DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

As we end March and begin April, we’ll be impacted by low pressure moving east northeastward and passing north of our region. First, its warm front is moving through early this morning and has produced some spotty light rain/sleet over portions of southern NH which is now moving out. During today we’ll see warmer air moving into the region from south to north, although the South Coast will experience its ocean-modified cooler temperatures with a southerly breeze. There will be lots of clouds but only a few isolated rain showers, with most of the region rain-free during the day. This evening, however, as a cold front starts to approach from the west, we’ll see an increase in rain shower activity, and during a few hours of later evening to early overnight there may be some downpours around and even some embedded thunderstorms. This makes an early Friday morning exit leaving Friday as a fairly mild and mostly rain-free day with a sun/cloud mix, but a chance of a rain shower during the afternoon as a secondary cold front approaches. It is behind this front that we will see legitimate drying and cooling with an increase in wind for Friday night through Saturday. Sunday’s weather has been a bit of a thorn bush to navigate in figuring it out. Low pressure or high pressure in control? That is the question. Well, it does look like we’ll have a fairly weak and moisture-starved low pressure area moving into the region from the west, but right now I’m leaning toward this being more of a cloud producer than a precipitation event, although there may be some spotty light rainfall around at times, favoring the second half of the day and the nighttime hours. This system will likely redevelop offshore, but with the fairly weak and quick-moving nature of the system, any redevelopment would most likely bring brief steadier rain to the South Coast before exiting and leaving us with a sun/cloud mix between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure on Monday. There will still be some fine-tuning needed for Sunday-Monday…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Highs 56-63, except cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers likely including a few downpours and possible thunder, mainly late evening to overnight, diminishing toward dawn. Lows 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, gusting frequently 25-35 MPH and occasionally above 35 MPH, shifting to W overnight.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Rain showers possible favoring eastern areas around dawn. Passing rain showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Spotty light rain possible afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring the South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)

Unsettled weather potential is highest in the April 6-8 period based on current timing and expected pattern, which will feature variable temperatures in a battle zone between southeastern US warmth and Canadian cold.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)

Overall pattern similar, typical springtime battle zone. Unsettled weather seems likely at some point, favoring mid period.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-31-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

It’s been cold, and March isn’t going to end that way, but with a temperature up-swing and a return to some unsettled weather. This will be the result of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes tonight and Thursday then into southeastern Canada by Thursday night. An area of high pressure bringing us fair weather and a chilly day today will shift off to the south, and the approaching low’s warm front will then move into our area tonight and through the region on Thursday. It may be preceded by a period of precipitation, which may fall as snow and/or sleet in some areas west and north of Boston, before it moves through and we warm up on Thursday. But by later Thursday, we’ll already be seeing the approach of the low’s cold front, and with plenty of moisture in place, in contrast to our very dry air now, we’ll have numerous showers in the region, even the potential for some downpours which may contain thunder. This sweeps offshore overnight and a good portion of Friday, while breezy, will feature a sun/cloud mix and fairly mild air to start off the month of April. Another rain shower is possible as a secondary cold front moves through during the afternoon or evening. This will lead to a cooler and breezy but fair weather day for Saturday. I’d been optimistic that high pressure would hold off any unsettled weather through the weekend, but a lot of guidance indicates the next system may be here as early as Sunday with more clouds and at least a minor threat of some rain shower activity, so I am leaning this way now…

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early then variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow/sleet/rain possible, frozen most likely north and west of Boston, during the evening. Lows 30-37. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of passing rain showers, becoming more likely by evening. Highs 56-63, except cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain showers likely including the potential for downpours and embedded thunder. Breaking clouds overnight but still the chance of passing rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, gusting up to 30 MPH, shifting to W overnight.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Rain showers possible favoring eastern areas around dawn. Passing rain showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Late-day rain shower chance. Highs 51-58. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)

Unsettled weather potential is highest in the April 5-7 period based on current timing and expected pattern, which will feature variable temperatures in a battle zone between southeastern US warmth and Canadian cold.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)

Overall pattern similar, typical springtime battle zone. Unsettled weather seems likely at some point, favoring mid or late period.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-30-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

We’re still immersed in an early spring cold-snap today, but we’ll be seeing it come to an end soon after one more gusty and chilly day today, albeit with more sun than yesterday, and one cold night tonight. Clouds move in Wednesday ahead of a warm front from a low pressure system heading for the Great Lakes. The low will move through the Northeast Wednesday night through Friday. Precipitation generated by the approaching warm front can be in the form of snow and/or sleet Wednesday night as the atmosphere will still be cold. Eventually, the warm front should push through on Thursday, but the low’s cold front should not be that far behind and will bring rain showers as it moves in from the west later Thursday and Thursday night, into early Friday before it pushes offshore. Friday itself will still be fairly mild ahead of a secondary cold front which will usher in cooler and drier air for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 19-26. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially late-day. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-7)

Fair weather dominates April 3-5 though a weak disturbance may bring some clouds and brief rain around April 4. Better chance for unsettled weather toward the end of the period (middle of next week).

