DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

We finish June today with another “unsettled” day, but not a washed-out one. The overnight showers exit southeastern areas early to mid morning and we get through several rain-free hours while we wait for re-ignition of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front today. This looks like it will take place in northern and western portions of the WHW area early to mid afternoon then progress east southeastward as a broken to solid line of showers and thunderstorms. While coverage looks high percentage, duration does not. When it visits any particular spot, we’re looking at a 30 to 90 minute duration of rain, and shorter duration of heaviest rain, but enough that some brief flooding can occur in areas prone to it. Storms do have the potential to produce some damaging wind gusts and small hail as well. Rotation risk is low but non-zero, and we’d have to watch for a cell that was separated from the line – maybe an isolated cell ahead of it or just to the south of it – for that to be most likely to occur. If one of those cells were to get going, they would also be capable of producing larger hail. After the initial line starts to head out later this afternoon, a follow-up broken line should impact areas mostly from I-90 southward early this evening. Then it’s onto the dry-out tonight with a more comfortable air mass replacing the muggy one we have in place today. The outlook heading into and to the Independence Day holiday is pretty much unchanged. Monday’s a comfortable day with low humidity, but upper level low pressure will trigger diurnal cloud development and perhaps a few pop-up showers. Tuesday and Wednesday look stellar with lots of sun, manageable humidity, and a warming trend as high pressure moves in, then shifts off to the east. The holiday looks ok to me! There will be a weak frontal boundary heading through – current timing looks like morning hours – when we have to watch for a couple passing showers, and the balance of the day looks dry and warm with moderate humidity. Fine-tuning to come on that, of course.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Showers exit the South Coast region by mid morning. Showers and thunderstorms visit many areas this afternoon from west northwest to east southeast, and one additional shower or storm possible mainly I-90 southward this evening. Any storms can be strong to locally severe, but most locations will see a lesser version. Highs 79-86, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+, but starts to lower from northwest to southeast late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW late-day and evening from northwest to southeast.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. DP middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. DP near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A possible morning shower. Highs 81-88. DP near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-8)

The extended holiday weekend through July 7 features more humidity and a few shower and thunderstorm chances with a trough of low pressure moving through the region. Fair weather follows to end this period. Temperatures generally around seasonable levels.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

West to northwest flow at upper levels. A few disturbances pass by with shower / t-storm chances, but otherwise mostly dry weather, with some variation in temperature, averaging near to a little above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

The weather will be unsettled for this final weekend of June, but not a weekend “lost to the weather”. While clouds will be dominant, the rainfall that occurs will be limited to a fraction of the time in any given location. Today, a warm front approaches and we’ll spend most of the day under a vast canopy of clouds ahead of it, while most of the warm front generated rainfall will take places on the western and northern outskirts of the WHW forecast area, with just a little light rain getting into central to northeastern MA and southern NH at times and maybe a few stray sprinkles of rain working their way a little further southeast as far as the I-95 belt mainly north of I-90. It is this evening when a more formidable band of showers will push further east and south, mainly late this evening and overnight, while a few embedded heavier showers and possible thunderstorms accompany it. This will mark the arrival of higher dew point air which will then be with us for much of Sunday, until a cold front passes through from northwest to southeast. This front can have a few isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead of it, but seems to want to save most of its action for producing a narrow band of showers and thunderstorms to move through the region from northwest to southeast from mid afternoon to early evening. I believe this band may run a little ahead of the timing of most short range guidance, if you are looking at that, but I’ll monitor trends there. It’s possible that those storms can produce some hail and wind damage, but I don’t think this will be a widespread severe weather outbreak. The greatest chance for this appears to be from I-95 to southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT late afternoon to early evening Sunday. Regardless of convective activity, the front coming through will break the humidity again Sunday night as we say goodbye to June. Monday’s’ weather will feature lower humidity, but with upper level low pressure crossing the region we will see diurnal cloud development and the potential for showers to pop up along with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. High pressure builds in with great summer weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of light rain central MA to southwestern NH, with a few sprinkles of very light rain as far east as I-95. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms become more likely from west to east late evening and overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the early to mid morning. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 70 much of day, lowering late. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW late-day and evening from northwest to southeast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. DP middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. DP near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

