DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 16-20)

As we head through the final few days of winter toward the vernal equinox and the start of spring, we’ll have a little typical changeable March weather, but no major storminess to deal with during the next 5 days. High pressure to our southwest noses into this area for fair weather today, but there still exists enough pressure gradient between it and the offshore storm to make for a breezy day. A warm front brings cloudiness to the region as it passes through on Friday, but the chance of any rainfall is brief and minimal, favoring northwestern areas later in the day. Milder air arrives and will last into Saturday as a cold front pushes through the region early, with the greatest precipitation threat from that later Friday night and first thing Saturday in the form of rain showers, leaving the balance of Saturday dry, breezy, and cool. The coldest air behind that front waits until a secondary trough goes by early Sunday, and that day will be blustery and chilly with a sun/cloud mix (snow flurries stay in the mountains). High pressure builds in for a tranquil arrival of spring Monday – a cold start but a milder afternoon.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 28-35. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Considerable cloudiness. Mid to late afternoon showers possible, mainly well west and north of Boston. Highs 46-53, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy first thing with a passing rain shower possible, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)

Quiet weather the first part of the period, then we become vulnerable to unsettled weather thereafter with a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)

Active pattern with additional unsettled weather threats and near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)

A blustery Ides of March behind our departing winter storm, which resulted in a sharp contrast in snowfall between very little to the southeast and monumental amounts to the northwest. In fact, across Middlesex County MA alone, amounts ranged from about 3 inches in the southeast corner of the county to 30 inches in Ashby, a high elevation in the northwestern corner of the county. Amazing when you think about it, but makes total sense given the synoptic set-up of this particular situation – and a great example of the variety that can take place over such a short distance. Today’s gusty wind is still as a result of the low pressure area that took a track like a toddler who can’t decide which toy to play with, culminating in a loop just off the eastern coast of New England. That system will move away today but as it does so, breaking clouds allow solar heating to mix an atmosphere that is still very cold aloft, so the gusty winds will continue today. High pressure moves in tonight to calm the winds and it provides us with a nice mid March day on Thursday. We’ll have to be aware of some stream and river flooding due to melting snow the next several days since the heavy snow (where it fell) was loaded with water and also followed heavy rainfall. Our next low pressure system to impact the region will do so late this week as it moves through the Great Lakes and drags a warm front through the region on Friday and a cold front early Saturday. Yesterday I was a little concerned about low pressure coming up that cold front to prolong rainfall and possibly end it as snowfall on Saturday, but latest indications are that the front will move along a little more swiftly, and a wet start to Saturday will then transition to dry, breezy, chilly weather, which will then last for the balance of the weekend.

TODAY: Lots of clouds. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Brief light snow/mix possible central MA and southern NH morning. Brief light rain possible anywhere midday. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely early, then a sun/cloud mix. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning, may fall slightly during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)

Spring arrives with the Vernal Equinox on March 20 with fair weather and moderating temperatures expected that day and March 21. Vulnerable to unsettled weather during the middle and latter portion of the period with a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)

One or two low pressure systems can impact the region with unsettled weather in a return to an active pattern for late month. Temperatures mostly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 14-18)

Pi Day Northeaster underway. Intensifying low pressure gets captured by its upper level partner while moving to the north, and will end up performing a cyclonic loop just off the MA East Coast later today and this evening. As of early morning, moderate to heavy rainfall is occurring in most of the WHW forecast area except it has changed to snow during the night outside of I-495 to the north of I-90 in many areas. This changeover will progress slowly southeastward at first, then pick up momentum in an irregular fashion, responsive to precipitation intensity as well as trending southeastward as we go through the day. The following is an update of the system break-down as far as it impact this area…

Precipitation: Early this morning snow southwestern NH and north central MA, rain elsewhere. The rapid deepening of the low center will initiate dynamic cooling, most rapidly where precipitation is heaviest but general northwest to southeast trend as well, perhaps without a clear-cut rain/snow line. The last places to see this changeover take place should be the South Coast and Cape Cod as well as the Islands. Unless an area is under a heavy snow band, some of the snowfall will have a difficult time accumulating, especially the closer to the coast you are, during the daylight hours. As darkness falls, accumulation becomes easier and the majority of the accumulation especially for eastern areas will take place this evening. There may be a brief flip back to rain for parts of Cape Cod and even a brief cut-off of precipitation as the low center makes its closest pass and a dry slot briefly moves over that region. Snow tapers to snow/rain showers west to east Wednesday morning before coming to an end.

