DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

The same pattern we had over the weekend holds today as we say bye to September and Tuesday as we welcome October, and that is high pressure to the north – stretch out low pressure to the south, and generally light easterly flow here, with dry weather, but plenty of clouds and limited sun, though we will see more sunshine today than we are likely to see on Tuesday. This pattern will break down at midweek. A cold front will move through from west to east late Wednesday, but only with limited rain shower threat as it won’t have a lot of moisture to work with. High pressure builds in with dry and seasonable weather Thursday, followed by a Friday warm-up.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 66-73. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Considerably cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog in lowest elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Frontal system / trough moves through early in the October 5-6 weekend with a rain shower threat followed by dry and seasonable weather. Another disturbance brings a rain shower chance October 7 before fair weather returns, as a west to east flow becomes more established. Temperatures variable but no extremes indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Brief interruptions from passing disturbances in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with a westerly flow more dominant. No temperature extremes.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Not really any changes to write about after yesterday’s forecast update. High pressure to the north and low pressure to the south remain in place as the pattern remains in a blocking configuration. This puts us in a light flow of air off the Atlantic and while an abundance of ocean stratus dominate the lower levels, above that are mid and high level clouds associated with what was Hurricane Helene. The surface low from that system remains quasi-stationary in the Ohio Valley / Tennessee Valley region but will drift eastward the next few days. Our weather here doesn’t change much through Monday from the initial set-up described above. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure gives way to a trough from the west. Most of the moisture from the low pressure area to the south will stay south of New England and we’ll just see a round of showers Wednesday from a frontal system coming through the region. This exits and high pressure builds back in by Thursday with fair, seasonable early autumn weather.

TODAY / TONIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Considerably cloudy. Partial sun possible daytimes. Patchy ground fog possible nighttime hours. Highs 64-71. Lows 50-57. Wind often E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Weakening blocking / quasi-zonal flow. High pressure shifts east for a fair, milder October 4. Quick moving trough brings a rain shower chance October 5. Dry October 6. Unsettled weather chance returns at the end of the period. Some up and down temps but no extremes indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Brief interruptions from passing disturbances in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with a westerly flow more dominant. No temperature extremes.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

The next 3 days, the final 3 days of September, we will have our weather controlled by high pressure and low pressure. Elaboration follows. Our sensible weather, or “sense-able” conditions, what we can feel, will be controlled by high pressure to our north, which provides dry weather, comfortable air, and a light onshore (easterly air flow). Our visible weather, or the sky condition, will be controlled by the low pressure area that was once Hurricane Helene – a storm that brought devastating flooding to parts of the southeastern US, but now spins over the lower Ohio Valley as a remnant low, partially trapped in the ongoing blocking pattern. While the surface feature is spinning around out there, mid and upper level winds have peeled a lot of the remaining moisture off the system and blown it eastward while its expansion and momentum carried it northward as well. For our region, what this resulted in was a high cloud shield that overspread the sky Friday afternoon and a continuation of high (and some middle) clouds across the sky often in abundance the next few days. But much of the time during the day these clouds will be thin enough to allow some sunshine, or even provide a nice sunrise such as much of the region saw just a short while before I started writing this update. Here lies another example of the range of conditions one weather system can bring – from devastating flooding to picturesque sunrise. This is nature – brutality and beauty, often occurring simultaneously. My thoughts are with the storm’s victims. For our area, once we get through these 3 fairly similar weather days, and welcome October, we will see a turn to more unsettled weather for the final 2 days of this forecast period which are also the first 2 days of the new month. Tuesday, clouds thicken ahead of a trough from the west and moisture from the south – some of this being the “remainder of the remains” of Helene. This brings us a chance of some wet weather Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure tracks to our south and a cold front cruises by from the west. At days 4 & 5 in the forecast I still have to sort out some details with this, but my initial feeling is that the bulk of the moisture from the redevelopment of Helene’s remnant low will track just to our south while the cold front brings a brief period of wet weather, focused on Wednesday.

TODAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds cover the sky. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: High clouds hang on. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring the South Coast. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 63-70. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Weakening blocking / quasi-zonal flow. High pressure brings fair, cooler weather October 3 and a milder October 4. Quick-moving front brings brief shower chance October 5. Another high pressure brings dry weather back after that but if systems move quickly enough the next shower threat may already arrive before the end of the period around October 7.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A zonal flow pattern should be more established at this point with fair weather sandwiching a mid-period unsettled interlude with a passing trough. We’ll be watching for the first frost for some areas in this time frame.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

A cold front has pushed through and the last of any showers associated with it near the South Coast come to an end early today. The cloud canopy associated with the front is a little slower to depart and will do so gradually from northwest to southeast during this morning and midday, and just as it exits, a shield of high clouds on the northern fringes of Helene will start to appear in our sky from south to north. This cloud shield will dim the sun Saturday and Sunday, and a northeasterly air flow can also push a few lower clouds in from the ocean. Other than those clouds to contend with, the next several days will be rather nice around here with dry, pleasant conditions, in stark contrast to the major issues created by Hurricane Helene in the southeastern US. Thankfully a blocking pattern in place prevents that storm from coming right up here in any formidable fashion. Yes, we need rain still, but an open pattern could have allowed such a storm with already a lot of forward speed to maintain some decent strength and cross the Southeast and come up the coast. Not the case here. The remnant low sits over the lower Ohio Valley this weekend and some of the remnant moisture peels off to the east and stays well south of New England while high pressure to our north keeps us dry through Monday. It is on Tuesday when things start to move a little more, and a mid latitude trough starts to approach from the west. Our next shot at wet weather from this system, and some of the remaining moisture formerly associated with Helene to the south, comes as this system sends moisture at us from the west and south later Tuesday.

TODAY: Any early showers end South Coast, and clouds give way to sun northwest to southeast. Highs 64-71. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds increasing south to north. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: High clouds cover the sky. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear except patchy radiation fog in low elevation locations. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain chance late. Highs 65-72. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Wet weather chance October 2 with passing trough. Mostly dry pattern follows this with only a minor shower threat around October 5 from a front moving through.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Pattern looks fairly dry with a slow transition to a more zonal flow. Variable temperatures – might be a significant cool shot and frost chances.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Today is our most unsettled day this week with some beneficial showers to be had as a warm front scoots through this morning then a cold front follows it this afternoon and evening, parented by a low pressure wave passing just north of the region. Some of the rainfall associated with the system can be on the heavy side, and it’ll be just unstable enough that embedded thunderstorms are also possible. Keep all this in mind when traveling about today, especially this afternoon and evening. High pressure to the north builds in Friday and holds through the weekend into Monday. This system will clear the region out tomorrow, though some cloudiness and very early morning showers can linger closer to the South Coast. Hurricane Helene, a devastating storm battering the eastern Gulf of Mexico and parts of the southeastern US, will spread the northern portion of its cloud shield into our region Friday night into the weekend, but the blocking high will keep the rain well away from our region into early next week.

TODAY: Cloudy. Showers arriving and becoming more frequent during the day, including the chance of some downpours and embedded thunder later. Highs 61-68. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Lingering showers mostly south of I-90 overnight. Areas of fog developing. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Early morning showers exit the South Coast as clouds diminish. Sun and passing clouds mid morning on. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High clouds increasing south to north. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: High clouds decrease north to south. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered to brighter sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

A trough from the west delivers a good shower / rain chance later October 1 into October 2, and a front late in the period brings another shower chance. Variable temperatures – no extremes.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Pattern looks fairly dry with a slow transition to a more zonal flow. Variable temperatures – might be a significant cool shot included.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

