DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)

A warm front has lifted northeastward through the region during the overnight hours and for the day today we are in an air mass that will remind you of the warm and humid days of summertime, although we’ll have an increasing south and southwest wind to contend with. It will remain rain-free through the daylight hours, but a strong cold front approaching from the west will bring a round or two of showers and the chance of a thunderstorm across the region from west to east this evening and overnight. The front will clear the coastline before dawn Sunday and any lingering showers will pull offshore no later than dawn for easternmost areas, if not before that. The air mass behind this front is one more seasonable for this time of year, and after a handful of warm days, you’ll notice a significant change. Sunday will become our second consecutive breezy day, something we have not seen much of this month, which for parts of the region has been the least-windy October in 4 decades. We’ll have to watch for at least some clouds scurrying across the sky Sunday, and a few of them may build enough to produce passing rain showers, but don’t cancel any apple picking plans over that potential. Monday through Wednesday will feature dry weather across the area. High pressure will stretch from the Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic and Southeast states while low pressure wraps up and hangs out over the Maritime Provinces of Canada. This puts our region in a cool northwesterly air flow for Monday, which then gradually relaxes as the low loses its grip and the high slides a bit further east, allowing winds to slowly relax and temperatures to slightly moderate as we head toward the middle of this week. I’ve talked about the threat of the first frost for some interior lower elevations Tuesday morning. This threat still exists for both Tuesday and possibly Wednesday mornings depending on what the wind does and how low the dew point gets.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms west to east. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a brief passing shower. Highs 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but may drop to near calm in valley areas.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Milder October 21 as low pressure tracks across southeastern Canada bringing a cold front into the region with a shower threat either late October 21 or sometime October 22. Watch for a wave of low pressure which may bring some wet weather to start the October 23-24 weekend followed by a shot of drier and much cooler air. High pressure would bring fair and seasonably cool weather to end the period if things play out as expected.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)

High pressure should be in control early and again late period with an unsettled weather threat mid period. Too soon for any details.

C-19 Chat Post – October 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)

High pressure has shifted to the east but we still have a generally dry and very mild October day today, just with more cloudiness than yesterday. A warm front passing by may produce a brief shower especially north and west of Boston tonight, and it will feel a little bit like summer on Saturday with a gusty south to southwest wind, higher humidity, and warm air in place. But it all comes to an end Saturday night when a strong cold front sweeps across the region from west to east, accompanied by showers, a gusty, shifting wind, and a temperature drop. This leads to a Sunday that will feature a sun/cloud mix and perhaps a passing shower due to an upper level trough over the region, and more seasonable air moving in. This will continue into Monday, which will be cooler still. As winds drop off Monday night, under a clear sky we may see some of the first frost of the season in the interior lower elevations, and Tuesday itself looks fair and slightly milder as high pressure moves into the region.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring central MA and southern NH. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms west to east. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a brief passing shower. Highs 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)

The trend is for more low pressure troughing to show up in eastern Canada and while we have fair and milder weather on October 20 the next unsettled weather system follows toward mid period with shower activity followed by another shot of cool air if things play out as expected.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)

Continuing the idea from the days before this, a little more up and down in the temperature pattern but with a tendency for more cool air to win out. Fairly dry pattern overall but still some minor rainfall threats possible.

C-19 Chat Post – October 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)

High pressure dominates today then shifts off to the east Friday and Saturday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada, dragging its warm front through the region Friday night / early Saturday followed by a fairly strong cold front Saturday evening and night. While the warm front may produce some showers, the best chance of showers and embedded thunder will be with the cold front mostly after sunset into the late evening and possibly overnight hours Saturday / early Sunday from west to east. Behind this comes a gusty westerly wind, cooler and drier air, but with an upper level trough over the region we can expect to see passing clouds Sunday and Monday and even the possibility of a few showers, mainly Sunday, due to instability.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring central MA and southern NH. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms west to east. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a brief passing shower. Highs 61-68. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Broad low pressure troughing may hang in eastern Canada while high pressure tries to move in at the surface, which means fair weather and slight warm-up October 19-20. Next unsettled weather system from the west is due in the October 21-22 window with dry weather returning end of period, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Differences and inconsistencies in medium range guidance help lead to a lower confidence forecast but for now looking for high pressure to be dominant early to mid period with mostly fair weather and low pressure to threaten later in the period with unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – October 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)