Snowfall totals for the event: Slushy coating to 2 inches Cape Cod / Islands as well as the immediate South Coast westward through immediate coastal RI and CT, 2-4 inches interior southeastern CT through south central RI to just inland from the MA South Coast up through the MA South Shore, as well as the tip of Cape Ann MA, 4-8 inches northeastern CT and northern RI through the I-90 and I-95 belt including Providence to Boston’s Metro West including the city of Boston (except 2-4 inches Logan Airport) and up to the immediate NH Seacoast, 8-12 inches central MA and interior southern NH lower elevations eastward to the I-495 region north of I-90, and 12-16 inches in the higher terrain of central MA and interior southern NH. Caveats for snowfall remain the same but with a less likely dry slot into eastern areas (except Cape Cod). There is still a slight chance of higher snowfall in the 2-4 inch zone with any heavier snow banding. Basically this would just mean the 4-8 inch area would be nudged slightly to the east and southeast.

Wind: East to northeast early morning, northeast to north late morning through afternoon, north to northwest tonight into Wednesday. Peak wind time will be during the evening to early nighttime hours from the north with peak gusts expected to be 35-45 MPH inland, strongest in higher elevations, and 45-55 MPH in coastal areas with occasional gusts above 55 MPH possible. This will occur as the low center makes its closest pass to the MA eastern coast on the southbound swing of its loop. By later tonight and Wednesday, gusts will be more in the 20-30 MPH range, still strongest near the coast and over some of the higher elevations of central MA and southern NH as the air mass becomes mixed by some solar heating.

Power outage potential: With temperatures not far from freezing, and in some cases slightly above freezing where it snows, snow load can become a problem for trees and power lines, and combined with strong, gusty winds, this will likely lead to scattered power outages, especially where snow load / wind gust combo is maximized. The 2 most vulnerable areas for higher clusters of outages will be heaviest snow areas of north central MA and southern NH, as well as highest wind gust areas along the coastal plain.

Coastal flooding threat: Fortunately, this aspect of the storm will be limited due to astronomically low tides and strongest winds more from the north than directly onshore over a larger portion of the coastline. However, northeast-facing and north-facing shores most vulnerable will likely see minor to moderate flooding during high tide times Tuesday to early Wednesday.

Commute impacts: Wet roads in most major areas for this morning but watch for ponding due to heavy rainfall. Exception will be slushy and snow covered roads where it has been snowing already in southwestern NH to north central MA higher elevations. This evening’s commute will be the most impacted by snow, most extensively away from the shores with more of a tendency for slushy or just wet roads right along the coastline unless snowing heavily at any given time. Just wet roads expected for the Wednesday morning commute and no issues for the evening one.

Post storm improvement Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds in. No changes to the outlook beyond that for late week with a warm front moving through on Friday with more clouds, milder air, and maybe a touch of rain but mainly dry, then a cold front moving into the region Saturday, with mild rain chances to start, but some chance that a second wave of low pressure could meet colder air and produce some mix to snow behind that (lower confidence on that part and will monitor during the week).

TODAY: Overcast. Snow well inland and higher elevations. Rain changing to snow elsewhere. Snow will become heavy at times. Temperatures fall slightly to 30-37. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast, with gusts above 30 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow tapers off gradually but still can be heavy at times in the evening. See above discussion for total accumulation expectations. Lows 28-35. Wind N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers likely, becoming more isolated with time. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of brief light rain especially north and west of Boston. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely morning. Chance of rain/mix/snow afternoon. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)

March 19 looks dry, breezy, and chilly to end the final weekend of winter. Vernal Equinox occurs Monday March 20 and weather looks tranquil for that day and the first full day of spring March 21. Unsettled weather may arrive with rain/mix/snow potential for late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)

One or two low pressure systems can impact the region with unsettled weather with an active late March pattern. Temperatures mostly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)

Today’s a quiet but cloudy day, with our clouds a combination of broken low clouds from our adjacent ocean underneath a canopy of thickening high to middle clouds in advance of an approaching storm from the southwest. A little bit of rain may sneak into the region this afternoon in advance of the main storm system. A moderate to high impact, long-duration late winter storm is next up from later tonight to early Wednesday. This is going to come about when a low pressure area moving eastward from the Great Lakes combines with low pressure moving north northeastward from off the Mid Atlantic Coast to just south southeast of New England. During its life cycle, the resultant storm will take the form of a slightly elongated center that will eventually consolidate into a more symmetrical center, doing a fairly tight cyclonic loop as it’s captured by the upper level low pressure area associated with it. Where this all takes place and how it behaves is key to what we see across the area for rain vs. snow, and of course snowfall amounts. A system like this comes with a fairly high potential for the forecast for some areas to not work out well, and this can include both under-performing and over-performing snowfall production. Keep this in mind when you see my snowfall expectations posted below. However, snowfall is not the only aspect of this upcoming storm. Wind will be a factor too, as well as coastal flooding to some degree, though limited. Let’s break down each aspect of the storm…

