DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 15-19)

All week we’ve been eyeing the possibility of some mid April snowflakes. Nothing new for us at this time of year. In fact, just last year on April 17-18 there was a storm system that produced measurable snow right to the coast and a general 1-3 inches across much of eastern MA and 3-6 inches in higher elevations of RI and central MA. These systems happen. They are not easy to forecast since quite often the rain vs. snow can be and often is even more needle-threading than a winter system to nail down in terms of a forecast. But I have not over analyzed this one. Here’s my best shot. In general, we will be seeing low pressure moving eastward off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast later today and intensifying as it is captured by its upper low pressure partner pulling it northeastward and making it do a bit of a cyclone loop. This system will be at its maximum intensity as it is making its closest pass. The various computer guidance, as is typical, display some differences but in general most of them bring the low center right in over southeastern New England while it does its loop. One model (the NAM) has been forecasting this loop to be a little further southeast, offshore or barely to Cape Cod, on its last couple runs, and the result has been its snowfall forecast has been to bring the rain/snow line further east, producing more snow into eastern MA than is depicted by other guidance. A springtime setup like this can be one that produces substantial amounts of snowfall in higher elevation while just a few miles away you see all rain. Snowfall can occur in lower elevations if you keep the warmest air away, which could happen with a low center a little further offshore. So you see the forecasting dilemma. Believe the outlier model that has pretty much no support from any other model, or lean toward the solution shown by pretty much all other available guidance? For now, this forecast will look similar to yesterday’s with added detail since the event starts soon. I’m not biting on the dramatic solution the NAM offers. But as there have been times that it, as an outlier, has been correct, it’s obviously wise to monitor closely. Does it do this again on its next run? Does it come back to the other models’ ideas? Or do they join it? It plays out like a meteorological soap opera! Stay tuned……….. Whatever happens with precipitation details, the heaviest of it ends Friday morning and as the low matures (“fills”, or “stacks”, basically becoming vertical low pressure tube underneath and with its upper low), it will start to pull away but will still be close enough to keep Friday overcast with occasional rain/mix/snow eventually tapering to drizzle before ending. This process may take until early Saturday to be completed, and with the low still offshore, Saturday will be day with a gusty breeze and a fair amount of cloudiness before enough dry air works in for more sun later. The Sunday-Monday outlook is still OK, but high pressure’s center is likely to be a little further southwest, which allows it to turn milder, but also leaves the door open for a couple low pressure troughs to move along in a more zonal (west to east) flow, so we would have at least some cloudiness around at times, and possibly a couple shower chances as these disturbances pass by.

TODAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving in central MA & RI mid to late afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times, changing to snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH, central MA, and mixing with or changing to snow in higher elevations of northern RI where some accumulation is possible. Rain may mix with or change to snow eastward toward the I-95 belt toward dawn. Lows 34-41. Wind E 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix inland areas, rain/mix coastal areas, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 3-6 inches in highest elevations of southwestern NH to around the MA border, 1-3 inches on mainly unpaved surfaces to about I-495 and mostly near and north of I-90, and less than 1 inch as far east as the I-95 region from I-90 northward. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 20-24)

A shot of warmer air to start the period but an approaching trough from the west likely means a chance of rain showers to go along with that. Cooler air follows that as the shower threat gives way to fair weather for the middle of the period. Approaching low pressure may bring a rain chance late period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 25-29)

Unsettled weather threats most likely early and again late in this period with fair weather in between. Temperatures near to possibly below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)

A weak area of high pressure provides a decent mid April day today before things go downhill. However, this downhill slide provides us with the best chance for widespread beneficial precipitation for a while, and we need that. It also brings the chance of some very late season (nearly post season) snowflakes for some areas. It all takes place as low pressure moving eastward from the Midwest redevelops south of New England Thursday night into Friday and matures rapidly. The upper level low pressure system associated with this system will contain plenty of cold air aloft and will be moving right across our area. This is a springtime set-up in which the cold air above can be drawn to the surface by the falling precipitation, which begins as rain everywhere. We’ll see a change over to snow at least in the higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA, possibly northern RI. How far east and how low in elevation this at least mix and possible change can occur is still a little fuzzy and something we’ll have to watch closely as the system evolves. As it stands now, this should be a system that brings steadiest precipitation from mid evening Thursday to mid morning Friday, with the greatest chance of accumulating snow occurring west of the I-95 belt and north of I-90 during the darkness of the early morning of Friday. This system will also produce some gusty wind from the east during the time its producing its heaviest precipitation, which will then switch to north as it stacks with its upper level low and gradually pulls away during Friday. By Saturday, this system will be far enough away that we’re dry again, other than the chance of some lingering low level moisture enough for some drizzle/showers near the coast in the early morning, and perhaps a pop up shower during the day as a considerable amount of cloudiness will be present. A small area of high pressure will have arrived by Sunday which will make the “pick-of-the-weekend” for outdoor activity an easy one…

