C-19 Chat Post – October 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)

A “not-too-bad” weekend will be followed by a stretch of cloudy, wet weather. We are now undergoing the transition into the blocking pattern that has been speculated about for a while with uncertainty as to the timing and exact orientation. Well, the timing is now, and the type of blocking pattern is known as a “Rex block” which is high pressure to the north, in this case centered over eastern Canada, especially Quebec, and upper level low pressure to its south, in this upcoming case generally over New England. Before we get to the unsettled weather though, the weekend won’t be all that bad. We have a weak disturbance moving through the region this morning with lots of clouds around but as the disturbance departs there will be enough drying of air to provide more episodes of sun mixed with clouds during the day. It will be noticeably cooler than the last several days, in face cooler than it has been much of this very mild month, but with the lack of wind it won’t feel that bad outside. Tonight’s sky is expected to end up mostly clear and with high pressure moving overhead, we have a set-up for strong radiational cooling, so it should be a chilly night and some interior locations will likely see their first frosts which are coming late this season. Sunday will feature more sunshine with high pressure over the region, but high cloudiness will begin to increase as we go through the afternoon in advance of approaching low pressure as our blocking sets up. And then it’s time for a period of wet weather with rain moving into and across the region late Sunday night into Monday, which likely tapers off for a while during the day Monday as the initial thrust of moisture moves to the north. But low pressure is going to move eastward and spin itself up across the region Monday night and Tuesday when a more widespread and significant rain is likely. By Wednesday, the low will be on a weakening trend while slowly departing, but improvement in weather will be slow and that day may end up remaining overcast and occasionally wet as well.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 56-63. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 32-37 interior lower elevations, 38-43 elsewhere except 43-48 urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny then increasing high cloudiness later in the day. Highs 56-63. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind calm evening then NE up to 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain returns. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

An unsettled weather pattern will continue with the block still in place, only starting to break down toward the end of the period. Currently I expect an intrusion of slightly drier air for October 28 before the next low pressure system impacts the region with more wet weather October 29 into October 30. This low should be weakening and pulling off to the east by late in the period with gradual improvement.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

A more zonal (west-to-east) upper pattern is expected to become established during this time frame with fair weather more dominant, and variable but mostly near to slightly above normal temperatures. Given guidance performance in medium ranges of late though, this forecast is only low to moderate confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – October 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Guidance is not impressing me at all these days and not giving much in the way of applicable help to putting together the weather forecast, even in the shorter 5-day range. What we know for certain is that a cold front is moving through the region this morning, but a secondary frontal boundary to pass by later holds the coolest air behind it, so we’ll still have a fairly mild day today with varying amounts of clouds. It looks like most shower activity has stayed to the north of the WHW forecast area and I don’t really expect any more showers to pop up during the day, even when the secondary front comes by later. A cooler but dry northerly air flow will take over for the weekend. There had been concern of some wet weather to start the weekend from a potential coastal low with the frontal system not that far south and east of New England, but it doesn’t look like that will really take shape. What will be around is upper level low pressure to produce occasional cloudiness, but probably not strong enough for anything more than a brief passing shower, which I hesitate to even mention in the forecast for the chance being so remote. When we get to early next week the confidence level of the forecast drops off significantly. At least today we are looking at a little more consistency across guidance of some unsettled weather potential for Monday & Tuesday as we see the evolution of a pattern of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south, with the low pressure then moving into (probably just south of) our area for occasional wet weather evolving during the Monday / Tuesday time frame. There is still the opportunity for high pressure to hold most of the wet weather off through Monday after an initial burst of lighter rainfall. Still working on these details and will refine the forecast the next few updates.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain possible. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Lows 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Plenty of uncertainty in the forecast for the final 5 days of October. Assuming the scenario of low pressure getting into the region with wet weather just beforehand, we should see that low exit early in the period with seasonably cool and drier weather for a brief time followed by impact from another low pressure area with initial rain then lingering showers as it may be slow to exit. Still an opportunity for high pressure to be stronger and limit the wet weather too, so you can see this is a low confidence outlook with plenty of change possible.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

