C-19 Chat Post – April 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 22-26)

Happy Earth Day 2021! Take care of our planet! It is our only home…. Well, this year’s edition of Earth Day here in southeastern New England may as well be on a day in late February or early March for how it’s going to feel. The last couple days’ taste of the warmer side of spring, ending with yesterday’s showers and thunderstorms, is now a memory as we’ve had a strong cold front pass by, opening the door to a strong shot of polar air from Canada on gusty northwesterly winds. The mechanism pulling this air into our region at the surface is the pressure gradient between the now stronger low pressure wave that went by us yesterday as it travels through eastern Canada and a high pressure area sliding southeastward from the Ohio Valley toward the Middle Atlantic States. Other than a narrow ocean-effect band of stratocumulus clouds just north of the tip of Cape Cod, and some strips of similar clouds from the mountains making it into southwestern NH, central MA, and one closer to the South Coast, much of the region is starting out with sunshine despite the blustery and cold conditions, but there is plenty of even colder air aloft and not only will we have additional cumulus & stratocumulus clouds coming in from the northwest today, but additional clouds will fill in any clear spaces as the sun heats the ground below. This is a process we see on a fairly regular basis here in the Northeast, and it most frequently happens in spring and sometimes autumn. There will be enough instability that a few rain and even snow showers may fall from some of these clouds as we go through the day and into early this evening, before they finally start to break up and dissipate. Friday’s weather will still feature a gusty breeze, though less strong that today, and we’ll have more sunshine as a downsloping westerly wind will dry the air and warmer air above leads to less cloud development. As high pressure moves offshore during Saturday we’ll see the wind flow go from west to southwest and we’ll warm nicely, except for typical cooler South Coast regions. But with things on the move with this week’s zonal pattern, the next low pressure area will be making a run at the region by Sunday, which looks like a wet, windy, and chilly day, but any rain is needed, as we remain in a significant deficit. This system will move beyond the region by Monday, a day that will be breezy and drier but on the cool side as well…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a passing rain or snow shower possible, favoring southern NH and northern MA. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a rain or snow shower early. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing overnight.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 65-72, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 47-54. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 47-54 or may fall slightly. Wind E 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering drizzle and possible rain showers early. Lows 40-47. Wind N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

Zonal (west to east) flow pattern starts to transition to blocking again… Similar to a recent blocking pattern, we’ll be on the dry side of it with high pressure dominating our weather with mild to warm days which will feature coastal sea breezes at times.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 2-6)

A general blocking pattern should remain in place, but slow movement of weather systems will occur and we may end up with low pressure south of our region and an increased chance for cloud cover and eventually rainfall. Low confidence outlook at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – April 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 21-25)

The changeability of New England’s spring weather can be showcased in many ways. Yesterday in speaking with a friend on social media, I noted that one such example of the upcoming swings will be that some locations that reached or exceeded 70 yesterday may see a snow shower Thursday evening with wind chill in the 20s, only to be back near 70 again Saturday. When the first bubblings of the coming summer’s heat start to build in the South, and winter’s lingering cold and snow cover try to hang on in Canada, they often meet somewhere between, and our region is definitely somewhere in between. We live in a meteorological battleground, and while this can be seen numerous times throughout the year, it’s often most vividly displayed in the springtime. And here we are now. This next showcase of variability will be started as a frontal boundary, the one that entered from the west as a cold front that promptly came to a halt over the region and slid back to the north as a warm front, becomes the atmospheric running board for a low pressure wave today. This low will track just northwest of the WHW forecast area, across northern New England. On our side of the boundary resides mild air, for now, and the low pressure areas and the contrast across the front from our mild side to a much colder air mass on the other side, will result in a more widespread ribbon of showery rainfall that will be preceded by isolated rain showers. Once the main shower area gets here it may have a thunderstorm or two embedded in it, but mainly this will just be a gusty rain shower episode later today into this evening. The snow that has been falling across much of the Midwest behind the front is going to head across northern New England, giving the mountains a bit of snow for a little more spring skiing, and while that area will miss our area, the cold air behind the front will not miss. We’ll see a significant temperature tumble from today’s mild readings to air that feels more like February or March on Thursday, which is ironically Earth Day. Not a great day for an Earth Day picnic – sorry! Blustery, chilly, sun to start then lots of clouds. Some of those clouds may even produce a rain or snow shower, favoring the hilly terrain west and north of Boston, by later Thursday. The gusty wind will be the result of the air pressure difference between departing low pressure in eastern Canada and a high pressure area sliding southeastward from the Ohio Valley to the Middle Atlantic States. This high will move across the Middle Atlantic and offshore during Friday and Saturday. During that time we will see the wind relax and shift to the west Friday and southwest Saturday, resulting in a warming trend with dry weather. Another low pressure area will be trekking eastward in a now zonal (west to east) flow pattern, and it’s destined to bring our next shot at much needed rainfall for the second half of the upcoming weekend. More details on this system as we get a little bit closer to the event…