The blocking pattern in place stays in place through this forecast period. High pressure at the surface is far enough north that an east to southeast flow off the ocean drives broken marine layer clouds into our region while a trough approaching from the west spreads its high to mid level clouds in. Summation: A generally cloudy day today. Low pressure associated with the approaching upper trough is expected to track just north of the region on Thursday. Its warm front will bring a bout of rain early morning to midday Thursday, and its cold front will likely bring a briefer period of moderate to heavy showers and possible thunderstorms, with a brief break in between. This system will move off to the east southeast Thursday night and early Friday with a clearing trend will take place, and high pressure again builds to the north of the region. With this we see a return of dry weather Friday and over the weekend. Meanwhile, strengthening Tropical Storm Helene, soon to be a hurricane, will track northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and its landfall point is most likely on the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle. Big trouble for that region with rain, wind, and coastal storm surge. Thankfully it appears the core of that hurricane will come ashore in a relatively sparsely populated area, lessening the property impact aspect. Often when we see these systems down there, we hear from their remnants eventually. We will, and we won’t. Huh? What does that mean? It means this. Friday night and Saturday the cloud shield will make it into our sky. It remains to be seen how thick it will get in terms of a limiting factor for Saturday sunshine, but I’ll take a look at that as we get closer to it. Blocking high pressure will keep the rainfall from the system far to our south, hence the dry forecast.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives west to east overnight. Patchy fog forming. Lows 53-60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely until mid afternoon, tapering west to east. Patchy fog. Highs 61-68. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Moderate to heavy showers and possible embedded thunder moving northwest to southeast across the region. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Early morning showers exit the South Coast as clouds diminish. Sun and passing clouds mid morning on. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High clouds increasing south to north. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: High clouds decrease north to south. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered to brighter sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Blocking high pressure is expected to keep tropical moisture to our south early in the period. Some remnants of that moisture combined with a trough from the west will bring a brief period of unsettled weather in the October 1-2 time window before fair weather returns. Temperatures variable, moderating early in the period, cooling late period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

A early-period unsettled interlude as the pattern shifts from blocking to quasi-zonal (more west to east flow). No temperature extremes expected.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

On goes the blocking, and our broad scale flow of air off the Atlantic continues during the next 2 days. But today there will be more sun than we saw yesterday, and tomorrow more cloudiness will return both from the ocean due to more moisture from the ocean, and from the west due to the approach of a trough. This trough will bring with it a low pressure area that will deliver showery weather later from late Wednesday night until Thursday evening, so the one really unsettled day of this 5-day period is Thursday. The system moves along and high pressure builds in from eastern Canada for dry weather to return later in the week.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches form in lower elevation locations. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Overnight showers. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Patchy fog. Highs 62-69. Wind SE 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Showers end, clouds break, and patchy fog develops. Lows 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 45-52. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Blocking high pressure is expected to keep tropical moisture to our south early in the period. Some remnants of that moisture combined with a trough from the west will bring a brief period of unsettled weather in the October 1-2 time window before fair weather returns. Temperatures variable, moderating early in the period, chill-down late period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