I’m no more confident yet on the early November pattern as I am on the one to end October. Leaning toward a gradual return to a more west-to-east flow and variable temperatures along with 1 or 2 unsettled weather threats. Just a general idea for now with lots of fine-tuning to come…

C-19 Chat Post – October 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

A warm front is passing through the region this morning and its parenting low pressure area moving eastward across southern Canada will bring its cold front across the region during early Friday, but both days will be on the mild side, today being the warmer of the two. Our only threat of any rain with either front is a passing shower chance from the cold front Friday morning. Cooler air will filter into the region during the course of the coming weekend, and a low pressure trough in the region Saturday will produce a lot of clouds at times, although any rain threat is limited. Sunday, upper level low pressure will dive across the region out of Canada, bringing the core of the coolest air in. A low pressure wave will be in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley by then and there’s a bit of conflict between various models as to what it does, with some guidance bringing wet weather into southern New England by early Monday while other guidance keeps it to the south with high pressure more in control. I’m leaning toward the latter scenario at this time.

TODAY: Variably cloudy morning, then trending sunnier. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, in the morning. Highs 66-71. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

The trend on guidance has been to evolve a blocking pattern a little more quickly, with high pressure generally centered to the north of the region over southeastern Canada, and approaching low pressure from the west moving more to the southeast to a position south of New England. The big question is if and when rainfall from this system gets into southern New England and if so, how long does it hang around. At this time, the leaning is that it is more likely to happen during the middle and latter portion of this period, but that is not a high confidence outlook, so check updates.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

The weather pattern coming out of October into early November is dependent on the behavior of blocking that evolves in the days before it. Currently, the idea is for the blocking pattern to be in place at the start of the period, then break down back to a more west-to-east flow pattern. There will be at least one threat of rainfall here, but it’s impossible to time when that may be this far in advance, based on the pattern uncertainty.

C-19 Chat Post – October 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)

A midweek warm-up, not the level we saw a lot in the first half of the month, but it’ll be noticeable as high pressure slides south of New England and winds shift around to west and southwest through Thursday. A warm front passing by early Thursday will bring some clouds but right now I think any rainfall stays to the north. The low pressure area parenting this warm front will also drag a cold front through the region on Friday with perhaps a passing shower, favoring the early part of the day, and a return to cooler weather as we head toward the weekend. With a trough hanging about and some energy nearby and the front just offshore, we may be a little unsettled for part of Saturday, though it does not look all that bad. Fair weather returns for Sunday, but the core of a cool Canadian air mass will be arriving at that time and with some very cold air aloft we’ll see some diurnal cloud development that day as well.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 41-48. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with brief light rain possible mainly in southern NH. Partly to mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, mainly during the morning. Highs 60-67. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning. Partly cloudy afternoon with isolated showers possible. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

High pressure is expected to bring fair weather October 25-26, cool to start, then moderating temperatures. The high slips off to the east and the next low pressure area moves through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada later in the period with milder air here and eventually a rain shower threat as a a frontal system approaches.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Continued uncertainty regarding the pattern evolution. Continuing to lean toward a slow evolution toward blocking with high pressure north / low pressure south, but not quite sure yet if we’ll be on the drier or wetter side of the pattern. Initially, leaning toward the drier side with high pressure more in control here.

C-19 Chat Post – October 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)

We will remain in a cool northwesterly air flow today between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure southwest of New England, but this time we will have fewer clouds than yesterday and no threat of rain showers, just fair autumn weather. The fair weather will continue Wednesday and after a cool start you’ll notice a nice temperature moderation as the wind turns more westerly and the coolest air exits. As high pressure slips off the Middle Atlantic Coast, low pressure begins a trek from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, and its warm front will cross the region early Thursday putting us into an even warmer air mass that day, before its cold front crosses the region during Friday. Both of these fronts present minor rain threats. The latter will deliver a new cool air mass to the region starting later Friday, but it may hang near the coast or just offshore for a while to start the weekend, and a wave of low pressure moving along it may bring some additional wet weather to start the weekend. I am not expecting this to be a long lasting or heavy rain event, and it may stay offshore.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 41-48. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with brief light rain possible. Partly to mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, mainly during the morning. Highs 60-67. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

