On this final day of August 2022 we will be transitioning from a humid air mass that tacked on another 90+ day to Boston’s total yesterday and into a drier one, but it will take a number of hours before we feel the drier air. The cold front that leads the new air mass in is just going through the region now, having produced a pretty solid band of light to moderate showers with embedded downpours in the pre-dawn to dawn time frame. As of 7:00 a.m. (the time I began writing this blog update), the shower band is just getting set to exit the NH Seacoast and MA East Coast but is just about to cross Outer Cape Cod before exiting there by 9:00 a.m. Areas to the west saw their showers earlier, and are already rain-free with clearing starting to move in. This drying / clearing trend will push eastward, and while we have a warm day (not as hot as yesterday) the dew point will be going down gradually from west to east as the drier air mass moves into our region. Another secondary front / trough will be passing by later Thursday with a bit of a reinforcement of dry and slightly cooler air to move in on Friday. So as we start September, the trend is drier/cooler as low pressure departs via eastern Canada and high pressure approaches via the Great Lakes area. This high will settle across our region Saturday providing a splendid start to the Labor Day weekend. Saturday could be one of those days with a very large diurnal temperature swing. After we get our cool air delivery on Friday, the high center comes right over our region Friday night and early Saturday morning, the clear sky and calm wind will allow for radiational cooling and with a low dew point, the temperature can fall well down into the 50s with maybe even some upper 40s in the deeper interior valleys. During the day on Saturday, the high center will slip off to the south and east and allow a more southerly air flow to take hold, warming us up nicely, especially inland, away from the ocean’s influence, where areas that were near 50 at sunrise can be around 80 by early afternoon. But despite the warm up the humidity will remain low on Saturday and it will be great for outdoor activities. A bit of a stronger southwesterly air flow will take hold on Sunday, pushing higher humidity into the region, with high pressure now to the south, and a cold front approaching from the northwest. This front looks like it may be somewhat moisture starved and not have a lot of support, but I cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm for some areas later Sunday. Still have to tweak the more precise timing of this threat…

TODAY: Showers exit coastal areas before 8:00 a.m. except outer Cape Cod by 9:00 a.m. with clouds giving way to sun and passing clouds west to east. Highs 81-88. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s early in the day, gradually but steadily falling to upper 50s to middle 60s by late in the day. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind W shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Labor Day September 5 should feature cooler weather and a sun/cloud mix with high pressure to the north sending a northeasterly air flow into the region. High pressure sinks to the south with fair weather and a warming trend September 6-8 before the next frontal boundary arrives with a shower threat and higher humidity at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

As we reach the middle of September we’ll likely be governed by high pressure with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures and we’ll continue to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at least increase the surf along the coastline.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-31-2022

Down to the last couple days of August, and we’ve had our share of heat this month. We’ll get one more hot day today ahead of an approaching cold front, with high pressure offshore. Humidity will be up as well. The timing of the cold front though is late, and that means that thunderstorms that form well west and northwest of our region won’t get here before day’s end, and we’ll end up with remnant activity in the late night / overnight hours, to around dawn on Wednesday as the front pushes through from west to east. There still can be a few thunderstorms then, but most areas will see showers, or even nothing at all other than just some cloudiness moving through. Wednesday, it will still be a warm day (a bit less hot than today) but the humidity will noticeably drop behind the front. We’ll still have a bit of a trough moving through the Northeast both Wednesday and Thursday, and another frontal boundary still has to come through at some point Thursday. This boundary will have very little moisture to work with so I’m not expecting showers with it, just some clouds, and a transition to a cooler air mass through Friday. High pressure builds in with a great start to the holiday weekend on Saturday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 86-93. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible mainly I-95 westward late evening / overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm near eastern coastal areas around dawn, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

High pressure sinks to the south with fair and warm weather for September 4, then a cold front travels through, likely dry, and Canadian high pressure continues with fair weather but with cooler air to finish off the Labor Day weekend on September 5. This high should then sink to the south with fair weather and a warm-up later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

We’ll watch for a frontal boundary crossing with a possible shower around September 9 and possibly some offshore tropical activity later in the period, otherwise high pressure should dominate with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-30-2022