A mid-period unsettled interlude as the pattern shifts from blocking to quasi-zonal (more west to east flow). Details TBD. No temperature extremes expected.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Our weather pattern continues to be governed by blocking in the northern hemisphere, and while it allowed low pressure northward enough for some wet weather for part of the weekend, high pressure regains control for dry weather the next few days. There will be another give by high pressure starting at midweek as a trough approaches from the west, bringing wet weather Wednesday night and Thursday. Currently, it looks like the next system will be a little more west-to-east progressive underneath the blocking high so that we dry out at the end of the week. A broad scale northeasterly air flow will keep us on the cool side through midweek, with an interruption in that flow and a more variable wind as low pressure passes through, then a return to a cool north to northeast flow late week.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late-day, favoring western areas. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Highs 62-69. Wind SE 5-15 MPH becoming variable, eventually W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Showers end, clouds break, and patchy fog develops. Lows 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Looking ahead to the September 28-29 weekend, we must note the increasing liklihood of a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall later this week somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Sometimes moisture from such a system will waste no time streaming northward and reaching our area, but the current indications are that blocking high pressure will be strong enough to keep this away and keep our area dry. Will monitor trends for this. Pattern still looks drier now heading out of September into early October but minor front from the west may bring a brief shower interruption.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Transition from blocking to quasi-zonal may mean a bout of wet weather at some point in this period of time, but the overall pattern still looks fairly dry most of the time. Temperatures variable, but no extremes.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Counting down the final minutes to summer as I write this morning’s update, when I post it there will probably be only a handful of minutes until the autumnal equinox at 8:43 a.m. EDT this morning. So, goodbye summer, and happy autumn! I’d love to say that today’s weather is going to be stellar, but clearly, low pressure put my overly-optimistic forecast for this weekend to shame, first giving us a more widespread rainfall lasting much of the day in much of the region yesterday. Some areas further to the west did miss out on the beneficial rain, and “too much” rain fell on parts of Cape Cod where 4+ inches were recorded. But overall, a beneficial rain event for many of the areas in southeastern New England that had been dry. And even today is not as “nice” as I had said. While most of the region ends up dry, it takes several more hours to rid ourselves of the rain chance in southeastern MA, and the persistent onshore flow with the storm still not that far away will hold a lot of clouds in, limiting the sun that I also forecast too optimistically for today. Additionally, coastal areas will have to deal with splashover and minor flooding at and around times of high tide due to the persistent onshore flow and still somewhat high astronomical tides. So, while we continue in a blocking pattern into the week ahead, it’s a different enough configuration that we now find ourselves on the unsettled side. That said, I do expect rain-free weather Monday and Tuesday as a weak area of high pressure does build in. However, the center of this high being to the north allows a continues broad scale onshore flow, which means it won’t be as sunny as if the high were parked atop our area. So we’ll have clouds to deal with even if no rainfall. Heading into midweek, systems move enough to allow another trough of low pressure to move our way from the Great Lakes, bringing back the rain chance by later Wednesday and most especially Thursday.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, partial sun. Shower chances continue this morning southeastern MA before ending. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Considerably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late-day, favoring western areas. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Highs 62-69. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Low pressure may linger around the region the first day or two of this period with more wet weather, but it’s unclear how quickly it will move out. Better chances for drier weather come mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Somewhat more zonal pattern may get going here, with quicker-passing mostly minor systems bringing brief shower chances. Temperatures variable, but no extremes.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Offshore low pressure spins and sends lots of clouds and some wet weather into the region today, but a drying trend will begin from north to south this afternoon and continue tonight into Sunday, which will be the better of the 2 weekend days. Coastal areas will continue to have some flooding issues around high tides due to persistent northeast winds and astronomically high tides. The autumnal equinox occurs at 8:43 a.m. EDT on Sunday. High pressure builds in with dry weather for the beginning of the week. The next low pressure system approaches and brings a rainfall chance by midweek.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain / drizzle. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially near the coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Some drizzle / rain can linger mainly south of Boston. Lows 49-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers or rain late in the day. Highs 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Low pressure brings a rain chance early in the period, followed by drier, cooler weather as it departs and high pressure returns to control.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)

A trough brings a shot at showers early period, then dry weather again. Temperatures variable, averaging close to or a little above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

While blocking goes on, it has allowed low pressure far enough north to impact our region with clouds and some wet weather. Though we’re not in for a deluge, and could certainly use any rain that falls, we’ll see some occasional rain today and lingering into early Saturday before it dries out again from north to south. The highest rainfall amounts will occur over Cape Cod where it will rain longest from this event. A cooler northeasterly air flow will last from this unsettled period right through the dry-out period during the weekend, and it’ll definitely feel more “the season” as we welcome autumn with the occurrence of the equinox at 8:43 a.m. EDT Sunday. High pressure will keep our region dry again early next week.

TODAY / TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic rain and drizzle, favoring eastern and southern areas mainly east and southeast of a line from I-95 to I-90 to I-86. Highs 61-68. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering rain eastern and southern areas in the morning then trending drier. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Another trough / low pressure area brings a wet weather chance around September 25-26. Dry weather follows. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

A more zonal pattern evolves. Two frontal passages bring brief shower chances otherwise drier and a slight cooling trend.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

