DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

Another cold morning across southeastern New England, with low temperatures ranging from around or just below 0 in the outskirts of the WHW forecast area over southwestern NH and parts of central MA to the middle 10s over the ocean-water-modified areas of Cape Cod. The arctic air will start to relax its grip on the region today as high pressure moves overhead, providing bright sunshine for a good part of the day. You’ll notice the advance of some high clouds from the southwest later in the day though, and this is a forerunner of an approaching storm to impact us Monday, pretty much starting right around or shortly after midnight from southwest to northeast. The track of the low pressure area will be west of this region, from PA through NY State and maybe exiting New England via northern VT. The primary low will remain dominant with only a hint at new development just as the occluding frontal system is passing by our region Monday morning. Expect precipitation to start as snow for many areas, but along the coast it will probably begin as a rain/snow mix, or brief snow at most, before going to rain. This rain/snow line will then push northwestward fairly quickly and steadily during the early hours of Monday, maybe with a strip of sleet between the snow and rain. The expected snowfall accumulation hasn’t changed from what I wrote yesterday, and to summarize that, it’s no accumulation on Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod east of the canal, a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH, before all of these areas change to rain. There may be a few amounts in excess of 6 inches in the highest elevations of northern Worcester County and southwestern NH. The precipitation will cut off in the afternoon as a dry-slot moves in from the south, with only just a few scattered rain showers remaining. Wind will be an issue but most especially in coastal areas where wind gusts of 50+ MPH may occur in advance of the low’s passage, prior to the arrival of the dry slot. As the low lifts into Canada, some colder air coming around the back side may result in scattered snow showers (except rain showers at first Cape Cod) Monday evening. Low pressure moving away through the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building into the Great Lakes will bring us a cold and blustery but dry day Tuesday. The next low pressure area is destined for a track through the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley Wednesday and early Thursday. For our area this means a warm front will pass by early Wednesday with clouds and perhaps a touch of light snow, favoring southern NH and northern MA, a brief spike of somewhat milder air, and a cold front coming through early Thursday with a threat of rain and snow showers, followed by the return of dry and colder air.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Precipitation arriving overnight as rain or brief mix to rain Nantucket and outer Cape Cod, snow elsewhere with accumulation a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH with a couple greater-than-6-inch amounts possible in highest elevations. Lows 15-22 evening, rising overnight. Wind NE to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts Cape Cod / South Coast overnight.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain through midday, then mostly cloudy with scattered to isolated rain showers but also breaks of sun possible. Highs 38-45 except 45-52 southeastern MA, occurring by late morning before slowly falling during the afternoon. Wind SE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas morning becoming variable for a brief time, then shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds early with a chance of a little light snow southern NH and northern MA, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 34-41. Wind SE up to 10 MPH early, then SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers possible except rain or snow showers closer to the coast especially southern areas. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watch for one or potentially 2 storm threats as we’re in a pattern keeping us vulnerable to winter weather threats.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple additional opportunities for wintry weather (snow etc.) possible.

C-19 Chat Post – January 16 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

The arctic chill has hold of our region today, along with wind, so it’s bitterly cold despite bright sun. Bundle up if you have to be outside! The wind drops off tonight / early Sunday but we stay quite cold, recovering a little bit but staying cold and more tranquil Sunday as high pressure settles over the region. Then once again our attention turns to a storm racing this way from the southeastern US. It’s time to detail it, and the most likely track takes a primary low up through PA & NY State while a secondary starts to redevelop pretty much right over the WHW forecast area on Monday (MLK Jr Day). This track, with cold air in place to start, would allow the storm to start at snow for most areas west of the Cape Cod Canal, but probably rain or a brief rain/snow mix going to rain over Cape Cod and the Islands, and then a southeast wind and warming both surface and aloft would rapidly move a rain/snow line northwestward, but not before some snow accumulation, least near the coast, most over interior higher elevations. I’ll mention it again in the detailed forecast below but I’m expecting no accumulation on Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod east of the canal, a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH, before all of these areas change to rain. The precipitation will cut off in the afternoon as we get a dry-slot from the south. Wind will be an issue but most especially in coastal areas where wind gusts of 50+ MPH may occur in advance of the low’s passage, prior to the arrival of the dry slot. As the low lifts into Canada, some colder air coming around the back side may result in scattered snow showers (except rain showers at first Cape Cod) Monday evening. Look for dry but colder weather to dominate Tuesday/Wednesday.

