C-19 Chat Post – 5-9-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)

We remain in the high pressure north / low pressure south block at this time. In typical fashion of both springtime and this pattern, your best weather on Saturday was away from the coast, as the South Coast had periods of rain, and both coasts had persistent wind that was rather gusty, especially east-facing shores. Although it was breezy inland as well, the filtered sunshine helped it be a more pleasant day in a relative sense. Today, as that battle between high pressure and low pressure continues, the high to the north continues to gain and the South Coast rain sits mainly offshore, but we still have to deal with a cloud shield allowing some limited sun, and a gusty breeze. Travels to Mother’s Day brunches and visits will likely require a jacket. Happy Mother’s Day! High pressure pushes even further south Monday which should be a nicer day with more sun and a bit less wind, although we will still have a cool maritime breeze blowing. This general set-up will hold into the middle of next week, with the easterly flow gradually relaxing as the high center from the north gets closer. A stretching of the low pressure to the south may toss some additional clouds back into our sky toward midweek, but it should remain dry. When we get to Thursday, high pressure should be right over us with a sun-warmed air mass allowing a warm-up here, but a weak wind field allowing for sea breezes, keeping the coast cooler.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67 coastal plain, 68-75 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

On the large scale, we continue to see some blocking during the middle of May. For us here, we should see surface high pressure sink to the south with a more significant warm-up for a couple days, but we need to watch for coastal sea breezes and even a back-door front threat as early as May 14. The air flow may turn more southerly and introduce more cloudiness and even a shower threat at some point mid to late period, but this is a lower confidence forecast at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

Weaker blocking transitioning to zonal (west to east) flow continues to be the idea with variable temperatures averaging near normal and a mostly dry pattern other than minor systems bringing brief shower threats.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-8-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

Blocking. Spring. New England. These terms are very related and you all know that by now. This weather pattern is in place and the storm system we’ve been talking about all week as being a watcher for late week into the weekend is indeed performing as expected so far – rain near the South Coast, and a sharp cut off to that precipitation with the bulk of our area dry. This is going to be the case today, and then the rain should get pushed even further south during Sunday and on through Monday as well, as Canadian high pressure gains in the battle between it and that low pressure area to the south. All the while we will continue to endure a regionwide easterly flow, which you know means cool weather at this time of year. When we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, the orientation of low pressure to the south may change enough so that some cloudiness is thrown back westward into our area and high pressure is still held at bay to the north and west of here. This would continue a general onshore easterly flow and introduce the chance of a few showers, but 1) I’m not confident this is how it plays out and 2) if it does play out this way I would not expect a heavy rain event – just some unsettled weather toward the middle of the coming week. Obviously, some fine-tuning will be necessary for that part of the outlook.

TODAY: Filtered sun at times southern NH / northern MA and heavier overcast to the south with periods of rain South Coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly near the South Coast. Lows 43-50.Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Clouds/sun intervals with clouds most dominant closer to South Coast and sun becoming more dominant first to the north then south later. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers favoring Cape Cod. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers RI and eastern MA. Lows 48-55. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

On the large scale, we continue to see some blocking into the middle of May. For us here, we should see surface high pressure sink to the south during the first few days of this period with a general temperature warm-up. Always have to watch for sea breezes or a back-door cold front, especially toward mid period. Later in the period another Canadian high may send cooler air down from the north or in a more indirect fashion via the Gulf of Maine. I’m not quite sure how this plays out yet this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

Weaker blocking transitioning to zonal (west to east) flow is my current idea. Variable temperatures but overall warmer trend with a fairly dry pattern – minor systems.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-7-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

A blocking pattern will continue to be in control during the next 5 days. Much of this time we’ll have high pressure in eastern Canada and low pressure strung out just to the south of New England. The low pressure area will be close enough to keep us under its canopy of clouds into Sunday, with most rainfall limited to the South Coast – with maybe a couple of pushes northward toward the I-90 belt at times that generally get thwarted by dry air. Eventually, high pressure starts to win the battle during Sunday and into early next week with increasing sunshine as the low gets pushed southeastward. This pattern is a cool one for our area though with a broad scale onshore (easterly) air flow much of the time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Some light rain possible near the South Coast this afternoon. Highs 60-67 but falling to the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of coastal drizzle. A few periods of rain possible near the South Coast. Lows 44-51. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of coastal drizzle. A few periods of rain possible near the South Coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain south of I-90. Chance of coastal drizzle. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with possible coastal drizzle during the morning. Breaking clouds / increasing sun afternoon. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we sit in a blocking pattern with little overall movement of systems except a sinking to the south of the high pressure area. This means a mainly dry stretch of weather, starting on the cool side followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Leaning toward a drier pattern and a little uncertainty as to we remain under the influence of weak blocking or finally get into a more zonal pattern. Re-evaluation needed. Temperatures should be fairly close to normal, maybe a bit above with enough land breezes.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-6-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

