C-19 Chat Post – 4-23-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 22-26)

Happy Earth Day 2022. Take care of your planet – it’s the only one you have! Today’s weather will be breezy but pleasant as we enjoy milder air from a down-sloping northwesterly air flow. High pressure building to our north will send slightly cooler air in for Saturday but it will still be on the mild side. We’ll have to wait for a frontal boundary to slip down from the north and northeast Saturday night to bring even cooler air for Sunday. By then we’ll also start to see more cloud cover as well, but the weekend overall will not be that bad – Saturday definitely being the better of the 2 days though. The front that comes through Saturday night will try to push back to the north Monday and may make it at least part-way across the region, and this sets up a tricky temperature forecast with the possibility of a significant temperature spread from one area to another. By Tuesday, a low pressure system arrives from the west with a chance of widespread showers, which by then will be needed as we see an increase in brush fire chances over the next few days.

TODAY: Partly cloudy then mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 .Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 inland. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62 southern NH and eastern MA as well as South Coast, 63-70 interior MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 57-64. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

Atmospheric blocking slows weather systems down and keeps low pressure in the vicinity for a few days with some additional unsettled weather, then maybe fair weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 2-6)

Blocking pattern potential with near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation at least early part of period. Block may break down mid to late period with zonal flow returning.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-22-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 21-25)

High pressure slides offshore today with low pressure passing north of our region tonight and early Friday, bringing its warm front / cold front combo across the area. This will be more a cloud and breeze producer than any rainfall, which will be limited to the chance of a brief shower this evening. High pressure builds in southeastern Canada and extends an arm down into our area to bring fair weather Friday night into the weekend, but as a warm front tries to approach the region and struggles, we’ll see a varying amount of cloud cover over the weekend, especially Sunday as it looks now, when we may see it generate a little bit of light rainfall at some point. I’m cautiously optimistic the front gets a push from a shift of high pressure to our east Monday which may allow for a brief warm up on that day…

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a brief shower southern NH / northern MA. Clearing overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52.Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of light rain late. Highs 57-64. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Lows 47-54. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70, cooler coast. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 26-30)

Frontal system and low pressure area brings shower chances April 26. Some atmospheric blocking slows progression of systems and may prolong unsettled weather until later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 1-5)

Blocking pattern potential with near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation at least early part of period. Block may break down later in the period with zonal flow returning.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-21-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 20-24)

High pressure approaches with bright but breezy and cool weather today. High pressure moves overhead with a clear and very chilly night tonight. The high slides offshore and a warm front moves through Thursday, followed by a cold front Thursday night / early Friday as these fronts’ parent low moves eastward passing to the north of New England. This will be basically a dry frontal pair with most shower activity staying to the north as the system will not carry much moisture with it. Once again, while we warm up a little with the warm front, we’ll be briefly even warmer behind the cold front (similar to a recent event) due to the down-slope effect of a westerly wind. Cooler air will arrive Friday night and the upcoming weekend will be a little on the cooler side as well, because high pressure centered to the northwest and north of New England will transport some cooler air in and also allow for onshore winds to develop. By Sunday, we may see more cloudiness and even some late-day rainfall with the approach of a warm front.

TODAY: Sunshine with passing fair-weather clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a brief shower southern NH / northern MA. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52.Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of light rain late. Highs 57-64. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 25-29)

Brief warm-up possible April 25. Frontal system and low pressure area brings shower chances April 26. Some atmospheric blocking may result in a stretch of cooler and unsettled weather midday to later part of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

Blocking pattern potential with near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation at least early part of period. Block may break down later in the period with zonal flow returning.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-20-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)

A potent low pressure area cutting right across New England, center just west of the WHW forecast area, will move northward and away from the area today and tonight. Our rainy/windy start to the day will evolve into a drier one with breaking clouds and shifting wind as the low center moves on. Behind that storm and ahead of approaching high pressure will come a gusty breeze but dry weather tonight and Wednesday before the high center moves overhead Wednesday night with wind dropping off. High pressure shifts offshore Thursday and a southwesterly air flow arrives ahead of a cold front, which passes by with little fanfare Thursday evening, then offshore Friday when we see a wind shift but still mild as any cooler aspect of the air mass behind the front is countered by west wind down-sloping off the mountains to the west. High pressure builds in for Saturday with fair weather and lighter wind, but coastal sea breezes likely.

