Monday June 22 2020 Forecast

89 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

Yesterday’s thunderstorm activity fired closer to the coast than I expected and, while still isolated in terms of the entire region, was pretty impactful in the areas that it did impact, especially in terms of road flooding. Unfortunately, heavy rainfall like that does a whole lot of running off and not sinking into the ground to help alleviate developing drought conditions. And even with a few opportunities for additional showers and storms this week, the longer term dry spell will continue. Today begins with an extensive layer of marine air with low clouds over much of the region. Tuesday and Wednesday will also see some marine air to start, with the lower clouds probably confined a little more to coastal locations. These low clouds should burn away each day today and Tuesday but a coastal sea breeze will exist both days as well. During each afternoon today and Tuesday, a few pop up showers and thunderstorms may occur, mostly over interior locations. When we get to Wednesday, with high humidity in place and a cold front arriving from the west, that will be our best chance at a little more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, with timing of the front playing a roll in both coverage of rainfall and intensity of storms. A couple days to fine-tune that. Drier air arrives behind this front for Thursday, but a small disturbance may bring another round of showers to the region for Friday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then becoming partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring areas away from the coast. Humid. Highs 73-80 coast, 80-88 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy start for some locations, otherwise partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon over inland locations. Humid. Highs 77-84 coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the afternoon. Humid. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A little less humid. Highs 80-88. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Warm front / cold front combo may bring some unsettled weather during the June 27-28 weekend. Next front brings a shower/thunderstorm risk around June 30. Upper low may trigger a few more storms around July 1. Temperatures variable, averaging slightly above normal, but may drop a little below normal at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

Zonal flow (from the west, northwest at times). This is a dry pattern overall, but fast-moving disturbance can bring shower and thunderstorm risks.

89 thoughts on “Monday June 22 2020 Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK and SAK !

    Yesterday’s thunderstorms were fun to watch evolve.

    I wonder what Logan’s high temp might be today ? I think you are wise, TK, to have gone 73-80F at the coast. I think the lower end of that range might do it for Logan.

    1. If the wind stays NE at Logan, then you’re right.
      If it turns SE, then Logan could easily top 80.
      yesterday Logan made 87 as wind kept flipping all over
      from ESE to SSE.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK. Wind NE this morning with completely overcast skies with low clouds off of the ocean.
    Feels much more comfortable this morning compared
    to the last few mornings. We shall see what the rest of the day
    brings.

  5. This is from the NWS this moring.

    Better chances of pop-up storms
    appear to be further inland, perhaps west of I-495 corridor
    thanks to more low clouds from the meandering offshore closed
    off upper low. However, if there are more sun than clouds, the
    threat of isolated thunderstorms and perhaps localized flooding
    from urban poor drainage could yet again stretch to the I-95
    corridor in Eastern MA and RI, including the city of Boston.

    We shall see.

    So far, nice and comfortable here. Don’t even see any breaks in the overcast just yet. Watching. We are at 70 while Logan is at
    64. Boston Buoy water temperature is currently at 65,7 Degrees.

      1. Indeed. It has been a pretty rough stretch, even though
        it has not been nearly as bad as it could get.

  6. Thank you TK!
    Sun just starting to poke through here. The mercury should respond quickly. I know it’s been said recently, but it’s remarkable to have this type of airmass for days without hardly any haze, very unusual but the lack of haze is nice because it allows you to see the structure of the billowing cumulonimbus clouds that’s so hard to see with a ton of haze.

  9. Interesting….it is nearly 10 AM and STILL only 64 at the airport.
    Far cry from yesterday.

    Ahh crap. I see blue sky and the sun is coming out in between.

    2. Great loop ! Can see how Worcester hills has thicker low clouds as light NE wind rises up just a bit.

      Have to think convection is west of low cloud band. Even though eastern mass likely to see clouds burn off, best heating is out west, where it’s already 85F +.

      Eastern areas may get high temps of day 5-8 pm this evening.

  15. Off weather topic: I don’t know whether this goes here or in the COVID blog but…

    JPD/Joshua…Do your neighborhoods have lots of fireworks going off all night long? In my neighborhood (Dorchester) they go from just prior to sunset to well after sunrise. It is getting really sickening!!!

