C-19 Chat Post – January 9 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

After a snow event that over-produced in some areas yesterday, thanks to that good old synoptic banding, we get to enjoy a day of wall-to-wall sunshine today, but it will start out with a biting breeze as we are still between our departing storm, now a stronger low heading out of the Canadian Maritimes into the North Atlantic, and high pressure approaching from the Great Lakes. But as this high center moves closer, winds will drop off during the day. If you are planning to travel by foot or wheels, especially this morning, keep in mind that any surfaces that were wet or slushy at the end of the day yesterday have frozen solid, and the smoother ones where a cleaner sheet of ice can form are especially hazardous. And we may be adding to the ground ice hazard in some locations on Sunday. After our nice day today, clouds will be moving in tonight ahead of a warm front that extends from low pressure that will be tracking north of us later on Sunday. Periods of rain moving in with this front will fall as freezing rain in some areas away from the coast which remain below freezing for part of the day, if not most of it. We finally get into the warm sector for a while later in the day when all areas should spend some time above freezing, with improvement in icy areas. However, this time our “warm-up” is to be short-lived. A cold front will come through here on Sunday night setting us up for a colder and breezy Monday, which will be generally dry. However, an arctic cold front will be charging through the region late in the day through early evening, and may trigger some snow showers and snow squalls. Whether or not these occur, what will definitely occur is a bitter blast of arctic air from Monday night through Tuesday night. Temperature moderation takes place Wednesday, though it will still be cold, and we’ll see clouds arrive with a weak low pressure area approaching via the Great Lakes that may result in some light snowfall if it has enough moisture.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts morning, diminishing afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20 evening, rising into the 20s overnight. Wind calm evening, S up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Early sun possible especially eastern coastal locations, otherwise mainly cloudy. Scattered rain with pockets of freezing rain inland late morning and midday. Chance of rain showers all areas later in the afternoon. Highs 36-43 occurring late in the day. Wind S up to 10 MPH morning, SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening including a chance of rain showers South Coast / Cape Cod. Clearing overnight. Black ice formation on untreated surfaces. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 15 at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers / squalls evening. Clear overnight. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill -5 to -15.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 8-15. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -2 to +5. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing. Wind chill -5 to -15 evening.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow late-day. Highs 22-29. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

Expecting generally below normal temperatures during this period. Watching for an ocean storm to evolve early to mid period that earliest indications show will remain at sea, but this type of pattern can set up an onshore flow that in a cold pattern can lead to ocean-effect snow showers. Watching another system for potential wintry weather impact near the end of the period but confidence is far lower on that.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)

Expecting generally below normal temperatures to continue for this period. General pattern looks on the dry side but can’t rule out 1 or 2 wintry precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – January 8 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 7-11)

A quick-hitting but potent snowstorm this morning, especially under a solid synoptic band of heavy snow that sits right over Metro Boston extending south southwest and north northeast around the back side of strengthening low pressure as it passes by to the southeast. For many it’s a fluffy snow, which helps the amounts add up more, but keeps it from being heavy/wet. Wetter snow is confined to the Cape Cod region with some rain mixing in on Nantucket, where amounts will be lightest, building up to heaviest in eastern MA and RI, then dropping off as you head northwest to north central MA and southwestern NH (a similar profile to the previously mentioned amounts, which will be heavier than previously mentioned). The storm winds down this afternoon and is gone tonight. Fair and cold due to Canadian high pressure Saturday. A warm-up Sunday, but still cold enough that if rain showers arriving from the west are early enough there may be some icing over the interior. That will be from a cold front that will introduce much colder air for Monday and a secondary front that will bring in a blast of pure arctic air for Tuesday. Generally dry weather is expected those days with the exception of a possible snow squall with the arrival of Arctic air Monday evening. We’ll focus more on that after we get by this current system.

TODAY: Cloudy through midday with snow of 6 to 12 inches (maximum amounts northwestern RI to Metro Boston to Cape Ann), except 3 to 6 inches mid Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard and 1-3 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket with rain mixed in, and under 6 inches in north central MA and southwestern NH. Breaking clouds and a glimpse of sun possible later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH over Cape Cod and the Islands.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill often near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early sun then mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow I-95 eastward, and snow/sleet showers possibly mixed with freezing rain then eventually west of I-95, mostly midday and afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 15 at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers / squalls evening. Clear overnight. Lows 8-13. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 0.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 12-19. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

A couple of weak low pressure systems bring threats of snow or snow showers but overall pattern is cold and on the dry side.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Overall pattern looks colder than average with a couple of snowfall threats possible, but generally drier than normal.

