Has the second wave arrived much earlier than expected?
Do you mean 100,000 more cases over a 5 day period? If so, yes, probably. If you mean an additional 100,000 deaths that is likely but over a 4-5 month time frame in my best estimate.
While most of the Northern tier of the U.S. continues to see steep declines in new cases, hospitalizations, and ICU usage, the Southern tier is a very different story
What we’re seeing in the south and southwest is NOT a second wave, in my opinion. It’s a continuation of the first wave. This is like walking up Tuckerman’s ravine from Pinkham Notch, First, a trail through rising hills, then a sudden steep climb followed by a plateau around the lip of the ravine. On the plateau you’ll even experience occasional dips. But subsequently there’s the rock pile before we get to the summit of Mount Washington. Even though I like hiking, I’m hoping we avoid the rock pile, return to Hermit Lake shelter, and eventually descend to the base.
Regarding the protests, my back of the envelope calculations suggest that we should see or not see evidence of a spike in the coming days. First, Minnesota. It’s been 2 weeks. Even adding the time it takes to test, get lab results, and report (2-4 days), we should be observing some evidence by today and tomorrow. The other states would ensue. Let’s hope outdoor transmission is indeed much more difficult. If so, that is, if there is no spike, I would rethink all outdoor activities.
One of the big mysteries of SARS-CoV-2 is why it impacts certain people MUCH more than others. Immunology is still a frontier in science, if you will, a place where scientists are learning but have so much more to learn.
Joshua – or anyone that has an answer. I was wondering what severing ties with WHO means. Does it mean we are no longer involved in joint world testing and research? Does it mean, if there are various viable vaccines tested, we will not be included in the process or end result or not even informed? Thank you!
While Trump has formally indicated the U.S. will sever ties with WHO, it’s obligated, according to federal law, to continue working with WHO until May of 2021 – 1 year after Trump’s letter.
WHO was and is heavily involved in testing and treatments for coronavirus, but has not been as involved in vaccine development.
WHO’s main role is coordinating the global response to the pandemic. In that role, the results are mixed, as we know. Yet, WHO is indispensable in terms of the rest of what it does (99% of its activities!), including HIV, neglected tropical diseases, immunizations, Ebola, TB, tracking world health data, designing essential drug lists, clinical trial involvement across dozens of therapeutic areas.
Thanks Joshua. Now that is pretty graphic for sure. Frightening to say the least.
Sooooo not just the flu eh? I do wish we had a range of emojis with WP. An eye roll at least.
Thank you, Joshua.
I should add that I agree with JPD. Graphic and terrifying.
Joshua – just a shout out to thank you so much for all of your insights – and to thank TK for creating this sub-chat. Bc frankly there aren’t many places to find reasonable and informed discussions about Covid right now.
That is the absolute truth. I’m still in awe of the fact that Joshua mentioned immediately that Dr. Kirkhove was excellent in her field but sometimes was not a good communicator. She has since said pretty much the same thing about herself. And I’m just now seeing references to Ashish Jha’s comments which Joshua cited several days ago also.
Seems we have an amazing place to go both for covid and weather ….both with very knowledgeable folks.
Today’s data is trickling in. Just took a peek. Minnesota has an uptick of 100 cases. Not much, but it had been trending downward for the past 10 days with numbers between 250 and 350 during that period. Today 450. Important to look and see how this evolves. Could be a blip and therefore nothing.
So far, other numbers are strikingly ominous across the south and southwest today where testing rates are about twice as low as ours in the northeast, with relatively high test positivity. This suggests that numbers of infected are actually much higher.
It’s irresponsible for Mnuchin to declare – as if public health is his thing! – we won’t shut down the economy no matter what. Certainly, I’m not advocating on behalf of a shutdown. But, if numbers in the south and southwest continue their dramatic trend upward some of these places will have to shut down, unless we just accept massive levels of death.
There is NO way most business owners will accept another shutdown. They will either remain open and defy any shutdown orders at risk of daily fines or…take to the streets much like what our youth is doing at present and end up spreading the virus via non-social distancing/mask wearing anyway.
