C-19 Chat Post – 10-9-2022

The cold front that went through late yesterday slowed down temporarily as a little low pressure area ripples along it early today, keeping clouds in place in eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT, along with some showers to start the day from the MA South Shore into eastern RI eastward to Cape Cod. These will exit by mid to late morning and clearing will continue to move in from the west, with the remainder of the day featuring sun and passing fair weather clouds and the true feel of fall with cool air and a developing breeze. Tonight is going to be the coldest night of the season so far, with many areas dropping below 40 for the first time since last spring. Locations that see the wind drop off adequately will run a high chance of seeing their first frost of the season, but this may be prevented in some areas by the breeze and air that is too dry, as well as some coastal and urban areas which will not be cold enough for it either way. Regardless, Sunday starts with a chill and will also be a cool day with a breeze, maybe up a few degrees for high temps over what we see today. There will be a little boundary crossing the region during the afternoon and evening – basically the remains of a secondary cold front – that will bring some cloud patches, but not expecting any showers with it. High pressure builds in then eventually shifts to the south and east from Monday through Wednesday with fair weather and a moderating temperature trend.

TODAY: Clouds early to mid morning eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI, including showers from eastern RI across southeastern MA at first. Otherwise, sun and passing clouds. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost, especially away from the coast and in lower elevation suburban and rural areas. Lows 28-35 with coldest in the deepest valley areas, except 36-43 coastal plain and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun and patchy clouds during the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 44-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

A trough of low pressure will approach from the west then cross the region October 13-14, first with fair and mild weather, then with rain showers likely as a cold front moves into and across the region. This front exits the coast with a narrow area of high pressure building in for the October 15-16 weekend and I am expecting dry and seasonably cool weather at that time. Another trough approaches at the end of the period and may bring additional unsettled weather to the region by then.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

The trend on medium range guidance has been to slow the progression of the pattern slightly, with a trough in the Great Lakes to Northeast, far enough west for a threat of additional unsettled weather early this period, followed by a drying trend. Temperatures may be milder early in the period before returning to near to below normal. This outlook is only moderate confidence.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-8-2022

Big difference yesterday when we got that west and southwest breeze with high pressure, coming after a stretch of cool, damp, unsettled weather. Almost felt like mid summer for a bit there, but you can’t fool us, mother nature! We were paying attention to that ever-lowering sun angle and earlier sunset time! But that aside, we can get some very nice weather at this time of year too, as yesterday showed us, and today will again for the most part. Today we deal with early clouds from a departing weak disturbance, but go back to lots of sun for several hours, and another warm-up to 70+ for many, but now it’s limited. A cold front charges across the region late in the day and this evening, bringing a few more clouds and perhaps a passing rain shower to some areas, but for all areas a fresh Canadian cool air mass arrives behind the front overnight and for our weekend. Although this time, the cool air will not be accompanied by overcast skies or an onshore flow with wet weather. This time it comes with bright sun, passing clouds, dry air, a gusty breeze (especially Saturday) but the classic feel of New England autumn. So while you’ll need an extra layer or two, you can still go out and enjoy your weekend autumn activities if you desire! In fact, some areas that see the wind drop off adequately and outside of urban and coastal influence may see their first frost Saturday night / Sunday morning. Technically, this should fall shy of being a freeze, but you know at this time of year your time is limited before that comes… Look for the nice weather to continue into early next week too, but as high pressure slips off to the south and east, we’ll see temperature moderation. There will be an old frontal boundary though that slides through the region on Monday and while I don’t expect this to “mess up” the weather in terms of rainfall, it may help put a few more clouds in the sky on that day. Another high pressure area in eastern Canada doesn’t look like it will be strong enough this time to push that boundary cleanly though and it will just dissipate over the region as that high just joins the one sitting to the south. Long story short, after our recent unsettled spell, it’s back to a dry stretch. We’ll continue to see our foliage colors coming in especially with the cooler days / chilly nights, but you still have to head north if you want peak color. Although we seem to be running earlier than the recent average, our turn for peak color is still a little way off…

TODAY: Early clouds, then lots of sun, then late-day clouds with a slight chance of a quick-passing rain shower especially west and north of Boston. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Early clouds, then clearing. Lows 39-46, coolest interior hills. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost in sheltered lower elevations. Lows 32-37 interior low elevations, 38-43 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing especially interior lower elevations.

