Sunday June 21 2020 Forecast

94 Comments

8:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

There is a long-standing observance / joke that Mother’s Day is often wet around here and Father’s Day is often summery and nice. Well, while not always the cause, it is more likely to be that way than not be that way. Think about why. If you recall, Mother’s Day was not rainy this year, but Father’s Day will be nice and summery. And, well, that makes sense. We’re in a weather pattern that supports it, and it’s the first full day of summer too! Wow, what are the chances! So this pattern hangs around for a bit, and only gets dented slightly by marine-modified air the next couple days. You won’t notice a big change, as it stays moderately humid, but the temperature does come down just a bit off what it was yesterday, and those 2 factors will go in to limiting thunderstorm chances to a little less than what we had yesterday. And even yesterday’s activity, while sitting over the same areas for a while, was very isolated. Most saw nothing. And pretty much everybody will see nothing again today and Monday. The risk goes up a tad Tuesday as a front gets closer and it heats up a bit more again, and then a shot of more widespread shower activity takes place Wednesday as the front crosses the region. I’m not too confident on timing of a feature behind this, but for now I’m leaning toward dry weather for Thursday.

TODAY: South Coast low clouds into mid morning burning off to sunshine. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy elsewhere. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Some low clouds/fog especially South Coast. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Very slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A little less humid. Highs 80-88. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

Greatest shower threats June 26 and 28 and 30. But by no means is this a switch to a wetter pattern overall – just a few disturbances passing by. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

Zonal flow (from the west, northwest at times). This is a dry pattern overall. We may see a shot of cooler air to start the period and we always have to watch for disturbance that can trigger fast-moving thunderstorms in this type of pattern.

94 thoughts on “Sunday June 21 2020 Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    Happy Father’s Day to you and to every one of our WHW dads!!!

    We really need a heart emoji !

  2. Thanks, TK…

    Happy Fathers Day to my fellow dads, stepdads, Gramps and all who fulfill the paternal role in a person’s life!!!

    76 degrees already at 0900.

    JPD…I hope Mrs. OS is feeling okay. I always think of her in this tough weather!

    Enjoy the day, and Happy Sum-mah, y’all!!!! 🙂

    1. Thank you Capt. She had a really rough day yesterday and
      was quite ill. As she gets older she has become more and more
      sensitive to heat and humidity. What feels uncomfortable to us
      at 70 dp, she feels at 60 dp. She can tell instantly when the dp
      has risen. For example last evening the dp was 61 at 6PM towards 7PM she said the dp has gone up. At 7PM it was 66. She nails it every time.

      I am pretty sure she is ready to have me install at least
      one of the 4 window AC units we have. All brand new efficient and quiet models.

      Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there.

      1. Do whatever you can to make her comfortable JPD. Dewpoints are expected to spike to 70 on Wednesday but should drop steadily during Thursday. Hopefully next weekend will be better.

        Happy Father’s Day to all! 🙂

    1. Logan’s wind has turned SE. Not as cooling as E or NE wind, but I’ll take anything at this point.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    Happy Father’s Day to all at WHW.

    The days are getting “shorter.” Not that I really sense it until late July.

    1. I start to notice it sooner than that, not long after the 4th (July). Since I get up early to get ready for work most days, even a few minutes later makes a subtle difference that ‘morning darkness’ will eventually overtake us all in the weeks to come.

    2. True, but sunsets remain the same until July 4th when it is a minute earlier. 🙂

      Here it is from June 19th through July 4

      Date Sunrise Sunset Day length
      19 June 2020, Friday 05:08 20:23 15:14
      20 June 2020, Saturday 05:08 20:23 15:14
      21 June 2020, Sunday 05:08 20:23 15:14
      22 June 2020, Monday 05:09 20:23 15:14
      23 June 2020, Tuesday 05:09 20:23 15:14
      24 June 2020, Wednesday 05:09 20:23 15:14
      25 June 2020, Thursday 05:10 20:23 15:13
      26 June 2020, Friday 05:10 20:23 15:13
      27 June 2020, Saturday 05:10 20:23 15:13
      28 June 2020, Sunday 05:11 20:23 15:12
      29 June 2020, Monday 05:11 20:23 15:12
      30 June 2020, Tuesday 05:12 20:23 15:11
      1 July 2020, Wednesday 05:12 20:23 15:10
      2 July 2020, Thursday 05:13 20:23 15:10
      3 July 2020, Friday 05:13 20:23 15:09
      4 July 2020, Saturday 05:14 20:22 15:08

  13. Kudos to TK, if I have this correctly ….

    Portland, ME has an east wind and is 68F. That shallow, back door front isn’t tremendously far up the coast from us.

