Flaky Future

192 Comments

9:58PM

Perhaps the headline is a little dramatic, but yes most of the Boston area will see the first snowflakes of the season Thursday evening.

Summarizing and looking ahead, low pressure wave #1 went by today with periods of light rain. Low pressure wave #2 will move in Thursday with rain, and as cold air drains in from the north we’ll see the rain change to snow in the evening, especially north and west of Boston, but eventually the city will see some flakes. Accumulations will be minor and confined to unpaved surfaces, with any snow melting not long after it ends during the night.

During Thursday afternoon, east-facing and north-facing coastal areas may see some minor flooding at high tide, due to a gusty east wind and tides that are astronomically high.

Areas that have not seen their first freeze should see one on Friday morning if the sky clears quickly enough. Many areas will go below freezing again Saturday morning since the sky should be clear all night. Any snow that falls Thursday night will melt by morning and I don’t expect any icy spots despite the chill, because the ground is too warm still.

Low pressure wave #3, which many expect to hit the region Saturday and Saturday night with rain and snow (some calling for possible significant snow), is actually likely to be mostly a miss, staying south, with just some cloudiness spreading over most of the region during the day and into the night, with any precipitation probably on the light side and occurring south of the Mass Pike.

Once all of this is done, expect a dry & chilly Sunday and some clouds and cool weather for Halloween.

Onward! To the details of the forecast…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns west to east after 2AM. Low 35-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Rain mixing with snow in the 495 belt north of the Mass Pike by late afternoon. High 40-45. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy through midnight with mixed rain/snow changing to snow from northwest to southeast, but may remain mixed in areas south of Boston. Snow accumulation up to around 1 inch on unpaved surfaces especially north and west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Low 26-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: North of Mass Pike – filtered sun fades away. South of Mass Pike – thickening clouds, slight chance of rain or snow in the afternoon into the night before ending. Low 29. High 47.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 50.

MONDAY – HALLOWEEN: Variably cloudy. Low 38. High 53.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 54.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 41. High 58.

192 thoughts on “Flaky Future”

  1. TK, as always thanks for update. Pete B tonight gave Worcester area 1-2″; Boston metro a coating to 1″; and southern NH 2-3″.

  3. Thanks TK !! 18F on Mt Washington this morning, certainly cold air above to help the cooling process out later today.

    Logan was 5F above normal for the day on 10/25 and maintains a +6.1F departure from normal for October. It will be interesting to see what the last 6 days of the month do to drop that departure. Will it end up being +4…..or even drop to as much as +2 for the month. A few of these days may now have a -15F temperature departure.

    Have a good day all.

  4. Good morning and Thanks TK – rainy here in framingham this morning.

    Did anyone see Mark Rosenthal on the news. He and his wife were lost in Honey Pot Orchard and had to call 911 when it got dark. Other than blaming his wife, he was really quite funny about the whole thing. It’s a big place if you get out into the back areas and I wouldn’t want to be there when it’s pitch dark!!

    1. It’s too bad that Mark isn’t working anymore…I would put him right up there with Barry and Harvey. He started out under Bob Copeland on Ch. 5 back in the mid/late 1970’s.

      1. I always liked him – did he choose to stop working I was laughing as he explained being lost -not at him but because he was really quite charming about the whole thing

        1. No, Ch. 5 let him go suddenly back in 2003 IIRC and hasn’t been seen since. Not too long ago I used to hear him on radio commercials occasionally. He also had a website for a time.

    2. Saw it. Fell off my chair laughing. I had an unpleasant experience on the phone with Mark in 1985 when I was a ch 5 weather watcher. Disliked him since.

  5. Personally I’m not expecting much more than a mix of snow and rain with no accumulation, thanks tk for no hype bc when we wake up in 20hrs it will be sunny and no proof that it even snowed, this has dud or rainstorm written all over it unless a few flakes gets ya excited, have a great day everyone, don’t forget to grab ur umbrella

  6. Rain started here in Sudbury around 5 a.m. or so, according to my husband. Light to moderate rain here now.

    Does anyone know what the driving conditions might be like in the metrowest area this evening between 7 and 10 p.m.? I am not referring to road conditions, as I expect any snow to be only on grassy surfaces – I am questioning visibility. The wind will be up somewhat. I know there is no definitive answers but can I get an estimate? Thanks.

