DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

A southerly air flow brings milder air but more cloudiness for this final day of October. For Halloween evening fun, expect dry and mild conditions. It won’t be until after midnight that some scattered rain showers make their way into the area with a low pressure disturbance moving in. This will linger about until around midday Tuesday before pushing off to the east, but the first day of November will also be a mild day. It won’t be until a cold front slides slowly through the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday that we’ll see a wind shift to north and northeast and a modest cool-down with fair weather for midweek. This will be followed by a moderation in temperature late week as the high center that initially will be to our north has settled to the south and east of the area.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers overnight. Patchy fog toward dawn. Lows 48-55. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers through midday. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind shifting to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

High pressure sits south of the region but keeps control of our weather with fair and mild conditions for the November 5-6 weekend. Watching for a cold front to bring the chance of rain showers November 7 followed by fair and cooler weather toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Medium range model conflict has arisen with a couple models shifting to a colder pattern quickly while others keep it milder with brief cool shots. Leaning toward the latter at this point but open to shifting mode of thinking. Best chance of precipitation comes around mid period if my current thoughts are on track.

This is the new version of the separate post for discussing the Covid 19 pandemic and related issues. For now, probably until it’s no longer needed (declared end of pandemic or shortly after), I will set up one of these per week to cover the Monday through Sunday time period. Previously, comments on any blog post would automatically close after 3 days. I have adjusted the settings on WordPress to keep them open through 7 days, so you will be able to come back to this post through the week to add comments. Just a reminder to keep your conversations civil even if a strong difference of opinion exists. We can all agree to disagree while still expressing our views. While I don’t allow political discussion on the weather page, I realize a little bit of politics can easily enter the Covid discussion. Just remember to keep that civil as well. Let me know if you have any questions about this new format for the Covid post. I’ll try to check in at least once a day.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

High pressure sat atop us overnight with clear, calm, chilly conditions. Early mornings like this at this time of year promote frosty grass and patches of fog in low elevations. That’s how the morning starts out, but a quick warm-up today erases all of that and leads to a pleasantly mild afternoon with lots of sun, filtered later in the day by some high clouds. These high clouds are in advance of a weak disturbance which will bring more cloudiness to the region, but not enough moisture for any rainfall on Halloween during the day and evening – so the outlook for this has improved about as much as it can. By late Monday night / early Tuesday morning, a few rain showers and some patches of fog will be about as the disturbances moves in and low level moisture increases on a light southerly wind. These showers may be around at times as we start November on Tuesday, but this is not going to be a widespread rainfall event as the system will be falling apart as it passes and transferring energy to an offshore system. That system will move away and high pressure regains control of the weather by midweek.

TODAY: Sunshine dominates – more high clouds late. Highs 60-67. Wind calm then SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Patchy fog interior lower elevations and also areas of fog possible near the South Coast overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds – intervals of sun. Highs 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of passing rain showers overnight. Patchy fog late evening and overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

High pressure shifts to the south and east but maintains control of the weather with fair weather and above normal temperatures November 4-6. Cold front passing through brings a rain shower threat during November 7, based on current timing, followed by fair, cooler weather at period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

A fair, cool start, then moderating as high pressure drifts across the region through mid period, then the indications are for a system to approach later in the period with increased rainfall chances – but low confidence on this part of the outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-30-2022

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

High pressure will continue to be the dominant force for the weekend with nice weather – chilly mornings, a cool day today, and a milder day Sunday. Sunshine will dominate both days but give way to more clouds later Sunday as a disturbance approaches. At one time some of the our guidance wanted to turn that approaching system into one to give us a rainy Halloween, but this one is not going to be all that big a deal, and may just deliver a few rain showers, mainly after trick-or-treat time Monday night. After that it departs the region Tuesday and high pressure retakes the weather reins.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog. Frost likely. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 54-61. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late evening and overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52 Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

High pressure is expected to be dominant for much of this period with above normal temperatures, until the end of the period when an approaching front may bring rain showers to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Early and late period cooler shots from Canada with a little more jet stream over the Northeast. Overall pattern looks fairly dry through.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-29-2022

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

An area of high pressure will bring us fair weather through the weekend. The coolest daytime will be today, with a moderating trend this weekend. Nights will be quite chilly through Saturday night, but Sunday night not as much as there will be a lot more cloudiness, acting as a blanket, as well as a milder southerly air flow at that time. This is in advance of a weak disturbance which brings the chance of some rain shower activity Monday. Right now, this system looks rather minor to me and not threatening a Halloween wash-out. There will likely be many hours of rain-free weather and we can fine-tune those details during the course of the weekend. Tuesday, high pressure builds back in with fair weather to start November.

TODAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by some high clouds this morning and possibly briefly interrupted by passing fair weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially at the coast.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH, then calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind calm, then E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52 Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

High pressure is expected to be dominant for much of this period with a brief cool-down, then milder again. The very end of the period may see the approach of a cold front with a rain shower threat.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Early and late period cooler shots from Canada with a little more jet stream over the Northeast. Overall pattern looks fairly dry through.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)

High pressure builds in and controls our weather for the next several days, through the weekend in fact. We start rather mild today with a drying westerly breeze, but as the center of the high bridges to our north tonight and Friday, a wind shift to northeast will bring cooler air into the region. Weekend temperatures will be generally seasonable with nice weather for outdoor activities. By Monday, Halloween, we’ll be on the look-out for some unsettled weather as the high gives way to an approaching trough of low pressure and some increased moisture from the south and southwest. It’s uncertain at this point how much, if any, rainfall will make it into our region before the end of the day or sometime in the evening, but this will be tweaked and fine-tuned over the next few days, as it has an impact on Halloween evening trick-or-treat for cities and towns that do it on that day.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH, then calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind calm, then E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers by late-day. Highs 57-64. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

November starts unsettled with a rain chance, then it dries out rather quickly thereafter and high pressure takes over with fair weather, initially seasonable temperatures then a moderating trend to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

This outlook is updated to indicate a stronger high pressure ridge dominating the East Coast with fair weather and above normal temperatures for our region at least for the early to middle portion of the period before we may get a push of cooler air from Canada as the flow flattens out with a little stronger jet stream in the Northeast.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-27-2022

Our unsettled stretch continues. Many areas remain socked in with fog and this will hang around for a good portion of the day with saturated air. Additionally, showers have increased again in the region in response to a broad trough over the region. Some additional moisture gets added to the system today via low pressure moving north northwestward in the offshore waters to our southeast – not a direct hit by the low, but close enough to have influence, before this system heads toward eastern Canada and an upper level trough swings through with a surface cold front early Thursday. This will put an end to the unsettled weather and provide us with a total turn-around into sunshine and mild air for Thursday – the easy pick of the week in terms of “good” weather. A secondary boundary will cross the region that evening and as high pressure bridges north of our region, the wind, which initially blows from the west and northwest, will shift to north and northeast, transporting much cooler air into the region by Friday, but with dry weather. This dry weather will continue through the coming weekend too as high pressure builds right into and over the region.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain showers likely through early afternoon, some of which can be heavy, then tapering off from south to north later in the day. Highs 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. An additional passing rain shower possible this evening and another chance overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine with a few passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: A few clouds may pass through early, otherwise clear. Lows 40-47. Wind NW to N up 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39, may be colder in some interior lower elevations. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

High pressure gives way to another low pressure system as we head into the final hours of October but currently optimistic that while we see clouds arrive for Halloween we don’t see much if any rainfall as dry air holds on. Stronger low pressure push November 1-2 with a period or two of rain. Drier weather returns for November 3-4 as high pressure retakes control. Temperatures should average fairly close to or slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Potential unsettled weather to start the period, then high pressure is expected to take over with dry and seasonably cool weather thereafter.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-26-2022

High pressure to the east attempts to nose into our region today and will limit the shower chance compared to yesterday, but sun will also be limited with lots of moisture hanging around. In fact many areas start the day socked in with fog, but that will thin out eventually. So not a great day today, but not a wash-out either. Low pressure offshore will be moving north northwest and will be close enough to bring more widespread showers into the region for a while Wednesday, before heading to Canada. As this does so, it will join with another low moving in from the west into a stronger eastern Canada storm system. A cold front trailing from the eastward-moving low will cross our region, returning fair weather to the region for late week. It will be mildest Thursday before a secondary boundary comes through in the evening and delivers cooler air for Friday and Saturday, but with nice dry weather as high pressure takes over, centered north of this area.

TODAY: Foggy start for many areas, otherwise mostly cloudy with a few sun breaks possible. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers, especially overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Highs 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

High pressure is expected to bring fair weather and generally seasonable air to the region for the last 2 days of October before the weather turns unsettled with the arrival of a low pressure trough to start off November.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Potential unsettled weather to start the period, then high pressure is expected to take over with dry and seasonably cool weather thereafter.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-25-2022

A battle between low pressure and high pressure will be won by low pressure into midweek, as a trough impacts the region with occasional wet weather through Wednesday, with the highest chance of showers in any given location today and Wednesday. This will be as 2 different lows are closest to or over the region. Tuesday brings a reduced chance as a little nosing in of high pressure from the east takes place, but still not a “great” weather day. Thursday, a cold front pushes everything off to the east, and we improve, but the mild air will still be in place and it won’t be until a secondary front crosses the region that cooler air will arrive for the end of the week.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle.Occasional to numerous showers, especially this afternoon including isolated thunderstorms. Highs 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Showers likely in the evening including the chance of thunder. Lows 48-55. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers, especially overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Highs 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

High pressure is expected to bring fair weather and generally seasonable air to the region for the last 3 days of October before the weather turns unsettled with the arrival of a low pressure trough to start off November.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

A little uncertainty in this period. For now going with a drier overall pattern but another interval of unsettled weather may take place somewhere mid to late period with another trough / disturbance combo near the East Coast.