C-19 Chat Post – 3-24-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)

High pressure tries to hang on today and does so enough to start us out with sunshine and lighter wind, but the sun will lose the battle eventually to advancing clouds as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This low will redevelop to its southeast and move up over New England on Thursday, bringing us a rainy day, but this rain will start in the pre-dawn hours as sleet for some areas north and west of Boston, especially interior higher elevations from Worcester County to southwestern NH where a coating of sleet can occur before the rain takes over. The system will begin to pull away Friday, and the wind, which will be off the ocean during the storm’s passage, will shift back to regional land breeze, meaning we will start to dry out and be milder Friday, but we won’t see complete clearing as upper level low pressure will be overhead. We’re going to be dealing with something similar as upper level low pressure takes all weekend to move through our region, along with a cooling trend, so it won’t be a stellar weekend – no washout, but slightly unsettled with a few rain and even snow showers (later in the weekend) as we see that downward trend in temperature…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight but may begin as a period of sleet north and west of Boston, especially interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH in coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A touch of rain and/or drizzle with areas of fog possible early, then a chance of a passing rain shower later. Highs 52-59. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers, even mix/snow showers possible mainly interior higher elevations. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Dry with below normal temperatures March 28-29 as the cold air from Canada wins the battle. We get back into the battle zone between that cold and warmer air to the south in the March 30 to April 1 time frame with additional unsettled weather likely being the result.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)

Eyeing the potential for a quick warm-up on the first weekend of April with warmer air winning the next battle (low confidence forecast though) before we’re back in the unsettled battle zone yet again.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-23-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)

A dry, windy, and cool day is ours for today as a ridge of high pressure sits to the west and a deepening low spins across the Canadian Maritimes. These conditions also increase the risk of the rapid spread of brush fires as we have rather dry ground and are in the pre leaf-out stage of early spring – basically our fire season here in New England. The wind will relax tonight as the high pressure area moves closer and then over the region. Wednesday will be dry during the daytime but we’ll see clouds moving in ahead of an approaching low pressure system which is set to bring us unsettled weather starting Wednesday night and lasting into early Friday. This system will arrive with just enough cold air in place that we may see some snow and/or sleet over interior higher elevations before rain takes over for the remainder of the system’s duration, which will be until sometime early on Friday before its redeveloped low center moves out of the region. However, upper level low pressure over the region will limit any clearing and keep us rather unsettled into the start of the weekend as well.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight but may begin as a period of sleet and/or snow interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog early, then breaking clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)

Upper level low pressure will still be over the region along with colder air with a chance of rain and snow showers March 27. Another disturbance brings the chance of some precipitation before the end of March. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)

Eyeing the potential for a quick warm-up in the first few days of April as the pattern may re-adjust briefly, but this remains a low confidence outlook as some of our medium range guidance continues to show cooler and somewhat unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-22-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)

An area of high pressure elongated from east central Canada to the US Mid Atlantic will feed us dry and cool air for the next few days. It will be breezy as well between that ridge and low pressure over eastern Canada. By Wednesday, the northern high center will be closest to us and we’ll see clouds moving in ahead of an advancing area of low pressure from the west. This low will bring us unsettled weather from Wednesday night through Friday as it moves into the Northeast and also redevelops. The system will be mainly a rain producer, though enough cold air around at the start of the precipitation Wednesday night may mean that some areas, especially interior higher elevations, can see snow at the beginning. Somewhat drier air will try to work in during Friday but it may be a slow process with the redeveloped system being slow to move away and upper level low pressure still over the Northeast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Patchy clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog early, then breaking clouds with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)

Upper level low pressure is expected to move across the region over the March 26-27 weekend with unsettled weather and below normal temperatures meaning there can be rain and snow showers both days. Drier between this and another potential disturbance by the end of the period as temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

Eyeing the potential for a quick warm-up in the first few days of April as the pattern may re-adjust for a while, as this has shown up on several pieces of guidance more than once. However, not close to confident this will happen yet as other medium range guidance has completely different ideas. Knowing we’ll have cold in Canada and a warm US Southeast, it can go either way, or we can be stuck between the two in the battle zone still.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-21-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)

Low pressure still impacts our region today as an upper level system crosses the region, and later today a surface trough passes by. But it will not be a bad day either as we welcome spring with the vernal equinox at 11:33 a.m. There are some low clouds and areas of fog around to start the morning, but we have enough drying taking place with a developing southwesterly air flow with a low center to our north that we will end up with some sunshine today as well, and fairly mild air as well since the chilly air waits until after the trough to pass this evening. That trough may produce a few rain showers in the region this evening after a generally rain-free day. We turn cooler for the first several full days of spring though, first with dry weather in response to Canadian high pressure. By late Wednesday, our next low pressure system approaches, and if the moisture from it arrives quickly enough, precipitation may start as snow for portions of the region Wednesday night, before this becomes a rain event for Thursday.

