Updated C-19 chat post for this week…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)

High pressure brings fair weather today but there will be a gusty breeze as the high center is off to the south a little and low pressure sits over eastern Canada. The high moves off to the east Monday, another fair weather day with a bit milder air. The next low pressure area, tracking north of our region toward midweek, drags a frontal boundary toward us later Tuesday and Wednesday, but it takes its time, and we get a mild southerly air flow along with unsettled weather as a result. Right now, cautious optimism leads to a forecast of drier and slightly cooler weather on Thursday as the front pushes through and Canadian high pressure noses into the region.

TODAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain developing in the afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Blocking pattern is expected, driven by high pressure in the Greenland area. At the same time there will be some persistence of a ridge in the southeastern US. This pattern likely means a stretch of unsettled weather as we’re caught between as disturbances try to pass through the weakness between highs. For this period, it looks like any precipitation will more likely be in the form of liquid than frozen as it may be hard to establish cold in the region, but this is not a certainty as this point.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)

Greenland block drives the pattern. A lot of uncertainty here with indications, based on the position of the block, that we can see storms pushed to our south ranging all the way to ones that try cutting through the Great Lakes. I think the take-away for the moment is unsettled but not overly so, and variable temperatures, with a lot to work out in the days ahead.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Low pressure moving east northeastward across southeastern Canada will drag a frontal boundary through our region by this evening, with a round of rain showers ahead of it and another along it – so an unsettled Saturday. Fair weather returns with high pressure building in for Sunday and Monday before the next system from the west brings more unsettled weather in the form of rainfall as mild air dominates Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with an area of rain crossing the region from west to east, then variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds and one more passing rain shower early evening, then clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 36-43. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)

The pattern will transition into a blocking set-up, driven by high pressure in the Greenland region. We will be near additional unsettled weather systems as this transition takes place but it’s hard to tell which days will feature more clouds and unsettled weather at this point. Fine-tuning to come. Temperatures trend colder.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)

Greenland block drives the pattern. We will have to watch for any retrogression of the pattern too as time goes along. Initially we are cold and mostly dry but may have a close call from a system passing to the south early in the period and a better chance of some type of precipitation event later in the period. There are also trends on some recent guidance that the magnitude of the cold may not be quite that grand – more of a near to below normal style chill. Monitoring in progress – clarification to come ahead.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)

High pressure provides nice weather today. Low pressure cuts through the Great Lakes and sends a frontal boundary our way with a couple rounds of rain showers, gusty wind, and mild air for Saturday, followed by a shot of cooler air and a return to dry weather with a gusty breeze for Sunday. And the cycle continues as we have fair weather Monday and another frontal system approaching from the west Tuesday, though this one may be a little slower in arriving as we will start to see things slowing down in the atmosphere – the first signal of a pattern change that is coming up…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with an area of rain crossing the region from west to east, then variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and one more passing rain shower early evening, then clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)

The pattern will transition into a blocking set-up, driven by high pressure in the Greenland region. This will first slow the system coming through early in the period down enough so that unsettled weather with some rain shower activity will be around to start this period, and then a minor system with snow showers around mid period is possible as we trend colder.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Greenland block drives the pattern. We will have to watch for any retrogression of the pattern too as time goes along. Initially we are cold and mostly dry but may have a close call from a system passing to the south early in the period and a better chance of some type of precipitation event later in the period. Can bring these things into better focus over time. In the mean time you can look at run-to-run models for entertainment. 😉

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Hello December! The first month of Meteorological Winter and the final month of 2022. This is where we complete our transition from late autumn to early winter, and of course move through the heart of the holiday season. If it hasn’t snowed yet, people look forward to the first one with a variety of emotions ranging from dread to child-like anticipation. Whatever your persuasion, what I can tell you is that you’re not seeing it in the next 5 days. There will be changes in the weather during this period, but the pattern is not the “snowy” type, with a storm track that’s through the Great Lakes. Typical La Nina / Southeast Ridge pattern as a basis, but its days are numbered. We’ll get to that. In the mean time, it’s more of the same. Today, behind yesterday’s gusty and mild rain event, we get a shot of appropriately seasonably chilly weather to open the month, along with lots of wind, but it will be dry, save for the remote chance of a snow flurry reaching our northwesterly hilly terrain if surviving the trip all the way from the Great Lakes. The wind will settle down tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes, and high pressure building closer to the region Friday will give us a nice early December day. The next low pressure area will be wasting no time on its trek here, and again with its low tracking well to our northwest, we’ll be on its warmer side for Saturday. This system, while potent in its own right, is not going to be as strong as its predecessor, and while Saturday will be “unsettled” with a couple rounds of rain showers, it may not be that bad a day either, as we may end up seeing more of a sun/cloud interval set-up rather than a solid overcast. Behind that system, Sunday will be a dry, breezy, chilly day, similar to today but probably with not as much wind, and like Friday, Monday will see fair and more tranquil weather with high pressure moving into the region.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief snow flurry may reach the Monadnocks of southwestern NH or the Worcester Hills of MA. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple rounds of rain showers are probable. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Next unsettled weather threat is around December 6-7 based on current expected timing. Odds highly favor a low track to our northwest and precipitation in the form of rain showers. This will come at the beginning of a pattern transition toward blocking, driven by high pressure over Greenland. The trend is for mostly dry but somewhat colder weather for the middle and end of this period with maybe a snow shower event somewhere during the transition.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Fairly confident of the pattern shift now to a Greenland high pressure block, strong enough to suppress a lot of moisture to our south and put us in a pattern of below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation with just a few snow showers from time to time with upper disturbances. Obviously no ability for day-to-day details at this point.