TODAY: Most clouds early to mid morning southwestern NH, central MA, and RI, with more sun to the east. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy all areas this afternoon. Highs 54-61 coast, 62-69 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving in central MA and RI by late in the day. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, possibly heavy at times, changing to snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH, central MA, and mixing with or changing to snow in higher elevations of northern RI where some accumulation is possible. Rain may mix with snow eastward toward the I-95 belt overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix/rain inland areas, rain coastal areas, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)

An area of high pressure slides offshore with fair, mild weather April 19. Next trough of low pressure moves in from the west with some unsettled weather April 20-21 before fair weather returns later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-28)

Unsettled weather threats most likely early and again late in this period with fair weather in between. Temperatures near to possibly below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – April 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)

Low pressure to our east drifts away today but we’ll still be in a northeasterly air flow behind it with a gusty breeze at times. A weak ridge of high pressure moves over the region Wednesday which will be a decent day with less wind and feeling a bit milder than today will. The next low pressure system approaches from the southwest later Thursday and likely has a more significant impact on our area than the last few have. This is good news, as it looks like it may deliver a batch of significant and beneficial precipitation, mostly in the form of rain. But, the air above us is going to be quite cold for mid April and we may see some mix/snow in higher elevations of interior southern New England. There is some chance that flakes occur even at lower elevations close to the coast if the set-up is just right. It’s hard to forecast such an occurrence more than a couple days in advance, so it will have to be monitored. This system should be slowly pulling away from the region by Saturday, which will likely be a blustery and cool spring day with limited sun, and may even start wet in some areas, depending on how fast the storm system exits.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible near the South Coast in the afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain to the north. Areas of fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow some interior higher elevations late day or evening. Temperatures steady 38-45 to start, then may fall slowly. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, some mix/snow interior higher elevations and possibly a few lower elevations and coastal areas, tapering off and ending. Lows 32-39. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)

High pressure builds in with fair, milder weather for April 18-19. A trough may bring some unsettled weather April 20-21 before fair weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-27)

Next wet weather threat times for the middle of this period which should feature a more zonal (west to east) pattern. Still have to keep this a vague, low confidence forecast at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – April 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)