A northerly air flow transports chilly air across the region October 24 and upper level low pressure brings some clouds but any rain shower chance seems small with mostly a dry and blustery autumn day to end the weekend. High pressure is expected to bring fair weather October 25-26, cool to start, then moderating temperatures. The high slips off to the east and the next low pressure area moves through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada later in the period with milder air here and eventually a rain shower threat as a a frontal system approaches.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Continued uncertainty regarding the pattern evolution. Guidance continues to be split between a blocking set-up with high pressure in eastern Canada and low pressure over or just south of the US Northeast States and an alternate scenario which continues a more progressive west to east flow pattern. For now I continue the idea of the westerly flow to start, and a slow evolution toward the blocking set-up. There should be at least one opportunity for unsettled weather, but it can also remain southwest and south of the region depending on the orientation of features.

C-19 Chat Post – October 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)

A cool northwesterly air flow will dominate our weather today and while a trough swings through overhead we’ll have a sun/cloud mix and the chance of a couple pop-up rain showers. The cool air hangs in Tuesday with a breeze, but less clouds as the upper trough pulls away, then heading into midweek high pressure slips to the south of New England and eventually off the Mid Atlantic Coast as we see dry weather and temperature moderating here. A warm front will cross our region early Thursday with some cloudiness and perhaps a few raindrops, but this will be a short-lived event and much of the day ends up fair, mild, and breezy. By later Thursday, low pressure will be moving from the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada and a cold front will be approaching by that evening or night time with a rain shower threat, carrying into Friday as the front moves through the region. By late Friday, we will be experiencing the arrival of another cool air mass from Canada.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing rain shower this afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but may drop to near calm in valley areas.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 41-48. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with brief light rain possible. Partly to mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, mainly during the morning. Highs 60-67. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)

October 23-24 weekend temperatures will likely run below normal here. What’s uncertain is whether it’s a mainly dry weekend (with a few passing pop sprinkles) or if it starts wetter with coastal low pressure passing by Saturday. Leaning toward that low staying far enough offshore for dry weather right now, but need to watch it. High pressure brings dry weather mid period before the next disturbance approaches from the west with milder air but also a rain shower threat by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

Increasing uncertainty for the pattern. We’ve had guidance project a continued west to east flow with up and down temperatures including more chilly air, and we’ve had other guidance project the evolution of a blocking pattern with high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south, and this area on the edge of some stormier weather. A very low confidence outlook leans toward a westerly flow slowly evolving toward a block, some unsettled weather which will be impossible to time this far out, and a tendency for cooler air more than warmer air.

C-19 Chat Post – October 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 17-21)

A strong cold front moved offshore during the early morning hours and has delivered an air mass that puts an end to our mild and at times muggy pattern. The feel of the season arrives today and will remain with us for a few days, courtesy a west and northwest flow between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure moving from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley. An upper level low pressure trough moving across the Northeast. The trough will be responsible for passing clouds both today and Monday, with a few pop up showers possible especially today. The trough will move far enough away for fewer clouds and no shower threat as we head toward midweek, and as high pressure slips off to the south, we’ll experience a temperature moderation especially by Wednesday and Thursday. By later Thursday, low pressure will be moving from the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada and a cold front will be approaching by that evening or night time with a rain shower threat.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a brief passing shower. Highs 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but may drop to near calm in valley areas.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 41-48. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers eveing or night. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)

A frontal boundary may still be passing through the region early October 22 with a rain shower threat as low pressure pulls through eastern Canada. High pressure to the west and low pressure to the northeast means a gusty northwesterly air flow and cooler air coming in during October 23-24 and cannot rule a pop up instability shower in otherwise a dry weather pattern. High pressure is expected to bring fair and tranquil weather October 25-26.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)

High pressure should be in control early and again late period with an unsettled weather threat mid period. Watching for the potential evolution of a blocking pattern with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south, but not sure how quickly this takes place, if it takes place…

C-19 Chat Post – October 17 2021