C-19 Chat Post – October 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A mild high pressure area will give way to a cooler one from Canada today, and this announcement will be made by a back door cold front that sweeps southwestward across there region this afternoon and early evening, taking a fairly mild day with light wind and introducing a gusty breeze, cooler air, and eventually low clouds from the ocean, which show up before sunset for some coastal areas but wait until tonight to push across most of the region. The moisture coming off the ocean will be enough to produce pockets of drizzle overnight into Saturday morning when the low clouds will be most extensive, then some drier air will work in to help break up those clouds at least in some areas as we go through the day Saturday, so partial sun is possible. I would not cancel any outdoor plans Saturday as the “worst” of the weather would be a period of drizzle in the morning. At least some low cloudiness may return for a time Saturday night into Sunday but at the same time we’ll have mid and high level cloudiness increasing due to low pressure to our south. This is an area of low pressure area that has been talked about for days on this blog and in other media, trying to answer the question as to whether or not it would move up and mess up part of the holiday weekend (specifically Sunday into Monday, which is also the day of the Boston Marathon this year). I think if we get any shower activity it will be Sunday and only indirectly from that low, in combination with a weakening disturbance moving in from the west, and by Monday all of that energy will have been pushed back to the south and high pressure will be strong enough to keep the region rain-free. We still may have a fair amount of cloud cover around Monday and another thing which can be a minor to moderate concern for runners of the Marathon is that the dew point will be a little on the higher side for mid October, with the humid air potentially having some impact. It won’t be oppressive like summertime by any stretch, but just a bit humid. I should also mention that with astronomical high tide, and the ocean stirred up a bit by low pressure that has been sitting to the south for a while, there can be some high tide splash-over in vulnerable locations this weekend, especially Saturday. By Tuesday, the strongest feature affecting our weather will be high pressure offshore, so expect a fair and mild day, but probably not totally sunny as there will still be some moisture left over for clouds.

TODAY: Patchy clouds early morning, sunshine most of the day, but low clouds may arrive in Seacoast NH and far eastern MA by late in the day. Highs 66-73, may quickly turn cooler in southeastern NH and eastern MA during the second half of the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH through midday, shifting to NE and increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts from northeast to southwest across the region afternoon-evening.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Patchy drizzle and areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with patchy drizzle and a few areas of fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 59-66. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 51-58. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SSE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Other than a couple of very weak / dissipating troughs moving through with some clouds at times, the weather is expected to be governed by high pressure at the surface and aloft much of the time with generally dry weather and above normal temperatures heading through the mid point of October.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

This period should see some giving-way of the high pressure ridging with better opportunities for systems arriving from the west with a couple greater threats for some unsettled weather. Too early for timing on these potentials.

C-19 Chat Post – October 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)

High pressure will remain in control of the weather for most of the next 5 days with one possible interruption about the middle of the holiday weekend. This is going to be dependent on how much interaction there is between an approaching trough from the west and a low pressure area to the south. Right now I am favoring just enough interaction for the chance of some shower activity in the region any time Sunday until very early Monday. Also, after two sunny days today and Friday, a back-door cold front will usher in a maritime air mass and open the door for low cloudiness off the ocean as soon as Friday night lasting into the weekend. So don’t expect the brightest of weekends with all of the above factors taken into account. Monday being the day of the postponed / rescheduled Boston Marathon, it’s of high interest to many in the region, and right now I favor rain-free conditions with abundant cloudiness and moderate humidity for the race. Fine-tuning of this forecast will take place over the next few days.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53, coolest interior valleys. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73 occurring by midday then may turn cooler. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early then N to NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 60-67. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 51-58. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Highs 61-68. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Other than a couple of very weak / dissipating troughs moving through with some clouds at times, the weather is expected to be governed by high pressure at the surface and aloft much of the time with generally dry weather and above normal temperatures heading through the mid point of October.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

This period should see some giving-way of the high pressure ridging with better opportunities for systems arriving from the west with a couple greater threats for some unsettled weather. Too early for timing on these potentials.

C-19 Chat Post – October 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure will dominate the weather for the next few days. First, the initial high pressure system in control is on the weak side and its center a little to our northwest, and some lingering low level moisture in the form of fog patches in lower elevations and a layer of scattered to broken clouds a few thousand feet above the ground will take a little time to dissipate, but as the day goes on a drier northwesterly air flow will help this happen. The high center settles over to just south of the region tonight and Thursday and Thursday will be a day that will feature 100% sunshine and rather mild air. A stronger high pressure center will enter the picture from eastern Canada and a frontal boundary between the initial high and this newer high will pass through the region on Friday with no more than a wind shift to northeast and an increase in wind speed. While Friday will be a mild day, it will start to turn cooler as a northeasterly wind strengthens and transports a Canadian air mass into New England. This sets up a cooler weekend with fair weather but probably some amount of cloud cover arriving Saturday both from ocean moisture at lower levels and some higher level moisture from low pressure to our south. This will continue Sunday but add a weak disturbance trying to come through from the west as the high center shifts to the east and we may add even more clouds with perhaps a few showers. The shower threat is not a certainty at this point, but is something to watch.