It’s mid April, and this week’s weather will very typical of its time. Four out of the next five days will fit into the unsettled category, and you may as well root for rain, because we need it. But will anybody see April snowflakes? The answer: Maybe. We’ll get to that. First, we’ll deal with unsettled period number 1, today and Tuesday, which will largely be a cloud-fest and not so much a rain kind of thing. Yes there is a weakening band of rain stretching from the southwest corner of NH and northwestern MA into the Worcester MA area as of sunrise this morning, but that area won’t do a whole lot other than sit in place and rain itself out as its obliterated by mid level dry air. And speaking of sunrise, early-rises were greeted to a spectacular show of color and clouds in the sky in east central and northeastern MA as well as across much of southern NH. This was able to happen as enough dry air above kept the clouds fairly thin to the northeast and east, while enough dry air got in at low levels to allow the deck of stratus clouds to clear out. But the clouds will dominate today, and some lower clouds are likely to return at least in variable form as the air flow continues to come off the Atlantic. A little more dry air may get into the mix tonight to break those clouds up at least partially once again, but in general the cloudiness will dominate through Tuesday, along with very limited rain chances and perhaps enough low level moisture for a few drizzle pockets closer to eastern coastal areas. The upper level low and its associated southward-squashed surface low will finally pull away by Wednesday, when a weak ridge of high pressure builds in for what I’ll call “the weak pick of the week” – probably not a spectacular day, but likely better than the 2 that came before it and the 2 that will come after it. That’s because another upper low will drift its way eastward to the East Coast by later Thursday and Friday. The center of this upper low is likely to pass just to the south of New England during Friday and Friday night, and associated surface low pressure should be able to get closer to New England than did its predecessor, so we stand a better chance at seeing some beneficial precipitation. Precipitation? That means rain, right? Yes, mainly so. But the air with that upper level low is going to be quite cold above us, and some of our fairly reliable guidance has indicated that it will be cold enough for some mixed precipitation or even a turn to snow, especially in higher elevations of interior southern New England, by later Friday. Whether this happens or not, and if it happens whether or not there is any accumulation can’t really be determined yet, but the possibility is definitely there, and something I’ll be monitoring as we go through the week. So many areas reach the middle to upper 70s this past Saturday and just 6 days later some of them could see snowflakes? Yes, and that shouldn’t surprise you. It may represent a contrast of weather, but that’s exactly “normal” for springtime here in New England.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy light rain north central MA and southern NH mainly early morning. A slight chance of light rain eastern CT and RI. Patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal areas mainly during the afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain mostly well southwest of Boston. Chance of drizzle mainly eastern coastal areas through midday. Highs 47-54. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible near the South Coast in the afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain to the north. Areas of fog forming. Lows 38-45. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow some interior higher elevations late day or evening. Temperatures steady 38-45 to start, then may fall slowly. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)

If all goes as expected, we’ll be on the back side of departing low pressure to start the third weekend of April with Saturday (17th) being a breezy, cool, sun/cloud kind of day, although eastern coastal areas may be stubborn to improve at first if enough northeast wind and wrap-around moisture lingers behind that system. High pressure is expected to build in for April 18-19 with fair weather and a warming trend but coastal sea breezes of course. A low pressure system from the west may bring some unsettled weather around April 20 possibly into April 21 before departing to the east as we transition to a quicker-flowing zonal (west to east) weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)

Indications / trends for a more zonal pattern, but only low confidence in this due to questionable guidance and the knowledge that a block can form easily in the spring. For now will go with dry weather to start and end this period with a wet weather threat in between.

C-19 Chat Post – April 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 11-15)

When my forecast works out, as my self-expectation is that it should daily, my practice is not to point that out, but I do like to point out things that I missed in a forecast. Yesterday, I was torn on whether or not to put the risk of a pop-up shower from the “heat of the day” (in a relative sense) and ahead of an approaching back-door front. I saw that 2 fairly reliable pieces of short range guidance had forecast these pop ups across central Maine and parts of NH, and I thought about adding a pop up possibility to at least southern NH, but opted to leave it out of the written forecast thinking it was the longest of long shots there. Alas, a decent cluster of moderate to even briefly heavy showers popped up over south central NH and made their way into northeastern MA during the late afternoon and evening Saturday. Certainly not a huge forecast buster, but I’m shore that a few folks’ had a surprise on their evening walks, but at least may have been treated to a rainbow after getting unexpectedly wet. Sometimes a forecaster can worry about putting too much in a day’s forecast, but yesterday when doing a regional forecast it would have been accurate to talk about South Coast low clouds and fog, clouds giving way to sun in the major metro areas, a lot of areas getting well into the 70s, a sea breeze still making an appearance for a while along the eastern shore before giving up again late in the day, and the above-mentioned pop up shower cluster. I didn’t have the last 2 on that list in my forecast, but I should have. Ah well – time to move on! During the early morning hours, the aforementioned back-door cold front did slide across the region and while it was not accompanied by a lot of wind or any precipitation, it did introduce a deck of stratus clouds from the northeast, and a notable temperature drop (Logan Airport, for example, from 58 at 3 a.m. to 49 at 4 a.m., now down a bit more to 48 as of 7 a.m.). The temperature drop was a bit more subtle over inland areas as the front got there a little bit later (some areas are still in the middle to upper 50s as of this blog writing). But by late morning all of the region will be in the marine air mass, generally covered in stratus clouds. There was already a deck of stratus and areas of fog back along the South Coast where the wind was still from the southwest before the front’s arrival since last evening, so they had their marine layer there, just from a different direction, now to mix with the new marine layer from the northeast. While this is going on down here at the surface, another arm of moisture from decaying low pressure to our west is moving into the region from the southwest, and its rain area has struggled to make any significant progress. And while still a decent area of rain, it sits still southwest of New York City early this morning, but will make progress toward and into New England from southwest to northeast, so that by the time it gets into the WHW forecast area during the afternoon and evening it will be in the form of patches of mainly light rain. That’s a shame, honestly, because we could really use a decent rainfall. And even though this low pressure area is going to take 2 1/2 days to pass by our area (center passing to the south of here) and we will be in its circulation, it’s really not going to manage to produce any beneficial rainfall, just lots of clouds, cool temperatures, and some damp weather. We may get a sneaky milder day in about Wednesday as we find ourselves with a small ridge of high pressure sliding across the region and offshore between departing low pressure and the approach of another low from the southwest. By Thursday, we may already be back in the envelope of clouds from this approaching low along with a southeasterly air flow.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog South Coast mainly during this morning. Areas of fog and drizzle developing East Coast mainly during this afternoon. Chance of light rain mid to late afternoon, favoring areas south and west of Boston. Coastal temperatures fall slightly to 45-52. Inland temperatures 50-57 early fall to 45-52 during the day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 42-49. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Periods of rain possible. Highs 47-54, coolest coastal areas. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle possible near the East Coast. Highs 47-54. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 16-20)

