C-19 Chat Post – January 24 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

While high pressure tries to control the weather here in New England it will have issues keeping a couple of small intruders out – those intruders being a couple of rather weak disturbances coming along via the Great Lakes. The first one will bring cloudiness today and perhaps some snow showers this evening. After a sunnier interlude during the day Monday, the next one will approach Monday night into Tuesday, with a shield of snow ahead of its warm front bringing a small accumulation to at least parts of the region. While we get briefly into the warm sector as this low travels just north of here, Tuesday ends up as our mildest day of this forecast period, because the cold front will then swing quickly through with colder air returning Tuesday night, and a second front will whistle across the region early Wednesday bringing in another shot of much colder air, a gusty wind making that feel even sharper. High pressure brings fair weather Thursday with a slightly temperature moderation but still sub-normal.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, partial sun possible. Highs 31-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Patchy clouds, more sun likely. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. A coating to 1 inch of snow possible overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow early morning. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 30-37 morning, falling into the 20s afternoon. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8 except 8-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Temperatures are expected to remain generally below normal for this period. We remain vulnerable to potential storm systems as well with the first one to watch between later January 28 and January 29. Guidance, as expected, has been inconsistent with this and offers no help in trying to make many early guesses on the impact from this system, so that will happen later.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Pattern change starts to take place with a milder trend trying to develop as we see more upper level high pressure becoming established over the southeastern US, but with a lot of cold air in Canada this still leaves our region vulnerable to unsettled weather with temperature fluctuations.

C-19 Chat Post – January 23 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)

The ocean-effect snow machine tends to work in relatively short bursts in our area, as it’s not too often we have the conditions perfect to have it persist for all that long, but this time is a little different. Since early Friday, this has been going on, starting over Cape Cod and the MA South Shore, with a brief tapering break, then a return to activity that then shifted more to the north to include Boston and Cape Ann as well, and heading southwestward into southern portions of central MA at times as well. I’ve even seen occasional flakes here in Woburn which is about 10 to 12 miles northwest of Boston, being right on the edge of the northernmost band at times. Snowfall accumulations with events like this are often very difficult to get exactly right, due to the sometimes narrow heavier bands that can shift back and forth, or remain in place, depending on the exact location of little convergence zones and overall wind direction at any given time. These snowfalls often present in very high snow to water ratios, as previously mentioned by a fellow meteorologist on the blog yesterday (20:1 ratios can be very common and even sometimes they can go much higher than that). It doesn’t take much moisture to pile up a few inches of pure feather fluff snow. This is very easy to clean, but it can make the roads slippery if there is partial melting and refreezing due to previous road treatment but also very cold air in place, or a quick covering of snow is then packed down by vehicular traffic. Some may wonder why an onshore wind off an ocean that is quite mild (40+ degrees) would create such fluffy snow. Well the quick answer is that the air heading from eastern Canada and Maine into and across those waters was very cold, in some cases below zero, so yes, it does modify, but maybe only to the teens and 20s by the time it’s crossed the water enroute to the shore, picking up enough moisture to deposit the fluff in the still very cold air, even after it’s been modified. I mentioned that this set up is less common to see here because our “average” weather does not create this set up of northeast winds for very long periods of time to create the ocean effect snow, in contrast to a place like Buffalo, where they average colder than we do anyway and also tend to see more persistent winds from the west, giving them more opportunity for lake effect events. Of course if you take the entire Great Lakes into account, you’re talking about a huge sample size compared to our very small area of coast, so it pretty much becomes an irrelevant comparison at that point – but you get the idea by keeping it in the proper perspective. 🙂 So how about the rest of the weather for this weekend and early next week? Well, we are being missed by a storm to the south today, as became clear would likely happen during the past few days. And we’ll have more cold but generally dry weather for Sunday and Monday as weak high pressure dominates our weather, although some upper level energy passing through will bring some varying amounts of cloudiness during Sunday before we end up with more sun Monday. When we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, it gets a little more complex. We’re going to be in a set-up that guidance can mess up royally even just a couple days out. Tuesday a wave of low pressure passes to our north, a warm front passing by in the morning with no more than clouds and maybe some spotty snowfall. We “warm up” in a relative sense that day, pushing 40 or so, and then a cold front swings by later. It would likely be mild enough for a rain shower with this but I’m not even sure there will be enough moisture to produce anything, and then we chill-down behind that front Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is going to be more energy back to our southwest so we have to watch for a wave of low pressure to form, just in case it’s a little more of something than guidance currently indicates. If this is the case, Wednesday could end up messy with overrunning precipitation, probably of the frozen variety, or it could all end up happening too far to the south and we stay mainly dry and chilly. This will be the puzzle I’ll be trying to solve over the next few days. For now, for forecast purposes, I’ll lean dry but add the chance of some snow/mix for southern areas.

