C-19 Chat Post – March 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)

One week of March in the books, and the second week of the third month of 2021 will showcase some of the swings of weather, especially temperature, that the month is known for here in New England. But we’ll start out with a fairly tranquil and chilly day today under the influence of high pressure. As this high center slips to the south, first a warm front will cross the region from west to east tonight producing an increase in cloudiness. While a band of snow will be most prominent along this boundary across northern New England, some areas of snow are also possible here in southeastern New England as it passes by, but not enough to perhaps lightly coat the ground with snow in the pre-dawn hours. Tuesday, the front will be by, the sun will return, and any snow that dusted the ground would quickly vanish as we saw significantly milder air arrive. But that will be just a preview of what’s to come. First, a weak cold frontal boundary will slip into the region nearly unnoticed as it will be running out of forward motion later Tuesday and also have little or no cloud cover with it, and then the boundary will push back to the north again at night. As high pressure sits along the Middle Atlantic Coast and extends offshore, the region will be in a southwesterly air flow through midweek. Wednesday, this air flow may be weak enough so that midday and afternoon sea breeze form along the NH & MA eastern shores. This would hold temperatures back from reaching the levels they reach inland. The other except, both Wednesday & Thursday, will be that a southwesterly air flow comes off ocean water along the South Coast, which would be cooler as well. When we get to Friday, we’ll see cloudiness and a risk of rain showers as a cold front moves in from the north, but the temperature forecast for that day is critically dependent on the timing of this front. It’s a day-five forecast at this point but my early guess is that the frontal boundary will still be north of the WHW forecast area when the day starts, so it will be quite a mild day as well, but not until its end, because it will be a day when the temperature starts to drop significantly as the front pushes through. Obviously, there’s fine-tuning to be done for Friday’s forecast.

TODAY: Sunshine but some high clouds in the western sky later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds advance west to east. Snow showers possible overnight with scattered dustings and light coatings of snow. Lows 22-29. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW up to 10 MPH then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 except 50-57 South Coast and some East Coast areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but probable sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast through midday, then falling temperatures by later in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW then N from north to south midday on.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)

Dry, cooler to colder weekend (40s Saturday, 30s Sunday) as high pressure builds in from Canada. Watch the period later March 15 to early March 17 for unsettled weather which may include some wintry precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)

Near to below normal temperatures with additional unsettled weather possible as we’ll be near a boundary between a cold Canada and mild US Southeast.

C-19 Chat Post – March 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)

A large area of low pressure that has been sitting over the Canadian Maritime Provinces for the last few days delivering late winter cold to us will pull away today as an area of high pressure slides slowly eastward from the Great Lakes keeping us breezy and cold but bright for today. Monday, this high will sink a bit more to the southeast through the Ohio Valley and the cold air will ease up a bit more on us with more dry weather. A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region early Tuesday with some cloudiness and a possible snow shower as it will still be cold, but a quick warm-up ensues after the passage of this trough with a good chance that much of the region breaks into the 50s during Tuesday. A little bubble of high pressure behind this trough will keep the winds light enough on Wednesday so while the warm-up continues inland, it may be temporarily delayed at the coast due to the development of a sea breeze. But Thursday, the main high center will be along and offshore of the Middle Atlantic Coast and the boundary of Canadian cold will still be to our north, and that will become the warmest day for most of the region, except once again temperature will be significantly modified and cooler where a southwest wind comes off ocean water along the South Coast and in the irregularly shaped land areas along the East Coast of MA that sit north and east of water (example, Nahant and parts of Cape Ann).