Slow eastward progression of large scale pattern. While guidance can lead one astray beyond a few days, the current expectation based on a combo of guidance and pattern anticipation leads to a forecast of cloudy/damp/cool weather for April 16 with and east to northeast wind as low pressure passes to the south, but it remains to be seen if we’ll have any significant rainfall. It may even be cold enough for some mixed precipitation and or snowflakes in parts of the region. This low should exit with a drier/cool northerly air flow by April 17. As high pressure ridging nudges eastward we should end up milder/dry for April 18-19 before the next low from the west brings at least clouds back by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 21-25)

Still not putting much faith in guidance beyond general pattern ideas out this far into the future. Early idea: Dry start, then some wet weather chances. No temperature extremes.

C-19 Chat Post – April 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 10-14)

I’m not sure if you’ve been keeping track, but this is going to be the 5th consecutive “nice weather” Saturday. Two caveats to start the day though: 1) Low level moisture is causing some fog and low clouds near the South Coast which may take some time to break and dissipate. 2) A band of cloudiness from mid level moisture is rolling across eastern MA and south central NH as of 7:45 a.m. and has even had a few sprinkles of rain falling from it. This band of clouds will thin and break with time, but other patches of clouds will be around today, so don’t expect 100% sun. Despite that, it’s going to be even warmer today in some areas I anticipated would be cooler (eastern coastal areas, for example). You can thank the break-down, or weakening, of an “omega block” that has been responsible for several days of really nice spring weather here (though it has down sides: high pollen count, high fire danger, and lowering water supply). Today, everybody gets into a southwesterly air flow a little stronger than I had previously expected as high pressure sinks to the south, so other than the cooling influence in coastal areas where a southwest wind travels over water first, it’s going to be a rather warm day for mid April, with many areas reaching or exceeding 70. Enjoy it if you can, but don’t get used to it! One of our famed “back-door” cold fronts is on the way, and will charge across the region from northeast to southwest during the early hours of Sunday, introducing a northeast to east wind and much cooler marine air, complete with low clouds and eventually areas of fog and drizzle. Some areas that are in the lower 70s this afternoon will find themselves around 25 degrees cooler, in the upper 40s tomorrow afternoon. While this is going on regionally, the larger scale pattern shift will allow low pressure that has been stuck to our west to finally move eastward, kind of. It’s not going to charge in here because it’s still being met with resistance from the high pressure ridge that is moving slowly to the east off the East Coast, and the trough’s surface low will be trying to send lobes of moisture eastward that run into dry air. One such lobe will bring an area of rain into the region on Sunday, but as it advances in it will also be falling apart, so while some areas may see rain from it, other areas may not see a drop from that and are more likely to get wet from the drizzle caused by the air flow from the ocean. Either way, plan on Sunday being far different weatherwise than today is, which is certainly the pick of the weekend for outdoor activity! Looking ahead to the first part of next week, back to more of springtime reality for the Northeast as a large upper low, once the western portion of the omega block, swirls over and just south of the region. While this low is not loaded with moisture, it is likely to keep us on the cooler and somewhat cloudier side for several days. Unfortunately it does not look like it will generate much in the way of rainfall, which we could use.

