DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

The summer preview hangs on today with some warmth and humidity in place, but a cold front will put an end to that as it swings through from west to east this evening. Showers and thunderstorms can pop up in some unstable air ahead of the front, mainly away from the coast, during the day today, and more showers/storms will be generated by this front but the heaviest activity and greatest threat of strong to severe storms will occur west of the WHW forecast area with a weakening version of these moving through here this evening. Tuesday, drier air arrives but with upper level low pressure and a surface trough to cross the area from west to east we can still see a shower pop up, especially during the afternoon. High pressure brings dry weather midweek, breezy Wednesday as the high will be west of us, and more tranquil Thursday as the high moves overhead. Friday, a warm front moves through and high pressure builds to our south, with a warm-up occurring, although it looks mainly dry with no rain threat.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated midday and afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring areas west and north of Boston. Highs 76-83, cooler South Coast. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Humid early, then drying. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

Fair and warm to hot weather with high pressure in control and centered south of the region May 21. Watching for a frontal boundary to move across the region during May 22 and/or 23 with a shower threat and a cooling trend. Some chance of rainfall later in the period as a low pressure area approaches and the boundary hangs nearby.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

A couple shower threats exist, but overall pattern still looks dry despite this. Temperatures near to above normal with weak ridging along the East Coast and a trough in the Midwest.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-16-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

I hope you enjoyed yesterday’s summer preview with lots of sun and warm temperatures. Of course some coastal areas were cooler, as would be expected where wind came off water at this time of year, but even those areas were considerably warmer than during the many days of easterly air flow last week, so they did not completely lose out. During last night, the low pressure that was part of that blocking pattern, in the process of the pattern’s break-down, finally made its way north northeastward and up into southern New England, and will complete its journey across our region today. What this does to us is make our air flow a little more southerly, and with that and more cloudiness today we’ll see temperatures a few to several degrees cooler than yesterday, with 80+ the exception instead of the rule. While this happens though, the dew point will still be on the higher side, around 60, so you’ll still notice that higher humidity. The shower activity with the arrival of the low pressure area has exited the region, but with the air somewhat unstable both today and this evening we can see some pop up showers and even an isolated thunderstorm in a few locations. but the coverage on these will be fairly low, so not everybody will see them, and areas that do will not be impacted for long. This brings us to tonight’s total lunar eclipse. This is a long-duration eclipse, starting just after 9:30 p.m. tonight and ending just before 3:00 a.m. Monday. The WHW area will experience totality from around 11:30 p.m. Sunday to about 1:00 a.m. Monday, with a peak totality at 12:11 a.m. … but will we see it? We’re not going to have a 100% clear sky. We’ll be contending with a variable amount of cloud cover, but what may help is that a little bit of drying will take place as that low pressure area will be north of us, and the wind will have shifted a little more to the west. Some of the short range guidance which simulates the cloud cover is showing some pretty decent gaps in the cloud coverage, which if true could allow many of us to at least get periodic unobstructed viewing of the event. The long-duration of the event also increases the odds. Fingers crossed! Back to the weather. We’re not done with our warm/humid summer preview yet as we get to Monday, as we’ll be in the air mass ahead of an approaching cold front. As is typical for this time of year, while the front brings the threat of showers and thunderstorms, some of the storms potentially severe, the greatest severe threat will be mainly west of the WHW forecast area as our area will have a stabilizing influence from a southerly wind off the still cool water to the south. However we should be on the lookout for at least the chance of passing downpours / t-storms with possible gusty wind as we get into late Monday afternoon and evening. Once that front goes by, that threat ends, and dew point drops, and the temperatures does as well, but modestly. Tuesday will be a “cooler” day but still quite nice with many areas reaching or exceeding 70. However there will be a pool of colder air above and a surface trough that has to swing through the region from west to east during the afternoon hours, and this could trigger the development of showers and even a few thunderstorms, even with some hail potential due to the colder air above us. If this takes place it would be a fairly short-lived event for any given location. Canadian high pressure approaches the region on Wednesday with fair, breezy, and seasonably cool weather, and then the high moves right over us on Thursday which in terms of sunshine and comfortable air is going to likely end up as the pick of the week, unless you like it warmer to hotter. More to come in the DAYS 6-10 section about that. First, the details for the next 5…