  19. I see broken low clouds rolling in from the ocean beneath
    broken mid-level clouds with a fair amount of sunshine
    peeking through. Temp up to 78 here, while it is still 69 at the
    airport.

  22. From what I can see, the high res models have not even picked up
    on the current convection. Go Figure.

  24. Nice and sunny here with clouds but also blue sky as well. I hope we can stay dry until Wednesday.

  25. Wow Vicki talk about a big difference in conditions about 15. – 20 miles away. I’ve been in the sun since 9:00 and the temp is 85 but the dew point is just soup here at 73. There are some large towering cumulus clouds just to my west. I think I may be in on some heavy rain action today. Actually just checked radar and there is a storm popping about 10 miles to my west near Holland.

    1. I’m just seeing some blue and the sun also just broke through when I was on deck with grandson.

      There is also a little cell dancing around SW of southbridge in CT that MAY head this way. I just had a lightning message for 30 miles away

  26. WBZ radio does it again…

    “Wednesday: Flooding downpours from intense thunderstorms.” (Direct quote, radio anchor.)

    I am going to email the station and ask them to refrain from having the anchors paraphrase the forecast.

    That is very poor choice of wording for a day three forecast for the entire region.

      1. I understand what’s going on there. If you have people who may be very good at delivering news, but not quite understanding how to specifically word weather, they are used to keying on big words, and it’s going to cause trouble. Are flooding downpours and intense thunderstorms possible on Wednesday? Yes, indeed they are. But they are going to be the exception. The way it was worded, it made it sound like a widespread definite. That needs to be avoided.

    1. SPC is not known for their accuracy regarding New England. Just ask SAK and other mets about that one. We’ve had to “adjust” their forecasts in our various jobs over the years, many many times.

      1. And you guys do very well at just that.
        It cracks me up that the SPC could be so wrong.
        Perhaps they should have and SPC – East division. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. I’ve always thought that might be a good practice, or just add the staffing from SPC into regional offices to let them handle it that way? Not sure if that would work.

  28. Storms just pulsed just a few miles to my west. I could here the thunder, but that was all. They did not move at all and then rained themselves out. RATS! I was hoping for a little bit of rain out of these. Soooo close but yet so far.

    2. I took a 40 min nap but asked daughter to wake me when she heard thunder and was shocked when I woke up and poof.

        1. We have been all blue for several hours now.
          My sensor is reading 81, but it is in the sun, so I suspect
          it is 77 or 78 here. 68 at Logan

    1. It’s on Netflix, if I didn’t say. I have watched it twice and will
      watch it again. I absolutely loved that film. Too bad it is dubbed, but in this particular film, they did a decent job so it isn’t even
      annoying. I hope you enjoy it.

  32. Was just out doing the trash. Very nice Easterly breeze with blue skies overhead. My built in body thermometer says that
    it is somewhere close to 80, like 78-81 (My Davis Equiment, partially in the sun at this hour, is reading 81) Somewhere in there. CLEARLY NOT the fakakta 68 at the airport.

    1. Wow. I love these images.

      Storm still dancing in same place even though warning has been lifted.

  35. Set up here in Plymouth on a campground and we have a nice cool breeze.

    Wonder if the breeze will come around for a warmer, late evening ??

  36. SAK, if you’re watching, you called it! Subtropical Depression 4. The 3rd of 4 pretty much completely non-tropical systems getting recognized because they have “thunderstorms near the center” which pretty much happens in every winter storm too. Wow. They are hell bent on verifying the forecast this year aren’t they? It should be named by the next advisory, and then we’ll have 4 storms instead of the 1 that we should have, the 1 that was actually tropical (for a few minutes anyway). 😉

    1. Just further reinforcing my point that we’re going to go through the entire name list and the Greek Alphabet. Like I said, I expect “Tropical Storm” Lambda to brush the Cape with 70 mph winds in late December while 6-12 inches of snow falls on the Boston area. As long as they can detect lightning in the warm sector, they’ll call it at least subtropical if its over water.