C-19 Chat Post – January 7 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 6-10)

If you are walking or driving on untreated surfaces early to mid morning, there are some icy spots mostly in the I-95 area westward as it was cold enough overnight to freeze the moisture on surface left behind by rainfall. High pressure brings dry and seasonably chilly air to our region today. Friday, we will see our first widespread significant snow of the season, a moderate and short-duration event as low pressure scoots northeastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast and passes southeast of New England in the process of heading toward the Canadian Maritimes. This low pressure area will be in the process of intensifying as it races by, so we’ll likely see some banding of heavier snowfall in a general area of light to moderate snow. Despite some inflated shorter range model numbers on recent runs, I’m not going to make any real changes to my preliminary outlook from yesterday other than some minor tweaks. Behind this system, expect a dry and cold day Saturday, then a quick moderation Sunday but along with the threat of some light precipitation (rain showers coast, mix or snow showers inland) moving through as low pressure passes north of the region and we see its warm front / cold front combination go by us. This will introduce a colder air mass for Monday as dry weather returns.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arriving pre-dawn. Lows 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow of 3 to 6 inches, except 1 to 3 inches mid Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard where some rain mixes in and up to 1 inch outer Cape Cod and Nantucket where more rain falls, and pockets of over 6 inches possible favoring interior southeastern MA / RI, and also some sub-3-inch amounts possible in north central MA and southwestern NH. Breaking clouds and a glimpse of sun possible later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH over Cape Cod and the Islands.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill often near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early sun then mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow I-95 eastward, and snow/sleet showers possibly mixed with rain west of I-95, mostly midday and afternoon. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 15 at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated late-day snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

One-day shot of bitterly cold air January 11. A couple of weak low pressure systems bring threats of snow or snow showers (maybe some mix) thereafter, but too early for details on any precipitation threats.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Overall pattern looks colder than average with a couple of snowfall threats possible, but generally drier than normal.

C-19 Chat Post – January 6 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

High pressure is now east of our region and a warm front is passing through this morning. A combination of increasing mid level moisture and low level moisture will result in patchy drizzle and scattered to numerous rain showers from this morning through early afternoon. While the precipitation will be the most spotty over the interior (west of I-95), some of it can fall as freezing drizzle/rain this morning while temperatures are still below freezing, creating slippery travel on untreated surfaces. Temperatures will rise sufficiently to put an end to any problems by noon. East of I-95, there’s no icing threat, but that is where rain showers will be most numerous with even a heavier shower possible in some locations. The mild air of today will be short-lived, as a cold front will cross the region this evening and return a colder air mass to us. Thursday will see fair weather thanks to a small area of high pressure, but a low pressure area emerging off the Mid Atlantic Coast will move quickly northeastward, passing southeast of New England, bringing a widespread snowfall to the region Thursday night and Friday. The progressive pattern and slow strengthening of this low will prevent it from being a major snowstorm for our area, but it will be the first widespread appreciable snowfall of the season. Mixing with rain over outer Cape Cod through Martha’s Vineyard may hold down snowfall amounts there, and even more so on Nantucket, as the ocean water temperatures are still rather warm to prevent such influence. Also, lighter precipitation amounts will keep snowfall accumulations on the lower side as you head north and west of Boston. The current call on the “jackpot area” for snowfall is Boston’s southern suburbs and interior areas of southeastern MA that combine the heaviest precipitation with snow-supporting temperatures – but even there, not a major snowstorm. The fast movement of this system essentially makes it about a 10 hour event, from pre-dawn to early afternoon Friday, and we may even see breaks of sun before Friday is over. Expect fair and seasonably cold weather Saturday to very early Sunday before the next low pressure system impacts the region later Sunday. This one is more likely to be tracking north of our region, allowing a warm up and bringing the chance of rain showers.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and rain showers early through mid morning with some icing possible on untreated surfaces mostly west of I-95. Scattered to numerous rain showers, most numerous southeastern MA especially Cape Cod, mid through late morning. Highs 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming SW 5-15 MPH inland and 10-20 MPH coast with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Snow arriving pre-dawn southwest to northeast. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NE.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow likely (may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands), accumulating 2-6 inches, heaviest interior southeastern MA. Breaking clouds and partial sun possible later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas, shifting to NW later in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early sun then mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

Shot of arctic air early next week. Moderating temperatures but the chance of some unsettled weather later next week. More details to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

Overall pattern looks colder than average with a couple of snowfall threats possible, but generally drier than normal.

C-19 Chat Post – January 5 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

Our pattern while similar in terms of activity starts to trend colder as we pierce January. One would expect this as we head toward the heart of winter as well as little further away from a pattern that kept us so mild. But we’re not done with mild air quite yet. You may not feel that way if you step outside this morning where many places sit below 20. First, we will have a bright and cold day today, the first day with substantial sun since December 23. High pressure will provide this for us, and it won’t be as cold as yesterday was, though still chilly – with temperatures climbing into the 30s. High pressure shifts offshore and low pressure passes north of the region Wednesday – a mild day that turns wet. A cold front will charge through the area Wednesday night returning a seasonable chill to us by Thursday. This sets up a wintry precipitation threat for Friday as low pressure takes aim at the Northeast. Model guidance is still showing a fairly large spread of outcomes, not only in the low pressure’s track, development, and intensity, but in snowfall amounts for the region. For example, through midday Friday, model snowfall output for Boston range from nothing at all to just under 1 foot of snow. Ah, so the accumulation is going to be 0 to 12 inches? Sure. That’s one way to look at it, but not the right way. The right way to look at it is that it’s still too soon to talk numbers. I’ll go no further than just saying that the higher probability, based on how I think the pattern will help this play out, is a light to moderate snowfall for the majority of the region. But there are still questions to be answered and fine tuning to do. Behind this system comes a cold and dry day to start the weekend on Saturday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief sleet possible northern MA southern NH early morning. Chance of rain showers midday-afternoon, favoring eastern areas. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix likely. Highs 34-41. Wind variable 10-20 mostly E to N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

Systems may bring precipitation later January 9 into January 10, with another threat later in the period. Overall temperature trend is colder.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Trend continues to be for near to below normal temperatures near on the drier side of normal for precipitation but active enough that a couple snow/mix threats can occur.