A weak frontal boundary may pass by with a shower early on July 4, otherwise fair weather, warm air, and moderate humidity expected. A weak trough of low pressure brings a better chance of showers and thunderstorms at times for the balance of the holiday weekend period and start of the following week, but rain-free much of time. More details to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

West to northwest flow at upper levels. A few disturbances pass by with shower / t-storm chances, but otherwise mostly dry and seasonable weather is expected.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

An area of high pressure will provide beautiful weather today – plenty of sun, a pleasant northwesterly breeze, mild air, and low humidity. Our weekend doesn’t not hold this kind of pleasantry for us, but also will not be lost to the weather. Saturday’s daytime hours will feature dry weather with more cloudiness and an increase in humidity as a warm front approaches and the wind turns more southerly, and it is only late in the day when some shower and possible thunderstorm activity will wander into central MA and southern NH, finally progressing east as the night goes on. The low parenting the warm front will move to our north and its trailing cold front still has to come through the region Sunday midday or afternoon. So the period from later Saturday night through at least part of Sunday afternoon will be vulnerable to a couple or a few bands of showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours. Expect a drying trend from northwest to southeast heading into later Sunday as the front pulls through. High humidity will be with us while we’re in the “warm sector”, feeling quite tropical for a while on Sunday before the drier air arrives later on. July opens with a cooler, drier Monday, but an upper level low crossing the region will allow the sun to fire up diurnal clouds, some of which can grown enough to release a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. This exits and high pressure builds in with fair, seasonable weather for Tuesday after a cool start to the day.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point under 50. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point under 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Late-day showers possible mainly well west and north of Boston. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms become more likely from west to east late evening and overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the early to mid morning. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 70 much of day, lowering late. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

High pressure shifts offshore with fair and warmer weather on July 3. Watch for a weak frontal boundary to be around on July 4 with no more than a quick shower or t-storm otherwise mainly dry and warm weather. July 5-7 look a little more unsettled with a trough in the region, high pressure offshore, and higher humidity with greater shower / t-storm opportunities.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Typical July pattern, seasonable warmth on average, a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, and rain-free most of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

After an active night for a good portion of the region with showers and thunderstorms, including a complex of storms that caused a swath of wind damage in CT, RI, and southern MA, we are going to get a break today. The last of the showers exit the eastern shores first thing this morning, then it’s a clearing trend that follows as drier air moves in. But one more trough has to move through the region from northwest to southeast during the last few hours of daylight, and that will likely trigger at least a broken to solid but narrow band of clouds with vertical development, which can be tall enough in spots to release one more shower (very low risk of thunderstorm). These should be the exception, not the rule, and if you do get one it will be short-duration, most likely under 30 minutes. Most likely time for this is 4PM to 8PM from northwest to southeast across the WHW forecast area, with the greatest chance in the northern and western portions of the region. Shower or not, dry air overtakes the area tonight and is with us through Friday – a sparkling early summer day with mild air and low humidity, along with a nice breeze. As previously mentioned, we are in a progressive weather pattern, and the next trough and frontal system will be moving through our region over the weekend, but that doesn’t mean we’re losing both days to overcast, rainy weather. Saturday will be a rain-free daytime with just some clouds moving in at times ahead of an approaching warm front. It’s Saturday night when a round of showers and possible thunderstorms move in, but first to the west and north, eventually working through more of the region. But the bulk of this may occur during the overnight hours. Sunday will be the more unsettled day with a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms in a very humid air mass, until a cold front finally passes by. It may take much of the day for that front to get all the way across the region, and we can fine-tune those details as we get closer to and into the weekend with upcoming updates. As we welcome July on Monday, it looks like we’ll have a cooler / drier air mass in place, but with a chilly pool of air crossing our region aloft, that can be a trigger for at least the development of clouds and possible some diurnally-driven instability showers – another aspect of the forecast to be detailed as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Early showers eastern coastal areas, otherwise clouds give way to sun west to east, then additional clouds with a slight chance of a passing brief shower late-day from northwest to southeast. Highs 80-87. DP starts in 60s, ends in 50s. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late-day.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP falls to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. DP lower 50s. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Late-day showers possible mainly well west and north of Boston. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. DP rises back over 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms become more likely from west to east late evening and overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the early to mid morning. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. DP 60+ much of day, lowering late. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. DP 55 or lower. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 76-83. DP sub-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