  8. Some models r even trending warmer this morning, Pete Bouchard has trimmed back his accumulations to well north and west, for most of us it’s just some flakes

  9. I still think most of eastern mass will see their first snow flakes tonight, expect for cape and southern bristol and plymouth counties. The is exciting to me because it is a mild stone with the transition of the seasons. The gfs ans nam still have precip in eastern mass for saturday afternoon/night. The 540 line is south of the region so that will be another interesting situation to follow after this one.

    I look forward to the freezing temps tomorrow morning. Good bye mosquito’s!

    1. Coastal,

      Are you looking for local scoop? If so and you’re not aware, Weather Underground is great–you’ll likely find several local weather reporting stations with all of that great data. For instance, I’ve been watching wind direction and temps this morning from a station nearby my home. Temps here are 39.8 down from 40.2 about an hour ago.

      I suppose you could bounce around all different zip’s if you want to scale out the meterology.

      http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=01520

  11. Looking over the 06Z NAM and GFS, it sure looks like the immediate Boston
    Area “should” pick up a couple of inches of snow. Call me crazy, but that is how
    I see it.

    Also, The 06Z GFS has us getting a decent glancing blow from the Sat storm while
    the NAM has it as just a brush by.

    Interesting to see the 12Z runs.
    I worry about these on again, off again systems!

  12. btw, the oZ Euro brought Saturday’s storm closer much like the 06GFS.

    Something is up with this thing and it needs to be watched!

  13. NWS is against snow in Boston area and only calling for it N&W and especially higher
    elevations. Hmm….

  14. From Harvey on Twitter about Saturday.
    HarveyWCVB Harvey Leonard
    Another storm Sat. aft’n & night…mix to snow. Snow accum. possible. Strongest winds Cape…coastal concerns #wcvb
    7 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply

  17. From the NWS:

    OUR BEST THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
    BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
    EVENING…MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS OVER 1000 FEET. EVEN THOUGH THE
    GROUND IS WARM…WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST THAT WHEN SNOW COMES DOWN
    MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME IT CAN COAT THE ROADWAYS.
    THEREFORE…WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
    THESE CONCERNS. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS…RAIN SHOULD STILL
    PROBABLY CHANGE TO SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM A
    DUSTING TO AN INCH.

    THE RAIN MAY CHANGE BRIEFLY TO WET SNOW EVEN IN THE BOSTON TO
    PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM THIS EVENING…BEFORE IT
    ENDS. IF THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
    EXPECTED…THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE GROUND COULD BE
    BRIEFLY WHITENED OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE DOWNTOWN/S.

  18. Looking at the 12Z NAM, I still see a changeover in Boston. Somewhere around or about 7PM, perhaps even a bit sooner than that. I see WHITE ground in our future.

  19. btw,

    12ZNAM has a near miss with only a bit of a brush by for Saturday’s storm.
    Close, but no cigar. We’ll see what the GFS has to say and then the 12Z Euro and Canadian.

    1. Scott,

      Are you suggesting that the NAM is showing a Westward trend and “may” be coming on board? We shall see.

      1. I was noticing a bit more of a negative tilt during the 12z run of the NAM, could be a trend…
        The rest of the 12z runs will sure be interesting.

        1. Scott,

          Agree. Let’s see what the rest of the 12Z runs reveal.

          On a similar subject, what are your thoughts on possible
          SNOW this evening? Curious.

    1. Retrac,

      Is that man off his rocker? OR is he onto something?

      I want to see “some” models progging this before I start to hyperventilate.