Precipitation: Starts as mix/snow across southwestern NH and the higher terrain of Worcester County in MA, and starts as rain in all other locations, moving in from southwest to northeast during the late night Monday to early morning Tuesday. The rapid deepening of the low center will initiate dynamic cooling, bringing cold air down from above, most rapidly where precipitation is heaviest but also a tendency to happen from northwest to southeast. This combination can sometimes prevent a clear-cut rain/snow line, with the changeover happening in a more irregular fashion. The last places to see this changeover take place should be the South Coast and Cape Cod as well as the Islands. Unless an area is under a heavy snow band, some of the snowfall will have a difficult time accumulating, especially the closer to the coast you are, during the daylight hours of Tuesday, but as darkness falls, the accumulation ability will improve quickly and that is when I am expecting most it to take place. The snow should then taper off from west to east in the pre-dawn to mid morning hours of Wednesday, and as the precipitation becomes light and more spotty, the dynamic cooling process will stop, and some of the showers will be falling as rain or a rain/snow mix, though this will be insignificant precipitation anyway by that point.

Snowfall totals for the event: Slushy coating to 2 inches Cape Cod / Islands as well as the immediate South Coast westward through RI and CT, 2-4 inches interior southeastern CT through south central RI to just inland from the MA South Coast up through the MA South Shore, as well as the tip of Cape Ann MA, 4-8 inches northeastern CT and northern RI through the I-90 and I-95 belt including Providence to Boston’s Metro West including the city of Boston (except 2-4 inches Logan Airport) and up to the immediate NH Seacoast, 8-12 inches central MA and interior southern NH lower elevations eastward to the I-495 region north of I-90, and 12-16 inches in the higher terrain of central MA and interior southern NH. Caveats for snowfall include the potential for lower amounts with a closer low center loop and a dry slot working into some southeastern areas, but a low probability of this occurring, or a potentially higher swath of snowfall (greater than 4 inches in my 2-4 inch area) in southeastern MA with a low center loop slightly further east and stronger snowfall banding resulting in this region. Adjustments will be made in the comments section (and next blog post) if necessary.

Wind: No issue Monday evening with just light to moderate east to northeast wind. Increases steadily and quickly Tuesday, peaking during the afternoon and evening while backing from northeast to north. Peak wind gusts are expected to be 35-45 MPH inland, strongest in higher elevations, and 45-55 MPH in coastal areas with occasional gusts above 55 MPH possible. These winds will gradually diminish while blowing from the north and northwest during Wednesday as the low center pulls away from the area.

Power outage potential: With temperatures not far from freezing, and in some cases slightly above freezing where it snows, snow load can become a problem for trees and power lines, and combined with strong, gusty winds, this will likely lead to scattered power outages, especially where snow load / wind gust combo is maximized.

Coastal flooding threat: Fortunately, this aspect of the storm will be limited due to astronomically low tides and strongest winds more from the north than directly onshore over a larger portion of the coastline. However, northeast-facing and north-facing shores most vulnerable will likely see minor to moderate flooding during high tide times Tuesday to early Wednesday.

Commute impacts: No issues Monday evening. Wet roads all coastal areas and metro Boston for Tuesday morning commute. Slushy roads at least partially snowcovered unless plowed in higher elevations of the interior. Tuesday evening commute most likely to see snow on road issues, most extensively away from the shores with more of a tendency for slushy or just wet roads right along the coastline unless snowing heavily at any given time. Just wet roads expected for the Wednesday morning commute and no issues for the evening one.

After the storm leaves us, improvement is expected for later Wednesday, and especially Thursday as high pressure builds in for a nice mid March Day, favorable for cleanup and recovery efforts in hardest-hit locations. Friday, a trough will approach from the west, and while surface high pressure tries to hang on, a warm front will head up from the southwest and across the region with some cloudiness, though precipitation chances seem to be rather low with this boundary based on current medium range guidance. Will reassess this potential during the week. One thing looks pretty certain, and that is a push of milder air arriving to end the week. By that time, the vast majority of the snow that will have fallen from our upcoming storm will be gone.

TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 39-46. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arrives except starting as mix/snow interior highest elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Lows 33-40. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow well inland and higher elevations. Rain changing to snow elsewhere. Snow will become heavy at times. Temperatures fall slightly to 30-37. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast, with gusts above 30 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow tapers off gradually but still can be heavy at times in the evening. See above discussion for total accumulation expectations. Lows 28-35. Wind N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers likely, becoming more isolated with time. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)

Watch for a frontal boundary to pass through with a possible wave of low pressure on it bringing the good chance of precipitation – likely rain as it will be on the mild side for Saturday March 18. Breezy, dry, colder weather arrives for Sunday March 19. The early to middle part of next week looks mostly dry to start but there may be a storm threat before the end of the period with the potential for some precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)

One or two low pressure systems can impact the region with unsettled weather. Temperatures mostly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)