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog morning as rain tapers off and ends. Breaking clouds, partial sun, and chance of a passing shower afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind shifting from SE to SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52.Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)

Warm front in area brings rain threat before the weekend ends April 24. Quick warm-up early next week followed by cold front, shower threat, and a cool-down midweek.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29 – MAY 4)

Blocking pattern potential. Near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-19-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)

It seems like we’ve been talking about Patriots Day forever, but it’s here. This holiday is celebrated in Maine, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, so not every part of the WHW forecast area has this day as a holiday, but in Massachusetts, it’s a significant one in that we now see the return of the Boston Marathon to this day after 2020’s was cancelled and 2021’s was held as a limited-participant race and held in October. And of course there is also the traditional Boston Red Sox late-morning first pitch home game today. We’ve seen all kinds of weather over the years on the day of the Marathon, including snowflakes in the air, wind and rain, and temps as high as the middle 90s. Today, the early-morning low temperature at the start line of the Marathon in Hopkinton MA was 33. But there is bright April sun shining and the temperature, which has already reached the upper 30s there as of 8:00 a.m., will be climbing through the 40s and into 50s along the race course and across the region, although along the coastline that temperature rise will be halted right around 50 as we see a light northerly breeze evolve into a sea breeze. This sea breeze will penetrate a bit of a distance inland, so many of the runners, especially the middle and later runners, will be arriving in the city of Boston and running into a sea breeze head wind. This is also a good time to remind anybody planning to be out along the course to support runners, or at the baseball game at Fenway Park, or anywhere outside for more than just a few minutes, it’s a good idea to apply sun block as you can acquire a sunburn in under an hour if you’re in direct sunlight. Despite the chill of early morning and the afternoon sea breeze, the weather is “being nice” to us, waiting until all these activities are completed before it turns on us. This will be a result of a low pressure area developing and moving up the Middle Atlantic Coast and into our area tonight and early Tuesday. There is enough cold air in place as the precipitation arrives that some snow may fall in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH, but a more certain snowfall will occur west of the WHW forecast area in the Berkshires – not unusual for April. But the vast bulk of this system will be a rain event with gusty wind, the direction at any given location determined by the low’s exact track. By Tuesday afternoon, the low center will already be heading away from us and into southeastern Canada via northern New England, and at that time we’ll see a drying trend and gusty westerly wind with chilly air. On Wednesday, we will still feel a bit of a chilly breeze between approaching high pressure and the storm over the Canadian Maritimes, but by late-day and nighttime that wind will be gone as the high center moves over us. But this will also set up a chilly Wednesday night and Thursday morning, and a large temperature diurnal (difference between morning low and afternoon high) as we get into a warming southwesterly air flow ahead of an approaching frontal system on Thursday. This system should pass by with limited rain shower activity later Thursday and early Friday, but a gusty shifting breeze and a cooler Friday…

TODAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 51-58, turning cooler coast midday-afternoon. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast with developing rain and the potential for mix/snow with some minor accumulation interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late in the day. Highs 60-67, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)

Pattern evolution potential from zonal to blocking. Unsettled weather episodes around April 24 and April 27 are rough guesses at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28 – MAY 3)

Blocking pattern potential. Near to below normal temperatures, near to above normal precipitation. Detail this far in advance not possible.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-18-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 17-21)

Happy Easter to those celebrating today! It’s a bright and beautiful but chilly and breezy Easter morning as I write this, and it’s going to be a cool and fairly blustery day, but we won’t keep the bright sunshine all day. As a pool of even colder air moves overhead, we’ll see a significant amount of diurnal cloud formation starting later this morning and through afternoon, some of them potentially releasing rain showers, some of which may contain rimed snowflakes a.k.a. graupel, and a few of the stronger showers can even contain small hail and produce lightning and thunder, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans. That settles down by evening and we lose the clouds after, setting up a clear and cold night as high pressure builds overhead. We start Monday out quite cold, with even some below-freezing low temperatures in the cold spots, and 30s for most of the area. With sunshine abundant in the morning, we’ll see a quick temperature rise, but it’s not going to be a warm day by any stretch with highest temps in the lower to middle 50s, even getting knocked back to below 50 along the shoreline due to a developing sea breeze. For the Boston Marathon, runners will gather in a significant morning chill, but at least we’ll have lost the wind from today by then. At the starting line it will be warming through the 40s and during the race into the 50s. As runners approach the finish line they will likely start feeling a sea breeze coming at them with a slight drop in temperature. This will especially be true for later-finishing runners. At Fenway park, it will be a dry but cool day for the midday baseball game. Hey, it could be worse, we’ve dealt with significant coastal storms for Patriots Day in the past, and this time, we’re going to miss by a handful of hours, as a coastal storm takes shape and brings a period of rain (and even some interior higher elevation snowfall) to the region Monday night and Tuesday morning. Right now I feel that the best chance of snow in the WHW forecast area is still southwestern NH and north central MA, mostly near and above 1000 feet in elevation, where some accumulation may occur. These situations are hard to forecast in the spring and we’ll just have to watch it closely. Either way, the system will begin to move away during the second half of Tuesday, and we dry out but with a lot of lingering clouds, chilly air, and a gusty wind. High pressure builds in with fair and cool but more tranquil weather Wednesday. A breeze returns Thursday but this time it will be a milder breeze ahead of an approaching cold front, which may bring some rain showers to the region as well.

TODAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds. Isolated to scattered showers this afternoon which may contain graupel and/or hail, and a slight chance of lightning/thunder. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 28-33 except 34-39 immediate shoreline and urban centers. Diminishing NW wind.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 51-58, turning cooler coast afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast with developing rain and the potential for mix/snow with some minor accumulation interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Highs 60-67, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 22-26)

A westerly (zonal) flow pattern is expected to start this period and may begin to evolve into more of a blocking pattern before the end of it. Best opportunity for wet weather comes around April 24.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 27 – MAY 2)

Leaning still toward a blocking pattern with near to below normal temperatures and the potential for a longer period of unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-17-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)

The third weekend of April 2022 has arrived and will be as busy weather-wise as many of us are with weekend plans, and those of us in MA, ME, and CT, it includes Monday which is the observed holiday of Patriots Day… Weather-wise there are quite a few changes packed into the next few days. Today we have a lot of clouds and a gusty southwesterly breeze ahead of a cold front, which will have a broken but fairly wide band of shower activity with it, including some embedded downpours and a slight risk of thunder, but it looks like the vast majority of the WHW forecast area gets through the main daylight hours of today without the rainfall, as it hangs back to the northwest, just skirting north central MA and southwestern NH at times. The bulk of the wet weather occurs tonight as the front slides through from west to east. A pretty sharp temperature drop even before the showers end, especially to the west and north of Boston, allows for the possibility of some mixing and even a brief change to snow showers in higher elevations of southwestern NH and northern central MA before precipitation moves out. A cold pool of air has to cross the region during Sunday, which is Easter for those celebrating it, and it will be a cooler and breezy day. Most of the sunshine will occur in the morning (though it may start cloudy across Cape Cod), before diurnal cloud development takes over. Some of these clouds can produce showers of rain and even graupel, but I don’t expect them to be widespread – just isolated to scattered, before fading later on. Look for clearing but a fairly chilly Sunday night and early Monday, which will be a factor when runners and spectators gather for the start of the Boston Marathon (Hopkinton MA), where it may be as low as the middle 30s at sunrise. As mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, there will be a steady rise in temperature from there on in the morning, eventually to the 50s, but as runners head eastward toward Boston, especially the later-finishing runners, they will probably be contending with at least a slight sea breeze by then. For anybody going to the Red Sox game at Fenway which has a late morning first pitch, expect dry weather, increasing high clouds, a temperature in the lower 50s with a light northerly breeze at first pitch, a high temp of about 55 middle innings, and back to the lower 50s with a sea breeze by the later innings. The aforementioned clouds will be increasing ahead of an approaching low pressure system, and while this will not bother outdoor activities during the day, it will bring us a shield of rain moving in at night and through about the first half of the day on Tuesday. The track of the low pressure area will be just southeast of our region, and with chilly air already in place and cold air above us, some of the interior higher elevations may see a period of mixed rain/snow or even straight snow with the system, resulting in the potential for some accumulation (more on this as we get closer to it). Later Tuesday, with that system moving away, expect breaking clouds but chilly air with a gusty wind. High pressure moves in by Wednesday with fair but still cool weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy but occasional intervals of sunshine. Slight chance of brief rain showers north central MA and southwestern NH late morning on. Highs 60-67, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely including a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, ending west to east overnight possibly as a mix with sleet and/or snow showers in the highest elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA where a brief coating could occur on coldest surfaces. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Early clouds especially southeastern MA giving way to sun, then sun/cloud mix late morning on with isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers which may include graupel in isolated locations. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, variable under 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast with developing rain and the potential for mix/snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening, clearing overnight. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)

Westerly (zonal) flow pattern. A trough and frontal system brings the threat of rain showers to the region later April 21 and/or early April 22. April 23-24 weekend looks split with a cool/dry start and a potentially wetter finish before a push of warmer air may arrive to end this forecast period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26 – MAY 1)

The hints of blocking that were present on recent guidance are not as prominent on the current guidance but given the time of year, I’ll not count out the possibility. This leads to a low confidence forecast with 1 or 2 periods of unsettled weather and variable temperatures, to be fine-tuned in the future.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-16-2022