    I do think TK, many days ago, was throwing out the possibility of a back door front today.

    To see that kind of small scale weather item that many days out is really, really, really good !

    1. I’m not sure if that’s an actual front (synoptic scale) or it’s more a boundary from a previous shower/t-storm (meso scale). But for a while I have felt the temps would come down today due to a little better chance for some onshore flow (not strong). Originally (about a week ago) I was hedging my bet on a more genuine back-door, but the atmosphere didn’t agree and the ridge is too far north to all the surface to cooperate.

      1. I think it’s more of a front because …… all of Maine is in the clear for cumulus cloud development, the convection in eastern NH has hit a brick wall and the winds in Maine are light easterly with a very slight sfc pressure rise.

        1. It’s a seabreeze/onshore flow, not a backdoor front. If it were a backdoor front, temperatures would not be in the 80s across most of Maine.

  15. Probably not strong enough, but any chance we could have
    some sea breeze boundary showers/storms. There is quite
    a bit of cumulus activity overhead at my house, but growth
    appears to be limited at this time.

    1. Wow!!! I just looked and it wasn’t there and now it is.

      Now that’s what I’m Talk about. Motion “appears” to be
      towards my area. We shall see. Will let you know.

      Now is this a sea-breeze boundary storm? Regular pop-up storm?
      Some other kind of boundary?

          1. Shows beautifully on that satellite image. Thanks TOM.
            Looking at radar loop it seems to get up to Quincy and then collapses back to Weymouth.

            Storm has lightning!
            I hope it gets here, but I fear not.

            One thing, it IS providing cloud cover as the sun is
            behind clouds!!!

  18. 12s euro cranks up a 594 dm eastern Great Lakes ridge days 9 and 10.

    Let’s see if there’s consistency to that.

  19. These storms have a punch to them as well, very loud popping thunder as I like to call it compared to the rumble thunder. Been a consistant light rain the past half hour to 45 minutes with times of heavier rain. I hope this goes away quick.

  20. I hear THUNDER! Nice thunder too.

    Still away off. Still do not think it gets here, but Absolutely
    best time of the day for these.

    2. Nice shot. I am seeing it from the other direction.
      Keep hearing thunder. NO rain and it appears that
      there is now a ring of storms around the city with
      Squadush in the city as I kind of expected.
      Sort of 1/2 a donut hole!

      https://imgur.com/a/yffW4xo

        1. I like Radarscope a lot. TK suggested it to me.
          At $9.95 I thought that it was well worth it as it has a very nice storm relative velocity display as well.

  25. Now 79 at the airport.

    83 here in JP. Probably accurate as my sensor has been in the shade for about an hour or so.

  26. Yet a new cell is popping further up Rte 128, perhaps 10 to 15 miles northwest of the intersection with Rte 24.

  27. I hear thunder all over the place. Lightning strikes as close as
    8 miles South of me. Radar echos within a few miles of me.

  28. I’ve been impressed with the activity on the sea breeze boundary today. I very much under-forecast this activity, which has been a Florida-like live thunderstorm laboratory. I am loving that part, even though nothing happened right over me. I did get to watch a nice evolution from the local area. These storms are not really chaseable, which sounds like a contradiction when you take into account they are hardly moving. But each cell, in most cases, pops up and rains out. You can’t always tell when/where a new cell may fire so it’s like playing darts. And other than that cell south of Boston, which btw SAK was underneath, they have not been prolific lightning producers overall.

    2. We don’t see these around here too often, but I have seen it before and sometimes the storms can be potent. I love these as well. Awesome day today!!

    3. Same here, in our case, too far NW. But its been fun to watch on radar and the initial one near the Braintree Split, at least we could somewhat see that one on the northwestern horizon.

  30. It must be interesting up just to the west of 128, to have a thunderstorm arrive from the east.

      1. Nice ! Maybe I experienced one in Lowell, growing up, but I don’t remember it.

        Down here in Marshfield, no chance !!