Independence Day falls right in the middle of this forecast period which will be important for many travel / vacation / outdoor plans. The weather pattern features a west to northwest flow, starting out dry with low humidity, eventually with a warming trend and increasing humidity, but it looks like a mainly dry pattern, in terms of rain-chances, with shower and thunderstorm opportunities finally increasing toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

Typical July pattern, seasonable warmth on average, a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, and rain-free most of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

A “quiet” warm front went by overnight. The only evidence you had of it here is the variety of high and mid level clouds that appeared late yesterday and last night, and if watching radar you saw some light showers cross northern New England. This has opened the door for a one-day shot of heat and humidity, though it won’t be nearly as hot as our hot spell of last week, with most areas topping out in the upper 80s to around 90. The exception of course will be the South Coast which will feel a cooling effect from a southwesterly wind coming off the ocean water, which while it has warmed up significantly since spring, is still a couple months from reaching its summer peak. There will be a South Coast sea breeze boundary which can help trigger a few showers and even a thunderstorm this afternoon in an east-west orientation – best guess in the vicinity of I-90 but may be a bit south or even a bit north of there, so watch for developing clouds and you can get a visual clue as to what’s happening before anything forms. Much of the rest of the region will remain rain-free through the daylight hours. It’s later this evening and overnight when a more widespread batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move through the region as the cold front moves into and passes through the region. While these showers can linger over eastern areas into early Thursday morning, the bulk of Thursday is going to feature a return to sun, with passing clouds, and lowering humidity, cooler compared to today but still pleasantly warm in the afternoon without the higher dew point air. There is one more trough that has to swing through the region late in the day that can trigger a couple showers and a thunderstorm, but these should be generally isolated to widely scattered and quick-passing if/where they do occur. A fresh Canadian air mass settles in for Thursday night and Friday with low dew points, a cool nighttime and a pleasant daytime. A northwesterly air flow should keep up well into Friday which should prevent sea breezes, but the air will be refreshing anyway, along with plenty of sun to be enjoyed. The weekend will feature some weather changes. High pressure will slide offshore Saturday and a warm front will approach, bringing an increase in clouds. This front may bring some shower activity but right now I feel the bulk of that will occur west and north of Boston later in the day. It’s then overnight and Sunday morning that a cold front will approach and move through with the most widespread shower and potential thunderstorm activity, with a follow-up trough maybe popping a shower or storm in some areas Sunday afternoon before we clear out again. Humidity levels will come up again Saturday into Sunday, but without high heat, and the humidity will then break again later Sunday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A few showers and possible thunderstorms favoring the I-90 belt mid to late afternoon. Highs 77-84 South Coast region, coolest immediate shoreline, 85-92 elsewhere. DP rises to middle 60s to around 70, highest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible early, then more widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms late evening and overnight. Patchy fog forms. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the early morning. Partly sunny mid morning on. One more possible shower or thunderstorm mid afternoon to early evening northwest to southeast. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 by late-day. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW late.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP falls to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. DP lower 50s. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Mid afternoon to evening rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. DP rises back over 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms become more likely from west to east late evening and overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the early to mid morning. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. DP 60+ much of day, lowering late. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

During this holiday period we’ll see a west to northwest air flow and progressive pattern. A couple disturbances / fronts bring passing shower and t-storm chances, but it’s hard to time these this far in advance. The bulk of the period sees rain-free weather. Temperatures start out coolest, then warm to a little above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

A similar pattern to the previous period. More detail to come…

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

High pressure brings great weather today – warm but with low humidity. The high slides offshore tonight and a southwesterly air flow returns humidity to the region Wednesday along with continued very warm weather, but a cold front will be moving in our direction and likely brings a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms from later Wednesday through early Thursday. This will lead a Canadian airmass into the region with pleasant, drier weather returning during Thursday. High pressure builds in continuing really nice weather through Friday and into the weekend as well, but Saturday may see a few more clouds in advance of the next trough / frontal system to our west as we remain in a progressive weather pattern.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. DP under 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP upper 50s-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Late day showers / thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers / thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the early morning. Partly sunny mid morning on. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. DP lower 50s. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH early, becoming variable under 10 MPH with afternoon sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. DP rises to 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

