Sunday June 7 2020 Forecast

57 Comments

8:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

Well, we had our showers and thunderstorms around yesterday, as expected. What was definitely a surprise to me was the potency of some of the early nighttime storms, which I expected to appear as just isolated showers. Apparently the atmosphere had other ideas, and while these were not potent storms for everyone, the areas that got them surely knew it. My second chase of the day ended up being the better of the 2, and yieleded me 2 pictures that I will post in the comments. And now onto the weather forecast! No big changes today. Still expecting lots of clouds to dominate and some pop up showers with cold air aloft and the help of a little convergence between a northeasterly wind near the coast and a more north to northwest wind inland. Some media have termed today’s activity just sprinkles, but there is actually the chance that a few of these could build enough to release brief downpours, and even some small hail, so don’t be surprised if that occurs somewhere. One thing you’ll really notice today is it being much cooler and less humid than the 2 days preceding it. Refreshing, almost a little chilly. High pressure pushes further south to make Monday a much sunnier, dry and pleasant day. By Tuesday, it’s weakening and slipping offshore and the moderation begins, both surface, and aloft, and in a couple of stages brings the temperature back up toward midweek, but you won’t really feel a humidity increase until Wednesday and especially Thursday. By that time, a cold front will be approaching from the west and may increase the shower risk on Thursday, but that initial push of that front may run out of steam.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, mainly afternoon favoring the I-95 belt. A few showers may be briefly heavy and possibly contain small hail. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a shower. More humid. Highs 76-83. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

Higher humidity and a few potential rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms as a frontal system approaches and passes through during June 12-13. Remnant moisture from Cristobal goes into Canada. Drier weather June 14. Clouds and a shower threat may return later in the period but unsure how that evolves at this time. Some guidance has hinted at blocking trying to set-up with low pressure developing nearby. I think this is over-done and that we’ll still see progression and probably a weak low passing by late in the period, but this is the day 9-10 period so very low confidence this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

A slower evolution and weaker set-up for the blocking I mentioned, high pressure in eastern Canada being dominant, low pressure south being weaker. This is probably a dry pattern without any significant heat. Confidence is quite low here so much adjustment to this time period may be coming.

57 thoughts on “Sunday June 7 2020 Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    I was confused at how to post a comment. I got to comments by clicking on the title of today’s posts. That was different.

    Anyhow, I agree, this is 2nd or 3rd best.

    1. Thanks TK. I was confused as well Tom on posting. I’d put this in second as well. Having a picture at the top is nice.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I was disappointed in the storms that passed through my area.
    As per usual, no big deal in the city. The afternoon event yielded
    a whopping 0.08 inch of rain and last evenings pooforama, dropped
    a resounding 0.01 inch. Big woof.

    The evening event had much more lightning, most of which disappeared as it approached overhead.

    I know that some areas go hit hard. Simply not the case here as usually happens. It is just rare to get a truly severe thunderstorm
    in the city. Sure it happens, but clearly not very often and almost
    every time the city is warned for a severe storm, it is not even
    close to severe. Just the way it is.

    Now for the blog format.
    I agree with most above. This one is #2 on my list, with Thursday’s being #1. I like the navigation on this one and as others stated, the photo on top is a nice touch.
    Imho, the only thing lacking on this format is some color to jazz it up a bit.

  4. Thanks so much, TK!

    Good morning, everyone…

    Nice .71″ in the gauge this morning.

    Just put up my last set of assignments for the school year. We (students and staff) are totally burnt out at this point. The town of Middleborough put on a wonderful graduation parade yesterday. The route went by all of the schools in towns and the staffs of all the schools were on hand to cheer on the kids. Pretty classy! In addition to being a teacher at Middleborough High, I have been a Sachem dad to my three sons who all went through Middleborough Public Schools. I had the honor of driving my son in yesterday’s parade. The actual graduation ceremony will now be August 1 and I will have the honor of presenting my son, David (our youngest) , his diploma.

    I like today’s and Thursday’s formats the best. Will there be playoffs? Brackets? A play-in game? 🙂

    Blessings, and Happy Sunday, y’all!

    1. How very special, Captain. Happy tears are flowing here.

      I can’t imagine all you and Tom and all teachers have had in extra work. Or parents who are now working and teaching their children.