TODAY: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun, and a slight chance of a passing shower or isolated thunderstorm especially during the afternoon hours. Highs 68-75 coastal plain, coolest South Coast, and 75-82 over inland areas. Humid – dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower and slight chance of a thunderstorm evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Humid – dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, especially late-day. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Humid early, then drying. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGH: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

High pressure ridging building over the region including surface high pressure to the south means fair weather and a significant warm-up May 20-22 including the first chance of 90+ temperatures some areas on the May 21-22 weekend. Later in the period watching for a frontal boundary slipping down from the north and a wave of low pressure bringing a fairly rare rain chance.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

A couple shower threats exist, but overall pattern still looks dry despite this. Temperatures near to above normal with weak ridging along the East Coast and a trough in the Midwest.

C-19 Chat Post –5-15-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

Our weekend will feature a summer preview – not hot, but quite warm away from any ocean’s influence, as we have a southwesterly flow today and a bit more southerly on Sunday. Today will be the warmest day in many areas by a few degrees. There is going to be a variety of clouds sharing the sky, with low level stratus clouds often flirting with the South Coast, and sometimes dominating there. A shield of higher clouds will start to overspread the sky as today goes on from southwest to northeast, and thickens and lowers a little bit tonight, enough to bring some showers through the region during the overnight hours and first thing on Sunday. This is actually the remnants of that low pressure area that sat to our south for many days during the blocking pattern during the past week. As the block has been breaking down, that low pressure area moved westward, then northward, and will be making a transition to a disturbance joining a more west to east jet stream at higher latitudes, but it has to pass by us in the process. The good news is we get rid of it for most of Sunday, which looks like quite the nice day after we get rid of the earlier more extensive clouds. However again we have to watch for more stubborn lower clouds at the South Coast due to the southerly air flow. Both today and Sunday run a small chance of seeing a couple showers pop up over inland locations, but this is a very low chance that is not worth altering any outdoor plans over other than simply keeping an eye on the radar. Also, with the warmer weather, many people may want to try to sneak in an early beach day. If you do, please keep in mind that it is only mid May and the ocean water temperatures are as cold as the upper 40s to lower 50s. This is water you don’t want to immerse yourself in for more than a minute or two, if you’re brave enough to do even that. Water that cold can impact you quickly and impair muscle function. Also worthy of mention are tree pollen counts which will be very high the next few days with the lack of general rainfall in the forecast – so allergy sufferers take note. Sorry for the more negative sounding information, but it’s important to note these potential issues. Something a little more fun to talk about: A total lunar eclipse that occurs on Sunday night / early Monday. The full Flower Moon this year will be eclipsed from the 9 p.m. hour Sunday to nearly 3 a.m. Monday, with a total phase that lasts nearly 90 minutes from about 11:30 p.m. to about 1:00 a.m. Although we are not expecting a totally clear sky, the variable cloud cover across most of the region should allow some visibility for this event. Plan accordingly! More about this in tomorrow’s blog post. Back to the forecast – our preview of summer continues Monday with moderate to high humidity for this time of year and an approaching cold front, which may trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity before it passes by. We’ll see a return to cooler weather with lower humidity for Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, and upper level cool pool and surface trough will at least trigger clouds and may produce a shower or even an isolated thunderstorm in a day that will otherwise be generally rain-free but fairly breezy. High pressure approaches on Wednesday and while we will still have a bit of a breeze to contend with, it will be quite pleasant – a land breeze for the region as opposed to the chillier onshore flow we had not so long ago.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Remote chance of an isolated afternoon shower inland locations. Highs 72-79 coastal plain except cooler South Coast, 80-87 inland with warmest in valley areas west and north of Boston. Moderately humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Moderately humid – dew point upper 50s to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds and a possible shower early morning, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers inland, mainly well west of Boston. Highs 75-82 inland, cooler coastal areas. Moderately humid – dew point around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Moderately humid – dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, especially late-day. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Humid early, then drying. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm is possible. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

High pressure moves overhead with fair, mild, and tranquil weather May 19, then the high shifts offshore and we remain mainly dry but warm up later next week (May 20-21). By the time we get later into the period there are hints of high pressure in eastern Canada battling with high pressure to the south in the Middle Atlantic. This can set up a back-door frontal passage and a cooler shot of air from the Canadian Maritimes of the high to the north is strong enough, or a bit of an unsettled stretch of the boundary comes in and sits nearby. Obviously, it’s far too soon to speculate any further than that.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

