C-19 Chat Post – May 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)

Low pressure well offshore southeast of New England and an upper level disturbance sliding east southeastward across New England today into this evening will provide lots of clouds but very limited rainfall, amounting only to the few showers that can survive into the region from the west or develop in marginally unstable conditions later today into this evening. High pressure moves in and provides nice weather for Sunday – Mother’s Day, but high cloudiness will be streaming in rather quickly during the afternoon ahead of the next area of low pressure. This low is going to be on the weak side and rather quick-moving, with a shot of light rainfall for Sunday night into Monday morning before it departs oceanward. There will still be some upper level energy and cold air aloft hanging around through Tuesday, so lots of clouds may linger Monday even as drier air moves in. The core of upper level cold will be moving across the region during Tuesday. Lots of clouds are expected that day and any sunshine that does occur will just help initiate more cloud development, and possibly lead to a few pop-up rain showers. This, combined with a gusty northwesterly breeze at the surface will make for a rather chilly feel. This will ease a bit Wednesday but with still some cold air aloft we will see additional fair weather cloud development, though likely less extensive as the day before.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers, favoring areas west and south of Boston in the afternoon and southern NH through eastern MA and RI by evening. Highs 53-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds and a few possible rain showers early, then gradual clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH morning, variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain ending from west to east during the morning. Clouds break for partial sun afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then a cloud/sun mix. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

An area of high pressure is expected to bring fair weather for the middle of next week. Not biting on current model solutions of a low pressure area bringing rain about May 14, but leaning toward a weaker system bringing a chance of rain showers around May 15. Fair weather and a potential warm-up after that if high pressure is stronger toward the Middle Atlantic region, which may be the case.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

There’s a lot of uncertainty in this forecast. It will depend on whether or not the warm-up occurs in the latter portion of the 6-10 day forecast period. If so, there may be a period of unsettled weather as another cool air mass arrives from Canada by the middle or end of the period. Timing and details will be impossible to figure out this far in advance. Just know that there is the potential for some volatility and a more drastic temperature change than I had previously indicated.

C-19 Chat Post – May 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

The latest US Drought Monitor release on Thursday indicated that conditions have improved somewhat, and that southeastern New England, while largely running abnormally dry due to a precipitation deficit (year-to-date) of up to a few inches, also has a large portion of eastern and southeastern MA with “normal” conditions at this time. Most of the drought is now confined to areas to the north and west. This is the result of a series of beneficial rain events since April. Will that trend continue? It’s hard to say for sure, but recent trends point to us sliding back into a drier regime. We’ll be in between systems today as low pressure evolves too far offshore for direct impact and an upper level low pressure area hangs back to our west. That upper low will come across the region Saturday with lots of clouds and a few rain showers around, but definitely nothing close to a rainy day. A small area of high pressure will cross the region with nice weather for a good portion of Sunday, but clouds will already be racing in ahead of the next low pressure system, which as very flat and progressive system will move through Sunday night and the first part of Monday, when we have our best chance at a light to borderline moderate rainfall. After this system exist, a dry and cooler air mass arrives during Monday into Tuesday with a northwesterly wind flow. Some cold air aloft may trigger cloud development and possibly a few pop up rain showers on Tuesday.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 39-46. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring areas west and south of Boston in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH morning, variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain ending from west to east during the morning. Clouds break for sun afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

While model guidance indicates possible rainfall from low pressure passing south of the region May 14-15, this system may end up further south than currently shown by guidance. This should be a mostly dry and cool period for southeastern New England, but will watch to see what that system does.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

For now not making any significant changes to the forecast of continued west-to-east movement, limited rainfall, and near to below normal temperatures, but there are a few signs that the overall movement of systems may start to slow as we go through the period, and if so, the location of features will have implications on the specific weather here. Fancy way of saying there is still plenty of uncertainty in the medium range.