      LOL

  23. BarryWBZ Barry Burbank
    A coating up to 2″ mainly on grass, trees and cartops much of the area down to the Mass Pike this evening. Flakes in air south of that. #wbz

    1. Yes,

      There are actually 2 waves…the first is now passing, switching the winds
      from NE to N or NNW, bringing in COLDER air. Once the colder air moves
      in aloft, it should start to transition to snow. It is just a question of how fast
      that transition is.

      1. It might be quicker than people think. A lot of places dropped 5 degrees in less than 5 minutes it seemed.

    2. That is INSANE for October. I personally, have NEVER seen anything like
      it in the Boston area this time of year. Berkshires, yes. Coastal Plain. NO WAY!

      This would be historical!

      I for one, HOPE he is wrong! We have plans for Satuday evening.

      1. I would be seriously worried about that much snow accumulating on trees that still hold most of their leaves

  28. let’s see what next GFS has to say..

    Anything over a few inches on Sat. could be trouble for some of us in the woods

  29. I agree Hadi….

    that map just doesn’t seem possible….ground too warm for that kind of business. Imagine how much qpf there would need to be to fetch those kinds of numbers

  31. wow…look at hr57 on new gfs….

    look at the precip just offshore.

    see what next hr. brings….tick….tick….tick

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20111027%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_054_1000_500_thick.gif&fcast=054&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&cycle=10%2F27%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=87&nextImage=yes

    1. Retrac,

      Way too close! I wonder what the 12Z Euro and Canadian will show????
      Even with what it is showing, it would be bad enough.

      Looks to be a fair amount of “wrap around” Snow with this one.

      If it tracks a bit farther west. OUCH!

      Stay tuned.

  37. Ugh the NCEP site is been slow for me all day today…so I haven’t been able to look at the 12z GFS.
    I’m thinking anywhere outside the city will receive a coating-2″ tonight. 2″ for those above 1000 feet.

  41. Here is the HPC thought’s on model analysis for the weekend storm

    THE 12Z NAM REMAINS FLATTER AND MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE GFS/GEFS
    AND ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE UKMET HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
    STRONG WITH THE CYCLONE…AND CORRELATES WELL WITH THE ECMWF AND
    GEFS MEAN. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THIS CLUSTER
    OF SOLUTIONS AS WELL…RAISING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE CONSIDERABLY
    FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH GOOD DYNAMIC SUPPORT. BASED ON
    THE TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE…AND THE REMARKABLY ROBUST CLUSTER
    INCLUDING THE ECMWF…UKMET…GEFS…AND NOW GFS OUR PREFERENCE
    REMAINS FOR A SOLUTION WITH DETAILS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF.

        1. I would say a trend is in the work, hope to see the NAM trend more significantly in it’s future runs.

    1. If SNOW is what you want, then we want it to move out like it is progged
      and then turn N and NNW to keep winds N and NW and dump much wrap
      around moisture in the form of snow.

  45. I feel that the close range of temperatures will make the rain/snow line collapse a lot faster than many expect it to this afternoon. Its 37 in Ringe, NH and 42 in Newton, Ma.

  46. Just started to sleet a bit here in Framingham… travelling between sites and I was getting pelted with frozen balls… The car thermometer still had it around 42…

    2. Yes,
      But that tells me that the colder air aloft is lagging behind the colder air
      moving in at lower levels. However, the sleet certainly will help COOL the
      lower levels such that when it does cool aloft, it will go INSTANTLY to SNOW!

    3. Not sleeting in framingham north but dropped to 40 here and some of the rain drops when I was just out felt as if they had the potential to be a bit “fuller” than just water.

  47. Looking out the window now, seems to have moved off, but it was definitely hitting me in the head before and bouncing off my windshield!

    I’m just off route 9, in the Crossing Blvd / Staples Drive section…

    1. you are further west than I am which could account for that – I was at Rt 9 and Edgell road when I thought the rain felt a bit odd and wanted to be more than rain

  48. Hi everyone…. Busy today so this is my first time checking in. Snow Index only at 1 for tonight. The Saturday is one to keep an eye on and keep this in mind with the leaves still on the trees you add wet snow to that there could be some power issues. After Irene I don’t want to lose power for a long time.