Watch early period for an air mass battle and potential unsettled weather. Overall, dry trend should win out and we end up mainly fair.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-14-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

The pattern transition continues on both the large scale and more regional scale. On the larger scale, the blocking pattern continues to unravel, as high pressure that was north of us sinks southeastward heading for a position more to our east in the next few days, while the low pressure area that hung out to our south drifts westward into the southeastern US, destined to weaken and then drift northward, with some of its remnant moisture reaching us in the form of clouds at times this weekend and a shower / thunderstorm threat Monday ahead of an approaching cold front before that front pushes offshore Tuesday announcing a westerly (zonal) flow having taken over. Backing up though, to today again. We have a lot of stratus clouds in place, even more widespread than yesterday morning, absent only in sections of northwestern Middlesex County, northeastern Worcester County, and a portion adjacent southern NH. Like yesterday, we will see erosion of this cloud deck as the strong May sun works on it from above, mixing the air. Where this will be incomplete and slowest to occur will be along the South Coast this time, as our surface winds will be turning more southerly, but again not a bad day overall for most of the region – with a decent warm-up away from the coastline and especially where the sun does shine. Saturday, our wind flow will be more southwesterly, before going back a bit more southerly on Sunday. As mentioned yesterday, this means that Saturday will likely be the warmest day of the weekend for most, by a few degrees, with a bit more influence from the ocean water to our south by Sunday. My feeling is that while we have a shower threat both Saturday and Sunday, it’s minimal and mainly for interior locations. We’re essentially looking at a dry weekend in terms of rainfall, but one in which you will feel an up-tick in humidity levels since it’s been so dry lately. That humidity will peak on Monday ahead of the aforementioned cold front before it crashes behind the front on Tuesday. We may not see total sunshine Tuesday though as there will be a pool of cooler air moving across the region aloft, and this sets the stage for clouds to pop up, triggered by the sun’s heating.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy then increasing sun north to south although South Coast hangs onto clouds much of day. Highs 61-68 shoreline, 69-76 inland except 77-84 interior valleys. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Remote chance of an isolated afternoon shower inland locations. Highs 70-77 coastal plain except cooler South Coast, 78-85 inland with warmest in valley areas west and north of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Remote chance of an isolated shower inland locations. Highs 75-82 inland, cooler coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. More humid. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

Looking for a west-to-east larger scale pattern which should bring fair and seasonably cooler weather May 18-19. It tries to warm up after that but a frontal boundary may be hanging around the region with at least some cloudiness. The pattern still looks dry with not a lot of moisture available for rainfall, so any threat of rain should be minimal as it stands now.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

No significant changes to the pattern are anticipated going into late May. Looking for no big temperature extremes and a tendency to be on the drier side, but will keep an eye out for any blocking to return and change things up.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-13-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