TODAY: Partly sunny through early afternoon with isolated rain showers. Mostly cloudy mid through late afternoon with widespread rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm arriving from west to east. Highs 55-62 South Coast, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH, gusts to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous rain showers evening. Clearing west to east overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds. A rain or snow shower possible mainly hills north and west of Boston by mid to late afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a rain or snow shower early. Lows 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 65-72, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 47-54. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 26-30)

Zonal (west to east) flow pattern starts to transition to blocking again… Drier/breezy/cool April 26 as low pressure departs and high pressure builds toward the region from the west. High pressure may sit over the area for several days thereafter ending April with a dry stretch, temperatures trending milder but coolest along the coast much of the time.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 1-5)

Favoring continued blocking with the region staying mostly dry with near seasonable temperatures, but it won’t take much to completely change this outlook, so it’s low confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – April 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 20-24)

Very pleasant spring days start and end this 5-day forecast period. In between, we have some spring volatility to go through. First, we begin with high pressure centered to the south of New England and a nice mild air mass in place today. But a cold front will be charging eastward trailing from low pressure moving across southeastern Canada. But this front is running out of steam and will be sputtering out as it moves into New England this afternoon and early evening, only bringing us some clouds and the slight chance of a few rain showers into the region, especially northwest of I-95. This frontal boundary will then pull back to the north as a warm front early Wednesday as low pressure forms in the Upper Ohio Valley and western Pennsylvania and then travels northeastward into northern New England. This will bring one more push of mild air into our region Wednesday but with an increased rain shower threat as this frontal boundary gets pulled eastward from this second low pressure area. The front by then will have quite a sharp temperature contrast across it, with snow on the back side. But that snow is destined for northern New England, not the WHW forecast area in southeastern New England. However once the rain showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) cross this area later Wednesday, the cold air behind the front will waste no time getting in here, along with plenty of wind. So as we observe Earth Day on Thursday, we will do so with a cold air mass in place, a gusty wind, and probably sun followed by lots of clouds. I do think rain and snow showers will be confined mostly to the mountains west and north of this area, but can’t rule out one or two wandering into this area later in the day or during the evening. By Friday, the cold relaxes a little as the wind goes more westerly around northern side of high pressure which will be sliding eastward across the Mid Atlantic States. By Saturday, this high will be offshore and we’ll be in a warmer southwesterly air flow with the timing of the next trough slow enough that while we may end up seeing cloudiness moving in, it should stay rain-free, making it quite the nice start to the weekend.

TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. A passing rain shower possible mainly west and north of Boston during the afternoon to early evening. Highs 57-64 South Coast region, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower, mainly southern NH and northern MA early. Lows 41-48 I-95 belt northwestward, 49-54 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W-NW then becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with isolated rain showers through mid afternoon. Mostly cloudy with rain showers and possible thunderstorms arriving west to east later in the day. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers ending west to east. Clearing overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a rain or snow shower. Lows 31-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 25-29)

Expecting mostly zonal (west to east) flow in the large scale pattern… Significant rain event is possible for April 25 due to passing low pressure along with below normal temperatures. Turning mostly dry as high pressure builds in for several days after, a warming temperature trend but very likely cooler at the coast most of those days.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

Pattern may evolve into a blocking set-up again with trough western US, ridge east central US, and trough off the US East Coast. The idea in this pattern would be for cool / dry overall. Not high confidence, but something to watch as several influences still have to be considered.

C-19 Chat Post – April 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)

As we begin another week we find ourselves in a continued active weather pattern. We have milder to warmer air moving into the region today into Tuesday. But it is still cold enough aloft for an unstable atmosphere, and this will be aided further by a small but potent disturbance moving eastward into southern New England later today through this evening, triggering the development of a few showers and possible thunderstorms. Not expecting widespread activity or any severe weather with this though. Tuesday, low pressure moves rapidly eastward across southeastern Canada and sends a cold front toward the region. We’ll warm up nicely ahead of this front, which will barely make it across part of the region before it comes to a halt and is pulled back to the north as a warm front ahead of another approaching low pressure area. This low will also pass north of our area Wednesday, pushing a sharper frontal boundary into and eventually across the region, maybe needing to wait for an additional low pressure wave to form and move along it. This day will bring our best chance of widespread rainfall over the next 5, in the form of a solid band of rain showers ahead of the front, maybe with an embedded thunderstorm. The snow that will be on the back side of this front as it is travelling through NY will be destined for northern New England, not the WHW forecast area. But we will be visited by the cold air behind the front, along with wind, for Wednesday night through Thursday. We may see a decent amount of cloud development Thursday due to even colder air aloft, but right now I’m leaning toward any disturbance passing by to not be enough to produce the rain and snow showers I had previously mentioned, so going with a dry forecast. High pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic States by Friday, so we’ll still be breezy here between it and low pressure in eastern Canada, but not as windy as Thursday, and a little less chilly as well…