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 8-12)

Early and late period stand better chances of unsettled weather in a somewhat active pattern. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-29-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Upper level low pressure, a piece of “polar vortex” brings us a cold air mass to start out this week. Snow showers are ushering in the coldest air for parts of the region as we start the day today, and there may be a few additional snow flurries during the day as we see a gusty northwesterly wind, lots of clouds, limited sun, and high temperatures that will challenge record low maximum temperatures for the day. Surface high pressure will still be west of us on Tuesday, and with low pressure spinning over eastern Canada we’ll continue in a chilly northwesterly air flow, though it will be up a few to several degrees over today, and with more sunshine at a much higher sun angle in late March it will feel nicer despite the breeze and chill. High pressure moves over us Tuesday night which will be quite cold again as a clear sky and lighter wind allow good radiating. Clouds move in Wednesday ahead of a warm front from a low pressure system heading for the Great Lakes. Much like a system we saw recently, this broad low pressure circulation will move through the Northeast late this week. Precipitation generated by the approaching warm front can be in the form of snow and/or sleet Wednesday night as the atmosphere will still be cold. Eventually, the warm front should push through on Thursday, but the low’s cold front should not be that far behind and will bring rain showers as it moves in from the west later Thursday and Thursday night, into early Friday before it pushes offshore. But the air behind that front is not really going to be that cold initially, so Friday itself will be on the mild side to start April, with a sun / cloud mix and still a lingering rain shower possible.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, few intervals of sun. Snow showers with minor accumulation around early morning, especially southern NH / eastern MA, and a chance of a passing snow flurry at any other time during the day. Highs 29-36, coldest in the higher elevations southwestern NH / central MA. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 19-26. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially late-day. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)

High pressure builds in with fair weather but cooler for the April 2-3 weekend. We may have to watch for a disturbance with a period of precipitation on April 4 followed by dry weather April 5 then another precipitation threat at the end of the period, but confidence on that part of the forecast remains low.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)

Forecast confidence remains low heading toward mid April too, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring the early part of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)

The last 5 days of March will contain a variety of weather. Let’s sort it out. Upper level low pressure spins over the region while drifting eastward during the next few days. Today, other than some patchy cloudiness near the MA South Coast and back over the hills of north central MA to southwestern NH, the balance of the region has dawned with a clear sky, but this won’t last, as cold air aloft will help trigger diurnal cloud development and those clouds will become dominant by midday onward. Today’s atmosphere is not quite as unstable as yesterday’s, so the chance of convective shower development is lower, but some of them that do form while being mainly rain showers may also contain wet snow and even graupel (rimed snowflakes). We’ll be cooler than yesterday as well, but the real cold air arrives tonight, with a cold front, which may bring a few snow showers, then a blast of blustery weather through Monday, a day that will feature a lot of clouds and maybe a few snow flurries, and also have a wind chill as high temps in the 30s often feel like 20s or even upper 10s at times. Tuesday, we ease the wind and lose a lot of the clouds but keep a chill as a northwesterly air flow continues between high pressure to our west and low pressure over eastern Canada. The high center will finally nudge eastward enough to allow the wind to diminish later Tuesday into Wednesday, but a warm front will be approaching on Wednesday and we’ll see the cloud cover increase from that. With enough lingering cold around, this front may generate frozen precipitation for parts of the region Wednesday night. I’m cautiously optimistic that the front will push through for a milder day Thursday, but this will come with a price which will be rain showers as a cold front approaches from the west – an unsettled end to the month.

TODAY: Mostly sunny start, then variably to mostly cloudy midday on. Isolated showers of rain and possible graupel and/or wet snow afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts likely.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of passing snow flurries. Highs 34-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)

Upper level low pressure is expected to cross the region from west to east over the first few days of April with a transition from mild to cooler, but the greatest chance of any rainfall on April 1 followed by a drier April 2-3 weekend. We may have to watch for a disturbance with a period of precipitation on April 4 followed by dry weather April 5 but confidence on that part of the forecast is much lower.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)

Forecast confidence remains low, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring April 6-8.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-27-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)