      These guys write better comedy than the ones who write half of the TV shows out there.

      1. Yup. Remember when NHC actually used to be an honest, believable source of info? I can only imagine what Neil Frank & John Hope would be thinking right now…….

        1. It’s under an upper-level low! It’s probably cold core. My god, has anyone down there ever taken a course in tropical meteorology?

  37. This is what I sent to WBZ radio this afternoon…

    “I’ve been a big fan of the station for many years and listen frequently, but sometimes I have an issue with the news anchors summarizing the weather forecasts as a preview. Being a meteorologist, I’m sensitive to wording that can mislead listeners / viewers / readers. Today, for example, the anchor said “flooding downpours from intense thunderstorms” regarding Wednesday’s forecast. The problem with this wording is that it makes it seem like it’s a guarantee for the entire area, where in reality there is only a chance that a few isolated or scattered locations see some brief flooding from some of the heavier storms that may occur. Even the term “intense” is definitely an overstatement, especially a couple days in advance. I’d love for you to consider rethinking that, or even having the weather forecasting team (be it AccuWeather or from WBZ TV) provide a couple headlines the anchors can read as teasers. I understand the process of wanting to keep the listener interested in what’s coming, but am also a firm believer that hyped up wording can be very misleading. I hope you will consider this request. Thank you very much for your time. 🙂 “

      1. IF they reply. I don’t expect anything more than a generic reply, but we’ll see. Maybe I’ll be surprised. But since they are owned by iHeart, I don’t expect much. 😉

  38. Hottest day of the year today with day 4 of 90 plus hitting 95 this afternoon, as the dew point dropped into the 50s.

    SAK brought up the point of dry ground enchanching temps and it sure has the last 2 days here by probably 3 degrees over what would be reasonable forecast temps.

    We have had 1.6″ of rain here since May 1 about 1.3″ of which fell over a total of 2 hours of rain over 4 seperate days. Wash off down pours.

    Also – totally cold core.

          1. Nothing yet in JP, although the temperature is really
            dropping. Can see low cloud deck off to the East, but not here yet and not overhead yet.

  40. Looks like Rob Manfred will be setting the number of games for MLB this season. Players rejected the latest proposal 33-5 vote.

  41. Just reading a column on USA Today from Bob Nightengale it looks like Manfred will implement a 60 game season starting July 27th -29th.
    This tweet from Reds Pitcher Trevor Bauer says it all
    It’s absolute death for this industry to keep acting as it has been. Both sides. We’re driving the bus straight off a cliff. How is this good for anyone involved? Covid 19 already presented a lose lose lose situation and we’ve somehow found a way to make it worse. Incredible.

    1. Absolutely excellent blog backed up by solid meteorological knowledge and facts!

      The NHC should be ashamed of themselves.

  44. I too am surprised the NHC classified that system. I agree with TK, SAK, and JMA – it’s a cold core low.

    It’s important to understand that low pressure systems exist across a continuum. Few things in the atmosphere are black and white, and this subject is no exception. The NHC’s job in terms of classifying systems is not especially easy, but this seems like shooting themselves in the foot. Even the nebulous moniker “sub-tropical” is likely too generous for this system. Not to mention it’s moving harmlessly out to sea and into even colder waters.

    In terms of the inner workings of the NHC… I don’t have any firsthand experience, but many of the operational forecasters there (who issue the forecasts/write the advisories) have been there for a long time. There hasn’t been a big upheaval in personnel in the past 5 years. So from that perspective I can’t say why we’re seeing so much of this now as opposed to before. But I am frustrated. Of the 4 systems this year, Arthur was marginal at best, Bertha was a joke, and Cristobal was tropical for awhile but maybe not at landfall. And now this one, which is definitely the worst of the bunch. Not good.

    1. The 1st line of the 11pm discussion says it all:

      “The cyclone has little or no deep convection near its center, and remains situated beneath an upper-level low.”

      That is THE definition of an extratropical cyclone.

      1. I just saw that. That almost seems like a passive aggressive attempt by a forecaster who disagreed with the original decision to subtly point out how clearly non-tropical this system is. Definitely got a little chuckle out of it.

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