DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

We’re about to change the year but keep the same pattern. And so it goes. The final day of 2021 will feature low level moisture plaguing us at the surface with low clouds, fog, and patches of drizzle, while some upper level energy adds the chance of a few rain showers. This doesn’t change all that much this evening as we count down the final hours of the year and welcome 2022, which will open with an unsettled weekend. Low pressure tracks across the Northeast Saturday with periods of rain as the air will be too mild to support any freezing or frozen precipitation. A cold front does pull through the region on Sunday with a few more rain showers around, but as colder air finally does arrive any leftover precipitation would be snow showers at night, and then we get a sharp but brief shot of cold air Monday. But this pattern does not let cold hang around long and we’ll already be moderating by Tuesday with continued fair weather.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Highs 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Isolated rain showers. Lows 38-45. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)

Moderating temperatures early period. Mid period unsettled weather, track of low pressure to determine scope and type of precipitation. Fair, colder finish to the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)

Same overall pattern but a hint at a colder trend. One or two systems may bring precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – December 31 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

La Nina / weak to moderate MJO mostly in phase 7 / positive NAO / etc… There are some of you who know what this means, and others that may not. Basically these 3 and other (etc) reasons as well are why our overall weather pattern is as it is and isn’t really changing all that much for now either. Highlights are quick-moving but not powerful storm systems in fairly regular and frequent succession, rain favored over snow, overall mild but brief cold. The next weak low crosses the region tonight and early Friday. A small bubble of high pressure moves in later Friday but with weak air flow and a lot of low level moisture, any clearing we see will be very limited. The next low, while not a strong system, will have more moisture with it, and we look for a rainy start to 2022 on Saturday. While the trailing frontal system from this low is to be somewhat aligned with the upper level winds, it won’t move offshore all that quickly, and with another wave of low pressure moving along it and upper level energy still to swing through, we stay unsettled though mild into Sunday as well, though rainfall will take the form of more showers than steady. Finally later Sunday colder air will arrive, but most of the precipitation will have exited and we may just see a few snow showers with its arrival. A brief but sharp cold shot follows for Monday as a chunk of cold air is pulled southeastward out of Canada and into the northeastern US, but this will come along with dry weather between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west.

TODAY: Cloudy. Area of drizzle and fog. Patchy light rain possible late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Chance of light rain. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and drizzle and a chance of light rain. Mostly cloudy midday on with a few breaks of sun possible as well. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)

Fast-moving systems as the same general pattern continues. Unreliable guidance and difficulty in timing anything leads to a general idea of fair weather and moderating temperatures early in the period, unsettled weather mid period, fair and colder weather later in the period, but this is a low confidence outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)

Same overall pattern but a hint at a colder trend. One or two systems may bring precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – December 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

The remains of a low pressure system exit today but clouds hang in after the chance of an early snow flurry. The next system in the string of disturbances arrives Thursday, but this time the atmosphere will be warm enough to support just a light rain event. A bubble of high pressure brings a drier day for the last of 2021, though the clouds may be stubborn to let go. As 2022 arrives, the pattern will stay the same, and the next low pressure area, this one with a bit more moisture available, arrives on New Year’s Day with more rain. Behind this one another low should pass to the south of New England on a trailing frontal system, but far enough away to keep its main precipitation off to the south and east while we just see rain showers on Sunday from an upper level disturbance, which may end as snow showers as colder air arrives.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow flurries around early. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Light rain mostly midday and afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain during the evening. Mostly to partly cloudy overnight. Areas of black ice forming. Lows 27-34. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 36-41. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Increasing clouds. Lows 29-36. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, may end as snow showers. Highs 42-49 morning, falling into the 30s during the afternoon. Wind variable becoming W increasing to 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)

Same overall pattern. A colder/dry interlude followed by moderating and another precipitation (favoring rain) chance later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)

Pattern remains active, temperature trend appears to be colder, potentially increasing opportunities for some snowfall.

C-19 Chat Post – December 29 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

A caution: Overnight some areas of rain and snow moved through and in some locations the ground is icy due to temperatures at or just below freezing where rain or partial snow melt occurred. Use caution exiting home / apartments and walking / driving on untreated surfaces, especially north and west of Boston. This will only last a short while as temperatures will rise above freezing during this morning and melt any of the ice. Our weather pattern continues to be one where we see most of the cold and snow in the western US, a very mild and dry southeastern US, and frequent but weak weather systems passing through our region between the two. Another such weather system passes by during tonight and early Wednesday, producing a light variety of precipitation. The next one on its heels will be a rain event Thursday. We enjoy a dry final day of 2021 on Friday thanks to an area of high pressure, and it won’t be all that cold for activities such as First Night in Boston that include many outdoor events. As 2022 arrives though, we’ll already be seeing impact from the next low pressure area coming along. Indications are that this will be a rain event too.

TODAY: Cloudy with spotty snow flurries and sprinkles of rain as well as patchy light fog early morning, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow/ice/rain possible overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light mix/ice away from coast, rain coast, mainly in the morning. Highs 37-44. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain, may start as freezing rain away from the coast. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain during the evening. Clearing overnight. Watch for black ice formation. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)

Transition from mild/wet to cold/dry early in the period. Moderating temperatures and one or two systems bringing precipitation chances mid to late period as the active weather pattern continues.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)

Pattern remains active, temperature trend appears to be colder, potentially increasing opportunities for some snowfall.