The current belief among many is that we have to worry about one generation and not focus on all…..I wasn’t prepared to be sacrificed but guess that is not out of the question
Dow down more than 1800 points on news of COVID19 cases increasing in some states since the reopenings. Scott Gottlieb former FDA commissioner said quote states such as Texas and Arizonia never really got rid of the first wave it is not a second wave.
Fairly significant spike in new cases today across the country. Data is coming in and showing increases across the nation. This is not a function of more testing, because in many (majority) states the testing rates haven’t changed in several weeks. Our testing is still not close to where it should be. Our contact tracing systems are absent for the most part. It’s generally not our thing in America to be systematic, thorough, and detail-oriented. I don’t entirely lay the blame on the current administration.
But, public health was certainly never prioritized by the Trump Administration and by many state governors. This was apparent from the get-go when Trump appointed Pence to lead the Coronavirus Task Force, which included Kudlow, Mnuchin, and Kushner in prominent positions on the team. None of these men know anything about public health. It was also apparent when states that didn’t have their coronavirus numbers under control reopened nonchalantly.
This said, many states have reopened with safe plans in place. Rhode Island, for example, has an excellent governor who knows that it takes a detailed, comprehensive plan to beat this virus and ensure a sustained economic recovery. It’s not a coincidence that her state has the highest testing rate in the country. It’s also not a coincidence that yet another female leader knows: a. how to multi-task; b. get the job done. We’ve seen the best responses worldwide by female leaders countries like New Zealand and Germany.
Now hopefully the cases in Florida go down as the NBA is planning on restarting it’s season on July 31st in Orlando. Hopefully by the time baseball starts Houston will improve otherwise the Astros might have to play somewhere else.
C-19 for 6-12 is up…
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
An additional USA 100,000 cases expected.
Has the second wave arrived much earlier than expected?
Do you mean 100,000 more cases over a 5 day period? If so, yes, probably. If you mean an additional 100,000 deaths that is likely but over a 4-5 month time frame in my best estimate.
While most of the Northern tier of the U.S. continues to see steep declines in new cases, hospitalizations, and ICU usage, the Southern tier is a very different story
What we’re seeing in the south and southwest is NOT a second wave, in my opinion. It’s a continuation of the first wave. This is like walking up Tuckerman’s ravine from Pinkham Notch, First, a trail through rising hills, then a sudden steep climb followed by a plateau around the lip of the ravine. On the plateau you’ll even experience occasional dips. But subsequently there’s the rock pile before we get to the summit of Mount Washington. Even though I like hiking, I’m hoping we avoid the rock pile, return to Hermit Lake shelter, and eventually descend to the base.
Regarding the protests, my back of the envelope calculations suggest that we should see or not see evidence of a spike in the coming days. First, Minnesota. It’s been 2 weeks. Even adding the time it takes to test, get lab results, and report (2-4 days), we should be observing some evidence by today and tomorrow. The other states would ensue. Let’s hope outdoor transmission is indeed much more difficult. If so, that is, if there is no spike, I would rethink all outdoor activities.
One of the big mysteries of SARS-CoV-2 is why it impacts certain people MUCH more than others. Immunology is still a frontier in science, if you will, a place where scientists are learning but have so much more to learn.
This Times piece is on a young woman whose life was saved by a double lung transplant: https://twitter.com/nytDeniseGrady/status/1271058363363864578
Joshua – or anyone that has an answer. I was wondering what severing ties with WHO means. Does it mean we are no longer involved in joint world testing and research? Does it mean, if there are various viable vaccines tested, we will not be included in the process or end result or not even informed? Thank you!
While Trump has formally indicated the U.S. will sever ties with WHO, it’s obligated, according to federal law, to continue working with WHO until May of 2021 – 1 year after Trump’s letter.
WHO was and is heavily involved in testing and treatments for coronavirus, but has not been as involved in vaccine development.
