DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)
We may be in a drought situation but we’ve been getting some great vacation weather around here this year. Always a price to pay, it seems. With no end in sight to the drought, we do look for any drop of rain we can get, and there are not a lot of drops in the forecast over the next 5 days as we end July and begin August. If you were up early today, temperatures in the 50s greeted you if you went outside, thanks to low humidity, a clear overnight sky, and calm wind, setting up a nice radiational cooling episode. But today with high pressure over us we’ll see about 100% of the possible sun, maybe briefly blotted out by a few fair weather clouds and then filtered by some high clouds this afternoon. We can also enjoy low humidity and light wind with some coastal sea breezes developing. High pressure moves offshore tonight. Monday, low pressure passes south of New England but may be just close enough to bring heavier clouds and perhaps some shower activity to the South Coast before it moves away. Tuesday, humidity spikes ahead of an approaching cold front which brings us the chance of a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or the evening. A new bubble of high pressure via the Great Lakes brings slightly drier air for Wednesday, with fair weather, before it moves offshore and we get a spike of higher heat and humidity for Thursday. While many areas get to 90 or higher that day, some of the astronomical readings guidance has been showing us for many days leading up to this are highly unlikely to occur. The next potential thunderstorm threat can come later Thursday pending the speed of approach of the next cold front and whether or not there is an active pre-frontal trough, which would be the most likely trigger and most likely north and west of Boston. But it’s far too early for any timing / detail.
TODAY: Mainly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast where it can fall back to the 70s. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers South Coast. Partly to mostly sunny elsewhere with most sun further north. Highs 83-90, warmest interior northern MA and southern NH. Dew point passing 60 on its way up. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms late-day or evening, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)
This is where my forecast starts to diverge from what medium range guidance shows as I feel most medium range models are performing very poorly. August 5 is a muggy day with a shower / thunderstorm threat as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. High pressure brings warm, dry weather for August 6 into August 7 but an attempt at humidity returning brings clouds back for the end of that weekend eventually leading to a shower / thunderstorm chance around August 8 before another shot of drier air arrives for the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal for average, but no extreme heat at least in any prolonged fashion.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)
Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry. Basically “typical” August weather in New England.