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening then clouds with a possible snow shower overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 except cooler South Coast and some East Coast areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but probable sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)

Our area at least starts out mild on March 12 but we’ll have to watch for the timing of a cold front from the north to see if we make it through the day in the mild air or turn drastically cooler, which will happen at some point before or by March 13. Both days have the potential for unsettled weather, the first with the front, the second with a possible wave of low pressure moving along the boundary after it’s gone by. High pressure should bring dry/chilly weather for March 14 before we have to watch for additional unsettled weather in the March 15-16 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)

Cold Canada, warm US Southeast, and we will be in between the two, in the battle zone, probably on the colder side of it. This results in a potential for wintry precipitation at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – March 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)

The next 5 days will feature dry weather, but during this period we will undergo a shift in the weather pattern. The upper level low pressure area and its attendant core of arctic air which brought us a bitter blast earlier this week before moving away to allow a one-day warm-up on Wednesday did a loop back into eastern Canada as a larger low pressure system and has been sitting there for a couple days, pumping more cold and wind into the region. This system is going to pull away at a snail’s pace during this weekend, which will still be cold, but we will see an abatement of the wind with time. When we get to Monday with a westerly air flow, it will just be more of a “normal” March chill. Tuesday may end up a little warmer but it may be a modest warm-up initially as a little trough swings through and flips the wind back to the northwest for a while. Finally, Wednesday will be the day that high pressure has made its way to the Mid Atlantic Coast and extending offshore, and putting our region into a much milder southwesterly air flow – and you’ll feel it. But there is a caveat. Where that air travels over water first, the warm up will not be nearly as pronounced. Also, if the wind flow is not strong enough, even east-facing shores could see the development of a sea breeze on Wednesday afternoon which would keep them significantly cooler. We will see how that goes…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60 except cooler South Coast and possibly turning cooler East Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, possible sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)

March 11 should be the mildest day of next week with a decent southwesterly air flow. Transition follows, but timing of arrival of cold air from north is questionable – sometime during March 12 as it stands now. This will determine how mild that day can get, but it will likely turn unsettled March 12-13 during this transition before high pressure moves in later in the period with dry but chilly weather. Not a high confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)

Cold Canada, warm US Southeast, and we will be in between the two, in the battle zone, probably on the colder side of it. This results in a potential for wintry precipitation at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – March 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

A large low pressure area in eastern Canada continues its influence on our weather today and through the weekend keeping it cold, dry, and breezy, with windiest weather today and a gradual abatement of wind during the weekend. We’ll also see a lot of cloudiness in the low’s circulation over our sky today, before sunshine become dominant for a good part of the weekend. When we get to early next week, a change takes place. The low in eastern Canada pulls away, and high pressure which had been to our west sinks to the south, taking up residence along the Mid Atlantic Coast. This will result in a notable temperature moderation here with continued dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

High pressure over the Middle Atlantic States extending offshore as well will provide us with a short-lived but significant warm-up for a couple to a few days during the middle of next week. The wild card will be how soon does a cold front from Canada bring us back to reality? Sometime March 12 is my current estimate. After that we turn colder and have to eye the potential for some unsettled weather as well in the March 12-14 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)

A blocking pattern should keep us on the cooler to colder side once again, but being near a boundary between a cold Canada and northeastern US and much warmer air to the south increases the chances for unsettled weather, which may include additional opportunities for some frozen precipitation as we move through the final days of the astronomical winter season…

C-19 Chat Post – March 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)

Hope your enjoyed your one-day reprieve from the cold because it’s coming back for the rest of this week, though not in as much force as previously, and definitely not with the same magnitude of wind, although it will be breezy over the next few days as low pressure does a long, slow loop across eastern Canada and high pressure sits off to the west. This pattern will also continue to protect the region from what could have been a storm threat from the south around the weekend. You will notice a change as early as the conclusion of the weekend, marking a pulling away of the low pressure area and the high center sinking off to the southeast, so by the time we get to the start of next week on Monday, it will feel much more pleasant again.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)

High pressure shifts to the Middle Atlantic and before any cold fronts can sneak down from Canada we warm to above normal for a couple of days to start this period, before that cold air does make a come-back (timing unknown). Should remain generally dry through the period, however.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)

A blocking pattern should keep us on the cooler to colder side once again, but being near a boundary between a cold Canada and northeastern US and much warmer air to the south increases the chances for unsettled weather, which may include additional opportunities for some frozen precipitation. Winter is not over yet…

