C-19 Chat Post – 10-24-2022

A brief update for the Sunday blog post. Not many adjustments to the previous forecast discussion. Saturday’s splendid autumn weather has given way to a less-nice Sunday with lots of clouds, and eventually some rain moving into the region. In fact it’s already around the islands and parts of Cape Cod and the rain shield will push more to the north and northwest with time, while battling some dry air in place. By evening and tonight, most areas will have seen some rainfall and this occasional wet weather will continue through Monday in response to a low pressure area making a visit from the south. This system moves off to the northeast and weakens Tuesday but we’re left with a trough in the vicinity into midweek and additional shower chances at times, until a cold front pushes it all off to the east on Thursday.

TODAY: Clouds thicken. Rain at times South Coast to MA South Shore mid morning on. Patches of light rain push through Boston area west and north later in the day but much of day dry in these areas. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Foggy areas – possibly dense. Highs 55-62. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Fog. Overcast. Drizzle possible. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds. Foggy areas early. Chance of a shower. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers, especially overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers. Areas of fog. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

Have to watch offshore storm early in the period, otherwise high pressure should be in general control with dry weather to finish off October, cool to start then moderating. November may start with unsettled weather arriving.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

A trough of low pressure brings unsettled weather to the region, especially for the first part of the period, before trending back to fair weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-23-2022

As we enter the 4th weekend of October, we continue that trend of nice weekend weather, but this time not quite making it all the way through. Today, governed by high pressure to the southeast, is going to be sun-filled and fairly mild, after a cool start. Clouds move in tonight and early Sunday ahead of a low pressure area advancing up from the south, but this system is not going to make a direct impact as a formidable system, but is rather more in the shape of an inverted low pressure trough forming into a weak low. It will toss a rain shield this way which has to battle dry air in place, so this system probably looks worse on model guidance than it will on radar and in reality. That said, the rain chance does increase during the morning on Sunday from the South Coast to the MA South Shore, but this swath of rain will struggle to move northward as the day goes on, probably doing so in drying-up patches that only send some very light rain to the surface. So all in all a good portion of the region gets through Sunday without much if any rainfall. Finally Sunday night into Monday the atmosphere moistens up enough to support more rainfall further west and north, but by then this initial batch of moisture will be peeling off to the east via the upper winds. We’ll stay in the unsettled weather as the lower atmosphere does saturate through Monday with some periods of rain and drizzle under an overcast. And the unsettled pattern is going to try to hang on into the middle of coming week as well as a trough will be nearby and we’ll have to watch for another low pressure area drifting northward this way by Wednesday, which has a higher chance of becoming at least an occasionally wet day here.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds move in. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Rain at times South Coast to MA South Shore mid morning on. Patches of light rain push through Boston area west and north later in the day but much of day dry in these areas. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Foggy areas – possibly dense. Highs 55-62. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Fog. Overcast. Drizzle possible. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds. Foggy areas early. Chance of a shower. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of rain, especially overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Rain shower chance very early in the period as a frontal boundary moves through, then it looks like high pressure takes over with mainly dry weather, a cool shot then a moderating trend for the final days of October.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Low pressure trough moves in with a turn to unsettled weather for the early days of November – timing and detail to be worked out.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-22-2022

High pressure hangs on through Saturday with fair weather, cool mornings and milder afternoons – quite nice for this time of year. While this weekend will not be excellent from start to finish like the previous couple, there are some parts of the forecast area that will squeak in a dry Sunday despite a thickening overcast and rain moving into some areas. Still feeling that the rain shield from a northward-advancing low pressure area reaches the South Coast and South Shore of MA initially during the afternoon on Sunday, but areas to the west and north stay rain-free until end-of-day or evening. This wet weather will be with us through Monday, though a lot of the rainfall may peel off to the east of the region with just lighter rainfall and areas of drizzle and fog here. We’ll also have to watch for the development of fairly dense fog as Monday rolls along with the arrival of higher humidity, making the temperature / dew point match in much of the region. The wind field may be weak enough that fog can easily form and persist. Wondering if this may have an impact on the MNF game in Foxboro more than any chance of rainfall. We’ll have to see how that evolves. Regardless, Tuesday presents slight improvement but still lots of clouds around with the possibility of a few showers as the disturbance sits nearby while weakening.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Rain possible mainly South Coast to I-90 belt. Chance of rain further north later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Foggy areas – possibly dense. Highs 55-62. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Fog. Overcast. Drizzle possible. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds. Foggy areas early. Chance of a shower. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Unsettled weather for the first couple days of this period with the old disturbance sitting nearby and a frontal system sweeping through from west to east. Lower confidence thereafter but hints of high pressure trying to regain control of the weather with fair weather, and initial cool shot then moderation.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Low confidence outlook. Leaning toward dry weather to end the month of October and then some unsettled weather returning in the early days of November with a slower moving pattern and a trough returning to the northeastern US.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-21-2022