C-19 Chat Post – December 28 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)

The final 5-days of 2021 will present a continuation of the weather pattern we’ve been in: Frequent weather systems passing through, no major storms in terms of powerful low pressure areas, but plenty of things to keep track of. The ridge of high pressure in the southeastern US remains a major player in the large scale pattern while we see some seriously cold air enter the western US, helping to fuel the contrast that keeps these systems coming. Locally, we’ll only see minor impacts from these systems as there is not much support to keep them healthy as they move through the region. After a nice but cold start today, we’ll see clouds move in ahead of the next disturbance which will result in a little bit of snow, ice, and rain tonight, depending on your location. A second impulse will come along later Tuesday night into Wednesday, producing a minor variety of precipitation. Despite these being “minor” events in terms of strength and duration, both of them can become a little more significant in that they both bring threats of some icing conditions away from the immediate coast where freezing rain occurs, so travel hazards for walking and driving on untreated surfaces exist for both late tonight into Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday. The air should warm enough so that the next threat from a system moving through on Thursday should be mostly in the form of light rain, but temperature may also be marginal for icing over some interior areas for this, depending on its timing, so we have to keep an eye on it too. It looks like an area of high pressure should bring dry weather at the end of this 5-day period as we reach the final day of 2021 on Friday.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Late evening and overnight light snow to freezing rain except mix to rain South Coast region and South Shore of MA. Lows 22-29 evening, rising to 30-37 overnight. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with spotty light freezing rain inland and rain near the coast early, then partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow/ice/rain possible overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light mix/ice away from coast, rain coast, mainly in the morning. Highs 37-44. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain, may start as freezing rain away from the coast. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)

New year, continued active pattern, as we watch for precipitation events on New Year’s Weekend (January 1-2) and another toward the end of the period. The confidence is low on any forecast out beyond a few days still, so won’t try to guess on any details for these events. Variable temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)

Pattern remains active, temperature trend appears to be colder.

C-19 Chat Post – December 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)

The Christmas event was a little more potent than even our best short range guidance indicated, representing the second significant failure by short range guidance in as many months and reinforcing the idea that even that needs to be taken with some salt grains in this pattern, which will continue for some time to come. We see improvement today as our most recent system moves away to the east and a bubble of high pressure moves in later today into Monday. It’s important to note that some areas, especially west and north of Boston, still have ice on untreated surfaces that will take a while to melt away, but should do so for the most part by later today… We’ll be eyeing two low pressure systems for this 5-day period as we head down the home stretch of 2021. The indications are that neither of these will be major systems, and that the first one will be in the process of dissipating as it passes by Monday night and early Tuesday, and the second one will also be weakening but may have more moisture with it as it comes through the region Wednesday. Fine-tuning will be needed…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a brief period of light snow possible. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix north, mix/rain south. Highs 35-42. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period, favored times around January 1 and 4. Neither look like major events. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – December 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)

A Christmas Day travel hazard due to freezing rain (except the South Shore of MA and South Coast region where the temperature is already and will remain above freezing. As the rain moves in early this morning from the west, it will freeze on untreated surfaces where temperatures are at or below 32F. We won’t see enough icing for tree damage and power outages, but we will see enough for hazardous driving and walking on untreated surfaces until such a time that the temperature rises sufficiently to stop the process and melt the ice on these surfaces. This may take much of the day to happen especially over interior areas to the west and north of Boston. With low pressure pulling away and intensifying through Sunday, other than the possibility of a few snow flurries from an upper level disturbance, we will be dry and not too cold, so most icy spots will melt away / dry up and walking conditions will improve. High pressure brings fair weather Monday into Tuesday. The next low pressure area is due Wednesday with another round of unsettled weather, early leaning toward rain over snow.

TODAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Rain arriving from west to east early. Icing conditions away from the coast, gradually diminishing from southeast to northwest later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind E to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Mix/rain likely. Highs 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats. Timing / details not possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – December 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)

A little bit of winter weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Our region sits on the colder side of a frontal boundary today as a wave of low pressure moves by this morning, producing a light snowfall for the region. The boundary shifts a little bit to the north allowing some warming aloft as another disturbance comes along for Christmas Day, so any precipitation that starts as sleet or snow in northern MA northward will quickly switch to freezing rain/drizzle, especially away from the coast, with icing likely. To the south, the temperature should be warm enough so that most areas see rain, but there still could be some pockets of freezing rain away from the coast in the early morning. The surface should warm enough to transition most areas to non-freezing rain by midday, except a few lingering pockts of icing in places like the Merrimack Valley and southern NH. While this will not be a major system, it doesn’t take much freezing precipitation to produce hazardous walking and driving conditions on untreated surfaces, so keep this in mind if you are doing holiday travel by wheels or by feet. The low pressure area responsible for the Christmas Day precipitation will intensify as it moves away to the east on Sunday, leaving us with a blustery and chilly ending to the holiday weekend with a few snow showers possible as an upper disturbance moves through. When we get to early next week, we’ll again find ourselves on the colder side of a boundary with additional disturbances trying to make it out of the Midwest into the Northeast. I don’t have much faith in these systems surviving fully, so we’ll probably just end up with varying amounts of cloud cover with mostly precipitation-free conditions. That’s the leaning for now.

TODAY: Cloudy with snow of a coating to 1 inch (locally up to 2 inches) this morning. Partly sunny this afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Clouds return. A little snow or sleet possible southern NH and northern MA pre-dawn, with a bit of light rain / freezing rain to the south. Lows 25-32 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind N to E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain with freezing rain away from the coast and especially near and north of I-90, transitioning to plain rain from south to north before tapering off during midday-afternoon. Highs 34-41. Wind E to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats. Timing / details not possible this far in advance.