An upper level low pressure system will be the primary driver of our weather over the next few days. This means that our weekend, while unsettled, won’t be anything near a wash-out (or snow-out), but we can and likely will see the development of showers and even some thunderstorms (with possible hail) later today, and the redevelopment of some rain and possible graupel showers and eventually snow showers later Sunday as a trend to colder weather progresses. That cold will arrive in force Sunday night into early next week. Monday will still feature some instability so that we can see a few snow flurries in the region from passing clouds despite plenty of bright sun, and a wind that will make it feel more like January at times despite March’s high sun angle. The coldest temperatures of this stretch likely occur with Tuesday morning’s lows, with a modest recovery to several degrees over Monday’s highs that day, but with lots of sun and a little less wind helping to make the recovery seem a little greater. By Wednesday, while still in the chilly air, we’ll have lighter wind as the low pressure that had been impacting us forever finally lifts away, but just in time for a warm front to approach with increasing clouds and an evening precipitation threat which may include some of the frozen variety…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered mid to late afternoon showers and possible thunderstorms, with the potential for brief downpours and even some small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a lingering rain shower possible early, then partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers midday and afternoon, with late-day showers potentially containing graupel. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/sleet/rain at night. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

There is a lot of uncertainty in this period and obviously impossible for details this far out, but right now the scenario I see as most likely is low pressure passing northwest of our region March 31 with a warm front struggling to move through, and unsettled weather for the final day of the month, and then starting out unsettled and cool with upper level low pressure in the region April 1-2 (much like our current pattern), with hope for a brief warm-up and fair weather to finish the first weekend of April before we eye more unsettled weather by the end of the period. A lot of fine-tuning will be needed for this forecast in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)

Forecast confidence remains rather low, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring the middle of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-26-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)

Surface low pressure moves away today, but upper level low pressure is going to take its time crossing the Northeast from west to east during the next 5 days, during which time you’ll see a transition from mild to cold, with a few episodes of unsettled weather, and finally some dry weather. Today, as the storm of yesterday departs, the air mass is fairly mild, so a drying westerly wind will make for a nice day as we break the clouds for more sun, but never totally lose the clouds as the air above turns colder. This may help pop a few rain showers later today to early this evening. Saturday, it will be slightly cooler but still relatively mild at the surface, but colder still above us, making the atmosphere a little more unstable, so by later in the day a few more showers and even a thunderstorms may pop up, with the possibility of brief downpours and even small hail in some of them. Sunday, we continue the downward trend in temperatures both surface and aloft, and that atmosphere will still be unstable enough to potentially produce a few diurnal showers of rain, and by late-day and evening graupel and snow showers may occur as it is finally cold enough. When the coldest air arrives early next week, we’ll have a gusty wind and the chance of a few snow showers Monday as it is still somewhat unstable, then finally dry weather with plenty of sunshine by Tuesday.

TODAY: Clouds, patchy fog, and a potential sprinkle or some drizzle early, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of a rain shower by late afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A mid to late afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible, with the potential for brief downpours and even some small hail. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers midday and afternoon, with late-day showers potentially containing graupel. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

Warm front approaches March 30 with clouds moving in, and a chance of rain at night that may start as snow and/or sleet for some locations. May get a quick warm-up March 31 before cold front comes by and returns colder air for the first couple days of April with some unsettled weather as well, and then lower confidence of dry weather and maybe a brief warm up at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)

Continued low confidence forecast. Up and down temperatures, leaning toward cooler than normal, with episodes of unsettled weather between Canadian cold and southeastern US warmth.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-25-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 24-28)

Low pressure out in the Great Lakes has occluded and its frontal system swings out and around to the Northeast, with us on the cool side of a frontal boundary, which is where we will stay as the low redevelops at its frontal triple-point and that low travels northeastward just east of Cape Cod tonight and early Friday. Most of the sleet and any pockets of freezing rain are pretty much done with over interior locations and from here its just rain, in two main surges, one this morning and another one this evening and tonight to early Friday morning. Some thunderstorms may even take place from very late this afternoon into tonight over RI and eastern MA as the atmosphere will be rather unstable. Once the newly developed low moves beyond our latitude Friday morning our wind will switch to westerly and we’ll dry out, and also warm up as the air mass behind this system is not cold at all initially. It will not be until we have upper level low pressure cross the Northeast over the weekend and a trough and a front go by, with some unsettled weather, that we will see colder air finally work in, and once it does, you’ll feel it. Monday will remind you of winter with its gusty breeze and below normal temperatures, creating wind chills in the vicinity of freezing despite bright late March sunshine.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Periods of rain, steadiest this morning, returning to RI and eastern MA late-day including the chance of thunder. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Rain likely with a chance of thunder, especially RI and eastern MA. Lows 38-45. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain and patchy fog, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind NW-W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers evening. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

Dry with below normal temperatures March 29. Back into a batttle zone between cold to the north and warmth to the south with unsettled weather in the March 30 to April 1 time frame. Fair weather may return late period, but low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 3-7)

A very low confidence forecast here. Likely some up and down in the temperature, but leaning toward cooler overall with additional unsettled weather. Medium range guidance is conflicted and we know it will still be cold in Canada and warm in the southeastern US, so likely some sort of battle goes on.