C-19 Chat Post – May 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

It’s a good thing we’ve had a handful of beneficial rainfall events recently. The trend is now back toward drier weather in the medium to long term. This will show even during the next 5 days when a system that initially looked promising for delivering more beneficial rainfall will fail to do so. After high pressure provides us with the nicest day of the week so far today, low pressure will develop south of New England on Friday, but another disturbance to its west which was forecast by much of the guidance to grab it and help it strengthen into a stronger storm, much closer, and much more rain-producing for here, is not going to do the grab and the low to the south will “get away” to the southeast, only grazing the area with clouds and some east to northeast wind later Friday, while the area that was to the west of it gets pulled southeastward and may clip our region with a few rain showers later Saturday. That is how your “storm” turns out. High pressure builds across the area with fair weather expected Sunday. A faster-moving low pressure area makes a run at the region late Sunday night into Monday with a risk for some rainfall, but that does not look like a strong system.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring Cape Cod overnight. Lows 44-51. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers eastern coastal areas early. Chance of rain showers later in the day mainly west and south of Boston. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a possible rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

High pressure should be in control of the weather for most of this period. We’ll have to watch for low pressure to the south again later in the period which may very well stay to the south and miss the region. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

No changes to the overall outlook of a generally zonal or west-to-east large scale pattern with minor systems bringing a couple of rain shower threats and variable temperatures averaging near to slightly below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – May 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

Another low pressure system moving across the Northeast will give us another day of unsettled weather today. A couple more waves of showers are to come through the region before drier air finally works in tonight. High pressure builds in for a nice day Thursday. We’re still watching the evolution of a low pressure system for Friday and Saturday, but as has been the trend on guidance as we’ve gotten closer, this system is going to develop to the south and stay mostly offshore, not merging with another piece of energy to its northwest. We’ll experience more fringe effects from that storm than anything direct, getting into an easterly air flow north of it on Friday, which will then shift to northerly on Saturday. At most, its rainfall area may get into coastal southeastern New England sometime Friday night or Saturday morning. It does look like we’ll get that nice day under an area of high pressure on Sunday, but will keep an eye on that as well as sometimes when one low ends up further offshore the next one sneaks in more quickly. So, optimistic for Sunday, but no guarantees at this point.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with periodic rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Areas of drizzle and fog mostly NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and RI this morning. Highs 53-60. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers, favoring coastal areas. Lows 44-51. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, favoring eastern areas during the morning. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

An area of low pressure may clip the region but may largely miss to the south on May 10. Another system may bring some wet weather later in the period but the overall trend is for drier and slightly cooler than average conditions.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

Weak to moderate zonal flow with mean trough in the northeastern US seems the most likely pattern with a couple episodes of showers otherwise mostly dry weather and temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – May 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)

Low pressure moving along a frontal boundary just to the south of New England brought in another round of rainfall overnight, which will exit today. We may see slight improvement in the weather later today in the form of breaks in the clouds as a bit of dry air tries to move in from the north, but the next low pressure is not far behind and will thicken the clouds back up tonight. This low is destined to take a track further north, passing north of the region during Wednesday while a secondary low tries to form near or just south of the region before the entire system pushes offshore at night. This will allow high pressure to build in with nice weather on Thursday after additional unsettled weather during Wednesday. I’ve been eyeing the situation for late week with the potential for impact from yet another storm system. The guidance has been fairly consistent over several runs in trending this system weaker and further southeast – something we have seen a lot of over the last couple months with guidance forecasts of a system as we get closer to it. Most of the time this has worked out and I see no reason to turn my back on it this time. So while I do think we will be somewhat unsettled again Friday, I don’t expect a significant storm system. This low will start to intensify as it pulls away Saturday, which should be a mostly dry but rather blustery and cool spring day as it stands now…

TODAY: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog in the morning. Cloudy with areas of drizzle and fog early-mid afternoon. Breaking clouds late afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Temperatures steady 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH early evening, variable up to 10 MPH late evening, SE 5-15 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with periodic rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms through early afternoon. Variably cloudy with an additional passing rain shower possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light rain and areas of drizzle possible, favoring southern areas in the afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)

A small area of high pressure is expected to bring fair weather during the day May 9 before the next disturbance arrives from the west with additional rounds of unsettled weather May 10-12, before improvement later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)

Weak to moderate zonal flow with mean trough in the northeastern US seems the most likely pattern with a couple episodes of showers otherwise mostly dry weather and temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – May 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)