High pressure will be in control with generally fair weather through Friday. A couple of disturbances trying to push into the region will bring clouds at times including a couple of dissipating troughs today and again Thursday, then a warm front passes through the region during Friday evening. Temperatures will continue to run above normal through Saturday, at which time a stronger cold front will be approaching from the west, likely passing through the region during Saturday night / early Sunday, bringing showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as well. This will be followed by a breezy and cooler end to the weekend with a stronger westerly air flow behind the front.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 69-76. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible mainly central MA and southern NH. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and possible thunderstorms mainly late afternoon / evening. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms west to east. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a brief passing shower. Highs 61-68. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)

High pressure brings fair weather to the region October 18-20, starting out with cooler weather and the chance of the first frost interior low elevations on the morning of October 19, then moderating temperatures follow this. Unsettled weather possible with a low pressure system approaching from the west later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)

High pressure is expected to regain control of the weather with generally dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures for most of this period. May have an approaching system with unsettled weather by the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – October 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)

High pressure will be in control with generally fair weather through Friday. Exceptions will be a fairly widespread moderate to dense fog across the region for part of this morning due to moisture trapped at low levels of the atmosphere, and a chance of a spot shower Wednesday from the leftovers of a dissipating trough moving in from the west. Temperatures will run above normal in this pattern not only through Friday, but Saturday as well. That day though is going to bring an increased threat for shower and even possible thunderstorm activity as a strong cold front approaches from the west, but at this point the timing would hold most activity off til evening.

TODAY: Foggy into or through mid morning across most of the region with less fog in parts of the Worcester Hills and across the Cape Cod area. Eventually increasing sun. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 69-76. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and possible thunderstorms mainly late afternoon / evening. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)

A cold front clears the region early October 17 with that day seeing a gusty westerly breeze, drier/cooler air, and just the risk of a brief passing shower. High pressure dominates with fair weather and moderating temperatures October 18-20. Next frontal system and shower threat arrives around the end of the period from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Westerly air flow with dry and seasonable temperatures expected for early period, then indications are for high pressure to re-build across the region with fair weather and a warming trend following.

C-19 Chat Post – October 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)

The South Coast rain moved offshore overnight, and other than a few pockets of drizzle from leftover low level moisture via the onshore air flow, we’ll be seeing improving weather today. This is the first and probably only time that Columbus Day will also be Marathon Monday due to the pandemic-rescheduled Boston Marathon. The weather for the race will be decent. A patch of drizzle dampened the ground at the Hopkinton start line to the west of Boston, but things will dry out there in the next little while (I write this update just before the race start waves get underway). As both elite early runners and the waves of additional participants and runners make their way along the course they will run into a light head wind, temperatures rising through the 60s, and moderately humid air by October standards (it won’t feel like mid summer humidity). All-in-all, not too bad. The set-up of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south that has created this weather will be shifting as the high builds over the region through Tuesday, which ends up being a fair and mild day. The mild air continues through mid week and into late week with mostly fair weather, but the remains of a weakening / dissipate trough coming in from the west on Wednesday with bring some cloudiness and the slight chance of a shower.