Our blocking pattern is in the process of breaking down, and will do so as high pressure to the north weakens and sinks over our region while the upper low to the south drifts westward into the southeastern US. Eventually this low will open up and drift northward and merge with a trough moving eastward in a more west-to-east flow resuming across the eastern US. What does this all mean for our weather? Well, it means a pattern change of sorts, but our daily details over this 5 day period come down to what is going on at the surface. You’ve heard many comments now on the blog about being careful when you see certain numbers on the guidance and believing them too far in advance, because of known shortcomings in the guidance and the need for the application of meteorology itself as a bigger part of the forecasting process than just “seeing the numbers”. That’s the process I have been undertaking daily in trying to get these forecasts as accurate as possible. It doesn’t always work out, as we saw yesterday with the slower advance of the cloud-cover into locations north and west of Boston, while the South Shore, for example, got into the clouds and even some drizzle sooner. But the general idea was that clouds were going to take over, and finally during last night they had done that. We’ve finally moistened up the lower levels to get stratus clouds, and even areas of fog and patchy drizzle expanding somewhat inland. The exception as of the time of this writing is northwestern Worcester County of MA and adjacent southwestern NH which got to see the sun as it came up, since the cloud canopy fell short of reaching those areas. As we go through the day today, a modest easterly air flow will keep the clouds intact longest in the coastal plain while inland locations benefit from being further away from the maritime air source and a strong sun that will help erode the clouds and at least partially clear them. Some areas will break completely into sunshine as we get to midday and afternoon. As a result we’ll see a significant spread in temperature across the region, with coastal areas staying coolest and inland areas, especially valley locations well northwest of Boston, see the warmest air later today. Tonight, enough east to southeast flow and low level moisture spreads the stratus back across much of the region, and then we have to go through the process of breaking it up again tomorrow after sunrise and during the morning, but as the air flow turns a little more to the southeast and eventually south, we should see this breaking cloud and clearing process become a little more efficient, with the exception of Cape Cod and the South Coast, where the clouds may remain more stubborn. Again, we’ll have a temperature spread from coast to interior, not much unlike today’s, but perhaps a few degrees warmer overall. Friday night and Saturday we get enough surface high pressure to the southeast of us to shift the air flow around to the southwest, and that’s when more of the region is allowed to warm, especially during the day Saturday – a preview of summer for many as we reach or exceed 80, but there will be exceptions, and that will be anywhere that wind is coming off cooler water, especially the South Coast and Cape Cod, but also areas along the eastern coastline where the shape is irregular and wind has to blow over water before reaching there (Nahant, for example). Areas like that will be cooler as well on Saturday. A similar situation sets up for Sunday, but add in the chance for a few isolated afternoon showers – albeit a very slight one, and the flow may be a little more southerly so that may take the temperatures down a notch or two due to more direct influence of cooler water south of New England. When we get to Monday, the late spring / early summer feel will be in place still, but this time a cold front will be approaching and moving through from the west, with a greater chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, the coverage and strength dependent on a few things, especially the amount of sun and the timing of the front – to be fine-tuned as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Sunny northwestern Worcester County and nearby southwestern NH, otherwise cloudy with areas of fog and patches of drizzle this morning with a breaking of clouds to allow for partial sun, especially away from the coast, midday-afternoon. Highs 57-64 coastal plain, 65-72 interior. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Area of fog. Patchy drizzle, favoring the coast. Lows 50-57. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog and coastal drizzle to start, then clouds break for sun except South Coast which stays mostly cloudy. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland except 75-82 possible in some interior valley areas. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77 coastal plain except cooler South Coast, 78-85 inland with warmest in valley areas west and north of Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers inland locations. Highs 75-82 inland, cooler coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. More humid. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

The large scale pattern should feature more zonal (west to east) flow, but with slow-moving features. Upper level low pressure crosses there region early in the period with a few diurnal showers likely generated May 17, followed by a drier west to northwest flow, fair and cooler weather May 18-19. We’ll have to watch for a frontal boundary in the vicinity later in the period bringing more cloudiness and eventually the potential for some rainfall, but the overall pattern looks quite dry so not looking for any big rain production from such a set-up at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

Similar caution to what was said for this period yesterday – leaning to progressive pattern but watching for blocking that the guidance won’t see. Initial idea is cooler start, warmer finish, and mostly dry weather with a minor disturbance or two bringing brief shower threats.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-12-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

The Rex Block (high pressure north / low pressure south) that has been dominating our pattern for several days will gradually weaken and break down during the next 5 days. A maritime air flow hangs on for another day as low pressure to the south gradually starts to loosen its grip and high pressure still sits to the north. The orientation of the low to our south has changed so that it can throw back one larger scale lobe of moisture in the form of cloudiness, which will move in today, peak tonight, and break up and exit gradually on Thursday, as high pressure drifts right into the region. This high will sit over to just south and east of the region as we get into Friday and more so by the weekend, so our transition to a region-wide warmer regime will take place, albeit slowly. The coastal areas will hang onto cooler conditions longer, as is typical of springtime. The warmest day for most of us should be Saturday, when the wind is mainly from the southwest, but eastern areas may be a little less warm by Sunday as the wind flow may be more from due south, and bring in more influence from the cooler ocean water south of the area. Generally dry weather is expected during the next 5 days. The exceptions will be a few showers around Cape Cod mainly early today, perhaps a few pockets of drizzle mainly in coastal areas tonight and early Thursday due to lower level moisture from the ocean, and a few isolated showers which may pop up over the weekend, favoring inland areas, but this chance is quite low.