  49. If anyone gets any snow tonight and can get and post a picture, that would be great. We live in the eastern part of Marshfield and even a northwest wind has trajectory off of the ocean. I’d be shocked to see snow here. 🙂

  50. ToddWBZ Todd Gutner
    trusty @BarryWBZ just called in snowflakes are mixing in on Storrow Drive in Boston now…heavier precip burst bringin down cold. #WBZ

  51. 12z ECWMF puts down 1.5 qpf at BOS 2pm Saturday to 8am Sunday. Surface temps remain above freezing throughout, but 850 is cold. ORH little less than 1.0, same thing with temps. It has potential, but all potential has to be tempered by time of year, warm ground and above freezing surface temps.

  58. It’s trying really hard to change – some of the rain looks awfully slushy

    Down to 39 where I am

    And even if we don’t get snow – it’s just exciting to know it’s almost that time when we can look for big storms

  59. 18Z NAM coming out. OH BOY!!!

    It is out to 48 hours, but so far looks to NAIL US!!!!!!!

    Watching for completion.

  62. TK,

    What are your thoughts on Saturday’s Event?

    On you on board? If so, what are your thoughts on precipitation type and areas
    for such?

    Many thanks

    1. Given the behavior of the NAM last winter, the accuracy of the Euro (many times, not all), and the current GFS trend, how can I not hop on board? I have one foot on, the other one still in the air, only because this is an 18z NAM run. I decide for sure upon seeing the 00z run. Typical TK, not jumping on the ship too fast. I’m so anti-BaileyMan. 😉

  64. o.s.

    had to go on a call and ben missing some of the action.

    looks like things are starting to come together huh.

    snow starting to mix in right now in holden.

  65. Nice on the 60hr NAM. I think what is happening today can say a lot for Saturday. With a north to northeast wind, its 46F to 50F from Marshfield south and east and near or under 40F to the northwest of that currently. I’d think the surface winds would be similar and I’m guessing its cold above us today, like it would be Saturday.

  66. 18Z NAM total qpf for Satuday’s storm at 1.5-1.75 inches. How much of that will be
    SNOW? That is the question. (assuming it verifies)

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F27%2F2011+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=069&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. Even if it is slush! Lol

      If the ratio were 5 to 1, it would be 7-9 inches of cement, IF ALL SNOW,
      That is the key. If the beginning 1/3-1/2 of storm is mostly rain or a mix,
      then would lose 1/3-1/2 of accumulation. Then we’d be looking at something
      like 4-7 inches of cement.

      Put that on trees with canopies and that SPELLS BIG TROUBLE!!

      Seriously, we don’t want to see this materialize, no matter how much we like snow. I’d just as soon see a miss or a rain event.

  68. I’m at about 1000 ft. in worcester hills. Figure what, 5:1 or 8:1 snow ratios plus melting from bottom up during storm.

    Scott’s probably close at 6″ or so.

    I’m still having trouble believing the coastal plain will eek out a big snowstorm.

    My lawn is still growing for crying out loud–i need to mow it on Sunday!

    1. Not so sure there would be as much melting from bottom up.
      It is going to be pretty chilly until the event. Ahh… 4 inches, 6 inches, 8 inches. Not going to matter much, it will be a mess no matter.

      PRAY FOR RAIN!

    1. Scott,

      Do you have a link. I can use a chuckle, well perhaps it “might” just be a does of reality! LOL

      thanks

    1. I agree o.s.

      looks like they’ll be a nice band sweeping through. already snowing lightly here so that ought to pretty it up some.

  71. How about that Euro though…

    Didn’t it spank the GFS all last winter too.

    NAM might be over-doing qpf but the map is good enough for me.