TODAY: Clouds and snow showers outer Cape Cod and Nantucket with minor accumulation through midday then increasing sun. Sunny elsewhere. Highs 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill well below 0 this morning easing to around 0 at times later.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 1-6 except 7-12 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.. Wind chill below 0 early.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Precipitation arriving overnight as rain or brief mix to rain Nantucket and outer Cape Cod, snow elsewhere with accumulation a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH. Lows 15-22 evening, rising overnight. Wind NE to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts Cape Cod / South Coast overnight.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain through midday, then mostly cloudy but breaks of sun possible. Highs 38-45. Wind SE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas morning becoming variable for a brief time, then shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Cold front passes through early January 20 and brings another shot of cold air to the region to end next week. Watch for a possible storm system later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 15 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

Today’s update holds very similar thoughts to yesterday’s. We’re dealing with an offshore ocean storm today that will create increasing wind, especially along the coast, but only minor precipitation, in the form of rain mainly over Cape Cod and up possibly to about Plymouth before it pulls offshore, possibly with a few insignificant snowflakes or some minor accumulation at best at the end later today. But tonight, as the storm intensifies and lifts toward the Canadian Maritimes, it will, combined with high pressure north of the Great Lakes, pull in an arctic air mass with a plunging temperature, a rapid freeze-up of any wet surfaces, and a very low wind chill. The arctic chill will be around right through Saturday night too as the high pressure area presses closer to the region, then sits over us for the early part of Sunday, which will also be a cold but more tranquil day. You’ll notice an increase in high clouds as Sunday goes along, and this will be due to the approach of a low pressure area from the south southwest. The expectation remains that this storm will have a short-lived but significant impact on the region Monday (MLK Jr Day), with its track to determine precipitation type. While I wait for the guidance to help us figure out the storm’s interaction with some energy in the northern jet stream (the storm is being carried by a southern jet stream in a split flow), the leaning will still be toward yesterday’s outlook, a low track that passes over or just west of the WHW forecast area, with precipitation starting as snow inland and snow/mix/rain in coastal areas, with possibly a change to rain pushing inland, but not 100% certain this will happen just yet, so the wording of the detailed forecast will remain vague enough to cover this uncertainty, which will be detailed more on tomorrow’s and Sunday’s blog updates. The storm, in whatever form we see its precipitation, will exit late Monday and be followed by drier, colder weather Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. A period of rain Cape Cod / Islands that may end as mix with or change to snow this afternoon with brief minor accumulation of snow possible. Clouds may thin especially in western areas later. Highs 37-42 except 42-47 Cape Cod this morning. Temperatures falling this afternoon by midday. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts, as high as 40 MPH inland and as high as 60 MPH over Cape Cod by later in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower anywhere but snow showers likely Cape Cod / Islands where some accumulation is likely. Lows 1-6 except 7-12 Cape Cod. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often well below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy with possible snow showers outer Cape Cod. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-8 except 9-14 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.. Wind chill below 0 early.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain/mix/snow arriving overnight. Temperatures rise to 30s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely, ending by late. Highs 38-45. Wind SE to variable 10-20 MPH, stronger gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Sun and clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

Watch for a couple addition but probably weaker systems to bring mostly minor precipitation threats with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Temperatures near to below normal and additional opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 14 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