High pressure will continue to keep control of our weather through Saturday with fair weather and a continued moderating temperature trend. An inverted trough of low pressure to the south New England will poke its nose into our business before the weekend is over, though, ending our run of nice weather. While some guidance is barging the rain in here by early Sunday, my current feeling is that while the clouds will overtake the region hastily, we may not see much in the way of rainfall that early unless you are south of Boston, which may be wet as early as the morning or midday with an initial burst of moisture. Areas to the west and north may not see it until the end of the day or evening hours. This detail will need fine-tuning. For now, just expect the weather to go downhill for the second half of the weekend in terms of at least cooler air with an easterly air flow, and lots of clouds, and wet weather arriving sooner or later. The unsettled weather continues into Monday with the inverted trough still bringing an onshore flow and periods of rain and drizzle to the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Rain possible mainly South Coast to I-90 belt. Chance of rain further north later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 53-58. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

The weather may remain somewhat unsettled early in the period as the trough over the region weakens but hangs in place, waiting to be swept offshore by a cold front from the west sometime in the October 26-27 window. So the possibility of rain showers will be around during this time. Brief drying follows, but another low pressure system may bring additional rainfall to the region by the end of the period. This is a different outlook than what it appeared to be previously, and is not a high confidence forecast at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Very low confidence outlook. Leaning toward dry, cool weather to end the month, and another bout of unsettled weather from a low pressure system in the first days of November.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-20-2022

High pressure provides fair weather with a moderating temperature trend into the weekend, as the high center settles to the south and east of New England. During Sunday we’re going to see a wind shift to northeast and an increase in clouds from south to north (and maybe some lower ocean clouds near the coast) as low pressure approaches from the south.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45.Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Low pressure brings a good chance of rain October 24 then decays and lifts through the region with additional rain showers possible on October 25. A frontal boundary from the west may bring a rain shower at some point in the October 26-27 window otherwise the trend is back to fair and mild weather for the waning days of the month as the mean trough stays to the west and high pressure off the US East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

The large scale pattern doesn’t change all that much but may start to get a little more amplified, so we’ll have to watch for a more important storm system to start taking shape somewhere in the eastern US and our weather as a result will depend on where it is in proximity to this location. Right now I see an opportunity for one or two spokes of moisture to reach the region with rain chances but no full-fledged storm arrival. Something to watch the evolution of in the days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-19-2022

A few hours of unsettled weather to start the day today as a slow-moving cold front clears the coast. By later in the day, drier air will be making its return, and high pressure then takes over at the surface while a low pressure trough remains to our west from mid to late week. Initially, we cool down with the return of dry air for midweek, then warm up again as surface high pressure shifts to the southeast of New England by late week.

TODAY: Cloudy into midday with occasional rain showers and patchy fog. Breaking clouds leading to periods of sun afternoon – more sun by late day. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, becoming more gusty by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42.Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)

High pressure hangs on with fair and mild weather expected to finish off the weekend October 23. Low pressure from the south brings the chance of rain for October 24 then weakens over the region while a frontal boundary moves in from the west with a chance of rain showers during October 25. The end of this forecast period is more uncertain. The pattern will still feature a trough of low pressure Midwest and Great Lakes and high pressure to the east. For our area this can mean either fair weather or additional unsettled weather as disturbances from the trough eject eastward, but can be thwarted by the high pressure area. For now, leaning toward fair weather over foul, but will have to keep an eye on it.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

The uncertainty that presents itself later in the 6-10 day period continues into the 11-15 day period as well with no big change in the overall weather pattern, so while we have some unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures it’s not possible to even attempt to nail down any details this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-18-2022

Our one bout of unsettled weather comes in the early part of this week. The large scale weather pattern still features a trough that spends most of its time center to our west in the Great Lakes and Midwest but sends the occasional disturbance our way. One such is moving in today and will take until about the middle of the day Tuesday to complete its journey across our region, bringing occasional wet weather with it this afternoon through Tuesday morning. High pressure approaches by midweek with cooler air but a return to dry weather. The high starts to shift to the east with continued fair weather but a late-week moderating temperature trend getting underway.

TODAY: Clouds thicken up – occasional rain showers arriving this afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and periods of rain showers. Thunderstorms also possible. Lows 46-53. Wind S up to 15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy into midday with occasional rain showers and patchy fog. Breaking clouds leading to periods of sun afternoon – more sun by late day. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, becoming more gusty by late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42.Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Mean trough position stays to the west for this period with surface high pressure in control here providing fair weather and moderating temperatures through the October 22-23 weekend. Continuing to watch potential low pressure to the south early the following week and a frontal system / disturbance moving in from the west as well later in the period with the next threat of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)

No big changes in the pattern with the mean trough position oscillating between the Great Lakes / Upper Midwest and the Northeast. Except one or two fairly brief periods of unsettled weather here but dry weather much of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-17-2022