COMMENTARY

On this final day of 2022, I’d first like to thank everyone for participating in my blog during the year. Hoping for more fun discussion in 2023. This blog was created for weather forecasts and discussion – and that’s what we do here. Simple, yes? Yup, other things come up too at times, but mainly weather as it goes – well, since this is a weather blog. However, since 2020, there has been a covid section, first published daily, and then recently moved to once per week. I am going to publish one more covid post on Sunday January 1, and it will be the final one. However, I am going to leave the ability to comment open for 80 days, so the place will still be there to chat about the pandemic until March 21. Starting January 5, you will be able to navigate there by going to the “Archives” section of the menu, clicking on January, and scrolling to what will be the first post of the month/year. I have a few more exciting things planned for WHW in 2023, so look for news about that in the future. 🙂 To all, a safe, happy and healthy new year is my wish! Peace & cheers! And now, onto the weather…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

After a very mild day yesterday, we’re going to see a repeat on the final day of 2022 – maybe a touch cooler than yesterday though due to thicker cloud cover and a little more southerly air flow off cooler ocean water, especially along the South Coast and nearby areas. With an increase in low level moisture, we’ll see a few rain showers around the region during the day. Unfortunately, it looks like an area of light rain will move into and through the region during the evening hours, putting a bit of a damper on travel to and from destinations as well as events like Boston’s First Night. At least the mild air will make the light rain more tolerable. We’ve had it far worse. The system responsible for the wet weather will be in a hurry to move through and we’ll have some lingering dampness and cloud cover Sunday morning just behind it, before drier air returns and we clear out. While the first day of 2023 will be quite mild as well, I’m not looking for outrageous warmth or any records to be set, and somewhat cooler air will be flowing in as we get to Sunday night and Monday – still a mild day but down a few from Sunday. It will also be a dry day with high pressure moving in. The next round of unsettled weather arrives Tuesday as a warm front approaches there region, bringing the clouds back, and eventually some rain. The low parenting this warm front will be tracking to our northwest, and its cold front will then come across the region later Wednesday with additional rain showers, but between the fronts, in the warm sector, we may challenge some record highs on Wednesday..

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): A cloudy start with areas of fog and a chance of rain, especially eastern areas, then breaking clouds / increasing sunshine. Highs 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late day. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 43-50 early, then rising slightly. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of rain showers, especially late day. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)

Cooler to colder weather settles in during this period but only bringing temperatures back to near to above normal. We’ll have to watch for 1 or 2 waves of low pressure that can bring rain/mix/snow to the region, especially in the January 6-8 window.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)

The outlook is not high confidence, but the overall pattern should still be dominated by a Pacific jet stream and a lack of really cold weather. However, temperatures will be marginal enough that any precipitation type can occur with unsettled weather, and I am currently eyeing the window of January 12-14 for a potential threat.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

As we approach the end of 2022, we will experience a spell of mild weather thanks to a combination of a Pacific jet stream having flushed most of the cold air out of the US and high pressure to our south giving us a warming southwesterly air flow in contrast to the anomalous arctic delivery from southwest wind just about 1 week prior. We see fair weather today, but as we count down the final hours of 2022 and get ready to welcome 2023, we’ll have to deal with a low pressure and frontal system from the west bringing us some wet weather for New Year’s Eve and into part of New Year’s Day. This won’t be a heavy rain producer, but enough to put a damper in some of the outdoor celebrations and travel to and from New Years events. At least we won’t have to deal with any ice as our temperatures will be running quite above normal – maybe even challenging a few record high minimums for the first day of the year. The current record high mins for 1-1 are 48 at Boston, 45 at Hartford, 43 at Worcester, and 42 at Providence, all set in 1965. Drier air will return during the midday and afternoon hours of Sunday behind the departing system, and a shot of slightly cooler air, but still milder than normal, will be inbound for that night as well as Monday, with dry weather. Clouds return Tuesday as a warm front approaches ahead of low pressure heading for the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 57-64 elsewhere.. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially near the South Coast. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy with rain tapering off in the morning. Areas of fog until midday. Breaking clouds giving way to sun afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts by late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day and nighttime rain expected. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)

Warm sector weather as low pressure passes to the north of our area January 4 with very mild temperatures and a chance of rain showers. Cooling trend thereafter but only back toward normal as high pressure builds in eastern Canada and toward the Great Lakes while another high holds off the East Coast but gives ground with time. In between that, for our region, there can be additional unsettled weather with rain then some risk of mix/snow before a series of disturbances depart the region late period. There will be a lot of fine-tuning to do as we get closer to this unsettled stretch.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)

