shower, that we see the first wave of cold surge into the region, accompanied by more wind overnight and into Saturday, enough that a few isolated power outages from downed tree limbs may occur. The wind will back of a bit during the day Saturday and while it will be significantly colder than today, the strong mid March sun (mixed with a few clouds) will keep it tolerable. The third cold front will come through during Sunday with a few clouds and an outside risk of a passing snow shower, but mainly its effect will be to bring in even colder air for Sunday night and Monday. The biggest question of this forecast is Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the west with cold air still in place. The medium range guidance, no surprise, ranges widely in its outcomes from a miss and continued dry weather, to a measurable snowfall. I’ll put it as a chance for a variety of precipitation and will fine-tune from there.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a possible rain shower early morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 except 52-59 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief rain or snow shower possible mid evening. Lows 24-31. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, gusts to around 30 MPH in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy Highs 40-47 in the morning. Falling temperatures in the afternoon. Wind 5-15 MPH morning, shifting to N and increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to slightly below 0 at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)

We’ll be just on the colder side of a boundary between a continued cold Canada and a warmer US Southeast, as previously mentioned. What remains to be seen is if and when any storminess will impact our region. After eyeing a potential for Tuesday, we look for another one around March 18-19 based on current timing. While the general pattern is not too tough to see, the day-to-day weather is, so this is an area that much more analysis will be needed going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)

The overall regime will keep us in a battle zone between lingering winter cold in Canada and warmer spring weather in the US Southeast, again typical for this time of year. This pattern leaves us vulnerable to quick weather changes and temperature swings.

C-19 Chat Post – March 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)

Our warm surge peaks today with a southwest wind increasing across the region, driving the warm air in. But of course, any time in the late winter into very early spring the ocean waters around New England are at their coldest of the season, and that influence will be seen in the lower temperatures across the South Coast region and also cooler along portions of our irregular eastern shoreline where pieces of land stick out in such a way that there is enough water to their southwest to cool them down as well. Two cold fronts will cross there region, one Friday morning and another Friday evening, to put an end to the mild party, but the first front, which may produce a brief rain shower as it passes, is not delivering the cold air, just a wind shift and an ever-so-slightly cooler air mass than the one we’ll be in today. It is the second front which will bring us back to reality for the coming weekend, which will be decidedly colder, along with wind. Initially, some of the wind Friday night into early Saturday may be strong enough to result in some downed tree limbs on weaker trees, with isolated power outages. The weekend will be dry as we get a fresh delivery of arctic air, and this cold and dry weather will continue through Monday, “The Ides of March”…

TODAY: Areas of light fog early morning. Partly sunny. Highs ranging widely from 45-52 Nantucket and outer Cape Cod to 53-60 remainder of South Coast to 61-68 most other areas except 65-72 interior valley locations. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Temperatures rise to near 50 where they were in the 40s previously, elsewhere lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a possible rain shower early morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 except 52-59 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0 at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)

Cold Canada, warm US Southeast, we should be near but on the colder side of the boundary for most of this period. Temperatures below normal. Watching for two possible low pressure impacts that may include frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)

The early days of astronomical spring will find us still in a battle zone between lingering winter air in Canada and warming early spring air in the US Southeast. This is not atypical whatsoever for our region at this time of year. We’ll be vulnerable to temperature swings and additional unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – March 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)

A display of March temperature variability today as inland sections warm and the coast is chilled by the development of a sea breeze. This is the result of high pressure overhead, light wind, a warming air mass and plenty of sun to work on heating the landmass, which results in rising of warmed air, which then has to be replaced by air from somewhere. The logical “choice” by the atmosphere: the air over the chilly Atlantic, more dense, sitting right at the surface and ready to move on inland to take the place of the departing (rising) warm air. That is your sea breeze – and we’ll see it today. Tomorrow though, it’ll be different, as we will be in a stronger southwesterly air flow due to a stronger pressure gradient (different between high pressure off to our south and low pressure passing to our north). But while this southwest wind warms most of us up, it will be much modified passing over Long Island Sound therefore will prevent the South Coast from warming too much. We also see a smaller scale version of this along our irregular eastern shoreline where pieces of land stick out in such a way that there is enough water to their southwest to cool them down as well. We’ll see this in places like Nahant MA, the south side of Cape Ann, and other localized places. But for the city of Boston, there will be a significant difference, perhaps as much as 20 degrees, between today’s and Thursday’s high temperatures. As has been the case for a couple of days, how warm it gets on Friday will depend on the timing of a cold front. Actually, it looks like 2 fronts are going to come through, one in the morning that may bring with it a few rain showers, and a stronger one in the evening, behind which a sharper turn to cold air lies. So between the two, we will still have a fairly mild day Friday, but most areas should fail to match their high temperatures of Thursday. Our weekend will see a downward temperature trend but with dry weather. On the way there though, we may see a period of strong and gusty winds Friday night into a portion of Saturday – not as strong as the wind event we recently saw, but may still be enough to take down some tree limbs and weakened trees and lead to a few power outages.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52 coastal plain, 53-60 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43 evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast and 45-52 islands and outer Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a possible rain shower early to mid morning. Partly to mostly sunny late morning on. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)

Temperatures near to below normal, likely coldest early in this period. Watching for unsettled weather around March 16-17 otherwise mostly dry.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)

While the vernal equinox occurs on March 20 our position between cold air in Canada and warmer air in the US Southeast leaves us vulnerable to unsettled weather, which may include frozen precipitation, and temperatures near to below normal for this period heading into late month.

C-19 Chat Post – March 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)

A warm front passed by overnight with cloudiness and a few areas to the north seeing a few snow showers, and a weak cold front will cross the region later today but you’ll hardly notice it – we just have a nice day in store. The warm-up increases for the interior Wednesday but a weak wind gradient means that coastal areas will have a sea breeze and will be much cooler, but again another fair weather day. All areas get into southwesterly winds on Thursday which will be warmer for most, with the exception of coastal areas where a southwest wind has to travel over some ocean water first – those places, particularly the South Coast, will be coolest that day. Friday, a cold front slices across the region from north to south, maybe bringing a few rain showers, certainly a lot more clouds, and probably resulting in an “upside-down” temperature day, warmest the first half, cooling later, again highly dependent on the precise timing of the front. Saturday will be a “back-to-reality” day, with temperatures more typical for mid March but with dry weather as high pressure presses in from Canada.

TODAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW up to 10 MPH then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52 coastal plain, 53-63 well inland. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast through midday, then falling temperatures by later in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW then N from north to south midday on.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)

Dry, colder (30s) March 14 to end the weekend and early next week for the Ides on March 15. Watching for unsettled weather as low pressure approaches and moves through around March 16 and it may include some frozen precipitation. Drier and still on the chilly side for later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)

Near to below normal temperatures with additional unsettled weather possible as we’ll be near a boundary between a cold Canada and mild US Southeast.