  73. TK. I just want to say an extra thank you. Being a participant in this blog will be so exciting thisnwinter and will make each event even more exciting – if that’s possible. My family just theatened to toss me outside if don’t stop dancing around the house. I’m glad I can come here and share my excitement with other snow lovers —- so are they 🙂

  74. If everything comes together I am thinking a 2 for the snow index for Saturday for the interior and especially areas up in elevation. Tonight snow index is a 1 since any accumulations will be MINOR.
    I did not think I would be bringing oout the snow index this early.

      1. I have a feeling your right TK. This will be a little tease but I hope it is an omen for the winter.

  75. 18z GFS lookin’ good…..let’s just keep her steady now.

    18z NAM is just nuts with the qpf values at about 1.5″ worth in the snow.

  76. hey TK, we get to watch that Bruins-Montreal game while waiting for the 00z runs….how sweet is that!

  80. If these trends hold I am going to making sure to have the flashlights and candles ready like I did for Irene. With a heavy wet snow and leaves on those trees that is not a good combination. I am not getting excited about it because things can change but now that were in the 48 hour window it has my attention.

  81. Thank goodness our snowfall predictions are for Logan and not say, Worcester. If so, I could be to 25% of my season total by sunrise Sunday morning.

    Anyone seeing any accumulation ? Looks like a steady punch of precip in the Rt 2 area extending west to Albany. Oh yes, its way down to 43F here 🙂

  82. TWC using NECN report from Stoddard, NH. Quite the wintery scene, snowing steadily and the ground is covered.

  83. First snowflakes in Sudbury of the season! 🙂 Snow mixing with rain now.

    Just saw TWC and Jim Cantore now all excited about “big storm” in northeast on Sat.

    I am excited about the snow – but I think it’s kind of early for a lot of snow the way it’s being predicted for Sat. But it is supposed to get milder by the end of nxt. wk. Crazy weather!

      1. Yes, he did. I think he said there would be a white halloween in many places.

        My opinion – I can’t see more than 4 or 5 inches of snow (not counting what we may get tonight) on Sat. but what I fear and what others here have mentioned is if the snow is heavy enough it could cause power outages. And the strong winds and the very high tides.

        What I feel bad about w/the snow tonight is that it is dark out – wish we could have seen the first snow during the daytime.

        1. true about the first snow at night, although as a kid, I always stared at a particular street light to watch for snow.

          By the seawall in Marshfield, you could see the seaweed on the road from high tide. I know there’s no storm tomorrow, but the ocean is being riled up tonight, so, I wonder what tomorrow’s tide is going to be like. Its one of, if not the highest of the year. I guess the heart of the weekend storm would hit mostly during lowtide late Saturday, so hopefully that would help.

  86. TK or anyone else…..is this weekend storm coming closer a sign of the La Nina pattern featuring a strong southeast ridge being a big player and pushing coastal systems closer to the coast ?

  87. Tk- first thank’s again for this site. Some day we will meet in person and I will shake your hand. I know It’s early but I am heading to the cape on Saturday till Monday. A small break as I will be off till Thursday. Is there any chance that the snow will stick in boston on Saturday, like enough to plow. I am just hoping this will not be a call in storm on Saturday. Thank’s TK. Go Bruins.

      1. I hope your right. After Saturday it can snow all it wants, we really need this weekend to escape life. We will meet. Enjoy the game.

    1. Nice !! Enjoy the snow Vicki. The ocean waves were ramping up late this afternoon, but it was low tide. It must have been a big midday tide because parts of Rte 139 has seaweed on it.

    2. OH- I can picture you now swinging from light to light in your glory LOL. cold rain here. 3am start time tomorrow than off till Thursday. Now that you see the snow today please keep it away on Saturday. Heading to cape codder and I do not need a snow storm to ruin it. After Saturday it can snow anytime.

      1. Sorry that I assumed it might be snowing in Newton – maybe it isn’t. I just am kind of excited about the snow . . .

  90. TK – glad to hear we won’t have that much snow on Sat.

    And I would love to meet everyone here, too! 🙂

    1. How about the second one. Great another bruins fan. sports talk here is welcome. bruins need to win tonight and than on saturday in canada. saturday night hockey in canada, and its against there favorite team.