Pattern should support closer to normal temperatures heading toward mid January with fair weather to start then a return to unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

The predominant pattern is now driven by a strong Pacific jet stream coming into and across the US and high pressure off the US East Coast. This will continue as we count down the final days of 2022 and begin 2023. Fair and mild weather is the story for today and Friday, and then we go unsettled just in time to ring in the new year, with the potential for some rainfall to dampen travel and outdoor activities for New Year’s Eve, and a pretty wet start at least for New Year’s Day. Still working on the timing of this and will detail it a little more precisely over the next couple updates… After that system passes, fair weather returns to round out the 5-day period.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers possible during the evening. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts by late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)

During this period we will sit near a boundary between mild air to the south and east and cooler to colder air to our north and northwest, leaving us vulnerable to a couple unsettled weather systems. It’s too early to really try timing the unsettled weather precisely, as well as predicting the precipitation type, but odds favor rain for anything earlier in the period and the frozen potential is a little higher later in the period as I believe the trend will be colder.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)

A similar pattern to what’s expected in the 6-10 day period continues to keep us in the zone for a couple of precipitation events with variable temperatures, averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Today is transition day as high pressure slips off the East Coast and a clipper system travels to our north. We’ll see lots of clouds and slightly milder air. Thursday and Friday will be fair and mild late December days with high pressure firmly established off the US East Coast. As we approach the time to flip the calendar, it will turn unsettled over the weekend that takes place. Clouds will dominate Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. There is some question as to how much rain will make it into the region that day. I will include the chance of passing rain showers for now, holding off much of the rainfall until later at night, possibly before midnight, and into a portion of the first day of 2023 before low pressure pulls a frontal boundary to our east and drier air arrives. Some fine-tuning will be needed for the weekend (New Year’s Eve / New Year’s Day) forecast.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers possible during the evening. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts by late in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)

During the first several days of the new year we will sit near a boundary between mild air to the south and east and cooler to colder air to our north and northwest, leaving us vulnerable to a couple unsettled weather systems. It’s too early to really try timing the unsettled weather precisely, but eyeing January 4 and 6 as higher potentials.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)

A similar pattern to what’s expected in the 6-10 day period continues to keep us in the zone for a couple of precipitation events with variable temperatures, averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)

The final 5 days of 2022 are covered in this first section of the blog and we’ll have a fairly quiet pattern during this stretch of time. The main feature will be a gradual warming trend as high pressure becomes established off the East Coast. Several other things will be going on – none of them major. First, clouds start today as a disturbance move through the region, but its departure will allow for sun to follow the clouds. A clipper low will track north of our region early to midday Wednesday with more cloudiness, but will keep an area of snow and snow showers to our north (delivering some accumulation to the mountains). Fair weather is expected otherwise through Friday and into Saturday, but clouds will advance into the region on Saturday ahead of a frontal boundary. I cannot rule out some rain shower activity in the region before Saturday is over, but at the moment I expect this to hold off for most areas until at least sometime after dark. They may be a factor for those out and about to celebrate the coming of the new year. Will fine-tune as we get closer.

TODAY: A cloudy start, then slow clearing. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds return overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)

Low pressure moving through the region is expected to provide a wet and mild start to 2023, followed by fair and slightly cooler weather, then another disturbance with mild and rain showery weather around January 4, exiting quickly thereafter in a progressive pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)

Watching the January 6-8 window for potential unsettled weather which can be in any form from rain to ice to snow as we’ll be near the border of mild air along the East Coast and colder air from Canada. Drier, seasonably chilly weather follows.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)

A fairly quiet final stretch of 2022 this week, starting cold, ending mild as high pressure shifts to a position off the East Coast over the coming days. Only a weak disturbance passing by tonight may bring with it a few light snow showers to portions of the region.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. A possible snow flurry favoring southern NH and northern MA. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds then sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

A mild end to 2022 with high pressure offshore and a trough approaching from the west, which may bring some wet weather before the final minutes of the year are counted down. Most likely unsettled days of early 2023 are January 1 and 4 based on current projected timing of disturbances in a generally west to east flow. Coolest weather January 2-3, but no severe cold.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

One or two relatively minor systems with precipitation threats during this period with a generally west to east flow. Variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

Here ’tis.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)

Merry Christmas! We will have a quiet but cold holiday overall. A snow band that has dropped several inches of snow over Martha’s Vineyard and up to a few inches along parts of the South Coast will fade away during the day. Otherwise, high pressure will bring fair, cold weather today into the early portion of the week with a moderation in temperature following that.