A frontal boundary moving through brings a shower / thunderstorm chance the last day of June – timing TBD. High pressure brings fair weather the first several days of July leading up to the holiday. Starts out low humidity and pleasantly cool then a warming trend with increasing humidity later on.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

Watch for frontal boundaries early and again late period with shower and thunderstorm chances but otherwise mostly fair weather will be the rule with temperatures running near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

A quick blog update today. A cold front has passed, but we still have an upper low swinging through and some instability which will at least pop clouds and maybe a few showers (extremely low chance of a t-storm), favoring eastern areas midday to evening, otherwise it’s a mainly fair, drier and more comfortable day as the humidity drops, along with a busy breeze. High pressure builds in tonight and Tuesday with spectacular early summer weather, then offshore Wednesday when some heat and humidity return, but a cold front will be moving our way and will bring a shower and thunderstorm chance later Wednesday to early Thursday – timing of front will determine coverage and strength of showers and storms – stay tuned. Improving weather Thursday through Friday with a nice Canadian air mass.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA. DP falls through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog in low elevations evening, dissipating overnight. Lows 56-63. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP upper to middle 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP under 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Late day showers / thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms late evening / overnight. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

High pressure dominates the region during much of this time period, with a frontal boundary to cross somewhere mid period (estimating early July 30) when a shower / thunderstorm threat will be present. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

Independence Day forecast period including the “Fourth of July Weekend” looks decent with a west to northwest flow and only 1 or 2 brief potential interruptions from passing disturbances / frontal boundaries in an otherwise mainly dry and seasonably warm pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

Much has been said about the severe weather threat for today, but it’s important to stress this, so it’s understood. The greatest threat for severe weather (i.e., thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes) exists in the northwestern portion of the WHW forecast area – southwestern NH and north central MA, as the eastern extension of the higher threat area which extends further into NH, VT, and much of western MA, as well as adjacent eastern NY. Timing and atmospheric conditions are less favorable for severe storms further east and south, but that’s not to say a few areas cannot see strong to even severe storms. The chance is just less likely in the bulk of the WHW forecast area. Now, let’s rewind several hours to now, and go forward. As I write this discussion at about 8:00 a.m. Sunday morning, a downpour is occurring outside my window here in Woburn MA, one among a cluster of them, a few containing thunder, and follow-ups to some overnight activity too. These are associated with the frontal boundary that came through on Friday as a back door cold front, and is now returning as a warm front. Where it’s not raining at any given moment, it’s overcast and there may be fog, due to the saturated air in place. So our day starts out quite dank, but as the front pushes through, the shower threat drops off for several hours, and we break the clouds and start to add more sun to the mix, making the temperature go up as the humidity remains high. So we’ll be in for a summery feeling day, and some of this will aid in the development of thunderstorms later. Starting about mid afternoon, we’ll have to watch for isolated storms reaching central MA and southwestern NH. It is from this point through early evening that the greatest chance of severe storms exists. Further east, there can be isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms, but as previously mentioned, the severe weather threat is less. We’ll have to watch to see if any more organized clusters or small lines of storms can form, because these can create their own momentum in the form of cyclic regeneration with the help of outflow boundaries. However, these would have less rotation potential and greater straight-line wind potential. Again, these still favor areas west of I-95 and later in the day into the evening, but as we get into the evening, at least weakened forms of these can make it further east. This takes places as a trough of low pressure, in this case a pre-frontal trough (trough of low pressure ahead of a cold front) makes its approach. This feature will pass by tonight, and until it does so, we can still see some scattered to isolated showers and storms, even after the severe weather threat has diminished. Monday, the cold front will sweep through the region, and it’ll be a little colder aloft with a trough up there swinging through. While there will be less moisture to work with, there can still be and probably will be some showers and storms firing up. While I’m not looking for too much in the way of severe weather, an isolated storm or two can be capable of hail and a damaging wind gust Monday afternoon to early evening. Finally, it all departs Monday night and this leads us to a great early summer day on Tuesday as high pressure builds in with warm, dry conditions. High pressure then slips offshore and Wednesday is a very warm day with some increase in humidity. A progressive pattern brings the next frontal boundary across the region sometime Wednesday night or Thursday, based on current timing, but this system looks like it will only bring a short-lived shower and thunderstorm chance, leaning toward late Wednesday night / early Thursday right now…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and scattered showers / thunderstorms with briefly heavy rain until late morning, then breaking clouds and partial sun by midday into afternoon, with isolated showers / thunderstorms possible by mid afternoon, favoring areas west of the I-95 belt, and late-day stronger storms possible favoring north central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Dew point rises to around 70. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH until late morning, shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts midday on. Damaging wind gusts can occur near any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, with the potential for a few strong to severe storms favoring areas west of I-95 and especially west of I-495 and north of I-90. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms possible but diminishing overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W and diminishing, but wind can be briefly strong and gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly late morning on. Highs 75-82. DP starts in 60s but a slow downward trend. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially around any storms where wind can be more variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible. Patchy ground fog in low elevations evening, dissipating overnight. Lows 56-63. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP upper to middle 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP under 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms late evening / overnight. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms int he morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