TODAY: Early foggy areas, then a sun/cloud mix. Chance of rain showers evening. Highs 55-62. Wind SW-W increasing to 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)

Drier, cool March 25. Unsettled and cool weather expected during the March 26-27 weekend – too soon for details. Drier, cool late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

A little more up and down temperatures possible as we will be near a boundary between chilly air to the north and warmer air to the south, but this means the pattern will still likely be unsettled as well.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-20-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)

The final full day of winter will have a bit of a spring feel to it as we are still on the milder side today with showery weather. There is a frontal boundary though that will sit over the region, keeping northern MA and southern NH a little cooler for a good part of the day. Along with the showery episodes, triggered by a broad low pressure area moving into the Northeast, we’ll also see areas of fog. One of the impulses coming along later today and this evening will make the atmosphere unstable enough for possible thunder. Once this goes by, we’ll get some drier air into the area overnight and Sunday as the low pressure circulation begins to move away. We welcome the arrival of spring with the Vernal Equinox at 11:33 a.m. Sunday, and the day, despite being breezy, will be fairly mild, as colder air is locked up behind a trough that won’t come through our region until the evening. This may trigger a quick rain shower, and it will introduce cooler air for the first couple full days of spring early in the week. Another cold front will deliver colder air to the region by late Tuesday and Wednesday, at which time we’ll start to see clouds advancing ahead of our next storm threat, which may start as snow for at least parts of the region as early as Wednesday evening. But that’s several days away so there’s plenty of time to focus on it later…

TODAY: Cloudy. Episodes of showers. Areas of fog. Highs 45-50 southern NH and northern MA, 50-55 elsewhere. Wind NE-E under 10 MPH southern NH and northern MA, SE-S up to 15 MPH elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with areas of fog and passing showers, along with a possible thunderstorm. Breaking clouds but patchy fog overnight. Temperatures steady 45-55 or may even rise briefly. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH evening, SW similar speeds with higher gusts overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a rain shower late afternoon or evening. Highs 55-62. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix/rain at night. Highs 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)

Low pressure impacts the region with what ultimately ends up as a rain event to start this period, and a follow up system brings a precipitation threat around mid period, but less certainty as to the character of that system. Drier weather takes over later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

The pattern in this time frame likely finds us in that previously-mentioned battle zone between Canadian cold and southeastern USA warmth, and I’m leaning toward the colder side winning out here, including additional precipitation threats which are obviously too far away to speculate much on.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-19-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)

Another morning with areas of dense fog to start, but unlike yesterday, as that fog burned off to increasing clouds, today it will burn off to increasing sun as a weak ridge of high pressure moves into the region behind yesterday’s passing weak low pressure area. It warms up nicely one the sun gets busy today, but with a weak pressure gradient, this is a recipe for a coastal sea breeze which will end the warm-up party early for coastal areas. Low pressure moving into Ohio Valley today will then move into the Great Lakes Saturday and across northern New England and southeastern Canada Saturday night through Sunday. This will bring unsettled weather to our region for the weekend. Saturday will be the wet day with rain quite likely. Sunday ends up drier and breezy but with an additional rain shower possible as a cold front swings through later in the day. Sunday is also the day we welcome the arrival of spring with the vernal equinox at 11:33 a.m. High pressure brings fair and seasonably chilly weather early next week, but a disturbance will have to be watched for a potential interlude of light precipitation at some point later Monday to early Tuesday, based on current timing.

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog early morning especially eastern MA, otherwise sun dominates. Highs 57-64 coast, 65-72 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH including coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 47-54. Wind E to variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm evening, then breaking clouds. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 52-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of brief light rain/mix. Lows 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)

We’ll be in a battle zone between Canadian cold and southeastern US warmth. A couple of low pressure systems likely impact our area with precipitation. Can’t even rule out some frozen stuff falling from the sky at some point.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

We’ll continue in a battle zone between southeastern USA warmth and Canadian cold, leaving us vulnerable to a couple episodes of unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-18-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)

Today starts with some areas of dense fog. If you don’t have the fog, you get to see the sun to start the day before clouds move into the region in advance of low pressure. This weak storm system will track just south of New England tonight, bringing some light rainfall mainly to southeastern portions of the WHW forecast area later today into this evening before moving out later at night. This leave us in a slot of drier and milder air for Friday, so it will attempt to warm nicely, though this warm-up may be quickly thwarted by developing coastal sea breezes due to a weak wind field, then regionally ended by the passage of a cold front from the north and northeast later in the day or in the evening. Another low pressure system, this one rather broad and containing more moisture, will bring wet weather for the start of the weekend as it passes to our northwest. As it goes by, drier air will start to return for the second half of the weekend, though there still could be a passing rain shower on Sunday. The vernal equinox – the astronomical arrival of spring – occurs at 11:33 a.m. EDT on Sunday. High pressure brings fair and seasonably cool weather for Monday.

TODAY: Areas of fog morning. Increasing clouds. Scattered light rain this afternoon favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Highs 47-54. Wind S shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Evening light rain/drizzle possible southern and eastern areas. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early then more sun. Highs 55-62 coast, 63-70 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH including coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 47-54. Wind E to variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 52-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)

Overall pattern leaves us near a battle zone between lingering Canadian cold and early spring warmth to the south. A fair, milder start to the period here likely gives way to unsettled weather mid period then drying, cooler weather late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)

We’ll continue in a battle zone between southeastern USA warmth and Canadian cold, leaving us vulnerable to a couple episodes of unsettled weather late in the month.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-17-2022