First, this reminder: If you have manual clocks and didn’t change them yet, move them forward 1 hour! Daylight Saving Time began at 2:00 a.m. today! Now, onto the weather, and today will be a very nice late winter Sunday under the influence of a small high pressure area. There will be an exception though, and that is Cape Cod and portions of the South Shore to South Coast just to the west of there, under a canopy of ocean-born clouds with a north northeast wind and low level moisture in the atmosphere. Gradually, today’s wind will be turning a little more northeast to east, and eventually, this cloud area will start to expand westward, so more coastal areas may lose the sunshine as we go through the day. However, it will at least be dry in the areas that see the cloudiness for any outdoor plans… Now, to the storm threat. A significant late-winter storm is on its way, impacting our region starting Monday and lasting into a good part of Wednesday. This doesn’t mean 3 days of full-on stormy weather. That peaks during Tuesday, but the lead-in Monday comes as clouds thicken up (although this may be taking place above a blanket of lower clouds already in place anyway). Low pressure is going to be passing just to our south and in an elongated form with a bit of a dumb-bell spin upcoming as the low becomes captured by its upper level partner and ends up doing a cyclonic loop probably just off to the southeast and east of New England Tuesday through early Wednesday. It will also be intensifying during this time a lot closer to us than many of its predecessors have done, and some of those were actually weakening as they came through, not intensifying. So this particular storm is a different animal compared to many we’ve seen this season. The main precipitation arrives late Monday night and lasts until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. I think a snow or mixed rain/snow start is likely inland and a start as rain in the coastal plain for sure. It likely rains for a number of hours at the start of the storm in places like Providence and Boston and all those coastal communities, but as the storm intensifies offshore, the process of dynamic cooling will drag down cold air from above and change that rain to snow for most of, and eventually all of the region. This will take place last over Cape Cod, which will end up with the least amount of snow from the storm, with amounts building up as you head west and north. My outline of p-type and snow amounts for this system goes like this. Starts a couple hours either side of midnight Monday night / Tuesday morning as mix/snow for southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain south central MA, and rain eastern CT through RI and all of eastern MA. Flip to snow takes place in a general west to east motion over the inland areas (west and northwest of the coastal plain) by around dawn or shortly after, and into the coastal communities including the cities of Providence and Boston by around mid morning Tuesday, and lastly to Cape Cod by around noon Tuesday. One caveat about that: A potential dry slot can get into the South Coast region during Tuesday morning-midday which means that little or nothing may fall for an hour or two or three, which would make the change-over timing temporarily a moot point. Once precipitation resumed, however, it would be snow, or quick rain to snow, and I suspect most of what falls on Cape Cod will be snow for the balance of Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. It will be Tuesday afternoon and evening that most of the snow accumulation is seen, and my first call on that is a slushy coating to 2 inches immediate South Coast including Cape Cod, 2-4 inches just inland from South Coast through the South Shore, 4-8 inches Providence up I-95 belt including Boston and the MA North Shore to the NH Seacoast and as far west as south central MA and northeastern CT with the potential for over 8 in the higher elevations of the 4-8 area, 8-12 inches from about I-495 from I-90 northward to include Worcester northward to southwestern and interior southern NH, with 12+ potential in the highest elevations of the 8-12 area. There may actually be a third low center (tertiary low) that rotates all the way around and brings one final batch of heavier snowfall into eastern areas early Wednesday morning before everything winds down during the day as spotty snow and rain showers. Snow load issues bring about the threat for damage to trees and power lines, and resultant power outages. Where this combines with wind it will be even more of an issue. And the wind aspect of this storm is significant. We start out with east and northeast winds increasing as the low center starts to pass by to the south, and then as the elongated set of lows pivots, our winds will back more to the northeast and north with time during Tuesday and into Wednesday (eventually north to northwest). Strongest wind gusts will be in coastal areas, and they may exceed 50 MPH there (Cape Ann, South Shore, Cape Cod most vulnerable to this). Thankfully, our tides are on the astronomically lower side, so while there will still likely be some coastal flooding and splashover at high tide times, it should be limited somewhat. Folks in coastal communities most vulnerable to storm-driven tidal issues should still be ready for minor to moderate flooding issues. Things calm down nicely during Wednesday night as the storm finally pulls away, and high pressure builds in for a nice “recovery” day Thursday.

TODAY: Sunshine except lots of clouds Cape Cod and MA southern South Shore to eastern South Coast, eventually expanding west and north, limiting the sun in more coastal areas with time. Highs 40-47. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Highs 39-46. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain arriving (snow favoring higher elevations inland, rain favoring most areas initially). Lows 33-40. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow well inland and higher elevations. Rain changing to snow elsewhere. Snow will become heavy at times. Temperatures fall slightly to 30-37. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast, with gusts above 30 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow tapers off gradually but still can be heavy at times. See above discussion for accumulation expectations. Lows 28-35. Wind N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers likely. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)

Unsettled weather potential late March 17 into March 18 then a drier trend. Starting mild, then cooling. Vernal Equinox – March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)