TODAY (CHRISTMAS): Snow showers with additional light accumulation Islands to South Coast, diminishing by midday, otherwise partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Fair and mild weather is expected with high pressure off the Atlantic Coast for the final couple days of 2022. Unsettled weather, likely rain or rain showers, with low pressure and a frontal system moving through the region to greet 2023, followed by dry and somewhat cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)

One or two relatively minor systems with precipitation threats during this period with a generally west to east flow. Variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Christmas Weekend will be a cold one, and mainly dry, behind the big storm. Today will be the windier of the the two days, and some ocean-effect snow is expected along the South Coast, especially Cape Cod and the Islands. Otherwise, generally dry weather is expected with only the remote chance of a few snow flurries making their way into the region via the Great Lakes. Cold weather eases up slightly but generally continues into early next week. Watching for a disturbance with a snow shower threat about Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Snow accumulation of up to 3 inches islands, especially Martha’s Vineyard, and up to 1 inch South Coast especially Cape Cod. Highs 20-27. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill around 10.

TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers, but additional scattered snow showers in the South Coast region. Lows 12-19. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

SUNDAY (CHRISTMAS): Mostly sunny. Slight chance of an isolated light snow shower. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Temperature moderation heading through the last few days of 2022 with fair weather as high pressure moves off the coast, after which we get into some unsettled weather – likely rain, as a frontal system and low pressure area move through the region, to start the new year.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)

A bit of an up and down temperature pattern during this period with a battle between the Southeast ridge and high pressure in eastern Canada seems to be shaping up. Typical La Nina pattern. Too soon to time any disturbances / unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

The long-advertised storm is in progress, and behaving as expected with no surprises thrown at us. Expect some coastal flooding and additional wind damage with potential power outages especially in RI and eastern MA to the NH Seacoast region where wind gusts are strongest through mid morning, with coastal flooding issues through the late morning high tide cycle. The lull is on the way and then we get one or two more rounds of rain squalls in the area this afternoon as the cold front extending from rapidly deepening low pressure in the Great Lakes passes by. As the low lifts into eastern Canada through tonight, an arctic boundary will pass by and may produce some snow showers and even a brief snow squall in some areas. While we miss a widespread flash freeze due to the wind’s ability to dry many surfaces before temperatures fall rapidly below freezing, we still will have icy patches and also some scattered coatings of snow which can also briefly slick up some surfaces. But the ongoing wind and much drier air should sublimate much of the ice into morning – but use caution regardless. Wind chill becomes the deal for Saturday, and while most of the region is dry with just a slight chance of a passing snow flurry, the South Coast will see some ocean-effect snow which likely delivers a small accumulation. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day continue to be generally dry and quite cold, though the wind will start to settle down moving through Christmas Day and any lingering ocean effect snow showers will push away from the South Coast, leaving only the slightest chance of a snow flurry from Great Lakes snow shower remnants. High pressure brings dry and chilly weather Monday, and a weak disturbance may produce a few snow showers Tuesday as it moves through from west to east.

TODAY: Overcast morning with rain and embedded heavier rain showers with a slight chance of thunder, diminishing from southwest to northeast. Mostly cloudy midday and early afternoon with isolated showers and even a break of sun possible. Then heavier clouds and 1 or 2 rounds of moderate to heavy rain showers moving through from southwest to northeast through mid afternoon, again a slight chance of thunder. Clouds may break for a glimpse of sun, especially near and west of I-95, prior to sunset. Snow showers are possible central MA, southwestern NH, and eastern CT late day. Highs 53-60 this morning, falling to the 40s this afternoon. Wind SE 15-35 MPH, gusts 40+ MPH inland, 50+ MPH coastal areas, diminishing for a while, then shifting to SW at similar speeds but a shorter period of strong gusts through mid afternoon.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with snow showers possible – minor accumulation may occur. Rapid icing over of any wet surfaces. Partly cloudy overnight with additional snow showers developing South Coast. Lows 12-19. Wind SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Snow accumulation of up to 2 inches island and up to 1 inch South Coast. Highs 20-27. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill around 10.

SATURDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers, but additional scattered snow showers in the South Coast region. Lows 12-19. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

SUNDAY (CHRISTMAS): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Quiet and cold middle of next week followed by moderation in temperature as we approach the change of year. May see wet weather to greet 2023, based on current timing and a more progressive Pacific-driven pattern evolving.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

May start with a bit of wet weather then drier and a cool down followed by moderation again and potential unsettled weather by the end of the period. Far too soon for any detail, but the overall pattern looks somewhat benign for early January.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 22-26)

On this first full day of winter, we look at the details of an upcoming storm. First we see clouds advance and thicken up today ahead of the system. Low pressure tracks into and through the Great Lakes while rapidly deepening through Friday. Between that and a strengthening high off to our northeast and east we will see a very strong pressure gradient. This is going to allow the wind to become strong in our region with the passage of this system. Two main bouts of precipitation will occur. The first one will take place with the system’s warm front, rain for most of the region from this evening to about mid morning Friday, when most of the expected 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall. A few areas may see amounts greater than 2 inches, while under 1 may occur on parts of Cape Cod. The strongest wind gusts are looking like they will take place from about 4 a.m. to about 10 a.m., when gusts of 45 to 65 MPH are possible, strongest being in eastern MA and RI coastal areas and higher elevations. This timing does reduce the chance of wind-driven coastal flooding as the high tide time is later in the day Friday, when we’ll be experiencing a lull in the strongest wind, and then a burst of wind from the southwest as the cold front moves through with a band of rain squalls. Once that goes by, we experience a rapid temperature drop from west to east. Thankfully, the continued wind and rapid drying of the air should help many surfaces dry off before they would have frozen up. But any puddles or areas that manage to remain wet will become icy rather rapidly during Friday evening. In addition, snow showers in the area behind the cold front may cause a small accumulation in some areas, which can add to the slippery conditions. One of our more dramatic temperature drops we’ve had in a while will take place – a matter of up to 40 degrees or so in just a couple hour’s time. This sets us up for a blustery and cold Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with a strong westerly air flow behind the departing storm which will be moving through eastern Canada. Saturday’s wind will be strongest, and Sunday’s will diminish slightly. Both days may see a few isolated snow showers surviving a trip from the Great Lakes, and on Saturday, the South Coast may pick up a bit of accumulating ocean-effect snow with a southwesterly wind – not too often a direction associated with ocean-effect snow in this area. By Monday, high pressure will bring cold but more tranquil weather to the region.

TODAY: Early limited sun, then cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arrives southwest to northeast, heavy at times overnight. Slight chance of thunderstorms after 3 a.m. Temperatures rising to 45-52. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH evening, SE 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH overnight, strongest coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain with embedded heavier rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms through mid morning, a lull, then a rain squall likely from southwest to northeast during the first half of the afternoon. Minor coastal flooding possible. Highs 53-60 occurring morning-midday, with a rapid drop beginning mid afternoon from southwest to northeast. Wind SE 20-35 MPH with gusts 45-65 MPH, strongest in higher elevations and coastal areas of eastern MA and RI, through mid morning, then diminishing slightly, then shifting to SW 15-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with snow showers possible – minor accumulation may occur. Rapid icing over of any wet surfaces. Partly cloudy to clear overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 12-19. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY (CHRISTMAS): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Current indications are for a quiet home stretch of 2022 with high pressure in control, starting with chilly weather followed by a moderating trend as high pressure shifts more to the south and east of New England with time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 1-5)

As 2023 arrives, watching the first couple days for a possible storm system bringing a rain threat with mild weather, then a return to dry weather and a more seasonable chill thereafter.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 21-25)

The winter solstice occurs at 4:48 p.m. today. High pressure area then moves over our area for a cold, bright and tranquil day. You will notice some high cloudiness at times today well in advance of our next storm system. These clouds thicken up tonight into Thursday. Developing and rapidly deepening the low pressure will move through the Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday bringing us a windy rain event which may start with some snowflakes in the higher elevations well to the Northwest of Boston and end as a mix or snow as a strong cold front sweeps through on Friday evening. Strong to damaging winds accompany this event. We will see some minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide due to astronomically high tides combined with strong wind. Areas that do not dry off with wind Friday night can experience a flash freeze with a rapidly dropping temperature. Cold and mainly dry weather with blustery conditions can be expected for the weekend – Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. We’ll have to watch for some snow showers that may survive their trip from the Great Lakes, and also a period of somewhat rare ocean-effect snow bands from southwest winds may occur along and near the South Coast Saturday. Dry weather and less wind is expected Monday with high pressure in control.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, may begin as snow/mix some inland locations. Lows 32-39 evening, likely warming overnight. Wind up to 10 MPH early, shifting to SE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, some possibly heavy. Highs 55-62. Wind SE to S 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH, possibly even higher in some coastal areas and higher elevations.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early evening with rain showers ending, possibly as snow showers with a brief coating of snow possible. Watch for rapid ice-over of wet surfaces by late evening / overnight. Partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 12-19. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY (CHRISTMAS): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 26-30)