SUNDAY: Sunshine except a few patchy clouds return during the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

High pressure offshore, trough to the west but not close enough for unsettled weather yet means a fair and mild October 12. Timing of next trough and frontal system looks like later October 13 to early or middle of October 14 which brings some unsettled weather (rain showers) and mild at first, then the arrival of a new cool air mass. This system will be progressive and the early call is for another very nice weekend for October 15-16 but on the cooler side again.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

Milder trend early period, mid period rain shower threat, then hints of the coldest air of the season so far arriving before the end of the period as a progressive autumn pattern rolls on with the mean trough in the Great Lakes to Northeast.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-7-2022

Low pressure to the south of New England ends its extended stay and pulls off to the east today, and clouds associated with it will follow suit and exit – with that departure taking longest from the MA South Shore to Cape Cod. But by the end of the day pretty much everybody will have seen some sun. Milder air also arrives today as the wind shifts to west and southwest. However, don’t get used to the mild weather. We get one more mild day Friday but a strong cold front crosses the region during the afternoon and evening, maybe producing a brief passing shower. This sets us up for a fair, breezy, and cool October weekend. The chilly air gets reinforced later Sunday with another cold front, keeping the cool dry regime going to start next week as well. This pattern will continue to accelerate fall foliage season, which is likely to be running ahead of normal by up to several days, and so far with strong signs of being more brilliant than last year, at least in some locations. Keep in mind that despite some decent rainfall since September, reducing drought, there are some trees that already went into “survival mode” from drought stress, and may have already dropped some leaves.

TODAY: Clouds give way to more sun, first inland, last Cape Cod region. Highs 66-73. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain shower possible in the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW from west to east by day’s end.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost in sheltered lower elevations. Lows 37-44, possibly colder in sheltered lower elevations. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, but may drop to near calm in sheltered lower elevations..

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A late-day shower possible in southern NH. Highs 56-63. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

High pressure over the region shifts to the south and east early to middle of next week with a moderating temperature trend. Next cold front follows after that, current timing late October 13 to early October 14, with a shower threat and a return to cool / dry weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Some up and down temperatures, tending to average near to below normal, with limited precipitation chances around air mass changes.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-6-2022

In what looks like a pattern a little more typical of springtime, but can sometimes happen in autumn too, low pressure sits south of our area and between it, and high pressure to the north, a persistent broad onshore flow continues today along with bands of rain with embedded heavier showers (maybe even some thunder especially to the south). This rainfall has been a little more expansive in coverage than I had anticipated it might be, but not continuous as there are breaks in it at times. However, there have already been some amounts of 2 inches or higher especially in the South Shore region of MA, and this gets added to today as the rest of the region adds some up as well. While you may be tired of a long stretch of cloudy and occasionally wet weather, this again has been generally beneficial to continue reducing the ongoing drought across most of the region. However if you are looking for some nicer weather, you’re going to see it as vastly improved conditions – fair and milder – take place Thursday into Friday as high pressure shifts quickly over then south of the region in the wake of the departed low. This low, the remains of what was once Hurricane Ian, will have produced a range of after effects from devastating damage in Florida to beneficial rainfall in New England. Don’t get too used to the mild spell, which will be brief. A cold front will whistle across the region from west to east late Friday, maybe producing a rain shower, but definitely opening the door for a chilly October air mass from Canada for our weekend. This will come along with mainly dry weather and a gusty breeze. A secondary cold front crossing the region later Sunday may bring a brief passing rain shower.

TODAY: Overcast with periods of rain and embedded heavier showers, including a possible thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Any rain ending. Lows 45-52. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain shower possible in the afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW from west to east by day’s end.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of frost in sheltered lower elevations. Lows 37-44, possibly colder in sheltered lower elevations. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, but may drop to near calm in sheltered lower elevations..