High pressure dominates the region during much of this time period, with a frontal boundary to cross somewhere mid period (estimating early July 30) when a shower / thunderstorm threat will be present. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

Independence Day forecast period including the “Fourth of July Weekend” looks decent with a west to northwest flow and only 1 or 2 brief potential interruptions from passing disturbances / frontal boundaries in an otherwise mainly dry and seasonably warm pattern. More details to come…

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

We’ve been fortunate with late spring weekend weather, with many nice weekend days and in a few cases entire weekends with no weather woes. This is our first weekend of astronomical summer, and might trigger a memory or two of how many of our summer weekends went in 2023. But this is merely coincidence and doesn’t actually predict anything about the weekends to come this summer. Beware – the mainstream media may try to convince you otherwise. Haha! Half-joking aside, our focus on this weekend’s weather highlights an unsettled pattern, but neither day a “wash-out”. The big ole ridge of high pressure that delivered a hot spell at mid week and started a retreat back to the west a little at the end of the week now sits in the Midwest, with our region on the edge of a quasi-ring-of-fire. The term “ring of fire” in association to weather refers to the edges of a high pressure ridge, particularly during the warm season, where disturbances and resultant showers and thunderstorms often track. We also had a back-door cold front move through the region yesterday, not only shutting down the heat at the surface, but also adding another ingredient into creating some showers and storms. We saw that yesterday as a pretty solid area of showers/storms formed, then progressed slowly eastward, but weakened as it moved into the marine air over much of our forecast area. They didn’t dissipate quickly enough to avoid bringing rain to much of the region though, but they moved out late last night leaving us with a mainly cloudy, clammy atmosphere to start the weekend. So now what? Today, the frontal boundary that moved through yesterday will hang out to our southwest, and may help trigger a few additional showers and storms in the southwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area, while a disturbance riding the ridge moves across northern New England later today before exiting via the Gulf of Maine this evening. This disturbance can help set off a cluster or two of showers and possible thunderstorms that can traverse parts of the region this afternoon and early evening. There will be somewhat limited solar heating with the extensive cloud cover in place, so I don’t think any real organized severe storms will get going, but with the disturbance present, they should not be ignored either. I’d not cancel any outdoor plans today, but keep a close eye to the sky / radar and have a plan in place should you have to dodge something. The frontal boundary to the southwest will start to lift northeastward tonight and Sunday, and while we end up on the other side of it on Sunday, we won’t return to the high heat of midweek, but it will be noticeably much warmer and continued quite humid, with more sunshine than today will offer. A trough of low pressure will be moving eastward into this warm and humid air mass during the day, and with more solar heating to work with, a more organized cluster or line (or two) of showers and storms should form to our west and move into our region later in the day or early evening. I can’t rule out isolated showers and storms ahead of this, but I do think most of the daytime will be rain-free, just muggy and very warm, but with a somewhat helpful busy southwesterly wind at least moving the air about for ventilation. So keep a watch for the late-day storms, which can be strong to locally severe. There’s even some potential for rotating storms, especially if they are not part of an organized line, with more wind shear present in the atmosphere. In addition, the unstable atmosphere lingers into the nighttime, allowing for additional development of shower/storms behind any main cluster(s) / line(s). In additional to severe weather potential (hail / strong wind) with some storms, areas that see some heavy rain training can be prone to flooding. Activity should settle down late at night / overnight / early Monday, but we still have a cold front to traverse the region during Monday, probably not passing through until sometime Monday evening. So we’ll see a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms Monday – another unsettled day. Finally, a nice Canadian high pressure area will deliver fair weather with drier air for Tuesday, but the progressive nature of the pattern will allow that high to slide offshore, making Wednesday warmer and more humid, but with a continuation of fair weather. I hope you read all of that carefully. I might give you a pop quiz. 😉