Early days of spring continue to look active with the good shot at a couple low pressure systems impacting the region with rain/mix/snow potentials and temperatures back to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)

A weekend split, though the unsettled day, today, is not all that bad. Low pressure made a run at the region, getting its clouds in and areas of snow and rain, but mainly on the lighter side, with some minor accumulation of snow mainly in the higher terrain well to the west and southwest of Boston. This area of precipitation will dry up as low pressure is deflected southeastward, eventually to become a potent storm over the water south and southeast of New England. While this process takes place, an increasing onshore wind will bring some rain and snow showers in from the ocean during the day and into this evening which can result in brief minor accumulation of snow (where they occur as snow). Exit this system tonight and enter an area of high pressure for a nice Sunday, but this interlude of nice weather will be rather short-lived too. Attention is on the evolution and development / movement of a significant storm system slated to impact our region later Monday to Wednesday. I’m not going to go into significant detail on today’s blog post about this storm. I will expand upon it significantly on tomorrow’s, however. For now, I’ll summarize my thoughts on the event this way. It’s going to be the most potent storm we directly deal with that will produce significant snow for at least part of the region this winter season (yes, it’s still winter, not spring). Low track (both surface and upper level) very important as always, but extremely so in determining precipitation profile. A slight but model-wide shift southeastward has taken place with global guidance overnight and the most recent runs (before the writing of this blog) show a solid process of dynamic cooling, ending up making more of the region see snow than rain. (Again, a guidance comment, not my actual locked-in final forecast just yet.) I bring this up because this is a process I’ve already mentioned would be a part of this storm, regardless of its track. Areas that see significant snow don’t have to be sitting in a cold airmass beforehand. Storms manufacture cold and bring it down from directly overhead in the right set-up, and this will be the right set-up for that. Snow load and wind issues will exist – details TBD. Resultant power outages will be a significant threat. Coastal issues will be limited due to astronomical low tides, fortunately, but with a potent low center likely to be passing just south and east of our region, the threat of high tide splash-over and flooding will still exist. Looking at a Monday night start time for initial precipitation favoring rain east, snow west, into Tuesday when sometime during that day, depending on the low’s track, we see the cooling take place and a rain/snow line head eastward, maybe irregularly depending on the rate of cooling via precipitation intensity (example, it could start snowing in Boston before some of its nearby western suburbs). The storm center may do a cyclonic loop / stall briefly, so the impacts likely linger into a portion of Wednesday as well. More refined detail and timing on these things with tomorrow’s post…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of mainly light rain/snow favoring south central through southeastern MA, eastern CT, and RI during the morning. Scattered rain and snow showers favoring NH Seacoast and eastern MA this afternoon. Very minor and temporary snow accumulations possible in some areas. Generally steady temperatures 35-42. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain likely, rain favoring coastal areas, snow favoring inland areas. Lows 30-37. Highs 38-45 but may stay colder inland and start to fall all areas during Tuesday. Wind NE-E 15-35 MPH, higher gusts likely.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow likely, possibly heavy at times, except rain or snow South Coast and Cape Cod. Lows 28-35. Wind NE-N 15-35 MPH higher gusts likely.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers likely. Highs 35-42. Wind N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)

Quiet start and end to this period. Mid period unsettled weather potential. Temperatures variable, averaging near normal. Vernal Equinox – March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)

Early days of spring look active with the good shot at a couple low pressure systems impacting the region with rain/mix/snow potentials and temperatures back to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)

Two storms are ours to deal with during this 5-day period – the first is no big deal, the second is a bigger deal. First, high pressure provides us with a nice day today. The wind will be much lighter than the last few days as the ocean storm has moved away. Sunshine which starts out bright will become filtered by a shield of high clouds in advance of the first low we have to contend with. This storm system, while destined to become quite strong, will do so after it’s deflected southeastward, just grazing our area with some generally light precipitation. A minor accumulation of snowfall is possible mainly south and west of Boston overnight and early Saturday before the precipitation area largely dries up and a new low takes over south of New England, and heads out to sea. So that system starts our weekend a bit grey and unsettled. After the precipitation shield skirts our southern and western regions we may see a batch of rain and snow showers rotate in north of low center off the ocean, but then we recover with nicer weather late Saturday through Sunday. The next storm approaches Monday and moves in Monday night and Tuesday. This one is going to have a much higher impact on our region. What’s pretty certain is we’ll deal with some strong winds and coastal issues (though astronomical tides are not that high which is a positive aspect). What’s uncertain is the precipitation types / distribution – still to be worked out. F’or now odds favor more rain south and east (especially coastal areas) and more snow north and west (interior especially). It’s also not necessarily likely to be just one or the other for any given location, as transitions between precipitation types are also quite possible. So there will be lots of fine-tuning to come over the next few days. Bottom line: Don’t jump to any solid conclusions – just watch the updates… Reminder, EST becomes EDT at 2 a.m. Sunday when we move the clocks forward 1 hour (unless they do so automatically of course)!