TODAY: Partly sunny. A late day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly west of Boston (eastern CT, RI, central MA most likely locations). Highs 54-61 South Coast, 61-68 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early evening. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 57-64 South Coast region, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48 I-95 belt northwesward, 49-54 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W-NW for a while overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny early then becoming mostly cloudy. Numerous showers arriving west to east and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 62-69 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain showers move out, partial clearing follows. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny then mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)

A zonal (west to east moving) weather pattern is expected to be dominant. Iffy on timing of low pressure and a rain chance in the April 24-25 window, leaning toward late April 24 to early April 25 but subject to change. Drier, chilly behind that, then moderating temperatures by later in the period as Canadian high pressure eventually sinks southeastward to the Mid Atlantic.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

Idea for now is that a zonal pattern will continue, but again we’ll need to watch for rapid reconfiguration of the pattern including the possibility of a return to blocking. Will monitor for the interaction of the former western Pacific typhoon energy with the jet stream heading into North America.

C-19 Chat Post – April 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)

It’s been a “slow improvement” weekend as we were expecting, and today will definitely be better than yesterday, but don’t expect full sunshine. With cold air aloft and yet another disturbance to pass by, we’ll still see lots of clouds at times, and possibly another passing rain shower or two. But overall, not a bad mid April day in comparison to the last couple of days. Still on track for the early-week warming but there are a couple of forecast wrinkles to deal with today. First, a small but vigorous disturbance which I hadn’t sniffed out as of yesterday’s update reveals itself to be a shower and thunderstorm threat late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening as it works on some moisture and instability in the region. This small feature will be moving fairly quickly eastward and has the ability to trigger a shower or storm in a few locations especially near and south of I-90, favoring eastern CT, RI, and adjacent southern MA, late in the day Monday. And then a low pressure area moving rapidly eastward across southeastern Canada will send a cold front toward the region Tuesday. It will still be mild ahead of this front, but I’m not quite sure yet how far east that boundary comes. So the mild day may be replaced by a chilly evening or nighttime for areas at least north and west of Boston. We’ll have to monitor that front. I do think that any rain shower activity with that initial front will stay to the north of us. Stronger low pressure trailing this one moves eastward and its center will also pass north of us by Wednesday evening, but this time there will be more moisture available, so I’m expecting a decent round of rain showers sometime Wednesday between the middle of the day and the evening. This day will still be mild ahead of the cold front, but a sharp temperature drop is likely to occur with the passage of that front, setting us up for a blustery and chilly Earth Day on Thursday, possibly with lots of cloudiness on the back side of what will then be pretty strong low pressure in eastern Canada. We may even see some scattered rain and/or snow showers on that day…

TODAY: Variably cloudy – times with more sun, times with more cloudiness. Chance of a passing rain shower but dry conditions most areas most of day. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A late day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly southwest of Boston (eastern CT, RI, south central MA most likely locations). Highs 54-61 South Coast, 61-68 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early evening mainly southwest and south of Boston. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 57-64 South Coast region, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48 northwest of Boston, 49-54 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may shift to NW north and west of Boston.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers arriving from west to east during the day. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain showers move out, partial clearing follows. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny then mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and/or snow showers. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)

A zonal (west to east moving) weather pattern is expected to be dominant, but with the mean trough position being in eastern Canada and the Great Lakes to northeastern US with the tendency for temperatures below normal. Best chance of wet weather comes from a disturbance about April 24.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

The idea is for a similar pattern to continue, mostly west to east flow, but we do have to watch for rapid evolution of blocking pattern at any time. For now, overall idea is below normal temperatures and drier than average. Added pattern volatility potential from the interaction of a former western Pacific typhoon as its post-tropical remains interact with the jet stream heading into North America.

C-19 Chat Post – April 18 2021

COMMENTARY

My brother was a mixture of frustrated and amused when relaying the story to my mother yesterday, who then relayed it to me. What story? Oh, it’s about something that happens far too often. In this case it was a couple of Boston sports radio hosts having basically an on air melt-down. Did the Bruins lose a game they should have won? No. Did the Red Sox lose one game after a nine game winning streak? No. We all know that would be enough to cause a freak-out in sports radio hosts, but no, that was not it. Did they disagree with a move made by the Patriots? No. Do they think we need more coverage of the World Ping Pong championships? That would be cool, in my opinion, but no, it was not that. In fact, it had nothing at all to do with sports. Then what on earth were they going nuts about? It wasn’t anything really on earth, but what was falling TO earth, from the sky, or more specifically, from the clouds. Snow. In April. Wait, WHAT? SNOW? IN APRIL? How can that be?! It’s SPRINGTIME. It doesn’t snow in the spring here! I mean it’s supposed to be sunny and warm day after day after day with multitudes of flowers, chirping birds, and a gentle breeze that just makes you want to grab a picnic blanket and spread it out in the field. (Just remember to check for ticks after.) I didn’t hear it myself, but the sports radio host overreaction was common across our area yesterday. It was snowing, in mid April, in New England – SOUTHERN New England even! I mean that’s never happened in April before, has it? Not if you don’t count last year’s minor snowfall over interior southern New England on the SAME date last year, followed immediately by a snowfall ranging from about 1 to 6 inches on April 17 & 18, yup, LAST YEAR too. And as long as you don’t count the multitudes of times it’s snowed in Aprils previous, maybe because it’s actually kind of a normal thing here in the northeastern US. But how does that seem to be a forgotten thing by so many year after year after year? I’ve never understood it, nor will I. Even Boston’s Logan Airport, where “official” records for the city are gathered, sitting right out there in the water, averages 1.9 inch of snow in April, nearly 2 inches. Now this doesn’t mean nearly 2 inches of snow falls there every April. There are plenty of Aprils that this location does not see any measurable snowfall. However, they have seen measurable in 6 out of the last 9 Aprils. A little stat searching and logic will tell you that the average is influenced by a couple of stand-out April events during the 30 year period used to calculate the average, most obviously their dumping of 25.4 inches on April 1-2 1997 during the “April Fools Blizzard”, and a significant storm of 6.9 inches during a snowy April in 1996. But even without these, the fact that 2/3 of the time in the last 9 years they have had measurable snow in the month of April at the airport should tell you that April snow is NOT uncommon at all. Obviously it’s not as common as snowfall in January or February, or even March, but let’s be realistic here, those are winter months. Of course it’s going to snow more frequently. It just needs to be understood that because we change seasons to spring, it doesn’t mean that snow suddenly can’t exist anymore. And most of the time in the city (especially at the airport) they are minor events. In case you are wondering if Boston has seen any other major snowstorms besides the 2 mentioned above, they have. On April 6-7 1893, they saw 7.9 inches, on April 9-10 1917, 9.1 inches fell, and a remarkable “fluffy” snowstorm of 13.3 inches occurred on April 6-7 1982, with temperatures never getting above the 20s during and for about 24 hours after the event. So yes, the “big” April ones may be somewhat rare, but snow in April is not rare at all. So let’s take this somewhere else now. My journey through social media and my in-person day yesterday was punctuated with dozens of declarations of anger, disbelief, and borderline despair, about snow. In April. Wait what?! SNOW? Ok I won’t go through that again – you get the gist of it all by now. I’m not telling anybody that they have to enjoy snow. We all have our likes and dislikes, even about things we have absolutely no control over, like weather. I realize I am a bit of an odd duck because I don’t have any weather I dislike. But that aside, let’s take a look at some positives about this latest round of “winter in spring” a.k.a. April snow. I realize that as much as 6 to 11 inches fell in the highest elevations of central Massachusetts and nearby New Hampshire, and that definitely required some removal (shoveling, plowing, etc.), but we were lucky here since trees are not leafed out yet, so while some of the older trees & their limbs did suffer some damage, we avoided widespread damage and resultant power outages. For the vast majority of the region, including metro areas of Boston & Providence, it was a snowfall that would quickly remove itself after falling, as the combination of warmer ground and higher sun angle (even through the clouds) would help the melting process. What else good? Plenty… Temperatures stayed above freezing overnight even though rain & some additional mix/snow fell, so we did not have to deal with a freeze-up. Hey, that’s a plus! And you may or may not have heard me mention that much of the area is running a 4 to 6 inch precipitation deficit just since the start of 2021, and that abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions were covering pretty much all of New England. This storm system delivered generally 1 to 2 1/2 inches of beneficial total precipitation, maybe not enough to wipe out the deficit, but certainly taking a nice bite out of it. The portion that fell as snow ends up even more beneficial. As it melts into the unfrozen ground it fell on, it’s nicely absorbed, effectively acting as a longer lasting beneficial rainfall. Snow is also somewhat of a stimulant for new blooms on trees and in gardens, and will give the trees a boost for leaf out. As somebody who grew up with allergies, I know there’s a down side to this time of year: tree pollen. That’s inevitable, and just something we have to deal with. But wait, as a bonus for getting through this entire commentary, I remind you that yesterday’s rain and snow cleansed the air of pollen! So that will give allergy sufferers a break too, at least for a day and a half. But that’s better than no break at all, isn’t it? Enjoy the weekend! Stay safe!