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A possible shower and a slight chance of a thunderstorm at any time this afternoon and early evening. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. DP 60+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible early to mid afternoon. A better chance of showers/thunderstorms west to east later in the day. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. DP rising to near 70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, diminishing, but can be briefly strong and gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the afternoon and evening. Highs 75-82. DP near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with evening showers and thunderstorms, then clearing. Areas of ground fog. Lows 55-62. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP under 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

A cold front passing through the region brings a shower and thunderstorm chance June 27, timing uncertain this far in advance. High pressure builds in with refreshing air June 28 then moves overhead then offshore during the final weekend of the month and to greet July, with a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

Holiday time period forecast which will have much scrutiny and importance. Large scale pattern looks like a progressive west to northwest flow with an upper high pressure ridge back in the Midwest region. This keeps us out of persistent heat but also leaves the door open for a couple rounds of passing showers/storms with disturbances moving through, so it’ll come down to timing regarding travel / summer holiday plans. And we have a long way to go before we can fine-tune those details, but there’s your early general idea. Actually looks like a pretty decent pattern overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

A back-door cold front moves across the region from northeast to southwest today, shutting down the heat we’d been experiencing for the last few days. While it doesn’t bring very dry air – we’ll still be humid with a marine air delivery – it’ll be more tolerable than the combination of humidity with heat. The frontal boundary can trigger some showers and thunderstorms as today goes on, but with its movement, these will be more likely west of I-95 and south of I-90, though a few cannot be ruled out elsewhere. During the course of the weekend, the frontal boundary will hang out nearby – just to the southwest, making an attempt to push northeastward again Sunday. Both days include opportunities for convective activity in the form of showers and thunderstorms, with Saturday’s activity more limited to the region southwest of Boston, expanding to include more of the region Sunday. There will be some details to work out and a lot of radar watching to do, so while I would not outright cancel any weekend plans outside, be prepared to monitor and have a back-up plan if possible. Finally on Monday one more disturbance moving through from the west will bring additional showers and thunderstorms before we see the arrival of fair, dry weather Tuesday as high pressure arrives in its wake.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and favoring areas west and south of Boston. Highs 74-81 coast, 81-88 inland occurring by midday followed by a slow temperature fall northeast to southwest. DP 60+. Wind shifting to N and NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast and far west of Boston. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible mainly south and west of Boston. Lows 61-68. DP around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston, but possible anywhere, including the slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland, coolest coastal areas. DP upper 60s to near 70. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82. DP near 70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with evening showers and thunderstorms, then clearing. Areas of ground fog. Lows 55-62. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

A quick-moving disturbance brings a brief shower / t-storm chance mid period in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with dominant high pressure. Variable temperatures, maybe a quick spike of very warm, then seasonable, then a late-period warm-up again.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

A west to northwest flow with a high pressure ridge in the Midwest means a couple shower / t-storm chances and variable temperatures mainly near to a little above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)

Spring to Summer – but already feeling like mid summer today! Solstice occurs at 4:50 p.m. …and it’s gonna be another hot day across the region (a little cooler in direct ocean wind South Coast regions). Use caution if outside. This, of course, is due to a continuation of high pressure parked to our south and an upper level high pressure ridge along the East Coast. Locally, our dew point may come down a bit today if we get enough west wind, but that can make the air temperature a little hotter due to a down slope of the air off the hills / mountains to the west. A few records can be matched or fall today. Another thing to monitor for today are thunderstorms which can pop up air-mass style any time after noon or 1 p.m. and then we may see a more organized line sweep part of the region late afternoon or evening. This is in advance of a cold front approaching from the north. That front will pass by our area on Friday, shutting the big heat down. While the humidity will lessen, don’t expect a crispy-dry Canadian air mass. But it will be “better” nonetheless. And this will also last on Saturday with enough influence from an eastern Canadian high pressure area. As for weather, we can still see some scattered shower activity Friday with the front passing by, and Saturday less so, but favoring areas to the south and west, closer to a a slowing frontal boundary. This front will try to amble back to the north Sunday, a more humid day, with additional showers possible over more of the region, including a thunderstorm chance too. Sunday’s not a wash-out, but likely more regionally unsettled than Saturday. One more disturbance comes through from the west Monday with additional showers and thunderstorms likely.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms develop. A more organized thunderstorm line potentially from southern NH into northern and central MA late day / early evening. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP around 70 may lower somewhat during the day. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Shower/thunderstorm chance early, then isolated showers overnight. Lows 71-78, warmest urban centers. DP upper 60s to near 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Potential for scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring the I-90 belt southward. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland areas, warmest southwest of Boston. DP 60s. Wind shifting to N and NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast and far west of Boston. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible mainly south and west of Boston. Lows 61-68. DP around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston, including the slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. DP upper 60s to near 70. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82. DP near 70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)