TODAY: Fog/stratus South Coast into mid morning, variable clouds elsewhere with a possible sprinkle of rain eastern MA into mid morning. Sun/cloud mix midday-afternoon. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 66-73 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to NE 5-15 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Chance of light rain in the afternoon. Temperatures generally steady 45-52. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 40-47. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Periods of rain possible. Highs 47-54, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 15-19)

Upper level pattern crawls eastward, starting out with low pressure near and just east of the region and our region in a coolish and slightly unsettled pattern. Eventually ridging pushes eastward and we may warm up (still cooler coast) by the end of the period. No significant precipitation in sight.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 20-24)

I’m not crazy about the medium range guidance timing of large scale features. Based on this my current idea is to slow everything down from what is shown on guidance. This would keep us mostly dry into late April finally with a rain chance increasing later in the period. Low confidence on this outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – April 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13)

Blocking continues and keeps high pressure in place through Saturday, then weakens and allows low pressure to run at the region from the southwest later in the weekend into early next week, but enough high pressure remains in eastern Canada to try to force this series of lows to the south as well as resulting in them running into dry air. To get any rain we need to rely on enough dynamics from the lows surviving, then maybe adding some drizzle to the mix via low level moisture from an eastern air flow off the Atlantic. This basically results in unsettled but not total wash-out weather Sunday into early next week. I’ll repeat here what I said in yesterday’s discussion: Any rain we can get will be welcomed as we are running a precipitation deficit of a few to several inches for the year-to-date with the latest U.S. Drought Monitor reporting abnormal dryness across most of southeastern New England, and of course the continued high fire danger.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 63-70 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground for forming. Lows 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64 coast, 65-72 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog developing. Chance of rain. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland morning, then falling. Wind SE to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH eastern coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 40-47. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Periods of rain possible. Highs 48-55, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 40-47. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of coastal drizzle and patchy fog. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 14-18)

Look for renewed blocking, this time with low pressure generally near or just off the East Coast, an often easterly to northerly air flow here with episodes of unsettled weather but no widespread soaking rainfall. Temperatures while on the cooler side will average closer to normal due to nights that aren’t that chilly but days that aren’t that mild.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 19-23)

Indications for a nudge eastward of features and high pressure moving over this area which would result in mostly dry weather, cool nights, cool coast & warm inland days. Confidence remains low on the forecast this far out.

C-19 Chat Post – April 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 8-12)

A moderate to strong blocking pattern will keep a ridge of high pressure parked over our area for the next 3 days, resulting in nice spring weather. With a general light northerly to variable air flow, expect daily sea breezes and cooler conditions in coastal areas while inland locations see a slow daily warming trend. By Sunday and Monday, the block will have weakened enough to allow features to move from west to east once again, but this means the first of a series of low pressure areas will begin to impact the region on Sunday when rain chances increase. How much rain is able to get into the region Sunday will depend on how much dry air there is to battle. While I’m not seeing anything that resembles a heavy rain event, I do expect it to be rather overcast and damp with some rain Sunday into Monday. Any rain we can get will be welcomed as we are running a precipitation deficit of a few to several inches for the year-to-date, are teetering on the edge of a drought again, and continue to see high fire danger with dry ground and the area still pre-leafout.

TODAY: Variably cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 50-57 coast, 58-65 inland. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes by noon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 52-59 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation ground for forming. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 63-70 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog developing. Chance of rain. Highs 48-55 coast, 56-63 inland. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain possible. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Periods of rain possible. Highs 48-55, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 13-17)

What was once the western trough of an omega block will likely become the eastern trough of a newly formed omega block during this period and will be over or just east off the East Coast during this period. For us this means no big warm ups but also not that cold, and somewhat unsettled weather, but more in the form of occasional showers with spokes of energy rotating about the larger upper level system.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 18-22)

Only very little change to the overall pattern at most, with possibly a slow eastward drift to the overall set-up again, which may put our area back under a high pressure ridge with more dry weather, cool nights, cool coast & warm inland days. Confidence remains low on the forecast this far out.