Similar to both weekend mornings, a large area of stratus clouds sits mainly over inland locations with a few patchy clouds elsewhere to start the day. A southwesterly air flow developing over the region is pushing this stratus layer to the northeast but as the morning goes on it will erode away and dissipate, and today’s diurnal cloud development will be less than the previous 2 days when we had a northeast breeze Saturday and southeast breeze Sunday. Today’s southwest wind will transport warmer to hotter air into the region and it will feel a little bit more like the middle of summer. But now you’re noticing, that sun angle – not quite as high as it once was. And it’s not setting after 8 p.m. not even after 7:30 pm. anymore but earlier and earlier in the 7:00 p.m. hour. But most areas will see it set today as we’ll have far fewer clouds about during this evening. The high pressure heat pump will be at it again Tuesday which will be a pretty warm to hot and somewhat humid day by late August standards. A cold front approaching the region will not do so quickly enough to send any showers or thunderstorms into the WHW forecast area before the day is over. We’ll see some clouds in the western sky later in the day from this activity to our west, but the remains of it will be all that make it through here overnight. The cold front responsible for it will still be moving through the region Wednesday morning, so the chance of showers or even a brief thunderstorm will still be there mainly for southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI through about midday. In addition, during the morning a little wave of low pressure moving by Cape Cod may toss a swath of showers up across that region. But Wednesday afternoon, drier air arrives, and while it will be quite a warm day, you’ll notice the dew point going down as the day goes on, once that front goes by. Any additional afternoon showers on Wednesday look like they will be confined to the mountains to our north. So ends August, and September will begin on a dry and slightly cooler note Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds into the region from Canada.

TODAY: Early morning clouds abundant in parts of eastern MA much of central MA, RI, and eastern CT, with more sunshine elsewhere, then sunshine dominant thereafter with just some passing fair weather clouds. Highs 84-91, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except a few patches of low clouds and ground fog. Lows 64-71, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 86-93. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible mainly I-95 westward. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy until midday with a shower or thunderstorm possible I-95 eastward, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure will be the dominant force for Labor Day Weekend September 3-5 with warming Saturday and Sunday as high pressure overhead sinks to the south, and then a frontal boundary will come through likely dry and Canadian high pressure will bring slightly cooler air for Monday. Fair weather should continue into late period with another warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

We’ll watch for a frontal boundary crossing with a possible shower around September 9 and possibly some offshore tropical activity later in the period, otherwise high pressure should dominate with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-29-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Early this morning a stratus blanket sits over much of the region but this has already been eroding from east to west so that many eastern MA and RI areas as well as the NH Seacoast are seeing sunshine, and this is progressing inland with time and this general trend will continue. Although a few clouds may be stubborn in some areas and others can redevelop in the form of cumulus clouds as the sun’s heating increases, similar to yesterday. All in all, we end up with a sun/cloud mix but a rather nice day, thanks to high pressure centered to our east. This high will slip southward into the “Bermuda High” position to start off the week, so our heat and humidity levels will increase Monday into Tuesday, but not close to the levels of previous hot spells this summer. Also, it will be rather short-lived as a cold front approaches and passes through the region between late Tuesday and midday Wednesday, based on current expected timing. This timing is limiting for showers and thunderstorms, with most activity during the day Tuesday to our west and north, diminishing before it arrives in this area, and most of Wednesday’s activity firing up to our east if the front is quick enough, and possibly over southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI if the front is just a little slower, with activity favoring the morning and midday. Today’s forecast update will take into account either possibility and then of course it will be fine-tuned as we get closer with the help of short-range guidance early in the week. Thursday is the first day of September and on cue a Canadian high pressure area will deliver us a fresh air mass from our neighbors to the north, for the first day of meteorological autumn.

TODAY: Clouds dominate inland areas and parts of the South Coast early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day thunderstorm chance north and west. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 67-73. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers possible favoring southern and eastern areas early in the day. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible through midday southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s but lowering slowly. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

High pressure is expected to dominate with fair weather and a slow warming trend from September 2-5 which includes all of Labor Day Weekend. A frontal boundary may get closer with higher humidity and a shower threat by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

A frontal boundary may be close by early in the period with a shower threat, then high pressure takes over with another stretch of fair weather, starting cooler than warming up. We may have to watch the waters to our south and/or southeast for a tropical system out there by later in the period as there are signs of a little more activity in the tropics in the days to come and somewhat more reliable medium range guidance has been putting systems out there around that time. At this time of year it’s always necessary to pay attention to this regardless of how quiet or active the season has been thus far.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)