We have 2 storm systems to deal with before the conclusion of the MLK Jr. Weekend upcoming, but before that a weak disturbance moving through this morning is causing a touch of light snow across portions of southern NH and far northern MA, but this won’t amount to much more than a dusting in a few areas before it moves on and we have a variably cloudy and relatively mild day. Meanwhile, storm #1 is an ocean storm evolving south of New England. The general idea with this system is that it would be too far offshore for much of an impact, and that will be the case, but it will be close enough to throw the northwestern edge of its precipitation shield into far southeastern New England, certainly Cape Cod and the Islands, and possibly as far northwest as the South Shore of MA to eastern RI, and maybe right up to about Boston briefly. This will be mostly in the form of rain as the atmosphere will be generally too warm to support snow, but it may turn just cold enough to mix with or change to snow before it ends from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. While the storm is intensifying offshore it will create a stronger pressure gradient with high pressure north of the Great Lakes, and a northeast to north wind will be increase during Friday with some pretty strong gusts especially along the coast and across Cape Cod. A cold front from the northwest will slip through quietly during all of this but it will be opening the door for another shot of arctic air Friday night and Saturday, at which time some Cape Cod snow showers are likely, where there may be some accumulation. Elsewhere, the cold shot will be met with dry weather. After a more tranquil but cold Sunday, our attention turns to a storm system coming along from the southwest that will impact the region on Monday (MLK Jr Day). There is still some spread across various guidance as to where this storm will track, with possibilities ranging from as far east as near the “benchmark” (40N/70W) just southeast of New England, to as far west as Pennsylvania and NY State. I’m not ready to commit to a track, but my leaning is one that takes the center near or just west of the WHW forecast area, which if is the case, would be a snow to rain (mix well inland) situation. This can still change, and we have a number of days to nail it down. It will likely be a fast-moving system, but I’ll also try to nail down the hour-by-hour aspects as we get much closer to its actual occurrence here.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a little light snow across far northern MA and southern NH this morning. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with a period of rain Cape Cod / Islands that may end as mix, and a chance of a period of rain that may end as mix/snow from the MA South Shore to eastern RI. Breaking clouds later. Highs 35-42 by midday. Temperatures falling later in the day. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower anywhere but snow showers likely Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 South Coast. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often well below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy with possible snow showers outer Cape Cod. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-8 except 9-14 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow overnight. Temperatures rise to 30s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely, ending by late. Highs 38-45. Wind SE to variable 10-20 MPH, stronger gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Watch for a couple addition but probably weaker systems to bring mostly minor precipitation threats with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Temperatures near to below normal and additional opportunities for wintry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – January 13 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

We’ve made it through the brief but sharp shot of arctic air, and today the temperature will indicate our recovery as it rises above freezing in most of our region, but you’ll need a little patience as it’ll take some time. While it’s already in the 20s to around 30 over Cape Cod with even a few spotty flurries in the area as milder air starts to move in, it’s in the 10s for most of us, but as an uneventful warm front goes by and a south to southwest breeze takes over, we’ll see that temperature rise take place, even with some increase in cloud cover at times. That milder feel to the air will last through Thursday as well, but we’ll still have to deal with a fair amount of cloudiness at times as there will be more moisture in the middle atmosphere. A weak disturbance and a frontal boundary coming along from the northwest may create a touch of light snow Thursday evening, but this will be a minor event at best. During this time an ocean storm will be strengthening south and southeast of New England, and is expected to be mainly a miss, but be close enough to throw its precipitation shield across far southeastern New England with some rain for Cape Cod and the Islands and a bit of rain/snow for the South Shore and possibly down to eastern RI. This would take place mostly during the first half of the day on Friday. Later Friday, as that storm moves away, it will help pull down another shot of arctic air from eastern Canada which will be with us Friday night and Saturday. When we get to Sunday, it will moderate slightly but still expecting a cold day. We’ll be keeping an eye on another storm system to our southwest as it approaches with clouds moving back in during Sunday. More about this system in the next section after the 5-day forecast.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow flurries. Lows 20-27. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with a period of rain Cape Cod / Islands that may end as mix, and a chance of a period of rain and/or snow from the MA South Shore to eastern RI. Breaking clouds later. Highs 35-42 by midday. Temperatures falling later in the day. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, especially in coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower anywhere but snow showers likely Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 South Coast. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy with possible snow showers outer Cape Cod. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-8 except 9-14 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