C-19 Chat Post – March 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)

A warm front crosses the region this morning, made evident by some cloudiness, but the sun returns to areas that are clouded over by later this morning and by this afternoon, temperatures that are some 15 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday, along with much less wind, will feel quite mild in comparison to the mid winter feel of just 24 hours prior. Don’t get used to the brief warm up though, because the cold core that came down across the area on Tuesday is the result of a little lobe of Polar Vortex, which, because of an evolving blocking pattern, is not going to just exit cleanly through the Canadian Maritime Provinces, but do a loop there, and move back to the west before drifting southward over the northeastern US once again. The leading edge of this at the surface will be a cold front that drops southward through the region tonight. However, since it is March and the sun angle is what it is, this lobe of cold will be modified, so while we will fall to below normal in the temperature department again later this week and through the weekend, it will not be to the degree (no pun intended) of what just left us. The other purpose this pattern and resultant low pressure circulation will do is protect the Northeast from any further visits from low pressure to the south, once a medium range threat for the end of this week, and now apparently that no longer. We will have a couple troughs coming through the region around the upper level low pressure circulation, and this will be responsible for some diurnal cloud development Thursday especially with the aid of the hills & mountains to the north and west, and some of this cloud cover may migrate southeastward into the WHW forecast area if it is not consumed by the dry air in place. On Friday, a little sharper trough may help induce a few snow flurries from another round of diurnal clouds, but these should be more scattered in nature. For the weekend, a fairly similar set-up to Thursday-Friday is expected, with breezy conditions and below normal temperatures. So our one-day “warm-up” today will be followed by a March chill which will last right through the first weekend of the month.

TODAY: Variably cloudy through mid morning. Mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)

Low pressure in eastern Canada departs and high pressure sinks to the south of New England providing additional mostly dry weather but this time with a warming trend pushing temperatures to above normal levels. The question to answer is when this warm-up will come to an end via a cold front from the north as colder air re-builds in Canada. That could happen as early as March 11 or 12 along with some unsettled weather by then, but medium range guidance disagrees on this so it will be something to monitor. We will, however, enjoy a preview of spring for at least a few days.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)

A reorganizing pattern will feature a developing block which will turn our area colder again and eventually provide the opportunity for unsettled weather as well as we head into the final days of astronomical winter.

C-19 Chat Post – March 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)

It’s a dry forecast, with temperature changes to be the events of note during this 5-day period. Today starts with us in the midst of a brief but brutal shot of arctic air with wind, but a slight easing of the wind and the higher angle of the sun in early March will make this afternoon more tolerable than it would have been had this taken place back in January. We’ll see plenty of sunshine too, with only a few passing fair weather clouds trying to form and shredded by the wind. A warm front will cross the region tonight from west to east with some cloudiness, but light snowfall with it will stay north of the region. Wednesday will be the one “warmer” day, getting into the 40s across the region before a cold front slips through from the north at night and turns us colder again for the balance of the week (Thursday-Saturday). Some diurnal cloudiness may limit the sun later Thursday and I’m still expecting some passing clouds and maybe a brief snow flurry on Friday as a pool of cold air moves overhead. Been watching Saturday as the beginning of a period of opportunity for a storm threat, but at this time, that day looks dry as well as we’ll have a large low pressure area in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure to the west keeping this area protected from any storminess to the south.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often below 15.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to W overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 18-25 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)

A weak trough over the region may allow a few snow showers on March 7 but mainly dry weather is expected for most of this period. Right now it looks like any storminess to the south early in the period won’t be able to get this far north as the upper level pattern in place at the end of the first 5 days of the forecast period will continue to protect the region, but still should keep an eye out as things like this have not quite materialized as guidance suggested in the past. We may see a short-lived warm-up later in the period

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)

Blocking pattern. A couple of opportunities for unsettled weather which may include frozen precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – March 2 2021