TODAY: Early drizzle patches end. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SSE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 69-76. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Low pressure passes north of New England October 16 with current timing suggesting an early-day warm front passage and a late-day cold front passage. This brings the opportunity for a couple rounds of showers and even a few thunderstorms. This will be followed by gusty wind, dry and cooler weather to round out the weekend on October 17. After this, high pressure moves over the region with dry weather and moderating temperatures into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)

High pressure will try to hang on to start the period but at some point a stronger westerly flow brings a weather system and air mass change. Fine-tuning to be done in the days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – October 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)

High pressure centered to the northeast of New England and low pressure to the south continue to create a general onshore air flow from the east and northeast. The low to the south will make its best run at us today and this evening, managing to spread some rainfall into the South Coast region and a few patches of rain a little further north into eastern and central MA mainly this afternoon and evening, with some lingering South Coast rain overnight before the high ultimately wins the battle and pushes it all to the south again. This means that Marathon Monday (the first and perhaps only one we’ll ever see in October) will be a rain-free day although there will be a fair amount of cloudiness, moderate humidity and a light head wind for runners. I’m still expecting temperatures to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the early part of the racing and well into the 60s later in the day as the mid to back-of-pack runners are finishing. High pressure at the surface and aloft gains stronger control Tuesday and tries to hang on Wednesday while the remains of a weakening / dissipating trough from the west move in, but then the high regains control again by Thursday, so we see generally fair weather and above normal temperatures heading into the middle of the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Afternoon light rain most likely South Coast with spotty light rain possible elsewhere especially eastern MA. Highs 60-67. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH, a few gusts around 15-20 MPH South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of light rain favoring RI and southeastern MA mainly evening but lingering near the South Coast overnight. Lows 51-58. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Early-morning patches of light rain possible near Cape Cod. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SSE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)

A low pressure area is destined to pass north of New England between late October 15 and late October 16, dragging a warm front / cold front combo across the region. Most rainfall activity with the warm front should stay to the north with October 15 being a partly cloudy and mild day for mid October, and then a round of showers is expected with the cold front, current timing expected to be sometime during the first half of October 16 (Saturday of next weekend) which means the weekend may start out unsettled, after which we should see drier and cooler weather with a westerly breeze take over for the balance of the weekend (through October 17). High pressure looks like it will control the weather with fair weather and another warming trend for the remainder of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)

As we head into late October the indications are mixed from our medium range guidance but at this time I lean toward high pressure being in control of the weather here with mostly fair weather and above normal temperatures.. Some guidance has shown a more progressive flow with systems moving through more frequently and at the same time other guidance has shown a slower, more amplified pattern. When I see this conflict, my tendency is to persist with the same forecast from the day before and watch the trends.

C-19 Chat Post – October 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes and low pressure south of New England combine to create onshore flow this 3-day weekend. Low pressure to the south gets close enough to bring a little rainfall mainly to southern areas at some point Sunday and/or Sunday night, otherwise the main swath of moisture from that system stays to the south and other areas see no more than a few patches of drizzle from time to time through Sunday. Watch for high tide splash-over in vulnerable coastal areas today. For the Boston Marathon on Monday, a general head wind is expected along the course with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s near the start of the race and well into the 60s with moderate humidity for later in the race. Periods of sunshine sneak into parts of the region with a bit of a drier air intrusion from time to time, especially today and again during Monday. High and mid level cloud cover will likely be thicker on Sunday preventing much in the way of any sun even if lower clouds break up at times. Tuesday-Wednesday will see a building of high pressure aloft and a shifting of surface high pressure to the east which is a mild weather pattern here. The remnants of a low pressure trough from the west may initiate a few showers in the region Wednesday but otherwise rain-free weather is expected heading toward the middle of next week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy – partial sun at times. Patches of drizzle possible. Highs 59-66. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 50-57. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A patch of drizzle and fog here and there. Chance of light rain favoring areas south of I-90 mainly during the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of light rain favoring RI and southeastern MA mainly evening. Lows 51-58. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SSE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

High pressure controls with fair weather and above normal temperatures into late next week, then there are signs of a pattern change (said with low to moderate confidence until I see more consistency in medium range guidance). This would bring a cold front through around October 16 and introduce a seasonably cooler westerly air flow with some showers likely marking the change. Timing uncertain of course this far in advance so watch future updates.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

High pressure may re-build over the East Coast with fair weather and above normal temperatures being the most likely weather we see in this stretch. However this is not a high confidence forecast given the uncertainty preceding it, so keep an eye on future updates for this period of time too.