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon with a slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 56-63. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

High pressure builds across the region early next week with fair weather and a chill, then moderating as the high center shifts offshore to the east. Warm front / cold front combo seems timed for the October 12-13 period when there may be brief light rain / rain showers and milder air, before another shot of chilly air from Canada to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

Any warm-up will be brief as additional shots of chilly air await in Canada to move this way in a west northwesterly air flow with mostly dry weather. Brief precipitation episodes can accompany any air mass change.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-5-2022

Low pressure hangs around to our south while high pressure to the north weakens a little bit over the next 2 days. This will result in occasional rainfall favoring the South Coast, but possible elsewhere as well. Low pressure pulls away by Thursday and a narrow area of high pressure moves in, resulting in fair and milder weather which will last into Friday. This ends when a strong cold front sweeps through the region Friday evening, perhaps bringing a shower, but more notably bringing a much cooler air mass to start the weekend.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain favoring the South Coast region. Highs 54-61. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain eastern CT, RI, and eastern MA. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain eastern and southern MA, RI, eastern CT, diminishing later in the day. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Any rain ending. Lows 45-52. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers possible southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers possible southeastern NH, eastern MA, RI, eastern CT. Lows 42-49. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)

General zonal flow pattern. Secondary cold front passes by later in the weekend (October 9) with a few clouds and another shot of chilly air as another Canadian high moves into the region for October 10-11, but as the high center slips to teh south we’ll see moderating temperatures later in the period with continued dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

A return to mostly below normal temperatures quickly at mid month with another series of cold fronts and Canadian air masses set to visit. Precipitation generally below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-3-2022

Over the weekend, many areas saw some wet weather Saturday and then the focus was windy weather Sunday, and temperatures ran below normal. With low pressure to our south, once associated with Ian, and high pressure to our north, this breezy, cool, and sometimes wet regime will continue for the first few days of this week, basically through Wednesday. Rain-free conditions will be dominant today as the high has a bit more control, but the low will exert more control over our weather later Tuesday and Wednesday when periods of mainly light rain will likely occur, with the greatest chance of this being in eastern and southern MA, RI, and eastern CT, as far as the WHW forecast area goes. The low pressure area finally pulls away by Thursday. At that time, a narrower extension of high pressure builds in for fair and milder weather both Thursday and most of Friday. Late Friday, especially Friday night, we’ll look for a strong cold front to cross the region from west to east with gusty wind and a possible shower.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 10-20 MPH coast with a few higher gusts especially Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 10-20 MPH coast with a few higher gusts, again especially Cape Cod.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light rain by late-day Cape Cod and South Coast region. Highs 54-61. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain eastern CT, RI, and eastern MA. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain eastern and southern MA, RI, eastern CT. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Any rain ending. Lows 45-52. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Evening showers possible southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)

The aforementioned cold front (discussion above) will set up the region for a dry weekend October 8-9 with temperatures generally below normal, a gusty breeze Saturday settling down somewhat Sunday. A reinforcing cold front is expected to pass by sometime early next week keeping the pattern of mostly dry but below normal temperatures going into the middle of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Overall pattern looks like it will be dominated by a northwesterly air flow from Canada with dry, cool weather much of the time, and a brief milder shot between cool pushes.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-3-2022

Yesterday it was more about the remnant rain from Ian, which did deliver over 1 inch for parts of the immediate South Coast, while much less fell elsewhere. Today, it’s more about the wind. The gradient between the elongating low that was once the hurricane and a stronger high pressure area to the north will create a blustery northeasterly wind in our region, along with lots of cloudiness and a continuation of below normal temperatures. Rainfall today though will be largely absent, limited to a spotty and very light around Cape Cod and the Islands for a while this morning. High pressure then gains ground tonight through early Tuesday, keeping us dry, but still cool as that low pressure area will remain to the south and we keep a generally northeasterly air flow, though lighter as the tighter gradient is displaced to the south. The western portion of the elongated low will consolidate into a renewed storm system that will make a bit of a run back to the north, definitely enough to increase the wind and cloud cover again heading through later Tuesday and Wednesday, and probably enough to clip at least Cape Cod with some additional rainfall. Finally, all of it should be out of here Tuesday as the upper pattern shifts to kick the low pressure area out to sea and allow high pressure to build in.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a few intervals of sun possible at times as well. Very light rain possible Cape Cod / Islands mainly during the morning. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 30 MPH near the coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain Cape Cod / South Coast. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with possible rain South Coast favoring Cape Cod. Partial sun elsewhere. Highs 57-64. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH and gusty, probably somewhat stronger Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Some late-week changes with a strong cold front approaching October 7, still mild but with a gusty breeze, maybe a passing shower by evening. Breezy and cool but dry weather over the October 8-9 weekend. A reinforcing cold front may bring a shot of even cooler air for October 10 before a milder rebound to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Only expecting one brief shower threat from a cold front mid period, preceded by fair and milder weather and followed by a cool shot.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-2-2022