TODAY: Lots of clouds northeastern through south central MA southward with occasional snow showers, but more persistent snow shower bands especially near and south of Boston where up to a few additional inches of snow are possible. More sun to the northwest. Highs 17-24, but 25-30 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 20-27. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow early. Maybe a rain shower late. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow southern areas. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. Watching for two potential low pressure impacts around January 28-29 and again about January 30-31. Too soon for any speculation on details.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

The beginning of a pattern change. Trending milder, some unsettled weather during the transition.

C-19 Chat Post – January 22 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)

Cold and mainly dry weather will be the story for the next few days. Ocean-effect snow showers will be one exception from the MA South Shore to Cape Cod today, where some minor snowfall accumulations will occur, and a few more of these may occur tonight into Saturday as well as a storm passes to the south of our area, keeping the wind’s trajectory just onshore enough. High pressure will be the main player in our weather through through Monday, supplying the cold air. High pressure shifts offshore Tuesday with moderating temperatures, and a frontal boundary approaches from the west with a chance of some precipitation – and by then it may be mild enough to talk about rain showers.

TODAY: Clouds and snow showers MA South Shore through Cape Cod with a coating to as much of 3 inches of accumulation, except a band of greater than 3 inches likely over a narrow area. More sunshine elsewhere. Highs 18-25. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Possible snow showers Cape Cod and MA South Shore. Lows 0-8 north and west of Boston, 8-15 Boston through Cape Cod. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers MA South Shore and Cape Cod early. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of mix/rain showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. We’ll have to watch low pressure to the south for potential impact early and again later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 21 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

A cold front has passed by our region and a wave of low pressure moving up along it, passing just to our southeast, will cause a period of rain to snow this morning with some minor snow accumulation especially near and south of I-90 / I-84 before we dry out. But it will be turning colder as the day goes on and any untreated wet or slushy surfaces will become icy with time. Much colder air moves in tonight through Friday, when some ocean-effect snow showers may occur over Cape Cod due to a northerly wind blowing that very cold air over relatively warm water. Some of these ocean effect snow showers may start to impact the South Shore of MA Friday night and Saturday as we get a temporary turning of the wind a little more northeasterly as low pressure passes southeast of New England during that time. High pressure will build in with cold and dry weather Sunday holding through Monday as well as another low passes far to the south of our area.

TODAY: Cloudy with rain changing to snow this morning, ending by midday. Snow accumulation from a coating to 1 inch with locally up to 2 inches possible, mostly near and south of I-90 / I-84. Clearing northwest to southeast later in the day. Highs 33-38 except 38-43 South Coast early, then gradually falling temperatures during the day. Wind NE to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except clouds and snow showers developing Cape Cod. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers Cape Cod and MA South Shore. Lows 10-17. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers MA South Shore and Cape Cod with a chance of a period of steady snow on the islands and outer Cape Cod. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22 Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. We’ll have to watch low pressure to the south for potential impact, but nothing clear-cut at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 20 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)

A warm front moves through this morning, setting up a breezy but relatively mild day across our region. This warm front extends from low pressure moving north of New England, and its cold front will then cross the region during the early hours of Thursday with a few rain and snow showers. But just as the front is moving off the South Coast, a wave of low pressure will move up along it, resulting in some overrunning moisture which will meet the colder air to bring a brief snowfall to the region Thursday morning. This will move out by later in the day and then we’re dry and cold, but windy, Thursday night and Friday, although ocean effect snow showers are likely over Cape Cod late Thursday night into Friday as a cold northerly wind travels over relatively warm ocean water. The weekend also looks cold, and we’ll continue to watch a storm system set to pass southeast of the region on Saturday. Guidance has developed more agreement that this system will just graze southeastern areas or be a near-miss, and that remains my leaning as well, but it still has to be watched. High pressure builds in with dry weather Sunday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH with gusts to or a little over 20 MPH possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers then snow showers overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through midday with a period of snow likely – accumulation 1 to 3 inches except under 1 inch southern NH and northern MA as well as outer Cape Cod and the Islands. Increasing sun thereafter. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early then NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Snow showers developing over Cape Cod. Lows 12-17. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 10-17. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring far southeastern areas. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)