A blocking pattern will control our weather for the next several days. High pressure at the surface brings fair and mild weather today, but a storm system to the south gets close enough to result in an easterly air flow Friday and the weekend, with cloudiness and some rain potential for southern areas, favoring the South Coast, later Friday and especially Saturday. Cautiously optimistic that a southward push of high pressure clears us out again during Sunday and through Monday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 60-67 but falling to the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast, Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we sit in a blocking pattern with little overall movement of systems except a sinking to the south of the high pressure area. This means a mainly dry stretch of weather, starting on the cool side followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

May sit in battle zone between warmer high pressure to the south and cool high pressure in Canada, leaving us vulnerable to additional unsettled weather and variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-5-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)

Low pressure moves through the region today, its center passing near or just south of the South Coast along a frontal boundary. This brings periods of rain and some embedded heavier showers, maybe even the risk of some thunder. But when we measure the rainfall, most of the region will have had modest amounts when it’s done. This isn’t all that helpful since we do need rain to keep up the water supply for the coming warm season, as well as put the brakes on fire season, which still goes on for a little longer. Additionally, despite blocking in the pattern, we end up mainly dry in the days ahead as it still looks after high pressure delivers nice weather Thursday, low pressure passes by but too far to the south for any appreciable rainfall late this week (Friday-Saturday). Another high pressure push from Canada should ensure dry weather for Mothers Day on Sunday, but it will remain cool due to an east to northeast air flow.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 49-56, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Patchy fog evening. Lows 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67 but falling to the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle near the coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)

High pressure will be in control of the weather as we sit in a blocking pattern with little overall movement of systems except a sinking to the south of the high pressure area. This means a mainly dry stretch of weather, starting on the cool side followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)

Not only is the forecast less certain because of how far into the future we look here, but also because it looks like we’ll be in another springtime battle between warm high pressure to the south and cool high pressure in eastern Canada. While some guidance paints a picture of very warm to even early hot weather, we can be vulnerable to much cooler shots of air from eastern Canada via the Gulf of Maine, including the classic back-door cold fronts. We should always be on the lookout for those at this time of year as guidance often doesn’t see them coming that many days in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-4-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)

Weak low pressure exits and weak high pressure tries to build in today. We’ll lose the shower threat we have this morning but keep the clouds, with only a few breaks of sunshine possible at times later. A frontal boundary sitting just to our south will provide a pathway for low pressure on Wednesday, with cool air and period of rain. We get a break Thursday after this system exits and we see a stronger push of Canadian high pressure. With the air behind Wednesday’s low coming from a region that has had more sun, we’ll end up with a much milder day with just some coastal sea breeze activity keeping it cooler there relative to inland locations. Later this week we’ll be eyeing another strung out low pressure area to our southwest which will approach the region, bringing clouds back during Friday. My feeling at this time is that the low center will remain far enough south through Saturday to keep its rain away, but we’ll probably end up with a lot of clouds due to an easterly flow, which as you also know at this time of year means cool air as well.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with scattered showers possible. Mostly cloudy with a few episodes of sun possible late morning / afternoon. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH, strongest near the South Coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds break, patchy fog dissipates. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in the morning, becoming variable with afternoon coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 51-58. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle near the coast. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)

It looks like we’ll be under the influence of a blocking pattern starting with low pressure far enough south to keep its rain away then high pressure in control with dry weather continuing. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)

Hints in here of a weakening / break-down of the blocking pattern and a more zonal (west to east) flow developing. This would mean progressive systems bringing up and down temperatures and a few chances for unsettled weather, but plenty of dry weather between.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-3-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

A warm front approaches today with thickening cloud cover and eventually some light rainfall in the area by this evening or tonight – not a big deal, but that front won’t make it in, and we’ll stay on the cool side of the boundary. Weak high pressure makes a feeble and generally failed attempt to clear us out Tuesday, so going with clouds to dominate, but no rainfall threat. Low pressure looks like it makes a run for regions just northwest of us Wednesday, but wait, it suddenly decides to bubble along the frontal boundary to our south and we stay north of its track with a cool easterly air flow and periodic rainfall. Finally a stronger push from high pressure takes place as that system departs by Thursday, which turns out to be a dry and milder day, though still somewhat cooler along the coastline. When we get to Friday, there’s significant inconsistency and disagreement in model guidance, with some outcomes ranging from dry and and mild to dry/breezy/cool to another low pressure system moving in with another wet weather threat. I’m between scenarios #2 and #3, leaning toward the unsettled side of things with clouds returning and some threat of rain, especially for southern areas. There will be fine-tuning to come…

TODAY: Thickening overcast. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few glimpses of sun possible. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds break, patchy fog dissipates. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain, favoring southern areas. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

Large-scale pattern: Blocking with high pressure in eastern Canada and slowly eastward-moving low pressure areas to the south of that. We remain most vulnerable to cloudy and occasional wet weather in the May 7-8 depending on how far north low pressure is. Fair weather should follow this. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

Similar pattern should continue as we approach and reach the half-way point of May, leaving us vulnerable to some unsettled weather episodes and variable temperatures that lean to slightly below normal. The confidence in this part of the forecast is fairly low though. There is still a fairly large spread in medium range guidance and one can make a case for any of these being potentially correct.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-2-2022