Watching a storm for MLK Jr Day January 17. Guidance has trended west with the track of this system during the last several runs but the track of the storm is still highly in question, so best wording is rain/mix/snow likely with gusty wind. Dry, colder January 18-19. A weaker system may bring a precipitation threat later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

We remain in a pattern where we are vulnerable to storminess with near to below normal temperatures into late January.

C-19 Chat Post – January 12 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

Some areas received a coating of snow in the pre-dawn hours from snow showers and snow squalls as an arctic cold front made its way southward across the region. Some of these snow showers continue over southeastern MA at dawn but will be moving out soon, although a few additional snow showers may occur near the outer portion of Cape Cod today due to the arctic air flowing over the relatively warm ocean water nearby. We have one more very cold night on tap tonight before high pressure shifts offshore Wednesday and a warm front moves through with an increase in cloud cover but also a warm-up, with the temperature going above freezing for most as a milder southwesterly air flow takes over. A couple disturbances will pass by the region, one to the north Wednesday night and another probably to the south of us Thursday night as that frontal boundary slips back through as a cold front, but other than a brief episode of light snow with either of these, not really expecting much to happen. The energy will help ignite an ocean storm south of New England Thursday into Friday, the bulk of which will pass offshore, but it may be close enough to throw a period of snow/mix into the Cape Cod area for a while on Friday. We’ll need to keep an eye on this system just in case it ends up further northwest than currently expected. Either way, its movement into the Canadian Maritimes will help drawn down another brief shot of arctic air for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Early morning clouds and a few snow showers southeastern MA and eastern RI, and occasional clouds and snow showers outer Cape Cod through at least midday, otherwise sunny. Highs 7-14. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0, as low as -15 at times.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -1 to +6. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill -5 to -15 evening.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow flurries possible. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow flurries. Lows 20-27. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers southeastern MA and chance of snow/mix Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 28-35.Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Lows 8-15. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

Watching two potential storm systems to impact the region with wintry precipitation during this period, focusing on January 16 and January 18. Low confidence forecast due to uncertain guidance, but the pattern supports this. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

Similar pattern – watching for a couple potential precipitation threats. Temperatures near to below normal. No details possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – January 11 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

One cold front has passed by and introduced windy and colder weather to our region, and that will be the theme of today with generally dry weather. However, another cold front is on the way, an arctic one, and this one passes through the region later today through early tonight. While this front may trigger snow showers and squalls for some of us, it will bring in a blast of bitterly cold air for all of us on Tuesday. This is one feature that most of the guidance has actually done pretty well forecasting several days in advance, so kudos to the guidance I guess! I’m still not trusting most guidance out beyond a couple to a few days though. It’s already had varying solutions just over the last couple days for the evolution and movement of an ocean storm east of the Mid Atlantic and south southeast of New England later this week. Before we get to that, however, as we start to moderate out of the arctic air, a couple disturbances will bring some episodes of cloudiness to the region and maybe a touch of light snow later Wednesday and later Thursday. By the time we get to Friday, the ocean storm should be cranking out there at sea, and while I feel it will be far enough away for no direct impact with its precipitation shield, a northeasterly air flow between it and high pressure to our north by Friday may create a period of snow showers across southeastern portions of the WHW forecast area – something to monitor and fine tune as the week goes on. Even after we moderate from tomorrow’s bitter blast, we’ll still run on the colder side of normal through the week, the first extended stretch of cold we’ve had in quite a while.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 24-31. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with isolated to scattered snow showers and snow squalls, some of which can briefly cause very low visibility, strong wind gusts, and quick coatings of snow with hazardous travel. Clearing overnight. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -5 to -15.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 7-14. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -1 to +6. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill -5 to -15 evening.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Lows 20-27. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers southeastern MA. Highs 28-35.Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