On goes the atmospheric blocking, but it has shifted just enough to allow low pressure to the south to get closer to our region, and this will give some unsettled weather to the region over the next few days. While this is a slightly slower evolution than I’d originally forecast, the basic idea is the same. The greatest impact from rainfall will be over southeastern MA and southern RI, with most areas northwest of a general line down I-95 / I-90 / I-86 staying rain-free much of this time. The maximum impact of the low pressure area’s rain shield should occur between tonight and Friday afternoon in general, but there will be impulses of “less” and “more” during the next few days, with a distinctive trend of the system being pushed back to the south by re-strengthening high pressure by early in the weekend. Region-wide dry weather returns during Saturday and continues Sunday as well as Monday. We also see a cooler regime set-up with a broad scale northeasterly air flow in general for much of this period. The autumnal equinox occurs at 8:43 a.m. EDT on Sunday – the beginning of fall – though some trees this year are already ahead of the game, letting their leaves change as a result of some cooler nights earlier this month, and some as a result of an ongoing dry spell. Boston is now sitting at its 4th-longest recorded stretch of days without measurable rain. That streak may come to an end in the next 48 hours, but we will see how much rain makes it in there.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Periodic rain is most likely east and south of a line along I-95 from southeastern NH to I-90 to I-86 (eastern and southeastern areas). Highs 66-73. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast.

TONIGHT through FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic rain favoring far eastern and southeastern areas (east & southeast of a line from I-95 to I-90 to I-86). Areas of fog at times. Lows 51-58. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts favoring coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Lots of cloud – partial sun more possible to the north and west. Lingering rain possible near the South Coast and Cape Cod until midday. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Another trough / low pressure area brings a wet weather chance around September 25-26, based on current mid level projections of features. Dry, cooler weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Overall pattern looks dry here with some moderation briefly then another shot of cooler weather.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Blocking continues, but shifts a little to allow low pressure to the south to press northward the next few days. This throws a cloud shield into our region, still initially battling dry air but finally to win out over it tonight. The now shorter-term question to answer is the northern extent of the rain shield and the amount of rain that falls. While some shorter range guidance has trended a little wetter, but not consistently run-to-run, I am still reluctant to jump on that bandwagon and go for a more solid rain event, other than perhaps the South Coast region. The radar may look impressive for a while as the shield works its way into the I-90 belt and even a bit north, but this will still be up against a rebuilding dry high pressure area in eastern Canada, and a squeeze-play will be on. The dry air can significantly cut back on how much rain survives / makes it to the ground in the northern portion of the precipitation shield. We see this in winter events too when trying to forecast snowfall amounts in a similar synoptic set-up. So other than prolonging the impact of this low through Thursday, and into part of Friday, my forecast isn’t changing drastically regarding its impact. Another aspect of this situation will be a gusty northeasterly wind combined with astronomically high tides, which will lead to several high tide cycles of splash-over and some minor inundation in prone locations. Be aware of this if you live in or are traveling to coastal areas the next few days. As we get into the weekend, the dry air wins out again, and while we still may see a fair amount of clouds Saturday, the sun will become more dominant with time Saturday through Sunday, and it will be rain-free, but breezy at first, and quite a bit cooler than we’ve been in recent days. Autumn arrives with the equinox at 8:43 a.m. EDT on Sunday.

TODAY: Areas of fog until mid morning. Limited sun – clouds eventually thicken from south to north later. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain South Coast. Areas of fog. Lows 56-63. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain is most likely from the I-90 belt southward. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periodic rain, again greatest chance from the I-90 belt southward. Lows 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain potential continues especially morning and mostly south of I-90. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Dry, cool start then moderation. Watch for another push of low pressure from the south and west with a potential rain threat around the middle of next week before drier weather returns.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Overall pattern still looks dry with high pressure in control most of the time. A cooler push earlier in the period, then some moderation again.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