On this final weekend of August we enter the final 5-day stretch of meteorological summer. But don’t worry too much, if you are not ready to say goodbye to summer you can wait until the end of tourist summer, which is September 5 (Labor Day), or stretch your summer out even longer by waiting until the actual end of summer on September 22 (the autumnal equinox). If you wanted to say goodbye to “solar summer” (the 3-month period with the most sunlight), you’re too late. That ended on August 7. Maybe next year! But anyway, what do the last 5 days of meteorological summer look like, weather-wise? The weekend weather will be dominated by high pressure that is centered to our north today with a light northeasterly air flow, then with its center shifting to the east of the region Sunday, the air flow will shift more to southeasterly. This provides fair and seasonable weather, coolest maximum temperatures along the coast and warmest over the interior, and not bone-dry but tolerable humidity levels. Early in the week, high pressure sinks southward, into a position to deliver us more heat and higher humidity. We won’t be returning to the high heat levels previously seen in the summer, but nevertheless some areas make a run at 90 Monday and possibly crack it Tuesday. We’ll be watching the approach of a cold front later Tuesday that should be passing through the region during Wednesday. The details to be worked out regarding this include a more precise frontal timing and any rounds of showers and thunderstorms that occur. Right now leaning toward most of the unsettled weather being in northern and western portions of the WHW forecast area late Tuesday and pushing east and south through early Wednesday, with an additional shower or thunderstorm possible during the day Wednesday. Obviously, more fine-tuning is going to be needed for this part of the forecast.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind E under 10 MPH to calm.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day thunderstorm chance north and west. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 67-73. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers possible favoring south and easterly areas early in the day. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible midday or afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s but lowering slowly. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

High pressure builds in and may dominate this entire period with dry weather, a cool-down at first and maybe at the end of the period again, with a warmer spike between them.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

There remain some uncertainties about the pattern here, but the latest trends are for high pressure to be dominant with dry weather much of if not all of the time and near to above normal temperatures. This isn’t a high confidence forecast though. At this time of year, interactions of even distant tropical cyclones on the larger scale pattern and even our own closer-by tropics, which have been quiet, can become a factor in a short period of time.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-27-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30)

Our focus today will be on the thunderstorm chance for the region. Even as I write this update in the 7:00 a.m. hour the short range guidance differs on timing and even coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the area today. Based on this, and knowing the fickle nature of convection anyway, my idea is to forecast isolated showers/storms for the first part of the afternoon anywhere north and west of Boston, and then one or two line-segments or clusters of storms any time from late afternoon through early evening, with the heaviest favoring being in central to northeastern MA and southern NH. We’ll have to watch how far any initial batch can perpetuate itself into areas further south and east as it may have to rely on an outflow boundary and no other focus other than the pre-frontal trough that helps initiate it. Some of the short range guidance develops additional showers and storms in the early to mid evening hours especially along to south of I-90, and some of this could survive toward the South Coast later in the evening. We’ll just have to watch how things evolve and kick into now-cast mode when needed. As a side note, I’ll be in southwestern MA much of today and will try to monitor from there as best I can – though I may have limited access. Thunderstorms have the capability to be severe today, so if you do have outdoor plans or will be traveling, please keep this in mind. Main threat is damaging wind, with hail being a lesser threat. Any storm can produce torrential rain which can drop visibility very low and cause quick flooding, and lightning as well which are always dangers whether a storm is deemed severe or not. Activity settles down by later tonight and the frontal boundary glides through the region under cover of darkness, exiting via the South Coast early Saturday. While the frontal boundary won’t sit all that far to our south this upcoming weekend, it looks like it won’t really have the ability to generate any further activity that would impact our region, so it looks like a fair weather weekend, governed by high pressure that will first be bridged across the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday, with a north to east wind in our region, and then slide its way to our east bringing a southeasterly air flow to us on Sunday. This will turn more southerly Monday as the high drifts to the south and we warm up most efficiently at that time. One more bout of heat may be ours for Tuesday as the high drifts down into the favored location off the Atlantic Coast to deliver that to us. Wildcard for Tuesday: How fast does the next front approach. If it’s quick, we have the thunderstorm chance later in the day, if not, it’s just a fair but very warm to hot day. I’ll look more at that in the coming few days.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers/thunderstorms early afternoon mainly southwestern NH and central MA, then showers/thunderstorms more likely in one or two waves favoring central to northeastern MA and southern NH mid afternoon to early evening with a few storms probably into northeastern CT and northern RI to interior southeastern MA by then. Any storms can be severe with damaging wind gusts. Highs 83-90, cooler in some South Coast locations. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms evening, favoring the I-90 region southward. Patchy fog developing. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW overnight.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day thunderstorm chance north and west. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

With uncertain timing of the next frontal boundary impacting the region will include the chance of showers/thunderstorms for August 31 with high humidity. Cooling/drying to start September as low pressure departs via eastern Canada and high pressure follows it, then later in the period shifts to the south allowing the region to warm up again.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