  94. Cloud to ground lightning strike just west of Boston at 8:55PM. Deep thunder audible here in Woburn. Saw the flash from here, but not the bolt, as we have moderate snow with 0.3 inch on the ground.

    1. We had it on Dec 9 1978 on our wedding night. We were ay the Hyatt in Cambridge overlooking the Charles. My poor husband should have run for the hiils then. 🙂

  97. Hello all!
    Kev from Dedham here – glad I found you all here!! I really enjoyed following you all on the WBZ blog in winters past but found the drivel made me stop going there – glad to find real weather lovers here and no trolls/nastiness.
    Looking forward to hearing what you all have to say. Just checked out Matt Noyes’ technical forecast for Saturday, pretty interesting analysis. Looking forward to hearing what everyone thinks will unfold on Saturday.
    Here’s the link if anyone’s interested:
    http://blip.tv/matt-noyes/video-technical-forecast-discussion-livestreamed-6-40-p-m-thursday-october-27-2011-5683318

    1. It was one of the most intense bomb outs I have ever seen. The intensity of the snow was insane, especially during the thunderstorm portion.

  101. 1. TK, how about a new updated blog? 🙂

    2. I was at work in Chestnut Hill this evening and saw flashes of lightning during the rain and also when it changed to snow.

    3. I saw your post waaaaay above regarding your experience with Mark Rosenthal. I am quite surprised, he always seemed to have a good sense of humor with the newscasters and viewers from what I could tell. I am now curious…can your give more details as to what exactly happened? Could he just have been in a bad mood or things were really busy in the wx office at the very moment you called?

    I am not excusing what happened since I never met him. One thing for sure…he’ll never live that apple orchard “experience” down, LOL. 🙂

  102. It is official…Boston received a “trace” of snow yesterday which tied the record on same date in 1957.

    1957-58 = 44.7″

  103. 6z NAM looks awesome. Still concerned about warm b.l. for the plain. any sniff of an easterly wind is going to be a problem.

    didn’t compare to last night’s runs but is arrival slower?

  105. Retrac I agree. NWS brought up the facts that temps up to 2000 feet will be too warm on the costal plain.

  106. that precip. is really intense on the NAM Hadi and it’s late at night/early morning which is why I mentioned the arrival. Just how much can the precip overcome warmer air is huge to get significant snow 95 to 495 as usual right. If the NAM comes in like that, I’ll lose power out here in the hills which I’m not prepared for since my generator broke before Irene.

    Looking forward to look at NCEP thermals as soon as they’re posted.

  107. I hear ya retrac! Hoping for the best for everyone.
    Also keep in mind the euro is still colder at all levels vs. GFS and Nam.

  108. Wow, winter storm watches. Irene, weekend washouts, and now this to cancel camping trips this year. I give up. 🙂

    Wonder if there are icy areas this morning with the temps down near freezing ?

    Happy Friday all !

  109. NCEP just posted and is just cold enough. The Euro colder too huh? Wow. TK…..JMA…..anyone else……..any analogue on this?

  111. If this were to all come together this would be the biggest snow event in October in my life. I have seen flakes and coatings to an inch of snow in October but nothing of what is being projected. Winter Storm Watches up for a good part of SNE and its October. I have never seen that before.
    Power issues is a concern with this wet snow and leaves that are still on the trees. The winds could gust to which will not be good either.
    Snow Index a 2 for the interior since I think those areas could exceed 4 inches. A 1 for areas on or near the coast since I think if any snow accumulates there it would be under 4 inches.

  113. If you go by the NAM, then the Boston area would receive more snow, If you go by the GFS, then the Boston area would get a few flakes on the back end…
    Reliability this far out points to the NAM, as it usually nails anything inside of 48 hours.
    It’ll be interesting to see what happens.

  115. 1979 is the closest analog. Over 6 confined to very high elevations (over 1000 feet). 6 max in the hills dropping down to 1 inch around Logan. New blog is up.

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