TODAY: Fog patches and areas of cloudiness morning. Sunnier midday on. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Lows 44-49, coolest interior low elevations, except 50-55 in urban centers. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches re-forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53, coolest interior valleys. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73 occurring by midday then may turn cooler. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early then N to NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 60-67. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Confidence is moderate to high that high pressure will regain control for dry and mild weather early in the period. We’ll have to watch low pressure to the south again for possible moisture intrusion and wet weather threat by the middle of the period then a return to fair and mild weather later.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

The overall indications are still for high pressure to control with mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures, though toward the end of the period a stronger push from the west may send a front through with a shower chance and introduce some cooler air. Again not a high confidence outlook at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – October 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)

While a wave of low pressure moves away today, a weak wind field and abundant low level moisture will keep us cloudy and damp before high pressure from the north dries us out for mid to late week. After a cool day today, it will warm up for midweek before cooling down late in the week as a stronger push of high pressure from the north takes place.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog, patchy drizzle and spotty light rain through midday. Highs 57-64. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind variable to N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-71. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

High pressure shifts to the east October 10 & 11 leaving some room for the possibility of shower activity on October 10 and maybe another shower later October 11 as a front moves through from the west. High pressure is expected to build in after that with dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

The current indications are for high pressure ridging to be the dominant feature with dry weather and temperatures averaging above normal for mid October.

C-19 Chat Post – October 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)

A rainy Monday starts are week off as low pressure rides along a frontal boundary just south of New England. High pressure in eastern Canada begins a southward push Tuesday with a slow drying process taking place, then the high builds further south and extends over our region with fair and milder weather for midweek, and continued fair but possibly cooler weather by Friday as a cold front may push through from the north at that time.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Steadiest rain during the morning. Occasional rain during the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Periods of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Rain diminishing north to south. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-12)

High pressure is expected to shift far enough to the east during the October 9-11 holiday weekend so that some moisture in the form of cloudiness gets into the region from the south and may end up with some wet weather around the middle of the weekend. A front from the west pushes through around the end of the holiday weekend and high pressure from the west builds in with mostly fair weather heading toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

The current indications are for high pressure ridging to be the dominant feature with dry weather and temperatures averaging above normal for mid October.

C-19 Chat Post – October 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Coastal areas will experience rough surf and high rip current risk today as Hurricane Sam passes by far offshore, and then conditions will subside. Today we’ll be fighting off a rain-producing system with a high pressure shield that is weakening, but we’ll get through the daylight hours across the region without the rain – just varying amounts of cloud cover. We’re starting out relatively mild today, or at least not as cool as yesterday morning was, and it will start to warm nicely across the region even further, only to be thwarted in southern NH and northeastern MA by a frontal boundary advancing southward through the region during the day. There may be some ocean-moisture-created low clouds that come in behind this front, so any thin enough areas to allow sunshine through higher clouds later in the day may be of no benefit in some locations due to the lower cloud cover. Eventually, that frontal boundary will continue and complete its southward journey by tonight as low pressure approaches from the west, finally spreading rain across most of the region, first to the north, then southern areas get involved, and a fairly widespread rain shield will be over the region for early Monday, before it thins out and breaks up somewhat, only to have another return by Monday evening into Monday night. As we get to Tuesday, a renewed push of high pressure from eastern Canada will begin a gradual drying process from north to south, and we’ll see the rain end first, and eventually a decrease in cloud cover, but that may take into mid week to fully occur. High pressure should be more atop the region by Thursday which at this time looks like a fair and mild day.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65 southern NH and northeastern MA, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming E 5-15 MPH southeastern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Occasional rain north of I-90 by mid evening with patchy rain to the south. More widespread rain likely overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Steadiest rain in the morning. Occasional rain in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Rain diminishing north to south. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)

High pressure is expected to sit over and just north of the region with fair and seasonable weather. We need to watch low pressure sitting to the south of the region for possible northward push, or at least some of its moisture being drawn northward into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Low pressure from the south and west may bring wetter weather for the first part of this period before a drier westerly air flow finally takes over. This continues to be a low to moderate confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – October 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)

The first weekend of October may not be a stellar early autumn weekend, but for those in the WHW forecast area (southern NH, central and eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI) it won’t really be that bad either. Temperatures which started out with a bit of a chill this morning will rebound nicely today even though sunshine will be limited at times by an abundance of high and mid level cloudiness streaming in from the northwest. There is enough mid level moisture to possibly result in brief rainfall in southern NH and northeastern MA this morning before that area moves out. We’re on the “warm” side of a boundary for now. This is the boundary mentioned in yesterday’s discussion which makes Sunday’s temperature forecast more tricky as it is destined to sink southward, back-door cold front style, during the day. This will leave areas mainly south and west of Boston warmest while areas to the north and east turn noticeably cooler. We also have the wild card of whether or not some lower cloudiness comes in off the ocean in the cooler areas, while we’ll still be dealing with a lot of higher clouds streaming in above. Eventually that higher and mid level cloud cover will thicken and lower and lead to rainfall, but at the moment I think the rainfall will only be patchy by Sunday evening before becoming more widespread overnight into Monday morning, before becoming patchy again. Regardless, a wet start to the week seems likely as a wave of low pressure moves along that frontal boundary. All the while, high pressure will still be centered to the north and will be ready to make a southward push, eventually enough to kick the wet weather out of here. However that may take until later Tuesday to happen, leaving us with dry weather by the middle of next week. Whether we get rid of the clouds by then or not is another matter and one I will figure out as we get closer to it. And I know you’ve been hearing this all week but one more reminder of the increased ocean swells / surf / rip currents (if you have coastal plans) due to Hurricane Sam far offshore.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Brief showers possible southern NH and northeastern MA this morning. Highs 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65 southern NH and northeastern MA, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind E 5-15 MPH southeastern NH and northeastern MA, variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Occasional rain north of I-90 by mid evening with patchy rain to the south. More widespread rain likely overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Steadiest rain in the morning. Occasional rain in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain mainly in the morning favoring southern areas. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)

High pressure is expected to sit over and just north of the region with fair and seasonable weather. We need to watch low pressure sitting to the south of the region for possible northward push, or at least some of its moisture being drawn northward into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Low pressure from the south and west may bring wetter weather for the first part of this period before a drier westerly air flow finally takes over. Low to moderate confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – October 2 2021