      I have no idea what the fall will bring. I do believe it will be far different from what we have all known for so long. I know superintendents our here have all sent letters to parents. The principal in Uxbridge who was named best in MA recently……and I can say sure deserves the honor…..sent out a wonderful letter also…as I suspect other principals have.

      Have a blessed Sunday.

      1. I have listened to different school committee meetings from the area in the last couple of weeks about next fall. I cannot think about, imagine or process that right now. Our district is preparing cuts at 2%, 5% and 10%. RIF (reduction-in-force) letters have to be sent out by next Monday, June 15. I have heard a lot of rumors which I won’t get into here.

        All I will say it will be very different and heartbreaking.

        1. My office is looking at reductions for next fiscal year, starting
          July 1, 2020. My position being part time, I fear it may be on the chopping block. We shall see.

        4. Oh no, Captain. If anything, I’d think more teachers are needed. That makes no sense to me. But then a lot of this doesn’t.

          JPD, I hope your position is not eliminated. I know the impact of that very well.

          Prayers for you both

          1. Thanks to everyone for your concern. I am the most senior member in my department, so my job is secure. I am upset at the young staff who may be let go. There are a lot of very passionate, very smart young people going into teaching.

            Because of all of the uncertainties with local, state and federal budgets going forward, nobody knows. The local budgets rely on the state’s and the state’s, the federal budget. We will not have a state budget on July 1 when the new fiscal year starts.

            1. My oldest who is a school committee member just explained all of this to me. I just do not know what to say or think. But it sure looks as if school will return in some form in fall based on this. And I’m betting it will close again shortly thereafter.

              https://imgur.com/a/Y3B5ztU

    2. Hahaha! A play-in game. 🙂

      It’s going to come down to today’s and Thursday’s. I don’t think anybody will like #8. But who knows…

  5. Thank you, TK.

    I will agree with others and you. This is #2.

    I learned a bit more yesterday during the storms about the value of navigation.

    When we have a system that is clearly going to create problems in this area, my habit is to carefully watch new comments here. Several times there have been comments by OS and I think others that they see rotation. This was before the NWS posted the tornado warning. Trying to find new comments yesterday meant scrolling through all 100+ comments. And it was not easy.

    Also, the one time we had a tornado warning, We did not have a TV in the basement. OS and others kept us informed of what was happening and how close it was.

    All of this is to say that while I originally thought of navigation as a convenience, it occurred to me yesterday it is also a safety feature.

    But this is only my opinion. I definitely like Thursday better but this is not far behind and the problem I had similar to Toms would probably be one I’d get used to. I’ll go so far as to say I also like Thursday’s better than the original. Maybe because it is just fun to have something new 🙂

    1. I’m not sure what’s up with the bold on people’s names though. On my laptop, “Vicki” looks like it’s spelled “Vlckl”. Try pronouncing it THAT way! 😛

  6. Cristobal …..

    2 interesting features ….

    So, tropical systems are warm core, in other words, you’ll find the warmest temps in the storm in the circulation center or eye, when its a hurricane. The recon plane on its passes through the center this morning have found the coolest temps in the center with the circulation. It really is more of a cool core system.

    Southeast of the center, well southeast, the plane is measuring some of the strongest flight level winds I have seen in Cristobal since they started taking data on it a few days ago. Large area of 55 to 60 knot flight level winds.

    So, it will be interesting to see what the NHC does at its 11am advisory for intensity.

  7. Thanks TK. I have to say, this is actually my favorite so far. A little plain (though I like the picture at the top), but well organized and easy to read.

    1. I do like this one best for organization, and Thursday’s for overall layout.

  8. The 8-14 day CPC outlook has below normal temps for the entire eastern two thirds of the nation.

    While I still like Thursday’s format the best, this one does appear with no hyphens, so certainly in the running.

  9. On the east side of this circulation in Florida, the winds are southerly and it has tapped the truly, overwhelming humidity of the tropics. From around Tampa southward, the dewpoints are running 78F to 80F nearly everywhere. Nasty.

  10. I’m not a huge fan of the lack of indentations on replies though….

    This gives Thursday’s a stronger edge now for me.

  11. As TK mentioned, the lowercase ‘i’ in the bold names looks like an ‘l’. In addition to Vlckl, we have Phlllp, Captaln Fantastlc, and Woods Hlll Weather. There sure are a lot of new people posting!