TODAY: Clouds increase east to west. A few rain showers around Cape Cod. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Fog patches. Chance of coastal drizzle. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 57-64 coastal plain, 65-72 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland, but can drop during the afternoon especially in coastal areas. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Remote chance of isolated showers inland areas. Highs 77-84 except cooler coastal areas especially South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers inland locadtions. Highs 75-82 inland, cooler coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Upper air pattern looks more zonal (west to east) with a tendency for high pressure ridging near the East Coast. This is not automatically a warm pattern the entire time though, especially in the spring. We do likely have a warm day to start the period on May 16 as a cold front approaches and crosses the region with a shower and thunderstorm threat. A shot of dry but cooler air follows this. A warm up may try to take place later in the period but that will depend on the orientation and movement of a frontal boundary in the region, which threatens more clouds and possibly some rainfall, but looking this far into the future this does not look like it would produce significant rainfall. Our region is in need of rain to quell brush fire threats and prevent future abnormally dry / drought conditions from developing.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Today’s leaning is for more a somewhat progressive pattern versus blocking, though we need to watch that as guidance can misfire on picking it up, or waffle back and forth. Right now going with a zonal flow but more troughing here and ridging back toward the Midwest. This would be a dry but slightly cooler pattern for our region.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-11-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)

For now we hold onto the air flow from the ocean with low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north. Eventually this changes as the high to the north, while weakening, slips down over our region with much lighter wind Thursday and Friday, still allowing coastal sea breezes but allowing the region to warm up, especially away from the coast. Once we get to Saturday we’ll have a more regionwide southwesterly air flow that warms more of the region except where that wind still crosses water before reaching land. It looks like this 5 day period will continue our dry spell too.

TODAY: Cape Cod clouds at times, sunshine elsewhere. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 coastal plain, 66-73 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 76-83 inland, but may turn cooler in any coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84 except cooler coastal areas especially South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Hanging onto the warm air but still watch the coast for cooling on May 15, but it should be fair with just some clouds at times. Cold front from the west moves through May 16 with a shower threat, but still warm temperatures. Fair, cooler weather as Canadian high pressure arrives toward the middle of next week, based on current expected timing.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

Guidance remains in waffle mode between weak zonal flow and a weak blocking pattern. We’ll likely be on the fence between the 2 with no strong anomalies in temperature but vulnerable to maritime influences especially coast, and a continuation of the trend of below normal precipitation.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-10-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

The set-up we had over the weekend – high pressure to our north, low pressure to our south – is still in place, but the overall orientation of the pair has shifted to the south a little bit, and this will be our regime for today and Tuesday, keep us dry but cool and breezy. On Wednesday, the low to the south stretches out somewhat and a lobe of it tries to get closer by rotating northwestward from the waters southeast of New England, so we’ll get a band of clouds back into the picture for part of the day. I’d waffled back and forth a bit on a shower threat for this, and for this forecast I’ll put it back in play as a possibility for Wednesday for eastern sections of Massachusetts. Finally, on Thursday, the high pressure center, even though weaker, will have made its way over our region with light wind and a warm-up, especially away from the coast where sea breezes can still develop. This warm up should establish itself further by Friday as we get the axis of high pressure to sink to the south a little more and help the overall wind flow shift to more westerly, giving our region its first preview of summer…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning with a possible rain shower southeastern MA and RI. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 coastal plain, 68-75 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 76-83 inland, but may turn cooler in any coastal areas in the afternoon. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Surface high pressure drifts to the south then east. Need to watch a potential boundary to the north that can slip down as a back door front over the May 14-15 weekend. Right now calling for fair and warm weather and a bit cooler at the coast May 14, a few more clouds and a possible shower May 15 and then may clear out with that day having a better chance at a wind at least somewhat onshore for the region and cooler for all areas. Pattern tries to have a little more west to east movement early next week with a frontal system moving through with a shower threat around May 16 then a turn to fair and cooler weather, but this part of the forecast remains low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

Guidance is split between weak zonal flow and a weak blocking pattern. We’ll likely be on the fence between the 2 with no strong anomalies in temperature but vulnerable to maritime influences especially coast, and a continuation of the trend of below normal precipitation.