TODAY: Sunshine – brightest this morning, filtered by high clouds afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives eastern CT, RI, and central to southeastern MA late evening / overnight, maybe mixed with rain coastal areas. Minor snow accumulation possible in these areas. Lows 31-38. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast. Midday and afternoon rain and snow showers are possible in eastern areas which can leave a brief snow accumulation. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain likely, rain favoring coastal areas, snow favoring inland areas. Lows 30-37. Highs 38-45 but may stay colder inland. Wind NE-E 15-35 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)

Low pressure may linger in the area with additional precipitation into March 15. Watching another potential low pressure impact around March 18-19. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)

Pattern looks active to welcome spring (Vernal Equinox March 20) with another one or two storm systems to potentially deal with. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)

One more day on the western edge of the ocean storm today with clouds and maybe a passing sprinkle or flurry, then it heads away and high pressure builds in for a more tranquil and sunnier Friday. Low pressure makes a run at our region for early in the weekend but will be deflected southeastward by what remains of the block in the atmosphere, so while its cloud canopy invades the sky Friday night and Saturday, most of its precipitation will be shunted to our south, only clipping the South Coast. An area of high pressure will make the second half of the weekend brighter. During this time another storm system will be crossing the country and ready to enter our region during Monday. This one carries more potential with it to be a stronger impact storm for our region, but since it’s going to be arriving on day 5 the forecast for it will left very generalized for now, as it won’t be until we get closer to the event that we can sort out details. So in the words of NWS Boston (from a recent discussion), it’s “probalistic” over “deterministic” at this point. And another reminder, EST becomes EDT at 2 a.m. Sunday when we move the clocks forward 1 hour (unless they do so automatically of course)!

TODAY: Cloud/sun intervals with a passing brief snow or rain shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Some light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Late-day rain/snow possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)

Potential / likely moderate to possibly major storm system impacting the region early in the period, may be slow to exit with unsettled conditions into the middle of the week before drier weather arrives. May have to watch for another system by the end of the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)

Confidence obviously lower here but will watch for yet another storm system around the time we enter the first few days of spring following the Vernal Equinox on March 20. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)

An ocean storm continues to spin to our east, blocked by Greenland high pressure, and this will go on for another 2 days. Our weather as a result will be breezy and cool with dominant clouds but very limited precipitation chances. The coldest air was with us as this set up, giving the region some light snow showers yesterday, but a bit of temperature moderation around the low’s circulation means that any shower activity will trend toward rain today and Thursday, but either way it will be insignificant. The block breaks down by Friday and the low pressure area wanders away to the east, releasing its grip on us and allowing high pressure to move in with more tranquil weather and sunshine to end the work week. As things begin to move along again in the atmosphere, low pressure will make a run at the region via the Great Lakes, but with some effects lingering from the ocean storm and what’s left of the block, this system will be shunted to the south, just grazing the South Coast early in the weekend, and leaving us with a generally dry and cool weekend otherwise. Oh, and don’t forget! This is the weekend that’s shorter than the others by 1 hour as we “spring foward” at 2 a.m. Sunday in the return to Daylight Saving Time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A passing light rain shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Some light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning light snow/mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 40-47. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)

Watching the potential for a moderate to major storm to impact the region with wind and precipitation early next week – details to be determined. Trending drier mid to late week. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)

Lower confidence in the weather pattern for this period, but 1 or 2 more storm systems may potentially impact the region as we transition from winter to spring (Equinox on March 20). Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)

A large low pressure area east and northeast of New England will give us a gusty breeze and some of its cloudiness at times during the next few days, along with a couple chances of passing light snow and rain showers, but most of the time will be dry. The low pulls away and high pressure moves in for Friday with fair and more tranquil weather. Watching a storm system for the beginning of the weekend. Right now, model camps are split – one hit, one graze, one miss. I’m leaning toward this system not reach us on Saturday other than spreading some of its high clouds into the sky.

TODAY: Cloud/sun intervals. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 39-46. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)

There’s some uncertainty as to how 2 storm systems will impact the region. Current idea is that #1 will pass just south of the region during March 12 with lots of clouds but mostly a miss for its precipitation shield, and #2 will move up and into the region during the March 13-15 period with unsettled weather including rain and snow, details to be determined. Dry weather returning at the end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)

Watching one more potential storm system that may impact the region with a variety of precipitation as we count down the final days of winter and welcome spring (Equinox on March 20). Temperatures mostly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)