Generally dry and cold weather is expected much of the period. Watching for one wave of low pressure that may bring some snow or mix around December 27.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Low confidence forecast. Indications of moderating temperatures early to mid period, a precipitation threat around the New Year, then a dry/colder finish.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 20-24)

A brisk northwesterly air flow continues today between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure approaching via the Great Lakes with a bright but chilly and breezy day for us. The high pressure area then moves over our area for a cold, bright and tranquil Wednesday for Winter Solstice (which occurs at 4:48 p.m.). But things change in a big way heading through Thursday and Friday as a rapidly deepening low pressure area moves through the Great Lakes, and its contrast with high pressure moving east of our region will create strong to powerful southeasterly to southerly winds here and a couple periods of rain, including some potential heavy rainfall. Thursday night to Friday evening. It will not likely rain the entire time though as there may very well be a couple dry periods in between bands. The final band will be on a strong cold front and may arrive quickly enough so that the rainfall ends as mixed precipitation or even snow, enough for a brief coating on some surfaces. More threatening is that areas that do not dry out from the wind can freeze over quickly later Friday night as the temperature drops rapidly, so keep that in mind if traveling later at night and early Saturday. Cold and mainly dry weather with blustery conditions can be expected for the weekend – Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. We’ll have to watch for some snow showers that may survive their trip from the Great Lakes, and also a period of somewhat rare ocean-effect snow bands from southwest winds may occur along and near the South Coast Saturday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, may begin as snow/mix some inland locations. Lows 32-39 evening, likely warming overnight. Wind up to 10 MPH early, shifting to SE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, some possibly heavy. Highs 55-62. Wind SE to S 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH, possibly even higher in some coastal areas and higher elevations.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early evening with rain showers ending, possibly as snow showers with a brief coating of snow possible. Watch for rapid ice-over of wet surfaces by late evening / overnight. Partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 25-29)

Breezy and cold Christmas Day with isolated snow showers possible otherwise dry weather. Generally dry and cold weather is expected through the middle portion of next week though keep an eye out for one possible disturbance with some snow showers.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Low confidence forecast. Indications of moderating temperatures early to mid period, a precipitation threat around the New Year, then a dry/colder finish.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 19-23)

A northwesterly air flow dominates our weather today and Tuesday between eastern Canadian low pressure and central Canadian high pressure, bringing dry, breezy, and chilly weather. That high will sink southeastward and move across the region Wednesday, also a dry and chilly but more tranquil day as we lose the gusty breeze. Things change as we head later into the week. A complex low pressure system will be set to impact our region. First some lead energy develops an initial rain area along the Mid Atlantic Coast which then heads northward, reaching our region in the evening, but may start as snow/mix with some chilly air trapped in the area. While this is going on another low will take shape and rapidly deepen in the Midwest while heading for the Great Lakes. There are still some details about this system that remain unknown, such as how far west it tracks, which holds a key to how quickly the lingering cool air can be pushed out of our region, as it sometimes happens above us but not at the surface nearly as quickly, if at all, in this set-up. For now, I lean toward a warm front making it through, and Friday being a breezy and very mild day with rain showers, culminating in a rain squall line as a cold front sweeps across the region ahead of the rapidly deepening storm in the Great Lakes Friday evening. As for more precise timing, we’ll have to nail that down later in the week. The system will likely produce some significant and possibly damaging wind gusts.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, may begin as snow/mix some inland locations. Lows 32-39 evening, likely warming overnight. Wind up to 10 MPH early, shifting to SE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 55-62. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 24-28)

A blustery, cold Christmas Eve & Christmas Day can be expected in the wake of powerful low pressure moving through eastern Canada. A few snow showers may survive a trip from the Great Lakes into our region. Generally dry and cold weather is expected early to middle portion of next week but watching around December 27 for a potential snow/mix/rain threat.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Not a high confidence forecast, but after a chilly start it may moderate with a rain or snow threat sometime around the beginning of 2023.

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