No change from yesterday’s idea. There’s a little uncertainty in the pattern as some tropical activity from the western Pacific may have a hand in altering the pattern currently shown on medium range guidance. For now, calling for a mainly dry weather pattern with some up and down temperatures and only briefly unsettled weather at some point during the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-26-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)

Pretty typical late summer weather will be ours as we head down the home stretch of August. First, high pressure provides a fair and warm day today with low to moderate humidity. This high slips offshore and the humidity comes up a bit, but shy of oppressive levels, on Friday. We’ll see a few air mass showers and thunderstorms start to pop up during the afternoon, and the approach of a cold front can help organize some of these showers and storms into line segments scattered around the area later in the day and into the evening hours. We’ll have to watch for a few strong to locally severe storms, but it will not be a widespread outbreak of severe weather. If you have outdoor plans, just keep a close watch on the sky and a reliable radar app if possible. The actual cold front will probably not clear the region until sometime early Saturday morning but I do think any shower activity will be limited to practically non-existent once the evening activity is gone. Saturday itself turns out to be a nice day, but noticeably cooler with a northerly to easterly air flow as high pressure bridges itself from the Great Lakes to northern Maine, centered in the St. Lawrence Valley. This high will bubble eastward and bring us an easterly to southeasterly air flow on Sunday, a day that will feature a few clouds but fair weather, a tiny increase in humidity (hardly noticeable), coolest but comfortable on the coast, and a little warmer over the interior away from the ocean’s effect. High pressure remains in control Monday, but centered to our east it will provide a southerly wind with a little more warmth and humidity here.

TODAY: Patchy clouds early morning interior southern MA and parts of CT/RI, otherwise mostly sunny, then additional cloud patches west to east later. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 Cape Cod & immediate coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point nearing 60. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90. Dew point climbing through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog and isolated showers overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW overnight.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 80-87 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A shot of very warm to hotter air for the final 2 days of August, but the timing of a frontal boundary is uncertain for both showers and thunderstorms as well as an air mass change. There will be details to iron out. Dry weather for the first few days of September, starting cooler then warming up.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

There’s a little uncertainty in the pattern as some tropical activity from the western Pacific may have a hand in altering the pattern currently shown on medium range guidance. For now, calling for a mainly dry weather pattern with some up and down temperatures and only briefly unsettled weather at some point during the period. Will iron out the details with time.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-25-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)

After 2 days of unsettled weather the WHW forecast area has ended up with a pretty uneven rainfall distribution, and there is no real surprise about that. This is the nature of convective precipitation, and in a case where some of it was very heavy and occurred over similar areas during 2 days, some amounts were very heavy, 5+ inches in some cases, while other areas came away with modest amounts of under 1 inch. So in spot locations, flooding aside, we’ve seen some solid drought relief. Unfortunately, it was not regionwide relief, so we will still find ourselves in drought in general, and will need several more good episodes of precipitation going forward to lift us out of this drought – something that, as previously stated – needs time. You don’t want it all at once as it often does lead to flooding issues and other problems. But we got what we got, where we got it, and now we move on… Fair weather and the feel of summer returns over the next couple days. Today it warms up and is still a little on the humid side to start with drier air to come later. We still have a fair amount of clouds around to start, but these will reduce. However the atmosphere remains just unstable enough that a pop up shower or two can’t be ruled out mainly across interior locations, favoring north of I-90, this afternoon. As high pressure gains control, Thursday ends up quite warm but even less humid. A weak warm front may send some cloudiness into the region later Thursday and cannot rule out a shower at night with the front, leading to a summery day on Friday in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. There’s still a few days to fine-tune the timing on that front but we will end up with a shower or thunderstorm threat from it, right now leaning toward late-day or evening/night and north and west of Boston, weakening as it pushes east and southeast through the early hours of Saturday, setting up what looks like a decent final weekend of August. High pressure’s position to our north would bring us somewhat cooler air and low humidity for Saturday then a slight up-tick in humidity as the high slides to a position east of New England by Sunday.

TODAY: Early to mid morning clouds dominate areas away from South Coast with more sun South Coast, then a sun/cloud mix with a slight chance of a pop up shower this afternoon interior locations. Highs 77-84. Dew point lowering from 60s to 50s. Wind variable to NW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun much of day, more clouds late. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible mainly well west and north of Boston. Lows 60-67. Dew point nearing 60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible evening, may linger near the South Coast overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s except 60+ South Coast. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Warm, some increase in humidity August 29-31, maybe a shower or thunderstorm with a frontal system around August 31. A shot of cooler air may be here in time to start September from Canadian high pressure.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

Early indications are for high pressure to dominate much of this period with dry weather, starting seasonable then warming up. Maybe a little unsettled weather during the cooler to warmer transition.