A large high pressure area builds in with fair, drier weather much of this period, starting with seasonable temperatures then a late-period warm up.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

A west to northwest flow with a high pressure ridge in the Midwest means a couple shower / t-storm chances and variable temperatures mainly near to a little above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

Two days of heat before a cold front from the north turns the dial down a few notches for Friday and the coming weekend. As previously discussed, the combination of a strong upper level ridge on the East Coast and surface high pressure to the south brings us the end-of-spring / start-of-summer blast furnace. We greet summer officially with the occurrence of the solstice at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday. Thunderstorm chances are pretty small today, with just a few isolated pop-ups possible in the region from central MA’s hills to southern NH late afternoon to early evening, and the chance goes up a little bit on Thursday as we start to feel the effects of an approaching cold front from the north, with the threat that day being of isolated to scattered storms in the late afternoon and evening, favoring areas north of the Route 2 corridor, especially southern NH. A few of these can survive a little further southward at night and into early Friday. Frontal timing looks fairly early on Friday with a regionwide shift of wind to north and northeast from north to south during the morning and midday hours, preventing much of the region from having time to rise to or above 90. Additionally, a lot more clouds will hang around on Friday and there can be a few additional showers around. Canadian high pressure should be strong enough to limit Saturday’s shower threat to the South Coast and the hills to the west, with much of the region enjoying dry weather. Sunday, however, the boundary will attempt a comeback with clouds becoming more dominant, and a shower threat, but again greatest to the south and west.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms, favoring north central MA and southern NH late-day. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible mainly southern NH and far northern MA. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Potential for scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring the I-90 belt southward. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland areas, warmest southwest of Boston. DP 60s. Wind shifting to N and NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast and far west of Boston. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible mainly south and west of Boston. Lows 61-68. DP around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

Additional showers and thunderstorms possible in the region as a disturbance moves through from west to east June 24. This should be followed by a return to mainly fair and dry weather for mid period, with a possible shower as some warmth/humidity tries to return end of period. But the large scale pattern should feature less East Coast ridge, which will be back to the west with more of a west to northwest flow in our region.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks similar with high pressure ridge centered mainly Midwest, may nudge eastward to western Great Lakes. Variable temperatures, no long hot stretch, dry most of time, but passing disturbances bring brief shower/t-storm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

All on track from a blast of heat as high pressure aloft dominates the East Coast and surface high pressure to the south delivers the early season blast furnace over the next few days, as we lead up to the astronomical arrival of summer with the solstice, which occurs at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday. General details of the forecast remain the same – hottest away from South Coast, moderate to high dew points but mainly staying under the oppressive threshold of 70, with a chance it drops off as a southwesterly air flow becomes more westerly on Thursday. Minimal pop up thunderstorm chances exist Wednesday and Thursday. A better chance of a few showers and storms will occur Friday as a front drops down from the north and cuts off what would have been a longer period of higher heat. You will be able to thank eastern Canadian high pressure for that. I still think this high presses far enough south for much of the region to be fairly comfortable and rain-free Saturday, though still can see showers/storms closer to the South Coast where the front will be hanging around.

