DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)
A couple of hotter days are going to start the month of August here in southeastern New England. It won’t be searing nor will we break any records, but hot enough for a heat advisory to be issued by the NWS today (through tomorrow too). Today will feature a shift in wind more to the west behind a trough moving offshore. This will bring a slight down-slope drying and dew points that were 70+ everywhere can fall below 70 for several hours. A persistent high offshore will help turn winds back to southwest and bump up the humidity again for Friday. The shower and thunderstorm threat becomes minimal today, under 10%, and only nudges up slightly on Friday, with the greatest chance to see any activity being central MA to eastern CT later in the day as a result of activity developing further west of there and moving into that region. Odds are pretty low to see showers and storms elsewhere on Friday, so by and large just a couple hot summer days ahead – “least humid” today, more oppressive tomorrow. The weekend continues the theme of high humidity, but 90-degree high temps should be absent as we’ll see more cloud cover and a better chance at showers and thunderstorms. Right now, Saturday may be a complex day in terms of pin pointing showers and storms. There are indications of some morning to midday activity, favoring areas west and north of Boston, with a weak disturbance moving through. I’ve also seen a few hints on some reliable guidance of a type of MCS that may evolve somewhere between the Great Lakes and western New England that could drop southward, maybe through parts of southwestern New England, but also take most of the available moisture with it, leaving much of SNE storm-free later Saturday. This is a gamble of a forecast and one where the details may be different, so for now I’m just going to play this as isolated to scattered storm chances and fine-tune it with tomorrow’s and Saturday’s morning blog updates. Sunday stands a better chance of more widespread activity as a slow moving cold front enters the region from the northwest. This front may take until sometime Monday to fully pass through, so that looks like a transition day to lower humidity, gradually, with still the opportunity for showers around. Also, this being day 5, and least-certain, the outlook will be revisited several times in coming updates.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy An isolated shower or thunderstorm favoring southwestern NH and north central MA first half of the afternoon. Highs 85-92, except a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point falls below 70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late in the day, favoring central MA and eastern CT. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, can be stronger near any storms.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring southern areas. Highs 78-85. Dew point lowering gradually through 60s. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)
Increased humidity and shower chances may return toward the middle of next week as a transition between a briefly drier pattern and a more summary one. There will be a lot of sorting out day to day details to do.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)
No major heat indicated, but somewhat variable / near normal temperatures overall, with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities.