I was watching an ABC News Exclusive this morning and Dr. Fauci now has increasing confidence that a COVID vaccine should be available by the end of this year or the first few months of 2021.
Also, I noticed that Vermont has increasing cases again.
Troubling developments in Arizona, Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and North Carolina: All places where it’s warm to hot. Cases are rising fast in all these states, hospitalizations as well. This suggests the virus doesn’t mind the heat. I had thought it would. Never mind.
I’m very doubtful a highly efficacious vaccines will be ready by year’s end. We may have a vaccine, but having a vaccine doesn’t help much if it isn’t that good. Spring or summer 2021 perhaps for a vaccine that works well.
It should be noted that the mayor of Amsterdam, Netherlands, was called to parliament today to explain why she let a packed demonstration go ahead in the city. The issue here was NOT the protest itself. It was the lack of physical distancing. She apologized. She is a green-left politician. The Dutch are a pragmatic people. I respect this. Most agree with the demonstrators, but realize it’s counterproductive if there is no physical distancing and people get sick. I wish our public officials would be similarly pragmatic. It’s okay to call out BLM protests for not physically distancing, just as it’s okay to call out reopen protests for not physically distancing.
I just spent over an hour chatting with Macs cousin that I adore. She lives in Puget Sound and has a winter home in AZ. Her brothers and their families all live in AZ. She said they are now discussing field hospitals in AZ. What the heck is wrong with us. Weren’t we already there?
Washington seems to be just a bit ahead of us in the reopening. And they are seeing a small spike.
Joshua….I agree re protests. We absolutely cannot take away their right, but they can be called out for being irresponsible. And I all absolutely know many are being responsible. But some are surely not.
Arizona had its largest number of new cases today, AND test positivity is 18%! Texas had its largest number of hospitalizations today. This is not going in the direction I had hoped.
Reopening without masks and proper precautions – was was sen in Las Vegas this past weekend – is sheer stupidity. I’m sorry, fellow Americans, that’s what it is. Are we that ignorant? We’ll be right back where we started if we continue on this path.
You know what, masks aren’t pretty and physical distancing isn’t fun. So f….g what! They’re necessary means to get over this pandemic. How casino operators in Las Vegas could allow for what I saw – no masks, no physical distancing, and this included plenty of middle aged and even older folks – is beyond me. It’s reprehensible.
You simply cannot have a healthy, sustained economy without public health under control.
In some states there will be a call for a lockdown. The stop-start-stop policy that I warned about may happen. And that’s disastrous for the overall economy.
I think future shut downs in states that have reopened won’t go over very well. I would expect heavy resistance.
I absolutely agree. And that is the part that absolutely terrifies me.
“ You simply cannot have a healthy, sustained economy without public health under control.” .
^^^^^THIS^^^^^^
I cannot count the number of times I have heard cries to end restrictions because they hurt the economy. You simply cannot fix stupid.
As of this posting there is yet another demonstration beginning in Roxbury and ending at Boston City Hall.
I can’t recall an afternoon or evening when there “wasn’t” a demonstration somewhere. My guess is that there will be daily demonstrations in the streets until schools and colleges begin face-to-face classes in the fall.
Just for the record, tonight’s demonstrators want the BPD defunded by 10%.
Joshua…Why are you so doubtful that a vaccine can’t be available in the next 6-8 months? I would assume that Dr. Fauci wouldn’t go live on national television this morning if he wasn’t confident.
Fauci’s the true expert. I’m not. But, I’ve studied drug development for over 20 years, and looked at trends in timelines for drug and vaccine development. It’s a slow and risky process. The Phase III trials will be underway this summer. But, they’re the longest, largest, and for vaccines riskiest in terms of outcomes. What concerns me is that we may have a vaccine that is only marginally beneficial – like seasons in which we have a bad flu shot. This won’t be a game changer. FDA needs to be careful and really scrutinize the safety and efficacy data.
Interesting divide shaping up between the south and southwest where the vast majority of current new cases are, and the north and northeast where a dwindling number of new cases are tallied each day.
My hypothesis on the weather being a factor in transmissibility. Well, throw that one out the window, especially in light of the fact that relatively warm to hot parts of Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru have seen dramatic case growth. Chile has also seen significant growth, but in cooler sections of the country.
I am feeling like I’m holding my breath this week as it seems to me this and next week are the real test of how dire our situation is because either –
We don’t see a noticeable or huge spike in cases post-protests so we know that masks at least must provide a significant level of protection.
Or
Cases spike again bc of the protests. In which case – to be blunt – I think we’re screwed. Bc this would mean true social distancing is the only way to prevent transmission (masks aren’t enough)!but in this scenario I’m worried the protests would have created enough new cases to have taken route in the community that we are back to March 1 and we are looking at a second shut down.
Does this sound right and if it’s the bad scenario wouldn’t reported cases already be increasing? I think the big protests started around Sunday May 31st and the incubation period median is 4-5 days. So I assumed we might see cases start to rise this week. Is it a really good sign that they haven’t yet increased or am I being too optimistic? (Should I hold my breath a little longer?)
Cases throughout the south have been rising, in some cases dramatically. But, most of this is likely due to reopening without masks and basically without rules. I call it the Russian roulette of reopening.
Regarding protests, the incubation period is 4-14 days. In any case, you’re correct that one would expect to see the first results this week and an even bigger batch of results next. The largest protests started Sunday the 1st of June. Keep in mind that tests take time to be analyzed and reported. So, add another 1 to 2 days for that. Also, keep in mind that some of those infected (16-40%, according to estimates) may be asymptomatic, not get tested, but still potentially spread the disease, the WHO’s confused statements notwithstanding! I’m hoping that the masks worked. But, I fear they weren’t foolproof.
C-19 for 6-11 is up…
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I was watching an ABC News Exclusive this morning and Dr. Fauci now has increasing confidence that a COVID vaccine should be available by the end of this year or the first few months of 2021.
Also, I noticed that Vermont has increasing cases again.
Troubling developments in Arizona, Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and North Carolina: All places where it’s warm to hot. Cases are rising fast in all these states, hospitalizations as well. This suggests the virus doesn’t mind the heat. I had thought it would. Never mind.
I’m very doubtful a highly efficacious vaccines will be ready by year’s end. We may have a vaccine, but having a vaccine doesn’t help much if it isn’t that good. Spring or summer 2021 perhaps for a vaccine that works well.
It should be noted that the mayor of Amsterdam, Netherlands, was called to parliament today to explain why she let a packed demonstration go ahead in the city. The issue here was NOT the protest itself. It was the lack of physical distancing. She apologized. She is a green-left politician. The Dutch are a pragmatic people. I respect this. Most agree with the demonstrators, but realize it’s counterproductive if there is no physical distancing and people get sick. I wish our public officials would be similarly pragmatic. It’s okay to call out BLM protests for not physically distancing, just as it’s okay to call out reopen protests for not physically distancing.
I just spent over an hour chatting with Macs cousin that I adore. She lives in Puget Sound and has a winter home in AZ. Her brothers and their families all live in AZ. She said they are now discussing field hospitals in AZ. What the heck is wrong with us. Weren’t we already there?
Washington seems to be just a bit ahead of us in the reopening. And they are seeing a small spike.
Joshua….I agree re protests. We absolutely cannot take away their right, but they can be called out for being irresponsible. And I all absolutely know many are being responsible. But some are surely not.
Arizona had its largest number of new cases today, AND test positivity is 18%! Texas had its largest number of hospitalizations today. This is not going in the direction I had hoped.
Reopening without masks and proper precautions – was was sen in Las Vegas this past weekend – is sheer stupidity. I’m sorry, fellow Americans, that’s what it is. Are we that ignorant? We’ll be right back where we started if we continue on this path.
You know what, masks aren’t pretty and physical distancing isn’t fun. So f….g what! They’re necessary means to get over this pandemic. How casino operators in Las Vegas could allow for what I saw – no masks, no physical distancing, and this included plenty of middle aged and even older folks – is beyond me. It’s reprehensible.
You simply cannot have a healthy, sustained economy without public health under control.
In some states there will be a call for a lockdown. The stop-start-stop policy that I warned about may happen. And that’s disastrous for the overall economy.
I think future shut downs in states that have reopened won’t go over very well. I would expect heavy resistance.
I absolutely agree. And that is the part that absolutely terrifies me.
“ You simply cannot have a healthy, sustained economy without public health under control.” .
^^^^^THIS^^^^^^
I cannot count the number of times I have heard cries to end restrictions because they hurt the economy. You simply cannot fix stupid.
As of this posting there is yet another demonstration beginning in Roxbury and ending at Boston City Hall.
I can’t recall an afternoon or evening when there “wasn’t” a demonstration somewhere. My guess is that there will be daily demonstrations in the streets until schools and colleges begin face-to-face classes in the fall.
Just for the record, tonight’s demonstrators want the BPD defunded by 10%.
Joshua…Why are you so doubtful that a vaccine can’t be available in the next 6-8 months? I would assume that Dr. Fauci wouldn’t go live on national television this morning if he wasn’t confident.
Fauci’s the true expert. I’m not. But, I’ve studied drug development for over 20 years, and looked at trends in timelines for drug and vaccine development. It’s a slow and risky process. The Phase III trials will be underway this summer. But, they’re the longest, largest, and for vaccines riskiest in terms of outcomes. What concerns me is that we may have a vaccine that is only marginally beneficial – like seasons in which we have a bad flu shot. This won’t be a game changer. FDA needs to be careful and really scrutinize the safety and efficacy data.
Interesting divide shaping up between the south and southwest where the vast majority of current new cases are, and the north and northeast where a dwindling number of new cases are tallied each day.
My hypothesis on the weather being a factor in transmissibility. Well, throw that one out the window, especially in light of the fact that relatively warm to hot parts of Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru have seen dramatic case growth. Chile has also seen significant growth, but in cooler sections of the country.
I am feeling like I’m holding my breath this week as it seems to me this and next week are the real test of how dire our situation is because either –
We don’t see a noticeable or huge spike in cases post-protests so we know that masks at least must provide a significant level of protection.
Or
Cases spike again bc of the protests. In which case – to be blunt – I think we’re screwed. Bc this would mean true social distancing is the only way to prevent transmission (masks aren’t enough)!but in this scenario I’m worried the protests would have created enough new cases to have taken route in the community that we are back to March 1 and we are looking at a second shut down.
Does this sound right and if it’s the bad scenario wouldn’t reported cases already be increasing? I think the big protests started around Sunday May 31st and the incubation period median is 4-5 days. So I assumed we might see cases start to rise this week. Is it a really good sign that they haven’t yet increased or am I being too optimistic? (Should I hold my breath a little longer?)
Cases throughout the south have been rising, in some cases dramatically. But, most of this is likely due to reopening without masks and basically without rules. I call it the Russian roulette of reopening.
Regarding protests, the incubation period is 4-14 days. In any case, you’re correct that one would expect to see the first results this week and an even bigger batch of results next. The largest protests started Sunday the 1st of June. Keep in mind that tests take time to be analyzed and reported. So, add another 1 to 2 days for that. Also, keep in mind that some of those infected (16-40%, according to estimates) may be asymptomatic, not get tested, but still potentially spread the disease, the WHO’s confused statements notwithstanding! I’m hoping that the masks worked. But, I fear they weren’t foolproof.
C-19 for 6-11 is up…