A quick “K” spike last night, the measure of disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic field, a result of the most recent solar storm, resulting in a relatively short-lived but somewhat decent display of the aurora, or northern lights, mainly during the 11 p.m. hour. Limiting factors in the ability to see this were the bright nearly-full moon, a thin veil of high altitude wildfire smoke, and in southern areas, some high cloudiness. However there were some observations of it and some images captured (I observed the upper reddish portion of the “curtain” faintly before 11:30 p.m. while the greenish lower portion was too close to the horizon and washed out by light pollution in my location – but seen in some areas). While not expected tonight, if a surprise instance did occur, it’d be less likely to be seen with additional high clouds and a full moon shining. In other weather news, our warm spell is on its last legs, but will still be with us today, and still fairly mild to warm for some inland areas tomorrow, so it’s not quite over yet. But we’re going to see a change coming up and the feel of fall coming back before fall arrives. How does that all unfold during these final 5 days of summer? High pressure sits atop us today while to the south low pressure that has brought wind and rain to parts of the Southeast and southern Mid Atlantic spreads its high cloud shield northward. You’ll notice the sun filtered to dimmed at times today by those clouds, as well as some lingering high altitude wildfire smoke, but we’ll still see a fair amount of sun nonetheless. Away from a slightly cooling ocean breeze, many locations will crack 80 for high temps. As low pressure, while weaker, edges closer to our region from the south Wednesday and Thursday, in response to some give in the high pressure area, we’ll have heavier cloud cover, and the evolution of a steadier regional onshore flow, with a cooling trend. The ongoing question: How much rain gets into southern New England from the south? Some will, but just as this push of rain takes place, a reinforced high pressure area in eastern Canada will start pushing things in the other direction, and dry air will be eating away at the northern side of the moisture from the south. As it stands, the South Coast, up to about the I-90 belt, has the best chance of measurable rainfall between Wednesday night and Friday morning, before the system is pushed back to the south. This will return us to dry weather and some clearing, though clouds may hang around much of Friday before we have more of a sun/cloud mix Saturday. One thing’s for sure, it will be noticeably cooler by the end of this week. Additionally, Boston is in the midst of a long spell with no measurable rain. This is the 28th straight day of that, and the 5th longest stretch on record. The 4th longest is 29 days from 1930. Boston should tie that. Will they break it? Since measurable rain is no guarantee there, it’s very possible. I’ll talk about the rest of the list in the comments section and in future updates if the streak continues beyond this midweek rain threat.

TODAY: Sunshine often filtered to dimmed by high clouds and high altitude smoke. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Full Harvest Moon veiled by high clouds and lingering high altitude smoke, then may fade behind thicker clouds later at night. Patchy ground fog forming mainly interior lower elevations – valleys, swamps, bogs. Lows 54-61. Wind calm to SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Potential rain South Coast by late-day. Highs 74-81. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Potential rain, greatest chance South Coast. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic rain is most likely from the I-90 belt southward. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds linger. Rain chance may hang on South Coast. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds dominate / intervals of sun. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Dry weather, starting cool then moderating from the end of the weekend into early next week. Will have to watch for another push of low pressure from the south and west toward the middle of the week with a rain threat.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Overall pattern still looks dry with high pressure in control most of the time. A cooler push earlier in the period, then some moderation again.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

High pressure continues its influence on our weather with fair and warm conditions early this week, but you’ll notice some increasing high cloudiness from the south later today and especially Tuesday. This is fanning off low pressure that is organizing off the US Southeast Coast and moving onshore into the Carolinas. By Wednesday, we lose our high pressure area but because of the blocking still in place in the atmosphere, the low to the south isn’t going to come up the coast that much. It just drifts up in this direction for a while – enough to thicken the clouds and spread some of its rain into at least the South Coast region by late Wednesday. How far north this comes is still in question, but the region overall stands the greatest chance of seeing wet weather from this system Wednesday night and Thursday. By Friday, we’ll already see high pressure from the north regaining control and starting to push this system back out to the south. During mid to late week we’ll have transitioned from our current warmth to a cooler regime…

TODAY: Sun – filtered by the arrival of high clouds from south to north later. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: High cloudiness spreads across the sky. Patchy ground fog interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun – dimmed by the thickening of high clouds south to north. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Potential rain South Coast by late-day. Highs 74-81. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Potential rain, greatest chance South Coast. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic rain is most likely from the I-90 belt southward. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds linger. Rain chance may hang on South Coast. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloud / sun mix. Highs 63-70. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Canadian high pressure is expected to be strong enough to provide dry but cooler weather for the September 21-22 weekend. We welcome autumn with the equinox at 8:43 a.m. on September 22. Pattern looks dry and milder early next week, but another surge of wet weather may make a run at the region from the southward around the middle of next week – something to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Indications are for high pressure domination – mainly fair weather, a cool push then a moderating trend.