The overall pattern remains colder than normal. There will be low pressure systems to watch for potential impact, about 3 during this period, basically every other day. None of these are guaranteed hits – we just remain in a vulnerable pattern during this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 19 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)

We’ll have a cold and blustery day today as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and yesterday’s storm spins in the Canadian Maritimes. Tonight, high pressure slides overhead, then offshore on Wednesday. A warm front will pass by during the morning with some clouds, and the day will be the mildest of this week. Low pressure that parents this warm front will be moving eastward down the St. Lawrence Valley and its cold front will swing through the region during Thursday morning and midday with some rain to snow showers. A little wave of low pressure on the front may result in a period of snow especially across southeastern MA and RI where there may be a small accumulation before it moves away during the afternoon. This will set us up with the next shot of cold air late in the week. Friday will be mostly dry but the position of high pressure means that a northerly wind can cause some snow showers across Cape Cod. The question for Saturday’s weather is whether or not we’ll be impacted by low pressure passing to the south of the region. Some guidance says it will come close enough to give our region accumulating snow. Other guidance indicates a miss. The pattern says we’ll likely be right on the edge one way or another, and with the uncertainty in the guidance as far as a day 5 forecast goes, I’ll just lean toward a graze and can adjust either way later.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers then snow showers overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through midday with a period of snow possible mainly southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT that may leave a coating to 1 inch of accumulation. Increasing sun thereafter. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early then NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-17. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 10-17. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring southeastern areas. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)

Temperatures are expected to run mostly below normal during this period. We may have to watch for a passing low pressure area to the south January 24 indicated by some guidance (but not all guidance), and another system is possible around January 26 with a chance of some snowfall. Too early to try detailing anything.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 18 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)

A stormy Monday morning for the WHW forecast area, with most areas now in the form of rain, with snow only hanging on in the highest elevations of northern Worcester County through southwestern NH, where several inches have fallen. These areas will also go to rain early this morning before the main batch of precipitation lifts north of the region. We’ve seen some pretty heavy rain along with moderate to strong wind gusts across the region, with strongest wind gusts over 50 MPH along coastal areas, even a few gusts above 60 MPH. We’ve seen a variety of issues from this storm, ranging from some fallen tree limbs and power outages to areas of flooding on roads, in parking lots, and probably some basements. There are also some slick spots where excessively cold ground allowed the rain to freeze on it, so even where temperatures are above freezing there are still some icy spots to watch out for on untreated walkways early today. We’ll also have to watch for some coastal flooding at high tide this morning. Thankfully, most schools and some businesses have a holiday today for MLK Jr. Day, so the morning commute is might lighter than a normal one. Conditions will ease as we get to midday and afternoon as the low pressure area lifts north northeastward and heads for southeastern Canada after passing west of here, but it will still be windy at times as it passes by to our north tonight and some colder air makes a return back to the region. While the main precipitation will be gone, we can still see some rain and snow showers as the colder air comes back in. Expect dry weather but with chilly air and a gusty breeze for Tuesday between the departing low and approaching high pressure. This high will scoot across the region Tuesday night and offshore Wednesday as the next low pressure area, a much weaker one, heads out of the Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. Its warm front will pass by early in the day, its cold front following by early Thursday, with a bit of unsettled weather, but Wednesday itself will be a fairly nice day with a milder feel to the air. The cold air will filter back in on Thursday and a secondary front will deliver even colder air for Friday, at which time we will be dry with the exception of some Cape Cod snow showers due to a northerly wind flow over relatively warm ocean water.

TODAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain through midday (except snow to rain higher elevations northern Worcester County and southwestern NH), then mostly cloudy with scattered to isolated rain showers but also breaks of sun possible. Highs 38-45 except 45-52 southeastern MA, occurring by late morning before slowly falling during the afternoon. Wind SE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas morning becoming variable for a brief time, then shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds early with a chance of a little light snow southern NH and northern MA, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 36-43. Wind SE up to 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers possible except rain or snow showers closer to the coast especially southern areas early. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-17. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sunshine except clouds and snow showers possible over Cape Cod. Highs 18-25. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)

Temperatures are expected to run mostly below normal during this period. We’ll have to watch passing low pressure areas over the January 22-23 weekend and probably another one later in the period for potential wintry precipitation threats.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather (snow etc.) possible as we head toward the end of the first month of 2022.

C-19 Chat Post – January 17 2022