Friday June 19 2020 Forecast

45 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

The day-by-day warm-up continues and today and tomorrow will be the hottest of this week, along with higher humidity. The humidity will remain elevated though the temperature will come down a few notches on Sunday with a little more of a southerly to even southeasterly wind as low pressure passing southeast of the region tweaks the air flow. By Monday, we’re back to a summery southwesterly wind flow, high humidity, and a risk of a shower or storm for all locations as a weak cold front starts to approach the region from the west. That front will be moving very slowly so Tuesday’s weather will be similar, very warm, humid, shower / t-storm risk.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog burning off to sun and a few clouds. Humid. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog burning off to sun and a few clouds. Humid. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy except becoming mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy South Coast. Partly sunny elsewhere. Humid. Highs 73-80 coast, 80-87 inland. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

A second front enters the region June 24 and may increase the risk of shower activity that day. The next disturbance may do the same June 26 followed by another at the end of the period. This pattern may seem active but still is not likely to produce all that much rainfall, which is needed. Temperatures variable, mostly near normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

A zonal (west to east) flow is expected with variable but overall seasonably warm weather but limit opportunities for any shower activity as the overall pattern continues dry.

45 thoughts on “Friday June 19 2020 Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Not liking this HHH pattern at all. Not at all. Yes, I know some
    love this weather and that is aok, but sadly I do not, or shall I say my wife cannot handle it. I can take it or leave it.

  4. Thanks TK
    Summer fans your loving this upcoming weather. I am not excited about any of these thunderstorms chances in the forecast yet.

    2. A

      B is depressing, cloudy every day, wouldn’t make it mentally.

      C is New England, 6 months of winter, stinks.

      D you’d have to rebuild every year

      A: have an A/C and your all set 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. At the minimum of 600/month for AC and 92.5/month for oil (and that was at higher prices)……hmmmmm

        1. Rethinking. AC costs about 325/month. Rest is for normal electric charge. Still a no go for me though

    3. Choice C would be interesting, especially if your idea of “perfect” weather is cold, dark and snowy.

    4. C. Six months of cold, cloudy and snow is perfect to me so it ends up being 12 perfect months.

  8. I saw Ryan Maue’s tweet a week or so ago about GFS 500 mb performance, so I’m not buying into the 597 dm ridge the GFS builds overhead on the 12z run.

    However, the euro weeklies, CFS model, La Niña pattern, regional dry spell and eastern Canada being roasted multiple times this spring, I think it’s reasonable to assume continuous very warm to hot times lie ahead.

    Plan accordingly, I don’t think we’ve seen the tip of the iceberg for heat, being on the south side of these crazy Canada 588 to 590 mb ridges, allowing at the surface for cool NE winds.

    1. Go Away! I refuse to listen to talk like this!!
      !@#*(!@*(#*(!@&*(#&!(*@^#&*^!@*&#^&!@^#&*^!@*&#^*&!^@#&*^!@*&#^&!*^@#$&%!@*&$%!@%$&^!(*$)(!&#$_*!^#$)&^!(&*$@!(*&%@$!^*@$@*!(&#$)(^!@$^!*(&@$(*!&(*$!*(^@$

      1. You’ll probably like my thoughts a bit more.

        Keep in mind the models were forecasting high temps in the middle to upper 90s for today just about a week ago. They were off by 10 to 18 degrees.

    1. No. I’ve already told you we’re not going to have a summer like 1983. 🙂

      The patterns that have lead up to what we have now are not really a complete indication of the summer. Our temps for the summer overall probably won’t end up all that far from normal. 🙂

  10. 95 in Caribou, ME again, while Logan is at 85 and Norwood at
    86 with land breezes. Well, that is some consolation anyway!

  11. The HHH description for today and to some degree going forward is not really correct.

    1) It’s not hazy at all. And haze is going to be hard to come by. Think about why.

    2) Hot, well that’s subjective. It’s very warm to borderline hot, but it’s surely not scorching (middle to upper 90s) here in SNE. And it won’t be either, anytime soon. I said several days ago that the upper air here in SNE does not really support super heat. Yes there is a chance that the dry ground compensates for this, as SAK indicated, to make temps over achieve a bit, but as you saw from his forecast, it was only a degree or two higher than mine. The upper atmosphere supports hotter temps to the north. This is part of the leftover blocking pattern and doesn’t really have much implication for future weather, as this pattern is a transitional one at this time. Coming back to today: Take a look at your 2PM observations and tell me how many stations are 90 or higher in SNE. I’ll give away the answer: Zero. 🙂

    3) Humid. Yes, it’s humid. The dew point is over 60. But it’s not oppressive. You need 70+ dew point for that. Will we get there? Probably not. Middle to upper 60s for dew points with the peak being next Monday & Tuesday.