C-19 Chat Post – January 4 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

Low pressure moving rapidly northeastward will pass southeast of New England today. With cold air in place, the northern edge of its precipitation shield will be in the form of snow and bring an accumulating snowfall to the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard and a minor accumulation to the immediate South Coast of New England during the day today. We may also see some coatings of snow on the MA South Shore due to some ocean effect snow shower bands that may set up there as the day goes on. This will also be our coldest day we’ve seen in quite some time with pretty much the entire region failing to reach freezing and many areas staying in the 20s. The exception is Cape Cod and the Islands which sit just above freezing as of sunrise but will see the temperatures go down a few degrees during the day with the help of snow falling into air that is drying out at the surface resulting in cooling. The temperatures will moderate to a more seasonable chill on Tuesday as high pressure brings fair weather. This high slides offshore and moisture streams northward ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday, parented by low pressure that will pass north of our region by early Thursday. So Wednesday will be unsettled but mild, and Thursday will turn fair and cooler as the cold front pushes offshore. We’ve been watching the late week period for a storm threat, and as is to be expected, model guidance is all over the place solutions, so for now I’ll just keep the idea of unsettled weather with a chance of some snow/mix/rain for Friday, then fine-tune as we go along this week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible MA South Shore with dustings. A period of snow South Coast and Cape Cod (accumulating a coating to 2 inches) and the islands (accumulating 2 to 5 inches, heaviest on Nantucket). Highs 25-32 except as high as 35 Cape Cod / Islands early day. Wind NW to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill often below 10.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow/mix/rain. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

Fast-moving systems. Fair/cold January 8, milder January 9, next frontal system brings chance of mix/rain showers later January 9 to early January 10, fair and colder to follow, and another disturbance may approach late period. This is not a high confidence forecasts with unreliable guidance, mainly developed due to pattern anticipation / timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Mid January trends continue to look a little cold, and questions remain as to our snow chances, as it looks a little on the drier side, but this remains a very low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – January 3 2022

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)

This second day of 2022 will be a transition day. We’ll be heading out of our mild and wet spell that started the year off and toward our first significant cold shot in a while. A cold front will cross the region during the day today into this evening. While we start out with abundant low level moisture, producing lots of drizzle and fog, the only real rainfall around early this morning is over Nantucket which sits on the northern edge of a solid swath of rain to the south, pretty much all of it to miss New England during today. Instead, we’ll see some rain showers try to move in from the north and west with the cold front, but at the same time the available moisture will be decreasing, so the greatest chance for these showers is north of Boston, in northeastern MA and southern NH. By the time the temperature has dropped enough to support snow showers, most of the moisture will be gone, but I’ll leave the slight chance in the forecast tonight in case we see a few stray flakes make it into the WHW forecast area. This leads us to a one-day shot of very cold air for Monday, while a wave of low pressure travels rapidly northeastward, passing southeast of New England, far enough to spare the region a snowstorm, but close enough so that some flakes may visit Cape Cod and the Islands enough to accumulate a little bit, including with a little ocean enhancement, and some flakes in the air may get as far north as Boston for a brief period of time, but this is far less likely with the very dry air that will be in place. This is also potentially the set-up for a good sunset, depending on the timing and placement of the edge of the cloud shield, so photographers, be on stand-by for that, just in case. Snow or not, good sunset or not, it will be cold Monday through Tuesday morning – something we’ve not had to contend with much this young winter season. And like other times, the cold shot will be fleeting with moderating temperatures heading toward the middle of the week. Fair weather is expected Tuesday with high pressure in control, and then low pressure will pass northwest of the region on Wednesday, its warm front / cold front combo bringing us some unsettled weather. Drier and cooler air will follow this for Thursday.

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle, some rain Nantucket, during the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA, this afternoon. Highs 44-51 occurring in the morning then falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind W to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing light snow shower possible, favoring northern MA and southern NH. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. wind chill below 20.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy but some filtered sun north and west of Boston. Chance of snow with minor accumulation (up to an inch or two) favoring Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 27-34. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill often below 10.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47 in the morning, then turning cooler. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)

A storm system passing by, probably just to the southeast, will bring the chance of some snow/mix January 7 followed by fair and cold weather for the January 8-9 weekend. Slight moderation and another precipitation threat later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)

Mid January has a colder look to it, and some questions remain as to our snow chances, as it looks a little on the drier side, but this remains a low confidence forecast.

C-19 Chat Post – January 2 2022