WHO’s main role is coordinating the global response to the pandemic. In that role, the results are mixed, as we know. Yet, WHO is indispensable in terms of the rest of what it does (99% of its activities!), including HIV, neglected tropical diseases, immunizations, Ebola, TB, tracking world health data, designing essential drug lists, clinical trial involvement across dozens of therapeutic areas.
Thank you, Joshua. GREATLY appreciated.
Visual of how Covid-19 has climbed the ranks to become a global leading cause of death: https://twitter.com/GaviSeth/status/1270967346878992386
Thanks Joshua. Now that is pretty graphic for sure. Frightening to say the least.
Sooooo not just the flu eh? I do wish we had a range of emojis with WP. An eye roll at least.
Thank you, Joshua.
I should add that I agree with JPD. Graphic and terrifying.
Joshua – just a shout out to thank you so much for all of your insights – and to thank TK for creating this sub-chat. Bc frankly there aren’t many places to find reasonable and informed discussions about Covid right now.
That is the absolute truth. I’m still in awe of the fact that Joshua mentioned immediately that Dr. Kirkhove was excellent in her field but sometimes was not a good communicator. She has since said pretty much the same thing about herself. And I’m just now seeing references to Ashish Jha’s comments which Joshua cited several days ago also.
Seems we have an amazing place to go both for covid and weather ….both with very knowledgeable folks.
Today’s data is trickling in. Just took a peek. Minnesota has an uptick of 100 cases. Not much, but it had been trending downward for the past 10 days with numbers between 250 and 350 during that period. Today 450. Important to look and see how this evolves. Could be a blip and therefore nothing.
So far, other numbers are strikingly ominous across the south and southwest today where testing rates are about twice as low as ours in the northeast, with relatively high test positivity. This suggests that numbers of infected are actually much higher.
It’s irresponsible for Mnuchin to declare – as if public health is his thing! – we won’t shut down the economy no matter what. Certainly, I’m not advocating on behalf of a shutdown. But, if numbers in the south and southwest continue their dramatic trend upward some of these places will have to shut down, unless we just accept massive levels of death.
There is NO way most business owners will accept another shutdown. They will either remain open and defy any shutdown orders at risk of daily fines or…take to the streets much like what our youth is doing at present and end up spreading the virus via non-social distancing/mask wearing anyway.
The current belief among many is that we have to worry about one generation and not focus on all…..I wasn’t prepared to be sacrificed but guess that is not out of the question
Dow down more than 1800 points on news of COVID19 cases increasing in some states since the reopenings. Scott Gottlieb former FDA commissioner said quote states such as Texas and Arizonia never really got rid of the first wave it is not a second wave.
Fairly significant spike in new cases today across the country. Data is coming in and showing increases across the nation. This is not a function of more testing, because in many (majority) states the testing rates haven’t changed in several weeks. Our testing is still not close to where it should be. Our contact tracing systems are absent for the most part. It’s generally not our thing in America to be systematic, thorough, and detail-oriented. I don’t entirely lay the blame on the current administration.
But, public health was certainly never prioritized by the Trump Administration and by many state governors. This was apparent from the get-go when Trump appointed Pence to lead the Coronavirus Task Force, which included Kudlow, Mnuchin, and Kushner in prominent positions on the team. None of these men know anything about public health. It was also apparent when states that didn’t have their coronavirus numbers under control reopened nonchalantly.
This said, many states have reopened with safe plans in place. Rhode Island, for example, has an excellent governor who knows that it takes a detailed, comprehensive plan to beat this virus and ensure a sustained economic recovery. It’s not a coincidence that her state has the highest testing rate in the country. It’s also not a coincidence that yet another female leader knows: a. how to multi-task; b. get the job done. We’ve seen the best responses worldwide by female leaders countries like New Zealand and Germany.
Houston Texas
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-11/houston-may-reopen-virus-hospital-at-stadium-as-cases-expand
In Florida
https://www.wesh.com/article/coronavirus-florida-covid-19/32824961
Now hopefully the cases in Florida go down as the NBA is planning on restarting it’s season on July 31st in Orlando. Hopefully by the time baseball starts Houston will improve otherwise the Astros might have to play somewhere else.
C-19 for 6-12 is up…