    So HHH? Not really. I stated sometime earlier this week that the coming set-up, while much warmer, was not a HHH set-up for southern New England.

  12. Vicki, Happy Belated Birthday! I apologize for not sending you best wishes yesterday.

    The warmth appears to be descending over us from the north. The other day I saw that all the way up to Hudson Bay it was in the 80s. As I recall a couple of weeks back NNE and Southern Quebec were also warmer than SNE.

    1. A pretty strong atmospheric block was the reason for the higher heat further north. High heights, high temps. That was up there. Lower heights, lower temps. That was down here. It’s a bit of a cross-over between spring & summer patterns. A hybrid if you will. This has also happened many times in the past, before everybody was paying such close attention. 😉 So it’s nothing new.

    2. Thank you, Joshua. No apologies necessary. It just extends my birthday for a second day. 🙂

  15. Just to clarify, I wasn’t implying a 1983 redo or 98F every day from here on out til the equinox.

    But, I do think we’ll be seeing above average temps as a whole with not a lot of sub 83F high temp days.

    Temps will overachieve most setups by 1-3F until we get a widespread soaking.

  16. Re-glancing at the medium range…

    No big shocking changes to report.
    Still feel my forecast temps are in the ballpark. Folks out in social media land are acting as if we’re in the midst of a searing oppressive heatwave. They’re not posting from Caribou or southeastern Canada, that is for sure. Middle to upper 80s with dp’s in the lower 60s is very warm and somewhat humid, but let’s be realistic here. This is not brutal by New England standards – not nearly so. 🙂

    Still think June 24, 26, & 28 are the 3 days that stand the greatest risk of “general” showers, but not going to reverse the dry trend we’re in. They expanded the “abnormally dry” on yesterday’s Drought Monitor report. Expect that to stay about the same next week if those showers materialize. If it’s drier than I expect, then it will expand. Not long after that, part of the region should be classified in “moderate drought”.

    I don’t see anything resembling sustained heat and humidity of the magnitude of some of our hotter stretches, but we will have plenty of “summery” days. Basically, summer is starting off as it was expected to.

  17. I wish I could feel more comfortable with that CFS seasonal forecast, but holy smokes can it flip flop. Still fun to look at though.

    1. Not bad, but I’m a little skeptical of the 93’s and 94’s for the middle of next week. They are probably influenced too much by a very poor GFS temperature forecast. Kind of like those middle to upper 90s it once forecast for today. 😉

  19. As of 4PM, reported temps across SNE range from 69 at Nantucket to 89 at Bedford & Lawrence. Note that the 89 at those 2 locations is probably actually 87, because thermometers at both of those locations continue to run 1 to 2 degrees too high, similar to the way Boston was running before it was re-calibrated. So the actual temp range as of 4PM is 69-87, maybe 88.

  21. Tk you had mentioned the lack of haze around here. Is that due to the decreased air pollution from the couple month covid 19 shutdown, causing decreased ground level ozone?

    2. It has been less hazy due to changes in our standards during the last 20 years, but this particular event has added to that even more.

  22. Somewhere early this spring there is a discussion on the blog between TK and I. I believe we were both prognosticating a dry and warm summer, but not a hot summer. A lot of days with temps 83-88 with dew points in the 50s and 60s. Seems like an even better bet now.

    I am trending my thoughts of even more dry than even I was thinking this summer and I am really not high on widespread showers next week. Maybe more clouds than this past week as we had a nice deep blue sky, but more than 0.25″, I am not particularly confident about.

    1. Agree. The “general shower” threats I mentioned are really more like the “developing drought” version. 😉

      1. I saw a lot of people posting ECMWF and GFS temp forecasts in the mid and long range the last few days. No better example as to why not to do this than the difference between the 12z ECMWF and 00z ECMWF. The difference in the end range of the guidance is staggering. The 12z dry with temps in the 80s. The 00z delivers temps in the 60s and 70s with 48 hours of 1-2″ of rain with a low going up to our west and then being locked in with developing low pressure to our south. It’s a totally unrealistic scenario given the climatic set up but it goes to show you the vagaries of model consistency. Regardless of model or their predictions of 102 degree temperatures, or 1-2 inches of rain their verbatim output require measured and thoughtful analysis.

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