Watching two potential storm systems to impact the region with wintry precipitation during this period, focusing on the January 15-16 weekend (especially later Saturday into Sunday) and later January 17 into January 18. Low confidence forecast due to uncertain guidance, but the pattern supports this. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

Similar pattern – watching for a couple potential precipitation threats. Temperatures near to below normal. No details possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – January 10 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

It’s an active pattern now after winter’s so-called “slow start”, which wasn’t really a slow start, it was just kind of typical for a La Nina pattern, and so is what we’re about to experience, just a little different from what we had. After our recent snow, we had a beautiful winter’s day on Saturday with lots of sun, a diminishing wind, and cold that was tolerable without wind. Today, as the atmosphere tries to warm up, and a low pressure system passes to our north sending precipitation our way, it’s warming up enough aloft so that precipitation is going to be falling as raindrops or melting from snowflakes into raindrops as it exits its birthing region in the middle troposphere. From there it will fall into colder air closer to the ground. It’s going to reach the surface in the form of rain for most, although the cold air may be thick enough to freeze it into ice pellets (sleet) over some interior areas for a while this morning. In a large portion of the region away from the immediate coast, the temperatures sit below freezing (from the upper 20s to very low 30s) as the initial batches of rain will be moving in from west to east. This spells freezing rain, and will create slippery conditions on untreated surfaces. Eventually, the surface temperatures will warm enough to eliminate this issue, but it may take several hours to do so, until a warm front gets by our area and the surfaces temperatures warm sufficiently to the upper 30s to near 40 later today. In the mean time, if you plan to be out driving or walking, keep in mind that untreated surface may be glazed with ice that is difficult to see. And tonight, once we get the cold front through, our rain threat ends, but cold air comes in quickly and again any wet and untreated surfaces will return to their icy state, being a factor later tonight as well as tomorrow until they can be treated or dry off (sublimate) enough. Tomorrow’s weather will be mainly fair, but windy and on the cold side, however this will be nothing compared to the air mass that arrives tomorrow evening with an arctic cold front, possibly announced by some snow showers and snow squalls. I’ll fine-tune that threat on the next update to the best of my ability. Squalls or no squalls though, that air mass means business, bold and cold, and Tuesday’s temperatures will struggle to be above 10 for most of us during the day, with wind chills well below zero. When we moderate back to the 20s Wednesday and the 30s Thursday, it may feel like a veritable heatwave in comparison. We’ll also have to watch a weak disturbance or two coming along from the Great Lakes / Midwest by midweek for some minor light snow threats, but these don’t look too impressive to me at the moment.

TODAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain possibly mixed with sleet this morning, with freezing rain away from the coast eventually transitioning to non-freezing rain later in the day. Highs 36-43 occurring late in the day, except 43-50 Cape Cod. Wind calm early, then S up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening including a chance of rain showers South Coast / Cape Cod. Clearing overnight. Black ice formation on untreated surfaces. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 15 at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers / squalls evening. Clear overnight. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill -5 to -15.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 8-15. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +5. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill -5 to -15 evening.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow late-day. Highs 22-29. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow possible. Lows 15-22. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

We enter a period of vulnerability to be impacted by first a storm over the ocean to our south, and second a low pressure area moving this way from the Midwest. It’s far too early to tell if we’ll be directly impacted by either or both of these threats, but it is something we should pay close attention to. Temperatures during this period will run below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)

Basically the situation of the previous period is expected to continue this period as well, with us in a pattern that’s vulnerable to cold and some threat of wintry precipitation. As you have already heard countless times, we can’t just look at run-to-run model guidance to try to pin point which days carry the highest threats and what might happen in each location. You know the drill by now – just something to watch and fine-tune things with time.