A beneficially wetter pattern has taken over and has the potential to reduce the longer-term dry issue during the next 5 days. Our frontal friend hangs about still, having moved back to the south as a cold front yesterday, but not before allowing temperatures into the 60s and 70s across the region. Today will be a cooler day with a general onshore (east to northeast) air flow, though most rainfall is going to hold off until we get to tonight as a low pressure wave moves eastward along the frontal boundary as it sits just south of New England. This low will move away Tuesday, with the wettest part of the day in the morning. Some drier air will make an attempt to push into the region from the north during the afternoon as the departing low strengthens, but we probably only see breaks in the clouds at best later Tuesday before the next low approaching from the west thickens the clouds back up later at night. This low is likely to track north of here, and even though the surface frontal boundary may not push all the way northward through the region, it will warm up aloft and a more showery rainfall is likely to occur Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with the passage of this system. Can’t rule out some thunder in this set-up as well. I still believe this system will be moving quickly enough that we have a shot to salvage the second half or at least late day and evening of Wednesday with drier weather and at least some partial clearing. Finally by Thursday, we’ll get a break as high pressure moves in with a nice spring day. But that won’t last. The next low pressure system will already be evolving to our southwest and will be moving into the water just south of New England by later on Friday. This brings are next shot at wet and this time fairly chilly weather as we end up with a slightly stronger onshore air flow to the north of the system. The questions with this are timing and just how far north its precipitation shield comes, so some fine-tuning will be done during the week on this…

TODAY: Thickest clouds north of I-90 and thinning clouds with partial sun to the south this morning. Thinning of clouds further north may allow for some sunshine midday through mid afternoon before cloudiness thickens up from southwest to northeast again by late afternoon or early evening. Highs 55-62 coast, 62-69 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog in the morning. Clouds breaking at times but still a possible rain shower in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH morning, shifting to N 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms overnight. Areas of fog forming. Lows 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH early evening, variable up to 10 MPH late evening, SE 5-15 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms morning. Lots of clouds and intervals of sunshine afternoon with a slight chance of an additional passing rain shower. Highs 58-65, coolest South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle with areas of fog in the afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)

Low pressure may impact the region with rain or even some higher elevation rain/snow mix early May 8 followed by drying but breezy/cool conditions. May squeeze in a nice day May 9 before the next system from the west brings additional unsettled weather potential in the May 10-12 window as the active pattern continues. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)

Weak to moderate zonal flow pattern expected with low amplitude trough tendency in the northeastern US. This would lead passing episodes of showery weather with dry weather between but near to below normal temperatures overall.

C-19 Chat Post – May 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

Over the next several days we’ll see a battle between air masses play out over us while we see a battle between model guidance to resolve the details. Today, instead of going into specific model differences in this discussion, I’m just going to outline the outcome I see most likely and forecast that and its impact. There is not a whole lot of change to the discussion I wrote yesterday, so paraphrasing myself, this is how I see it all playing out now: Frontal boundary sits over us today but a bit to the north, allowing a warm-up, with less wind than we had yesterday. The boundary will start to slip to the south with time, and as it does so more moisture will be coming in from the west above us, so while some areas are still under a canopy of cloudiness and will still be when I post this blog shortly after 8:00 a.m., it is the middle part of the morning that may be the sunniest for the region overall, with variable to considerable amounts of cloudiness both moving into and forming over the region as we go through the day. Some of this cloudiness may be thicken enough to generate patches of light rainfall which may dot or wet the ground in a few locations later in the day or this evening, but this day is not going to turn into a washout by any stretch. Still, a nice Sunday overall given the warmer temperatures and lack of wind in comparison to the 2 days preceding it. Now, this frontal boundary will still be hanging about the region, mainly just to the south Monday and trying to push back to the north Monday night and Tuesday, with more unsettled weather, and one final low pressure wave will move through sometime on Wednesday, leaning toward slightly quicker timing right now, so that we may dry out before that day is over. This leads us to what will likely be the pick of the upcoming week – Thursday, as high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Variably cloudy – most sunshine morning, least sunshine afternoon. Slight chance of brief light rain in some locations during the afternoon. Highs 66-73, except 58-65 in some coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusting 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain by late-day favoring areas south and west of Boston. Highs 55-62 southern NH and northeastern MA, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain. Patches of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the aftenroon hours. Highs 55-62. Wind E to variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely during the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 39-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NW to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

Watching for potential impact from low pressure near or south of New England May 7-8 with slow improvement to follow as that system moves away and high pressure builds in. Still somewhat low confidence on this forecast and will detail these days better as they get closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

Weak to moderate zonal flow pattern expected with low amplitude trough tendency in the northeastern US. This would lead to a couple non-lingering bouts of unsettled weather with variable temperatures, tending to be close to or even slightly below normal if the pattern verifies as expected.

C-19 Chat Post – May 2 2021