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 17-21)

Our April storm that brought rain & snow to the region yesterday is still swirling about offshore to the east of New England this morning, and will take its time moving away from the region during this weekend. And while today will still be wet at times with rain showers and drizzle spiraling back at us from the offshore low, we will see improvement for Sunday. Although as previously mentioned we still have a bit of a disturbance to come through, so don’t expect complete clearing and we will still carry the chance of a passing shower. So not the best weekend, but certainly not the worst. Looking for a warm-up? It’s coming for the beginning of the week when we get into a southwesterly air flow aloft. First, a warm front has to sneak through the region, and it will do so early Monday with some cloudiness, though I think any rain associated with the front should stay to the north. Once that gets by it’s going to be quite nice right through Tuesday. There are locations that received enough snow to shovel yesterday that may break 70 degrees on Tuesday. Once again, that’s spring in New England. And staying on that topic, you know not to get used to that warm up, right? Good! Because a strong cold front is going to approach and cross the region Wednesday, bringing our next chance of wet weather in the form of rain showers, maybe even a thunderstorm risk. And while the day is likely to be mild, depending on the front’s timing, it may be feeling quite a bit colder by that night…

TODAY: Cloudy morning with occasional drizzle and some rain showers, especially NH Seacoast and eastern MA. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds morning. More sun afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 57-64 South Coast region, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers arriving from west to east during the day. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 22-26)

Windy, colder for Earth Day April 22 and a disturbance may bring rain and/or snow showers. Cool, less windy, but dry April 23. Low pressure brings a rain chance at mid period followed by drying but cooler again late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

For now looking at a west to east (zonal) flow pattern with a tendency for a trough in the Northeast and keeping us on the cooler but mostly dry side. However some added pattern volatility may come from the interaction of a powerful Western Pacific typhoon as it re-curves and enters the northern hemisphere jet stream. For the record, this is not unusual – it just doesn’t happen all that frequently.

C-19 Chat Post – April 17 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)

Our first significant storm in a while is in progress, and despite the fact that snow grabbed the headlines in most media, even though it is fairly confined to expected areas and seems to be following expecting accumulations, the biggest story with this system is the beneficial precipitation it is bringing, since essentially all of southeastern New England had been categorized in abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions as of the last update. So this will knock that back significantly, though we still need more precipitation to further deplete the deficit. We’ll see how that goes as we move into later April. But for now, it’s this system we have to deal with. And today, low pressure will do a cyclonic loop right over southeastern New England as it is captured by upper level low pressure tracking slowly eastward across there region. The stacked system, which you can visualize as an atmospheric un-stretched slinky, will then drift away tonight and Saturday. It’ll take a good amount of time for it to pull its moisture out of here, and even longer for us to be rid of its cloudiness, but it will happen eventually. Sunday, we’ll be in a westerly flow of slightly milder and mostly dry air, but a weak disturbance will still bring some cloudiness and a slight rain shower chance. For now I’m keeping that shower chance out of Monday’s forecast, a day which will be milder still. And finally the warmest day of the next five will be Tuesday, when we’re in a southwesterly air flow ahead of an approach trough, a day that I think will be dry as the next frontal system and associated moisture will still be far enough west to not impact this area.

TODAY: Cloudy with snow/mix inland areas especially higher elevations, rain most coastal areas possibly mixing with or turning to wet snow at times, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 3-6 inches in highest elevations of southwestern NH to around the MA border, 1-3 inches on mainly unpaved surfaces mostly west of to around I-495, and slushy coatings to an inch possible as far east as the I-95 region mostly from I-90 northward. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast region, 64-71 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)

A strong cold front is expected to move across the region from west to east April 21 which will itself be mild with rain showers, followed by much cooler but dry weather April 22-23. Moderating temperatures but rain chances go up again later in the period based on expecting timing of the next area of low pressure from the west in what will be a more zonal (west to east flow) pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)

Continuing a zonal pattern idea but with a mean trough in eastern Canada and the northeastern US opening the door for some additional shots of chilly air. Overall pattern may trend drier again.

C-19 Chat Post – April 16 2021