  12. Yes now I’m seeing indentations too, when I didn’t see them earlier. So that’s clearly bizarre.

    As far as combining two layouts: Unless I can hack into the programming and combine them, which 1) I’m not a hacker and 2) I’m not a programmer … well I guess that’s not an option. 😉

    1. If there are enough that satisfy, that may happen. 🙂

      I should be able to add additional layouts soon.

  14. I mentioned in today’s discussion that I’d post the link to a couple photos from my chases yesterday.

    This one is the shelf cloud from the approaching and weakening line of storms south of Boston, taken in Pembroke MA off Route 139. The photo was taken at 4:10 p.m. Saturday 6-6-2020: https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/102832578_10158493437072265_6590852086168342039_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=HqXecPtiefEAX9fkGsL&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=9b3c754caba21130022c69a52e77699a&oe=5F04727F

    This one is the first of 2 images of lightning from the severe storm near Hudson MA taken from Acton MA at 8:47 p.m. Saturday 6-6-2020: https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/102712631_10158493871422265_4731709702874265392_o.jpg?_nc_cat=100&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=gBj1PzlvZfYAX86Nmj8&_nc_ht=scontent.fbed1-1.fna&oh=a516354219cab3dc18302f34a23092b3&oe=5F02441F

    This one is the second of 2 images of lightning from the Hudson storm seen from Acton. This particular lightning strike was 2 miles west of me on the Acton/Boxborough line. This was at 8:49 p.m. Saturday 6-6-2020: https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/101677743_10158495871022265_6355545089011038566_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=0YtvtLb9frcAX_ecE18&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=ea5673b81391eab528a16560eb5b4866&oe=5F01B03C

  16. This layout looks good on my mobile device. Probably the best of them for that.

    Very clear, and no stupid hyphens!

  18. Cristobal appears to have two centers of circulation, and both have made landfall in southeastern Louisiana.

    So of the three named systems so far, all three have impacted the US and 2 have made landfall. None of them were actually tropical at the time. That’s why we’re going to have an above average season, because they’re just going to name every cluster of thunderstorms that appears to have a circulation, whether its tropical or not. At this rate “Tropical Storm Lambda” will bring heavy snow to parts of southern New England in late December.

    1. Thank you for saying this SAK- You are so very right.

      A funny note from this afternoon’s NWS point or zone forecasts for next Sunday. They give have a 90-100% chance of precipitation for next Sunday. If only I could have 100% confidence in a day 7 forecast just once.

      I actually think it must be an input population error. I can’t imagine anyone at Norton could have 100% confidence in day 7 given the current guidance.

  19. Also I actually like this layout the best. Clear, concise on my iPhone which is my most frequent reading and posting companion.

        1. Go be fair I cannot remember if I could with Thursday either. It was three days ago….I can’t recall three hours ago. I am just curious and also wondering if it is my phone screen size.

  21. SAK, great to see you posting again.

    I had to laugh about “tropical storm Lamda” that’s going to hit SNE with heavy snow on December 28th, according to SAK’s very long-range forecast!

  22. Put me down as not a fan of this one. The comments/replies aren’t nested in any way. Everything is left aligned so I can’t see if a comment is a reply. Plain white screen. Need to click on the title to know there’s a comment section which is not good for any newcomers to the blog. (I’m on an iphone using safari)

  23. I agree with Cristobal not being tropical, or at least the entity that is arriving on the Gulf Coast.

    If that had happened, who should be handling its impacts, of which there are some that are affecting a decent number of people.

    Should it still be the NHC, since it is a storm originating from a tropical ocean or the NWS ?

  24. This is perhaps the worst Covid-19 news in several weeks, in America, that is: https://twitter.com/PeterHotez/status/1269776395183546368

    Arizona is a hotspot. But, the news that ICU usage along with ventilators is reaching maximum capacity in Phoenix is really troublesome.

    Now, the demonstrations are worrying me even more than they did. The Phoenix spike in severe cases is NOT likely due to the protests (they were not large there, and occurred in recent days, so severe cases wouldn’t happen so quickly), but perhaps more related to reopening. What happens if the protests in dozens of major cities spawns outbreaks?

    Then there’s Las Vegas. Reopening is fine, but you have to do it in a sane way. You must respect the virus, because it waits for moments like these to pounce: https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/1269169419998990336

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