TODAY: Patchy clouds for a while, then mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 83-90 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere, hottest over interior valleys. DP rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. DP 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Very slight chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Potential for scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere, occurring by midday before a temperature fall from north to south during midday and afternoon hours. DP 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N and NE north to south midday on.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

Watch June 23-25 for a few opportunities of showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary that comes into the region late week hangs around and tries to push back north. Details to be worked out for this period still. Generally fair, warm weather is anticipated with a more westerly flow by the middle of next week after a disturbance passes by, made possible by a retrogression of the upper ridge away from the East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks similar with high pressure ridge centered mainly Midwest, may nudge eastward to western Great Lakes. Variable temperatures, no long hot stretch, dry most of time, but passing disturbances bring brief shower/t-storm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

As we head through the final few days of spring and start summer this week (solstice is Thursday at 4:50 p.m. EDT), we have some intense summer heat to talk about. But before we get there, a day and part of another day of transition, after a comfortable weekend. Today we see some varying cloud cover in response to a warm front moving across the region. It is this front that opens the door to the hot weather, and as high pressure builds offshore at the surface and a strong upper level ridge dominates the East Coast, we’ll see the heat build quickly tomorrow through mid week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday. It’s when we get to the end of the week that the puzzle to solve is a cold front dropping southward from Canada, with another surface high up there representing a cooler air mass. As has been my thought process for a while, I think that front will move through the region on Friday – exact timing to be a factor in high temps and any drop off that day. As far as any other rain threats leading up to the frontal situation, there would about up to about a 10% chance of a pop up air mass thunderstorm in a few locations Wednesday and/or Thursday afternoons. Don’t count on seeing any in one particular location, but keep in mind that the chance is greater than 0%. In addition, during the hottest weather this week, the southwesterly air flow that is transporting the heat into our region will pass over ocean water and therefore the typical modifying influence in temperature will take place for the South Coast region, especially Cape Cod.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around or over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. DP approaches 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 83-90 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere, hottest over interior valleys. DP rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. DP 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Very slight chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Potential for scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere, occurring by midday before a temperature fall from north to south during midday and afternoon hours. DP 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N and NE north to south midday on.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

Forecast scenario for the June 22-23 weekend is for the frontal boundary that comes through Friday to stay just south of the region on Saturday with a shower/t-storm chance well south and west of Boston, fair elsewhere, moderate humidity, and not too hot (70s coast, 80s inland), and the frontal boundary to try to make a come-back on Sunday with more clouds and potentially more of a shower threat eventually, but still not hot (70s coast, around 80 inland). We may get back into a little bit of very warm to hot weather and notable humidity during the first part of next week, but with some retrogression of large scale features, including the high pressure ridge that causes this week’s heat, this would be a far less intense spell of heat, and may come with additional showers / t-storms with a disturbance or two moving through the region from the west and northwest. Much to fine-tune.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks the same with high pressure centered in the Midwest and a west to northwest flow here, limited heat but variable temperatures, dry most of the time but a few shower / storm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

High pressure brings beautiful weather to our region during today with lots of sunshine, mild air, and low humidity. The high then builds offshore, and as an anomalous upper ridge of high pressure overtakes the East Coast, we’ll undergo a quick warm-up leading to a hot spell as we head into and through the middle of the coming week. Some records will be challenged. There will be some opportunity for slightly cooler sea breezes in coastal areas, especially the South Coast where the predominant wind direction will often have some ocean component to it. I do think that the upper atmosphere will be too warm and capped to support any isolated thunderstorms so for now those will be left out of the forecast. We may keep the dew points below the “oppressive” range as well during this spell, which while of limited benefit it is still of some benefit in terms of total comfort factor. Fittingly, the summer solstice occurs at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday.

TODAY: Abundant sun – some high clouds. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, coolest South Coast. Dew point breaks 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 67-74, warmest urban centers. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 91-98, except cooler South Coast. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 92-99, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+ but may fall to upper 50s. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

Watch for a cold front to slip down from the north and northeast June 21, bringing a shower/thunderstorm chance, a wind shift, and a potential cool-down with details depending on the timing of the frontal boundary. Canadian high pressure may be strong enough to bring us a fair weather and more comfortable day lacking heat and humidity on June 22 into June 23 before a the front tries to return with higher humidity and unsettled weather chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

A general westerly to northwesterly air flow with high pressure ridging further west (in the Midwest / Ohio Valley). This keeps us out of persistent heat, though brief heat can occur, along with a few shower and t-storm chances in an otherwise mainly dry pattern.