        Well, unless the year 2020, cat 6 hurricane rotates one in on a leading outer band. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  31. SAK reports 2.58 inches of rainfall in Brockton with a PWS in nearby Holbrook recording 3.87 inches!

    2. I believe it. It appeared to be a soaker for sure! thanks for the info. 0.00 inches in my bucket. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. My favorite areas for development tomorrow are northwestern RI and central MA up to southwestern NH. I can’t rule something out further east but I don’t think it’s going to fire the same way.

          1. we shall see. have not had a really good storm here in quite some time I mean a good one by my fussy standards. We have had some my wife thought were bad, but did not impress me.

  33. Did the upper low passing offshore today have any indirect influence on providing convergence for these storms to form?

    How many days each summer can we see the boundary on the radar on similarly warm, humid days and not much happens.

    Seems like the variable in today’s scenario.

    1. Could be. We need TK, SAK, JMA or WxWatcher to answer
      that one. Clearly it could be seen on the satellite.
      Personally, I think all it did was help turn the winds on shore
      and that was enough.

      2. That would be my thinking. Most days, when we get a seabreeze, we have light west or southwest winds, and the seabreeze is from the east. So it doesn’t do much because you get one wind direction just wins out.. Today, we had south-southeast winds in most places, and the seabreeze was east-southeast, so we had some convergence, combined with the instability already in place, to produce these, instead of a battle between the wind directions.

        1. That makes more sense than my answer, actually. I initially thought that thing SE of us would cause coastal showers further southeast, but I didn’t take into account the convergence.

    2. That probably had minimal impact, if any. I think the evidence was already presenting itself early on when that sea breeze plowed into Maine. I think we were going to end up with something anyway, even though I didn’t quite foresee it happening the way it did. The atmosphere was gonna do it.

  34. Seems like all of the remaining convection in the Boston area
    is merging into one last cell out in the Framingham/Natick area.

  35. As was mentioned, I measured 2.58″ from that storm. I have not seen it rain that hard since I got caught outside in a severe thunderstorms in the parking lot at Epcot Center a couple of summers ago (that’s another long story).

    This cell had a LOT of lightning with it. I was on my way home from a 3am-3pm shift at work. I hit the 1st drops right by Blue Hill. Once I got onto Route 24, traffic was virtually stopped just before Route 139, as visibility was under 1/4 mile. I got off at 139, and took back roads for the final 5 miles of my trip through Stoughton/Avon/Holbrook to my house on the Brockton/Holbrook line. Most of the streets were under several inches of water, and in some spots, it was halfway up the wheels. When I got to the house, it was still pouring. It’s about 20 feet from where I parked my car in the driveway to the front door of the house, and my shirt got completely drenched. It’s literally hanging to dry right now.

  37. Nice boomers in Natick. Torrential rain with the sun shining for a couple minutes too…very cool

  39. Really nice day today and feels even better with the breeze now. Was saying to my kids earlier this morning that it reminded me of a Florida sky.

  40. https://twitter.com/i/status/1274800520629153793

    Found the above on the NWS-BOX twitter page. It’s the actual 3D illustration of today’s outflow boundary. I found it fascinating.
    I hope the link works. I am not on Twitter.

    Here’s the cutline to the illustration:

    Fascinating 3D-radar animation from the storms south of Boston this afternoon. Classic example of an “outflow boundary” from one storm kicking off another storm before the first collapses. An outflow boundary forms when wind drops from a storm, hits the ground, and spreads out.

  41. I hope we can pop a storm here in southern Worcester county tomorrow, it has been as dry as I’ve seen it in a while here. My lawn has gone dormant more than I’ve ever seen in the 19 years that I’ve lived here. I’m not one to water my lawn because I don’t like to tax my well pump and drain the well for green grass but tonight I turned it on for a bit to water both flower garden and lawn. All of the wetland areas around my house are bone dry. Send some of that 2.58” this way please.

    1. I’m torn also SC. We have only been here Five summers but I’m struggling with what to do with watering. The lawn has never been like this.

  42. Your right Vicki downpours tend to just run off when the ground is this hard and dry. We need a light all day soaking. Unfortunately not in this weather pattern. Just stepped outside humidity is still high about the same as yesterday morning.

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