A quieter stretch by March standards and certainly compared to recently is underway and will last through the next 5 days. Ironically, a large storm system will be the primary driver of the quiet pattern, as a broad low pressure area takes hold over far eastern Canada and expands it circulation to include our region, especially from Tuesday through Thursday. First, a weak area of high pressure starts us with a clear sky today but clouds from an approaching disturbance from the west will move in during the afternoon. Previously I thought this disturbance may make a hard enough run at us to bring some scattered precipitation, but it appears the organizing low to the east will be strong enough soon enough to deflect it south through Tuesday, when some of its clouds will still be moving through, then absorb it. During midweek, a couple disturbances rotating around the large low will bring us periods of clouds and maybe a passing sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow, but nothing significant. You’ll mainly notice the gusty wind that the system will provide us, and the chilly March air that accompanies it. By Friday, the low will begin to move away to the east and another area of high pressure moves in with dry, calmer weather.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 39-46. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)

Active pattern returns. Watching a couple of potential storms with rain/mix/snow threats during this 5 day period heading into mid March. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)

Active pattern continues. An additional storm threat or two with rain/mix/snow chances during the final several days of winter. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

A trough of low pressure swings through the region this morning with clouds and maybe a quick snow flurry here and there before we clear out. That trough will be ingested by a larger low pressure circulation to the east, and it is that low that will be the primary driver of our weather through the middle of the coming week with generally dry, breezy, chilly weather. The only “interruption” is a low pressure system that tries to run into things from the west on Tuesday, and makes it across our region with a band of snow or snow showers before being stopped and deflected southward, re-crossing our region as a decaying system as its absorbed by the larger low. A second shower or snow or possibly rain may occur in the area as this happens later Tuesday, leaving that as the only “unsettled” day of the next 5.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy this morning with a slight chance of a passing snow flurry, then a sun/cloud mix this afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with a period of snow or snow showers in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower again later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, becoming N in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 24-31. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

Northwesterly air flow of mainly dry and chilly weather early in the period. Watching the March 11-13 period for potential storminess. Fair weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-18)

This period of time looks cooler to colder than normal and there can still be a threat or two of wintry weather from passing low pressure systems during this time frame.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)

A stormy Saturday with a variety of precipitation (snow to the north and away from the coast, some sleet, and rain closer to the coast and down to the south). As a secondary low pressure takes over from the primary one, and heads into the waters to our east, colder air wrapping into the system will change the rain back over to snow as it is in the process of tapering to showers, providing some additional accumulation in areas that saw a burst of snow first that then went to sleet and rain, so the overall snow accumulation forecast for the event as a whole is the same as previously, but this is a reminder that in a system with “mild” air, and precipitation transitions, you’re not going to “see” all of that snowfall on the ground at once. There is settling and melting that goes on as a part of the process. Storm exits overnight and early Sunday with a few lingering snow showers around on a trough, then we get into a northwesterly air flow of mainly dry and chilly weather for the rest of the weekend and the first half of next week, with the exception of a low pressure disturbance that has to pass close to or through the region on Tuesday, on its way to be absorbed by offshore low pressure. That is our only real shot of unsettled weather after this system during the rest of this 5-day period, and it wont’ be a big deal.

TODAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet north, rain to the south, transitioning back to snow and snow showers from northwest to southeast with some additional accumulation bringing totals for the event to under 2 inches south and east of I-95 belt, 2-4 inches I-95 belt, 4-8 inches to the northwest of there. Highs 33-40. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with higher gusts early, shifting to N 10-20 MPH and gusty midday-afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning. Sun and passing clouds thereafter. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with period of snow except rain or snow in coastal areas. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)

Northwesterly air flow of mainly dry and chilly weather early in the period. Watching the March 11-13 period for potential storminess.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-17)

During the final full week of winter, expect near to below normal temperatures and the need to watch for one or two potential systems that can bring some frozen precipitation to the region.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)

High pressure provides us with a bright start to our Friday, but clouds streaming into the region ahead of our next storm system will filter and eventually blot out the sun as we move through the day. As yet another low pressure area heads for the Great Lakes, the synoptic set-up is rather similar to the low pressure area that impacted our region on Tuesday, but this time with just a slightly colder atmosphere – though not much colder. Redevelopment of low pressure will take place just to our south and the center of this one will move out along or just off the New England South Coast late tonight into Saturday. The precipitation shield arriving later tonight will do so as mainly snow for the region but there will be a rain/snow line probably around Cape Cod at the onset, maybe with some sleet along it as well, and that line will move from its initial point somewhat to the north, more so along the coast than over the interior, but nevertheless will do so, limiting snowfall accumulation in such a way that the distribution will be an increased snowfall gradient as you move north northwestward across the region. Steadiest precipitation will occur through Saturday morning with a midday break, but as low pressure heads seaward it will drag slightly colder air back in and a bit of a temperature drop may occur with the rain/snow line potentially collapsing back southeastward, especially Saturday afternoon. However as this happens the precipitation should become more spotty in nature, leaving us with just showers of snow, mix, and rain northwest to southeast across the region. A few additional snow showers may linger Saturday night into early Sunday as an inverted trough behind the storm swings through the region from north to south. In the wake of the system we will have dry and chilly weather with a gusty north to northwest wind for the balance of Sunday and into Monday too. Another low pressure system will move east southeast into the Northeast via the Great Lakes on Monday night and Tuesday, bringing some rain and snow shower activity to our region, but I don’t believe this system will have much organization and impact as it will be in the process of being absorbed by a larger low pressure circulation located to the east of New England.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arriving west to east late evening except as mix/rain Cape Cod. Steady snow overnight, possibly heavy for a while, except rain Cape Cod and snow turning to rain South Coast and eventually MA South Shore. Lows 29-36. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH coast, some over 50 MPH especially Cape Cod.

SATURDAY: Overcast through midday with snow southern NH and far northern MA, snow and sleet possibly mixed with rain Cape Ann MA down 128 to I-90 belt, and some mix but mostly rain to the south. Expected snow accumulation from little or nothing along the South Coast and Cape Cod to a coating to 2 inches just away from immediate South Coast to the MA South Shore, 2-4 inches Boston (maybe under 2 Logan Airport) to Cape Ann MA westward along the I-90 belt, 4-8 inches interior northeastern MA through central and north central MA northward through southern NH except possibly under 4 inches at the NH Seacoast. Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers, except rain showers turning to snow showers to the south, during the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with higher gusts early, shifting to N 10-20 MPH and gusty midday-afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early morning. Sun and passing clouds afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with period of snow except rain or snow in coastal areas. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)

Overall set-up features low pressure east of New England and high pressure from Canada to the Midwest until mid period with a generally dry and chilly northwesterly air flow. Low to the east departs opening the door for a possible storm system to impact our region on the March 11-12 weekend with a more widespread precipitation potential.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)

During the final full week of winter, expect near to below normal temperatures and the need to watch for one or two potential systems that can bring some frozen precipitation to the region. Obviously far too soon for any attempt at detailing these potential events.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)

The very active pattern goes on, but light is at the end of the tunnel (or at the end of the 5-day)! First, low pressure sliding northeastward through the Ohio Valley toward the interior Northeast will redevelop just south and southeast of New England today before moving steadily and quickly seaward. This system brings a swath of rainfall to our region with an atmosphere too mild to support snow, but surface temperatures cold enough so that some of that rain will be in the form of freezing rain from the Worcester Hills to the Monadnock region of southwestern NH – so use extra caution if traveling in those areas. Temperatures will rise above freezing in these areas around mid morning, putting an end to any icing. Rainfall exits our region later this morning and we have a drying trend from midday on, with the potential for some breaks of sun before day’s end. A sliver of high pressure brings dry weather tonight into Friday, but clouds will already be streaming in quickly on Friday ahead of our next storm. When all is said and done, this low pressure system will behave similarly to our last couple more important storm systems, with a primary low heading for the Great Lakes and redeveloping to move out just south of New England. But as has been the case all winter and even with a more recent pattern change to slightly colder, we don’t have quite the setup for just a snow event, so there will be a variety of precipitation, with most snow to the north and far less to the south where more rain will be involved. The rain-snow line is a little tricky with this, with even at this stage some significant differences in guidance, but I’m not really changing my initial idea from yesterday, which will be reflected in my snowfall amounts in the detailed forecast). Steadiest precipitation window is 12 hours – midnight Friday night to noon Saturday. As slightly colder air overtakes the region behind the storm, a period of scattered snow showers will be with us from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning as an inverted trough of low pressure (basically the remains of the primary low pressure area) swings through our region from northwest to southeast. The next phase of our late winter pattern emerges Monday with low pressure to the east, high pressure to the west, and a drier but chilly northwesterly air flow.

TODAY: Overcast this morning with rain likely (some freezing rain in portions of north central MA to southwestern NH for a while early), tapering off by late morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon but a few breaks of sun are possible before the end of the day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NW 5-15 MPH later in the day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east but mixed with sleet/rain South Coast which then advances north toward I-90 overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast through midday with snow southern NH and far northern MA, snow and sleet possibly mixed with rain Cape Ann MA down 128 to I-90 belt, and some mix but mostly rain to the south. Expected snow accumulation from little or nothing along the South Coast to a coating to 2 inches just away from immediate South Coast to the MA South Shore, 2-4 inches Boston (maybe under 2 Logan Airport) to Cape Ann MA westward along the I-90 belt, 4-8 inches interior northeastern MA through central and north central MA northward through southern NH except possibly under 4 inches at the NH Seacoast. Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers during the afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers during the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)

Overall set-up features low pressure east of New England and high pressure from Canada to the Midwest through at least mid period with a generally dry and chilly northwesterly air flow, but not immune to a disturbance or two bringing a few snow showers. Pattern may relax enough to allow the next low pressure system from the west to approach by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)

Return to unsettled pattern for mid March including some lingering threats of wintry precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.